How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_MonkeyKing]

14 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Flanking the the Russians out of Robtyne would be pretty significant.

I don't know how taking this green could be significant in any way.

This is something I would have expected to fall within the first days or hours of the counter-attack if I was asked a couple of months ago

[kluge]

Quote

Ukraine may buy two Russian nuclear reactors from Bulgaria – WSJ

Ukrainska Pravda

Thu, July 6, 2023 at 7:37 AM PDT·2 min read

 

Ukraine is close to reaching an agreement with Bulgaria about the purchase of two Russian-made nuclear reactors and other critical energy equipment.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, referring to the officials familiar with the situation, as European Pravda reported

Details: The negotiations concerning the agreement are ongoing. According to the agreement, the Bulgarian state-owned energy company NEK will sell the equipment worth at least €600 million from the unfinished Belene NPP to the Ukrainian state nuclear company Energoatom.

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/ukraine-may-buy-two-russian-143710671.html

Can't help but wonder if this is somehow related to the recent uptick in posturing over ZNPP.

[cesmonkey]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-expected-provide-cluster-munitions-ukraine-nyt-2023-07-06/

"In the aid package, which is expected to be well above $500 million in value, Ukraine will receive munitions for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), Bradley fighting vehicles and Stryker armored personnel carriers, one of the officials said."

Seems this is happening for sure now.

 

Question about cluster weapons: Doctrinally how would the US have treated areas hit by DPICM or other cluster weapons? Or how was it done in the gulf war? Would US forces operate and maneuver normally in these areas?

I suspect the dud are nowhere near as dangerous as mines...

In today's Pentagon press conference, the spokesman said that they have nothing to announce with respect to providing DPICMs at this time, but that any DPICMs they would consider sending to Ukraine would be those with recent testing data showing they have dude rates less than 2.35%.

So it "sounds like" it's a done deal.

[FancyCat]

Quote

As @JeffSchogol points out, Congress prohibits the sale or transfer of cluster munitions to any nation if the dud rate is above 1%

 

[Fenris]

I tend to agree re Robotyne.

Sure pushing RU out of anywhere in that area is great but it's pretty obvious UKR is biding it's time.  We haven't seen any more losses of heavy equipment, it's all infantry with arty and the odd T series lending a hand doing local attacks, which is working just fine for what they are.

Unless something significant happens I reckon the main blow will come somewhere else that is less fortified. I don't think UKR want to burn through their gear forcing the issue through Tokmak at this stage.

 

 

Edited July 6, 2023 by Fenris

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Fenris said:

I tend to agree re Robotyne.

Sure pushing RU out of anywhere in that area is great but it's pretty obvious UKR is biding it's time.  We haven't seen any more losses of heavy equipment, it's all infantry with arty and the odd T series lending a hand doing local attacks, which is working just fine for what they are.

Unless something significant happens I reckon the main blow will come somewhere else that is less fortified. I don't think UKR want to burn through their gear forcing the issue through Tokmak at this stage.

 

 

The issue is does the Ukrainian push at Robotyne force the the Russians to commit reserves? Per Kinophiles EXCELLENT post a day or three ago Ukraine might punch five or ten holes in various places that the Russians manage to fill before they just run out of people to fill them with. 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Question about cluster weapons: Doctrinally how would the US have treated areas hit by DPICM or other cluster weapons? Or how was it done in the gulf war? Would US forces operate and maneuver normally in these areas?

I can recall one documented use of DPICM during the exploitation phase of Operation Iraqi Freedom  in 2003.  Intel said a major Iraqi armored force was coming south to engage US forces in the flank.  They had to pass through a narrow terrain gap so they popped off a whole bunch of DPICM to slow them down.  The Iraqi attack never happened and the pass was then denied to US forces due to all those mines not having any loyalty to their makers! 

