How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

 “Amateurs talk economics, professionals talk parking garages.”

I go to a mall, and it is just a basic drive-in structure that usually works part time as a urinal.  Then I see these.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/china/article-5791007/Chinese-city-unveils-glitzy-automated-parking-lot-TWENTY-SIX-storeys-tall.html

https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/mumbai-gets-underground-parking-in-reliance-jio-garden-51029.html

We are doomed!  Doomed I tell you!

And in true fashion for this forum I have to chime in…I own a parking company and I am a paid expert. That technology is essentially 120 year old hydraulics and not new at all. 

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

I am still having a hard time seeing how Wagner could threaten RU power structure.  Putin surely has plenty of Wagner officers on discrete payroll and would know well in advance of any naughty ideas Prig had.  Would they just drive to Moscow & attack the Kremlin???  Coup kinda requires some level of surprise I would think.  Plus all RU army has to do is not send food & ammo and it's game over pretty quickly.  Wagnerites could live off the land (sacking grocery stores) I suppose for a while.  I would be shocked if Putin let Wagner army anywhere near anything important in RU.

I’m a strong proponent of this view but at the same time it feels like there is some movement going on. Various people are saying things in Russian media that wouldn’t have flown a couple of months ago both defeatist and hysterical. Putin’s position is being questioned. That’s new. I still think the power structures remain mostly intact but I’d be less surprised by a change now.

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, billbindc said:

And in true fashion for this forum I have to chime in…I own a parking company and I am a paid expert. That technology is essentially 120 year old hydraulics and not new at all. 

omfg  a parking garage grog... I should have expected that on this forum.

[Kinophile]

 

[womble]

18 minutes ago, billbindc said:

And in true fashion for this forum I have to chime in…I own a parking company and I am a paid expert. That technology is essentially 120 year old hydraulics and not new at all. 

Indeed. My father worked on the control electronics for one in a major Canadian airport (I think it was; 'twas before my time, and the memories of his mentioning it in passing are fading now) back in the late '60s.

[womble]

Russia's ambassador to the UK spouting bollox

I don't think there's anything useful in there, but he says things that are indubitably true, just not in the way he (or his masters, if he's actually got a grip on reality) wants them to be.

[Centurian52]

12 hours ago, dan/california said:

They have been talking about various aspects of the deal for a year more or less. They do seem to be moving along with at least the speeches and paperwork side of things. I think you need a security clearance to have the slightest idea if they are moving any actual hardware around. It doesn't really change anything, Russia has nukes, launching them from Belarus doesn't really change the return address.

My feeling is that the most significant implication of Russian nukes in Belarus, is that those nukes basically become a tripwire to guarantee that Russian forces intervene in a Belarusian revolution. Of course the Russian forces already training in Belarus were already a tripwire, and I cannot answer the inevitable "what additional forces could they intervene with?". So they may not even be significant in that respect.

[Centurian52]

10 hours ago, Pete Wenman said:

 

 

Well this just has "it's not long now" written all over it. It also has my blood pumping to kill some Russians. I'm gonna go play some CMBS.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

And in true fashion for this forum I have to chime in…I own a parking company and I am a paid expert. That technology is essentially 120 year old hydraulics and not new at all. 

Yet another reason to never F w BillBinDC.  He'll have your car towed.

[billbindc]

4 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

Gosh, I wonder why criminals aren't considered to be desirable recruits in most armies?

Caveat emptor: Sushko is a fabricator.

[sburke]

Russian gunmaker Kalashnikov modifies AK-12 assault rifle based on Ukraine combat experience (yahoo.com)

I was expecting maybe it would come with a white flag or maybe a warning tag that you are bound to be shot if you leave this behind, but nope.

[Harmon Rabb]

This video was all over my Twitter feed today. Originally posted by General Zaluzhnyi's official twitter account.

As a cinema buff I have to say props to whoever edited this video. Very powerful clip.

[Seedorf81]

Vasyl Maljoek, Head of SBU admits involvement in Crimean bridgestrike on october 8th 2022.

"Logistical enemy route we had to cut off", no further details. (DPA newsbureau)

 

[Beleg85]

5 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another incursion into Belgorod?

There are enigmatic suggestions from one of volunteers there is much more under the surface that is going in entire Belgorod thing. Clashes are reported along several settlements, but OpSec is very tight. Meanwhile, artillery is ravaging frontline near Zaprozhia too; Mariuopl and Berdyansk are struck daily. Anyway, we are close.

I think they may try to grill muscovites even several days/week more before attacking in force. We will see how Russians manage to defend the border with forces at hand- they had factor of surprise against them during RVC/FRL attack which is now lost.

Edited May 27, 2023 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

And in true fashion for this forum I have to chime in…I own a parking company and I am a paid expert. That technology is essentially 120 year old hydraulics and not new at all. 

Ok you can poo poo all you like but you have to admit these look pretty slick when stacked up against the urine-soaked hobo corpse ridden parking options we see here in the finest North American offerings.

I mean seriously:

[danfrodo]

Fun stuff here today: Prig & Girkin shootout.  Prig does his best Ludendorf impersonation, calling for total war to hold on to the territory they've 'snatched'.  Bascially stop everything except war efforts and get everyone either mobilized or making ammo.  Good lord, what a rambling nut. 

