How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[BlackMoria]

At this point in time, I give it a 90% chance the US defaults and the train called the economy goes over the cliff.   It should not have come to this but here we are...standing at the cliff's edge and that train is coming awfully fast and it doesn't look like going to even attempt to put on the brakes.  And if it goes over the cliff....what does this all mean for Western support for Ukraine?   That is the question haunting me right now.

 

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

At this point in time, I give it a 90% chance the US defaults and the train called the economy goes over the cliff.   It should not have come to this but here we are...standing at the cliff's edge and that train is coming awfully fast and it doesn't look like going to even attempt to put on the brakes.  And if it goes over the cliff....what does this all mean for Western support for Ukraine?   That is the question haunting me right now.

 

Somehow that reminds me of 2013. Im pretty sure a solution will be found.

Obama pulls out stops in warning on debt default | Reuters

[Kraft]

41 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

The US is going to have to pay the piper, itself, some  day for the past 75 years operating beyond its means playing 'global superpower', the same way Great Britain paid the price 75 years ago for its own previous century of global ambitions. Heck, that day may be closer than we think if the US is fool enough to default on its sovereign debt. Its a bad negotiating tactic  to threaten to shoot the hostage when you're holding yourself hostage.

Debt has very little to do with "75 years operating beyond its means playing 'global superpower'".

Vast majority of it has come with the last 3 presidents, so from 2009 onwards, which mostly saw a downscaling of outside commitment.

 

 

Edited May 27, 2023 by Kraft

[Fenris]

2 hours ago, DesertFox said:

Wasn´t aware that these babies are still around? 4 days ago at RAF Fairford.

 

Man she's an ugly aircraft.  Reminds me somehow of those freaky critters at the bottom of the ocean.

Better they're out of sight   

[kevinkin]

48 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

I give it a 90% chance the US defaults and the train called the economy goes over the cliff.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59160

Don't jump out the window yet. Interesting read. Maybe it's "stop the presses" for a few weeks. But no party is willing to take the blame on third rail issues. Like no party wants to take the blame on Ukraine being overrun either. Almost a third rail issue, but not like suspending US entitlement benefits. Not happening. 

If the Treasury’s cash and extraordinary measures are sufficient to finance the government until June 15, expected quarterly tax receipts and additional extraordinary measures will probably allow the government to continue financing operations through at least the end of July.

No one wants to ruin 4th of July. 

 

[Offshoot]

The Ukrainians have been testing the Leopard 2A6 and firing against T-62s hulks. Not much info but you can see the sort of holes armour piercing rounds make - https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-leopard-2a6-tested-on-t-62-tanks/

 

The Russians have been trying out disposable wooden fixed wing drones. Some discussion about their uses and capabilities - https://mil.in.ua/en/news/volunteers-discussed-the-features-of-wooden-drones-used-by-the-russian-federation/

[sburke]

27 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

No one wants to ruin 4th of July. 

better not, it is my freakin birthday!

[dan/california]

24 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

The Russians have been trying out disposable wooden fixed wing drones. Some discussion about their uses and capabilities - https://mil.in.ua/en/news/volunteers-discussed-the-features-of-wooden-drones-used-by-the-russian-federation/

Quote

The approximate cost of such a drone is USD 2.5-3 thousand.

This is the important bit. if they have any utility to speak of they are cheap enough to just flood the zone with them. A very basic home on jam guidance and a 40 mm grenade would be bleeping irritating if someone launched a thousand of them. They say they have several hundred kilometers range. That would equate to quite a while flying circles waiting for something that cost a LOT more to start emitting.

[chuckdyke]

Probably on the wrong place with this one. Tank Chats about the T14 Armata.

 

[Peregrine]

2 hours ago, Fenris said:

Man she's an ugly aircraft.  Reminds me somehow of those freaky critters at the bottom of the ocean.

Better they're out of sight   

It is like a dolphin cross-bred with a narwhal then wrapped itself in RAM for halloween.

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, BlackMoria said:

At this point in time, I give it a 90% chance the US defaults and the train called the economy goes over the cliff.   It should not have come to this but here we are...standing at the cliff's edge and that train is coming awfully fast and it doesn't look like going to even attempt to put on the brakes.  And if it goes over the cliff....what does this all mean for Western support for Ukraine?   That is the question haunting me right now.

