How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

On 9/21/2022 at 4:16 PM, Huba said:

This is a very interesting detail, pertaining to our previous discussion about conscripts. It is indeed what he says there @Grigb? It makes sense IMO, sending conscripts would be unnecessarily aggravating I think, assuming enough of former contract soldiers can be rounded up.

 

Yes, this is exactly what he said. It looks like:

1. Conscripts - those who were conscripted first time stay outside of Ukraine/SMO (they will be used in border areas)
2. Mobilized - those who already served and mobilized will go to Ukraine/SMO 

[Kinophile]

8 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

He does jealously guard that cloaking device. But I will discuss the matter with him, calmly and judiciously. And when that doesn’t work…

Just get him to buy CMBS.  It's why we're all here.

After the first game I'm certain s/he'll make an account just to ask WTF My T90s Keep Dying!!!! Plz Halp. 

Guarantee it. 

[FancyCat]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Look, lets go absurdum here for a moment.  Let say the UA rolls right over the border and Belgorod.  Based on the law of armed conflict, they are perfectly within their rights to attack legitimate military targets that support or act as staging bases in that city.  Belgorod is about 30km from the border and well within what the UA has demonstrated it is capable of - then why aren't they?  Well, likely because they know it would risk triggering an escalation that no one wants.  Ok, maybe the Russians are full of crap and the UA takes Belgorod and Russia does nothing...onto Moscow?

Mind you, there is a much longer list of reasons not to attack and seize Belgorod then simply risk of escalation. Rhetorically, Belgorod is actually useless. Oh sure it's a military hub that bombards Kharkiv daily. But the Ukrainian people do not need Belgorod conquered and not even need the bombardment of Kharkiv to end (tho I'm sure lessening it is nice and that has occurred via targeted action that is not a precursor for invasion) and Zelensky is not going to suffer politically for failing to invade Belgorod. (A great contrast is of course the return of Ukrainian POWs) In that sense, while yes it is a valid target, there is no political need, and not really military need and lots of military negatives and political negatives before we even reach the escalation negativity factor as something for the General Staff of Ukraine to consider.

And obviously Russia understands this as well.

Russia has always understood that Ukraine claims the return of the Donbas and Crimea. It shouldn't be understated that we have a very long list of reasons for Russia to claim Crimea is politically poison for returning to Ukraine and one of the most important is because the international order basically makes Crimea actually a much, much more valid target than Belgorod. Way more valid. Belgorod would actually raise eyebrows worldwide, Crimea would not, or a much less raising of the eyebrows worldwide to be fair.

Russia must employ this "red line" precisely because Crimea is a valid target. The problem is they spent a lot of time cheapening their rhetoric, and the basis for this invasion itself has damaged Russia's red lines. Ukraine is a sword held by NATO at Russia's neck, except the world can see Russia isn't concerned with NATO at all. (You don't move military hardware away from borders that are supposedly ready to invade you)

Even the basis for Ukraine's "Nazi" rhetoric domestically and internationally just got damaged, the leadership of the Azov, terrorists and war criminals who tortured the Donbas, traded over to Ukraine without a trial even.

Attempting to cast the recently occupied regions of Ukriane as eternally Russia damages Russian claims to Crimea severely as well.

Oh sure, no state is immune to domestic concerns and it's right to say that considerations for escalation must account for domestic instability as well as international support.

But even here Russia falls flat on its face. The initial invasion force, understood to be small for the complete occupation of Ukraine, turns out Russia was just a idiot and figured Ukraine for a bunch of chumps.

Instead of opting for measures to indicate the severity of the threat to the Russian state and people and worldwide, it spent months hiding behind the SMO and still does today. By extension the problems we see in the Russian military in Ukraine, the reaction to mobilization, indicate not a whole lot of bottom up eagerness to protect the Donbas or Crimea. At least not to the death.

The fact that Russia spent years rhetorically hyping up Ukraine as the enemy and yet the Russian military, aside from all it's other problems, very much shows a problem stemming from lack of faith and belief in the stated goals of the SMO.

Maybe elite factions threaten Putin if he does not pursue the defense of Crimea. Certainly valid.

But ya, to sum it up, Russian rhetoric around Ukraine just straight up is lies and BS all the way down. Whether Crimea itself is a red line is clouded by the fact they seem to say everything is a red line. Ukraine was a red line. (Not even saying nuclear red lines, mind you, just red lines in general)

[The_Capt]

3 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Yeah, he completly missed my point, but well done.

Oh no we pretty much all got your point.  I was attempting to elevate the discussion past your personal grievances and back to the root issue at hand.