I forget where this happened but I remember it because after the war it was cited as a reason to reconsider using DPICM except under extreme circumstances.  In this case the US forces did nothing but limit their options.  They had other options, such as waiting for the attack to develop and then hitting it with 155s and/or some airstrikes.  Given the performance of Iraqi forces it likely would have broken up the attack.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

32 minutes ago, Fenris said:

I tend to agree re Robotyne.

Sure pushing RU out of anywhere in that area is great but it's pretty obvious UKR is biding it's time.  We haven't seen any more losses of heavy equipment, it's all infantry with arty and the odd T series lending a hand doing local attacks, which is working just fine for what they are.

Unless something significant happens I reckon the main blow will come somewhere else that is less fortified. I don't think UKR want to burn through their gear forcing the issue through Tokmak at this stage.

 

 

Agreed.  Robotyne itself doesn't seem to have much impact for either side as the Russian flanking forces are not compromised, it doesn't seem to have much in the way of terrain significance. and there's a crudload more defenses southward on the way to Tokmak.

Steve

[Carolus]

Claimed to be a Bradley launched TOW in action.

The display is not Cyrillic or Arabic, so it's safe to say it's not Stugna (this is the limit of my OSINT).

 

[FancyCat]

Can't remember if posted or not. Posting again a thread from General Hertling, omitted a few tweets from the quote.

If the U.S sends only the 1% dud rate cluster munitions, that would be the best thing possible.

Quote

My @cnn colleagues @NatashaBertrand & @jimsciutto are reporting on the "cluster munition' decision that seems to be at a critical point.  They go by many names: -"Cluster munitions."   -DP-ICM (Dual-Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions). -"Steel Rain."  Here's a on them. 1/

I'll start by saying this: Approval will be a tough call for the Biden Administration.  I can understand that.   It's because I have a bit of history w/ these weapons, from Desert Storm.  I'm mentioned in this article. 2/

A War Story.  In Desert Storm, our Cavalry Squadron had the advance guard mission for @1stArmoredDiv.  10km in forward of the Division, Bradleys across a 20km front.  We'd been constantly moving for 3 days.   A few fights with rogue Iraqi units. Taking lots of prisoners.  3/

Our mission was to find Iraqi Republican Guards - the Medina & Tawakana Divisions- & then pass the fight to the @1stArmoredDiv Tank Brigades to fight.  We found them at 0130 on 27 Feb 1991.  Soon, I was outside my Bradley coordinating w/ the tank battalion Ops Officer. 4/

It was rainy & dark. We both heard 5 "pops" overhead.    5 DP-ICM artillery rounds had opened over us, but we didn't know what it was.  Each round had between 72-88 "bomblets."  In seconds, it was like we were inside a popcorn popper, with small bomblets landing around us. 5/

Several vehicles were hit.  My Bradley sustained damaged to the TOW launcher & radio antennas.  HMWWVs were penetrated; 1 had anti-tank weapons inside that exploded.    31 soldiers hit w/ shrapnel, two were seriously injured.   Unexploded bomblets were all around. 6/

All happened in seconds.  We got the hell out of there. On leaving we ran over bomblets...more damage.  The unexploded bomblets -small grenades- remained.  There's a 6-105 dud rate.  With all the rounds fired in Desert Storm, thousands of grenades littered the country. 7/

There's more.  DP-ICM fired from HIMARS/MLRS have between 518-644 bomblets in EACH missile...much more than the 155 arty rounds.  6 rockets in each HIMAR "spill" would drop 3800+ bomblets, over a wide area. With a 5% dud rate, that's 190 "grenades" remaining for each strike. 8/

Commanders who plan & incorporate these arty/rocket attacks with cluster munitions come to understand their forces are constrained from maneuvering through the areas, due to unexploded munitions and troop safety issues.   The US learned the hard way. 9/

There's also long-term threat to civilians.  Russia has been using cluster munitions in the Donbas since 2014.  So has Ukraine.    1000s of Ukrainian civilians & 100s of children have been harmed from unexploded munitions in the Donbas since 2014. 10/

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

They had other options, such as waiting for the attack to develop and then hitting it with 155s and/or some airstrikes.  Given the performance of Iraqi forces it likely would have broken up the attack.