 

What are the stakes? A good six pack of hazy IPA work? Because it's at worst a 70/30 that a deal is made.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/urban-warfare-project/id1490714950?i=1000614583227

 

Artillery in the Urban environment, by two serving U.S. officers who have observed Ukraine as closely as is possible without resigning and joining the Ukrainian military. My nominee for podcast of the year. If anybody has a handy way to do voice to text it would be worth the time.

Edited May 27, 2023 by dan/california

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/12/russia-ukraine-war-crimes-genocide-appeasement-mearsheimer-putin/

This is also very good, and wasn't behind a paywall, at least for me.The short version is pretty much The_Capt's post earlier today "empires built on skulls and ashes", but this is an excellent long form version. Also consider this a formal statement that I am stealing that quote from The_Capt, it is brilliant.

[kevinkin]

Sorry hard to keep up and this could be old news:

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023/05/25/russia-signs-deal-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-belarus.html

 

[kimbosbread]

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Oh well that is a relief and here I thought we had challenges.

https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2023/04/04/the-de-dollarization-of-world-economy-xi-putin-agreement-saudi-arabias-shift-to-yuan/

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-brics-expansion-membership/

And dependencies:

https://www.china-briefing.com/news/us-china-trade-in-goods-hits-new-record-in-2022-what-does-it-mean-for-bilateral-ties/

And really glad to hear India is going  no where:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/williampesek/2023/04/20/china-vs-india-worlds-greatest-gdp-race-heats-up/?sh=3ef6b0ec4411

Militarily everything is also just fine:

https://www.rand.org/blog/2021/11/taiwan-is-safe-until-at-least-2027-but-with-one-big.html

And China has no friends:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_relations_of_China

I guess the big reason they have reason to band together is because they are on the outside and the rules do not work for them.  It is a crazy idea but human being do not just sit around and accept their lots in life and leave top dogs in place because reasons or a sky god says so.  They challenge and compete.

Oh and let’s not get started on the rot in our own houses - we are so “bored” that we are tearing each other apart.  In fact this entire war in the Ukraine is a major wake up call on just how distracted we got and how long the wheel was left unattended.  We may wake up in time, or we can go back to all those nice safe assumptions and reality tv.

Dedollarization is a farce. RMB, oh yeah unstable and tied to the real estate bubble to end all bubbles, plus onshore and offshore. If Switzerland started getting uppity and we went all Grande Suisse, sure, I could see the CHF being an option. KSA provides most of China’s oil, and KSA is distinctly unpopular in Washington in recent years, but it doesn’t change much. Who is the world’s biggest energy producer? We’ve set a ceiling on oil prices, and that puts a limit on how uppity OPEC can get.

China produces lots of stuff that we use- that is their big hook for sure. I’ll be the last to dispute that. But that is rapidly changing.

India I’m extremely unconvinced, and every Indian I work with also (even the BJP fans among them). They’ve had an epic water crisis brewing for 20 odd years, and haven’t gotten their act together like Mexico and Egypt did in the 70s (IIRC), are gonna be hurt badly by climate change, and have unstable neighbors. Not to mention the US siphons many of their best people, and their families (one of our superpowers).

Taiwan has a trump card- China has built itself a giant single point of failure that given time will collapse on it’s own due to world-class-awful concrete and rebar issues, not to mention design problems (Greater China Coprosperity Dam). Take that out, and it’s real ugly. Wuhan, Shanghai, a bunch of nuke plants, army bases, agriculture… it’d be 50% of their GDP, no Great Satan involvement needed. Not to mention China is horribly exposed to a blockade of the straights… their war minus option is blockade, but their bet is we miss their production, and they forget who the most warlike country of all time is. Blockade would be the ideal scenario for the US- we wouldn’t have to expose any surface ships at all within “real” missle range. Obviously China owns the canal, but that can be reversed nicely. They probably want food from Brazil more than we care about the canal being blocked.

China has zero useful friends. The US has Japan and UK as #1 friends. Two other extremely warlike countries with capable militaries. And the US’ other friends are reasonably capable too.

The hubub around rot in the US is pleasant distraction from automation and erosion of the middle class. If the poors weren’t so distracted, they might get angry at stuff like PS (https://reserveps.com), or billionares’ blood boys or even more absurd things. That would be bad. The optimist thinks the glass is half full, the pessimist the glass half empty, and the engineer half as big as it needs to be. What happens when we don’t need a third of existing white collar jobs in a decade?