Meanwhile Girkin calling Prig a threat to RU, which implies he should be taken out of course. 

And the icing on the cake, Taliban attack Iranian border.  Taliban leader thinks that if Tali leaders unleash him that he can take over Iran -- what a flippin' looney.  Yes, I am sure the Shia of Iran want some smelly, bearded, illiterate Sunni from the middle ages lording over them.  They already have smelly, bearded, literate Shia clerics from the middle ages lording over them.  Already the majority of populace, especially the very large young population, wants those clerics dead.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/5/27/2171729/-Ukraine-Update-The-battle-of-the-worst-Russians-thus-begins

 

[FancyCat]

I know conventionally Ukraine will probably not seek to invade Russian territory, but it might be time to consider if Ukraine were to push a limited offensive, what objectives in or near Belgorod would Ukraine want to strike whether it be a offensive to knock it out or push within artillery range to destroy?

a look at the map shows not a lot of valuable real estate along Ukraine’s northern border with Russia until Belgorod. 

[billbindc]

49 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok you can poo poo all you like but you have to admit these look pretty slick when stacked up against the urine-soaked hobo corpse ridden parking options we see here in the finest North American offerings.

I mean seriously:

Oh believe me...there's nothing like a urine soaked hydraulic shoebox in the summer. Urine, machinery heat and sunlight through tempered glass gives you the full sulfuric terrarium experience.

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I know conventionally Ukraine will probably not seek to invade Russian territory, but it might be time to consider if Ukraine were to push a limited offensive, what objectives in or near Belgorod would Ukraine want to strike whether it be a offensive to knock it out or push within artillery range to destroy?

a look at the map shows not a lot of valuable real estate along Ukraine’s northern border with Russia until Belgorod. 

A few months ago I suggested UKR taking a short loop thru RU territory to outflank RU defenses east of Kupyansk.  Prykolatne (UKR) to Valukyi-Aidar-Rovenki (RU), re-cross UKR border heading south toward Starobilsk.  I have no interest in holding RU territory, just was hoping to cross relatively undefended territory to unhinge the bad guys.

 

[FancyCat]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

A few months ago I suggested UKR taking a short loop thru RU territory to outflank RU defenses east of Kupyansk.  Prykolatne (UKR) to Valukyi-Aidar-Rovenki (RU), re-cross UKR border heading south toward Starobilsk.  I have no interest in holding RU territory, just was hoping to cross relatively undefended territory to unhinge the bad guys.

 

 

Supply lines aren’t great, and reinforcements from Belgorod would hit them in the flank no?

 

[JonS]

4 hours ago, Tux said:

Was it ‘just’ OBOE pathfinders and H2S that enabled that or am I forgetting something else?

It was the whole system. It had gotten very good, especially when Harris got distracted enough to let it be, rather than just sticking to "Hulk smash!"

[Kinophile]

Ref Ivan,  things are developing ontheUkr side.  Soon they'll be able to strike from the air,  surface e and subsurface,  simultaneously. 

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/17551

Edited May 27, 2023 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, Seminole said:

Such as the way Serbia ‘provoked’ the NATO intervention in their civil war.  
Or perhaps the Libyan ‘provocations’ that necessitated NATO intervention in their civil war.

NATO would never intervene in a foreign civil war again, right?  Bonkers notion.  Unless maybe it was in essence on their ‘border’?  

Oh good god... I was beginning to enjoy you not going off the rails, but there you go again.

How is ANY of this relevant?  Or are you saying that the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation justified their massive spending on defense because they were planning on having a civil war?

5 hours ago, Seminole said:

I would think Russian leadership could look at the brutal civil war waged in Chechnya and conclude there is a greater than 0.0000000% chance NATO could intervene in a future Russian peripheral separatists conflict, if they had bases reasonably close enough to contribute.  Hence the desire to avoid the development of such bases, and thus render even more remote the possibility. 

Poppycock.  NATO won't have anything to do with Chechya.  Both sides will go full on warcrimes and the Chechens are as anti-Western as Russia is.

5 hours ago, Seminole said:

After Kosovo and Libya you can’t truthfully argue that NATO is a ‘purely defensive’ organization. It’s become a multi-national end run on the UN’s monopoly of force.  That isn’t to argue whether that is itself desirable or not, it’s simply the case.  

The UN is useless, in large part because that is the way Russia and China want it to be.  There should be an alternative to doing nothing, even if flawed.  Kosovo worked out pretty well, Libya not so much.

Now, the last time you dragged this up I (and others) put you on the spot about Kosovo.  I directly stated you were dodging, you said you weren't and asked why I thought that.  I requoted what you were dodging and gave you a carveout to answer it.  You opted to dodge again.  Let's not go through that dance again, shall we?

Steve

[danfrodo]

44 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Supply lines aren’t great, and reinforcements from Belgorod would hit them in the flank no?

Yes, FancyCat, those are risks.  The hope was that the operation would be able to hold the ~5 towns along the RU road long enough for UKR to bust thru RU lines, which would be cut off and hopefully retreating.  Also would be nice opportunity to ambush RU reinforcements trying to hit UKR flanks. 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Ok you can poo poo all you like but you have to admit these look pretty slick when stacked up against the urine-soaked hobo corpse ridden parking options we see here in the finest North American offerings.

I mean seriously:

 

the decline and fall of western civilization...