The key part of this statement "they had other options". I am quite sure if if given the the choice between the full weight of the USAF and cluster munitions Ukraine would pick the USAF. Since that doesn't seem to be on offer, they will most certainly take the DPICM.

[JonS]

False dichotomy is false.

[cesmonkey]

This one says "four sources tell us"

 

[Teufel]

8 hours ago, kraze said:

because when a russian, who himself was a part of the problem due to being an oligarch, supports another russian, who is a war criminal responsible for horrible warcrimes without count and who is uprising because Ukrainians aren't being killed effectively enough - means that that russian is perfectly fine with the war, warcrimes and he isn't ok only with putin because they had a falling out at some point in the past. Not even a big one seeing as how Khodorkovsky is alive.

Khodorkovsky supported the immediate "regime change", which would possibly have led to a more "effective" war on a russian part. And this is exactly what makes him no better than putin or prig or whoever else. Or did you somehow think Prig winning was a better deal? Or that it was an "anti-war" coup?

I don’t necessarily need to agree with someone’s opinions to pro-actively listen to what that person has to say. You may have such needs but I don’t. Not judging or assuming anything about your abilities to put your feelings aside and listen to what’s said without emotional involvement. For me that’s very important aspect of avoiding confirmation bias and I will listen to others regardless who they are. That person being you, Prigozjin, Biden, Putin, Steve, or anybody else don’t matter. Will hear you out but I don’t need to agree with you, I don’t need to sympathize with you, nor do I need to like you.

Does anybody here like Prigozjin as person, his opinions, his actions, etc.? I don’t think so but if anyone does that’d make for an interesting discussion. The short answer to you question about my sympathies is plain “no”. I am not that one person who thinks Prigozjin is better than Putin, they are both criminals.

Does that make them useless as sources of information? No, Prigozjin can be quite interesting to listen to. So is Khodorkovsky as well as Kasparov. This for me raises the question, would you react differently had I used Kasparov as reference over Khodorkovsky? Same message - Putin is simple criminal who can only think and act like a criminal.

Will be honest with you and say if the answer is yes, then we have problems with confirmation bias. Kasparov is an intellectual, Khodorkovsky is a criminal. Would that matter for offering insights about Putins line of reasoning? For me it does not and I’d even go as far as saying that the reasoning that Khodorkovsky offers is interesting - for the simple fact that he may be a criminal himself. Don’t the Americans say “it takes one to know one”?

Edited July 6, 2023 by Teufel

[FancyCat]

 

Quote

Paul McLeary over at Politico reporting that the US intends to send “almost certainly over 100,000 DPICM [rounds]” to Ukraine in a new aid package.

 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I can recall one documented use of DPICM during the exploitation phase of Operation Iraqi Freedom  in 2003.  Intel said a major Iraqi armored force was coming south to engage US forces in the flank.  They had to pass through a narrow terrain gap so they popped off a whole bunch of DPICM to slow them down.  The Iraqi attack never happened and the pass was then denied to US forces due to all those mines not having any loyalty to their makers! 

I forget where this happened but I remember it because after the war it was cited as a reason to reconsider using DPICM except under extreme circumstances.  In this case the US forces did nothing but limit their options.  They had other options, such as waiting for the attack to develop and then hitting it with 155s and/or some airstrikes.  Given the performance of Iraqi forces it likely would have broken up the attack.

Steve

That sounds more like FASCAM, not DPICM.  DPICM from the old days had some pretty bad dud rates but that are not going to stop armor/mech based on duds alone.  Newer stuff is designed for much better dud rates, likely an order of magnitude better than whatever the RA is lobbing around.  I think we went around the tree a few times on this subject before.  DPICM are not a great solution but they are a solution.  They are also legal under the CCW and US and Ukrainian law.