Ultimately, I think the US is the healthiest of a bunch of very sick men. Maybe once we get past the demographic crunch in 30 years the front runners will start fresh and anew, but I think it’s going to be a series of hard punches to roll with: Climate change, population migrations, water shortages and of course war. Not to mention my personal nightmare- garage crispr terrorists. In the 90s we were all rainbox six eco terrorists, but there’s a realistic possibility in the next 20 years of a bioengineered plaugue that will make every other bad scernario look less bad. Hopefully the people so inclined have better things to do!

[kimbosbread]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

What are the stakes? A good six pack of hazy IPA work? Because it's at worst a 70/30 that a deal is made.

Yeah I’m gonna go 99/1, and I’m a sadist and would the US to default just for entertainment purposes and tell my friends I told you so. Look who organizes and funds the campaigns of various politicians. Sadly, it’s not gonna happen.

EDIT: Claim52 whatever horrible disgusting hipster beershake is available. Their key lime pie beer was awesome; the thai lemongrass jelly donut was the virulent gonnorhea of beers.

Edited May 27, 2023 by kimbosbread

[dan/california]

19 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Sorry hard to keep up and this could be old news:

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2023/05/25/russia-signs-deal-deploy-tactical-nuclear-weapons-belarus.html

 

They have been talking about various aspects of the deal for a year more or less. They do seem to be moving along with at least the speeches and paperwork side of things. I think you need a security clearance to have the slightest idea if they are moving any actual hardware around. It doesn't really change anything, Russia has nukes, launching them from Belarus doesn't really change the return address.

[kevinkin]

8 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Belarus doesn't really change the return address.

I understand exactly what you are saying. But remember the news was full of horror when the Carter Admin was "moving" Tac Nukes "around" in Europe. And also the proximity of Cuba to the US in the crisis. There is something about not wanting to get warm and fuzzy with Tac Nukes among the general public. I have not looked at the range circles. Never mind .. Poland can handle the threat. Just Putin beating his shallow chest. 

[MikeyD]

If someone were to fly a suicide drone into a shelter storing a (future) Belarussian tac nuke mobile launch vehicle that would get people's attention REAL fast. Russians were already panicking earlier in the week because that raid into Russia came distressingly close to an old nuke weapons storage facility which they evacuated in a big hurry. Butting nuclear launchers up against an active war zone is not the most secure thing to do.

[womble]

1 hour ago, kimbosbread said:

there’s a realistic possibility in the next 20 years of a bioengineered plaugue that will make every other bad scernario look less bad.

The bioplague that worries me is when some well-meaning bod creates a broad-spectrum plastic-eating bacterium (or even one that just eats some common type), and it gets out into the wider environment. So much easier to engineer a beast that doesn't need to defeat human immune systems, just float about and find substrate. Wouldn't matter whether it was intentional or not, and I've already seen news articles about research in that direction, because, "Plastic Bad!"

[Pete Wenman]

 

 

[Holien]

3 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

The US has Japan and UK as #1 friends. Two other extremely warlike countries with capable militaries.

Don't count on the UK as a capable military we have serious issues with our finances which have impacted our military. I would suggest America gets closer with Europe who combined have a more capable military than the UK.

[JonS]

11 hours ago, Tux said:

And the USAAF was bombing under more favourable conditions than almost anyone else. 

Curiously, by 1944 the RAF was far more accurate by night than the USAAF was by day.

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

Dedollarization is a farce. RMB, oh yeah unstable and tied to the real estate bubble to end all bubbles, plus onshore and offshore. If Switzerland started getting uppity and we went all Grande Suisse, sure, I could see the CHF being an option. KSA provides most of China’s oil, and KSA is distinctly unpopular in Washington in recent years, but it doesn’t change much. Who is the world’s biggest energy producer? We’ve set a ceiling on oil prices, and that puts a limit on how uppity OPEC can get.

China produces lots of stuff that we use- that is their big hook for sure. I’ll be the last to dispute that. But that is rapidly changing.

India I’m extremely unconvinced, and every Indian I work with also (even the BJP fans among them). They’ve had an epic water crisis brewing for 20 odd years, and haven’t gotten their act together like Mexico and Egypt did in the 70s (IIRC), are gonna be hurt badly by climate change, and have unstable neighbors. Not to mention the US siphons many of their best people, and their families (one of our superpowers).