So while quite a few people are not going to like it, this is all above board.  Mitigation is very careful record keeping of where those DPICM shoots are occurring.  DPICM is much better at killing mechanized forces but that does not seem to be the main threat in this war.  Not sure how they will fair against dug in troops. Although I suspect this may have more to do with ammo shortages.  Once again this will not sweep the RA off the field but it may make up for ammo production shortfalls in supplying Ukraine - which may have gotten quite bad to take on this hot potato. 

[Battlefront.com]

34 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

That sounds more like FASCAM, not DPICM.  

Damn!  I forgot about the difference.  Yes, FASCAM.  Anyway, the point I made is exactly the same... the US military examined this situation after the war and concluded they needed a rethink on how and when to use them.  They wound up limiting their options for what turned out to be no good reason.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

The key part of this statement "they had other options". I am quite sure if if given the the choice between the full weight of the USAF and cluster munitions Ukraine would pick the USAF. Since that doesn't seem to be on offer, they will most certainly take the DPICM.

Yes, which is why I support giving Ukraine access to such weapons.  Who are we to tell them what they can or can not do on their own territory while fighting against a genocidal enemy?  But my point was directed at the broader discussion about their limitations and why the US doesn't think of FASCAM as a universal "go to" weapon of choice.  It can really fook up one's own plans.

Steve

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Damn!  I forgot about the difference.  Yes, FASCAM.  Anyway, the point I made is exactly the same... the US military examined this situation after the war and concluded they needed a rethink on how and when to use them.  They wound up limiting their options for what turned out to be no good reason.

Steve

I would point out that lobbing the German 155mm version of FASCAM into what the Russians thought were cleared lanes is how the Ukrainians smashed the Russians's many attempts to take Vuelhedar into smoking wreckage.

Edit: The Russians seem to be doing it to the Ukrainians, too. And regarding crossposting above there is a big difference between tricky to use, and useless. FASCAM, and to a lesser extent DPICM are tricky, they are far from useless.

Edited July 7, 2023 by dan/california

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Who are we to tell them what they can or can not do on their own territory while fighting against a genocidal enemy?

We are people with opinions, experience, and knowledge? Also, I hate to break this to you, but no one in this thread is talking to the Ukrainian Govt, let alone telling them what to do. We talking to each other, and in this specific case we're trading opinions.

In my opinion, DPICM is primarily a defensive weapon which can be effective in certain circumstances. In my opionion it was developed at a time when neither precision artillery nor precision air-to-ground weapons were serious propositions, and so a (largely successful) effort was made to smear-out out the payload of rounds across the target area to increase the likelihood of achieving some effect. In my opinion the relative utility of DPICM has declined with the advent of of PGMs, and while the dud rate might be better now for routine targets the risk/reward calculus doesn't justify it when there are other better options available.

Would my opinion see more friendly combat casualties? Maybe, although that would be very hard to prove either way (and don't forget to count the EOD guys who have a bad day). Would my opinion lead to fewer children and civilian deaths and injuries? I think that's pretty clearly a yes.

Am I comfortable trading soldiers for civilians? Of course yes. That's the /point/.

 

Edited July 7, 2023 by JonS

[The_Capt]

15 minutes ago, JonS said:

We are people with opinions, experience, and knowledge? Also, I hate to break this to you, but no one in this thread is talking to the Ukrainian Govt, let alone telling them what to do. We talking to each other, and in this specific case we're trading opinions.

In my opinion, DPICM is primarily a defensive weapon which can be effective in certain circumstances. In my opionion it was developed at a time when neither precision artillery nor precision air-to-ground weapons were serious propositions, and so a (largely successful) effort was made to smear-out out the payload of rounds across the target area to increase the likelihood of achieving some effect. In my opinion the relative utility of DPICM has declined with the advent of of PGMs, and while the dud rate might be better now for routine targets the risk/reward calculus doesn't justify it when there are other better options available.

Would my opinion see more friendly combat casualties? Maybe, although that would be very hard to prove either way (and don't forget to count the EOD guys who have a bad day). Would my opinion lead to fewer children and civilian deaths and injuries? I think that's pretty clearly a yes.

Am I comfortable trading soldiers? Of course yes. That's the /point/.

 

A solid point on PGM.  DPICM was really a better way to distribute lethality before PGM.  With PGM a few rounds can do the damage of many dumb, even DPICM.  However, what we do not know is the ammo situation of PGM in this war, nor that of dumb rounds either.  I doubt this decision ( if it is indeed not just a rumour) was taken on a whim “Oh hey, that’s right we got all those DPICM rounds” *slaps forehead*.  I suspect that this decision is an offset to another development, shortfalls in PGM ammo most likely.

So What?  Well the calculus is clearly between bad and worse, and they have gone with bad.  The terrain in the break in battle is already highly contaminated so this is fairly incremental risk at this point - I.e. happy rose cheeked Ukrainian children will not be frolicking in these fields for about a century regardless of UA DPICM or not.  So in order to keep the momentum of the grinding a hard decision was made…and here we are.

One thing this war has demonstrated is that when facing the harsh realities of long duration high intensity conventional warfare a lot of idealistic and aspirational ideas we had before the war have become strained.  The “quick clean weekend war” was the first one.  Facing existential conflict the dirty fact is that every nation on earth will likely abandon principles for interests and survival given enough pressure.  War is once again a race to the bottom.  Something to keep in mind on the whole unmanned debate. 

 

[JonS]

33 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

However, what we do not know is the ammo situation of PGM in this war, nor that of dumb rounds either.

Correct. And if that's the case (ie, there's just not enough of the other stuff), then my opinion would change, while noting the moral hazard/slippery slope of "eh, we have these now, so let's just use them."

Edited July 7, 2023 by JonS

[dan/california]

 

Darth Putin

 

@DarthPutinKGB

 

I condem Ukraine's use of cluster munitions so much i refuse to sign Russia up to the treaty banning their use and have been using them in the Donbas since 2014.

[FancyCat]

I dunno if he's a idiot or smart enough to realize he's getting killed in Belarus sooner or later and it's best not to take the deal and beg for Putin to forgive him and Wagner.

Quote

Tweet 1: Lukashenko confirms that Prigozhin is currently in St Petersburg, not in Berlarus,  and that Wagner troops remain in their permanent camps in occupied Ukraine (Luhansk oblast)  Doesn’t look like any moves to Belarus are imminent for either

Tweet 2: Prigozhin is clearly working on getting Putin to forgive him and convince him (via surrogates) that he was never disloyal. 'Perhaps I overracted a tad. Got overly excited from all the action at the front. Never meant this to be viewed as a challenge to you and your power’

 

[FancyCat]

Good point.

Quote

If the Russian leadership wasn't an acolyte of the cult of political violence, it would never bomb the western cities of Ukraine (after the failed attempt of shock & awe at the beginning of the invasion) because it would create or deepen a division in Ukrainian society.

One part of the country would be safe, the other in constant danger. Atop of already existing historic and cultural differences, it is in the human nature to strive for safety and the political pressure on the Ukrainian leadership would mount in order to make concessions.

But the Russian leadership is thuggish. It prefers to sow fear through blunt force, waiting for the object of suffering to break under the weight of pain. Thus, Russia inflicts punishment on all of Ukraine, with the intent that the entire country should feel threatened and yield.

This has had an opposite effect. It has brought Ukraine together, since all regions feel threatened and under attack, they will all contribute to the war effort, they would all feel that this is their war and not someone else's far away to the east.

This shows the nature of Russia's regime, more than it shows its incompetence to choose the right strategy. If you believe in violence as the paramount and ultimate political instrument, then your strategy is predetermined.