Taiwan has a trump card- China has built itself a giant single point of failure that given time will collapse on it’s own due to world-class-awful concrete and rebar issues, not to mention design problems (Greater China Coprosperity Dam). Take that out, and it’s real ugly. Wuhan, Shanghai, a bunch of nuke plants, army bases, agriculture… it’d be 50% of their GDP, no Great Satan involvement needed. Not to mention China is horribly exposed to a blockade of the straights… their war minus option is blockade, but their bet is we miss their production, and they forget who the most warlike country of all time is. Blockade would be the ideal scenario for the US- we wouldn’t have to expose any surface ships at all within “real” missle range. Obviously China owns the canal, but that can be reversed nicely. They probably want food from Brazil more than we care about the canal being blocked.

China has zero useful friends. The US has Japan and UK as #1 friends. Two other extremely warlike countries with capable militaries. And the US’ other friends are reasonably capable too.

The hubub around rot in the US is pleasant distraction from automation and erosion of the middle class. If the poors weren’t so distracted, they might get angry at stuff like PS (https://reserveps.com), or billionares’ blood boys or even more absurd things. That would be bad. The optimist thinks the glass is half full, the pessimist the glass half empty, and the engineer half as big as it needs to be. What happens when we don’t need a third of existing white collar jobs in a decade?

Ultimately, I think the US is the healthiest of a bunch of very sick men. Maybe once we get past the demographic crunch in 30 years the front runners will start fresh and anew, but I think it’s going to be a series of hard punches to roll with: Climate change, population migrations, water shortages and of course war. Not to mention my personal nightmare- garage crispr terrorists. In the 90s we were all rainbox six eco terrorists, but there’s a realistic possibility in the next 20 years of a bioengineered plaugue that will make every other bad scernario look less bad. Hopefully the people so inclined have better things to do!

Wow that is a lot of unsupported opinion coming fast and dressed up like facts. Ok, so the game of states is largely irrelevant and bio terrorism is the one you worry about…got it.  Oh and worlds largest energy producer:

https://www.eia.gov/international/rankings/world?pa=12&u=0&f=A&v=none&y=01%2F01%2F2021

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_production#:~:text=China is the world's largest,the United States and India.

https://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/07/the-worlds-largest-energy-producers.html

Oh hey and look who the largest consumer is too:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/263455/primary-energy-consumption-of-selected-countries/#:~:text=China is the largest consumer,such as oil and coal.

Clearly you have this all figured out.  But oddly the US National Security Strategy and Defence Strategies disagree with your position:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf

https://www.csis.org/analysis/new-us-national-defense-strategy-2022

I am going to pull on one thread here: “but their bet is we miss their production, and they forget who the most warlike country of all time is.”

All war is sacrifice - the west went nuts when we asked its citizens to wear masks, I am not confident out sacrifice calculus is higher than Chinas in an upcoming conflict.  

Also most warlike country of all time is not the US, it barely makes a blip in history to be honest - although Jimmy Carter and China both agree with you:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_by_death_toll

The most warlike (a squishy metric) country for scope and scale would likely go to the Mongols.

A heated competition between a China power pole is already happening - everyone in the business of security and defence knows this.  While your “China and India..meh” strategy is noted, I think I will go my assessment for now.

 

 

[TheVulture]

Interrupting the economics debate for a moment...

Looking over all the open source data on the Ivan Khurs:

• Multiple videos and photos from various angles of it returning to Sevastopol with no visible damage
• US satellite images of it being back in its usual berth in Sevastopol
• No claims or evidence from Ukraine or NATO of it being anywhere else
• No video or photos existing of any damage to the ship

I think it is reasonable to conclude at the moment that it didn't suffer any serious externally visible damage and returned to Sevastopol under its own power at a pretty normal speed. 

Possibly it suffered some less obvious equipment damage, but there's no evidence for that.  Russia is saying it will return to sea once it has completed its resupply, which is the reason it returned to port, so I guess the real test so be how long it says docked in Sevastopol.  If it's heading back to the Bosphorus area within a few days,  it's probably mostly fine.  If it stays docked for several weeks,  it's probably having some kind of repairs carried out.