But of course, we all know you have been wronged, it is a subject you have not been exactly shy about expressing.  We can only hope that this alleged injustice can be addressed in the fullness of time.  

[Grigb]

Sorry if I am being late - looks like UKR are making new significant push - RU reports they are being encircled at Lyman area

BTW Nove and Makiivka settlements denotes RU retread part toward Svatove for combat-ineffective units. 

[Haiduk]

Thousands of people came out on protests against mobilization in many large cities of Russia. Well... Even the threat to be a canon fodder didn't wake up Russian society. Most large rally there was in Moscow, but local "creative class" (as like to say Russians) can do nothing to resist except chaunting "no war!" and сlapping, while OMON was taking them away one by one without any resistance. Even beating up of the girl, which allegedly caused her death nothing changed. Russian new-generation can't fight for the future of their land and nation. This generation of comfort life and "we are out of politics" can only to run away from Russia, but only to bring own part of "Russia desecrated" in other countries and to show own defiant arrogance to the people of theese countries.

Even most of Russian liberals and "creative class" have an opinion that all in the world have to be rotate around them. So, if the same Germany wants to recieve in the future new millions of Russians, which don't want integrate in German society and will cooperete in agressive "Russian communities" like this did previous wave of Russian migrants, driving now with Russian flags and supporting the war, so well... let Germany gives "asylum" for them. But I suppose more than 2/3 of theese people, which now assaulting border crossings and airports, posted Z and rejoiced on 24th Feb, hoping about fast Russian triumph.

Ah, I forgot. In Russian social networks many people blame in mobilisation not Putin, but... Ukraine! As if "this is all because of Ukraine continue to resist instead to accept Russian demands and make peace, so we forced to go at war"

Moscow. Chaunting "no war!"

   

Four OMONs packed a guy, but nobody try to free him - they still to clap and chaunt, OMON returns and detains other protester. 

The girl, beaten up, allegedly to the death. No reaction of protestes

And typical comment of Z-fan. I suppose, this flame patriot now on his route to Turkey, Georgia, Finland...

Why I must to participate in mobilization if I support the war and Putin? This is not fair! Let they take those, who against the war, traitors. Otherwise in the conuntry will not remain sane people absolutely! And so many traitors are bred! 

And here it "middle class" - IT employee of the bank. He said he received summons to come to enlistment office on 22nd Sep "for checking personnel data". He came and got immediately appointment that in the same day he must be departed to Naro-Fominsk [base of 4th GTD]. He never served in army, and has health category B. But in enlistment office said he is fit for service. Journalist asks him, what he will do now and man answers: "Waht I can do? I will go, elese it will be criminal case against me"

Maybe I enough sharp, but Russians lost a right to name a "nation". They just "population", which can't and don't want to change something in own country 

Edited September 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[Aragorn2002]

17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Oh no we pretty much all got your point.  I was attempting to elevate the discussion past your personal grievances and back to the root issue at hand.

But of course, we all know you have been wronged, it is a subject you have not been exactly shy about expressing.  We can only hope that this alleged injustice can be addressed in the fullness of time.  

Well, an honest mistake, since you QUOTED me in your post....

[Huba]

Just now, Haiduk said:

Thousands of people came out on protests against mobilization in many large cities of Russia. Well... Even the threat to be a canon fodder didn't wake up Russian society. Most large rally there was in Moscow, but local "creative class" (as like to say Russians) can do nothing to resists except chaunting "no war!" and сlapping, while OMON was taking them away one by one without any resistance. Even beating up of the girl, which allegedly caused her death nothing changed. Russian new-generation can't fight for the future of their land and nation. This generation of comfort life and "we are out of politics" can only to run away from Russia, but only to bring own part of "Russia sesecrated" in other countries and to show own defiant arrogance to the people of theese countries.

Even most of Russian liberals and "creative class" have an opinion that all in the world have to be rotate around them. So, if the same Germany wants to recieve in the future new millions of Russians, which don't want integrate in German society and will cooperete in agressive "Russian communities" like this did previous wave of Russian migrants, driving now with Russian flags and supporting the war, so well... let Germany gives "asylum" for them. But I suppose more than 2/3 of theese people, which now assaulting border crossings and airports, posted Z and rejoiced on 24th Feb, hoping about fast Russian triumph.

Ah, I forgot. In Russian social networks many people blame in mobilisation not Putin, but... Ukraine! As if "this is all because of Ukraine continue to resist instead to accept Russian demands and make peace, so we forced to go at war"

Moscow. Chaunting "no war!"

   

Four OMONs packed a guy, but nobody try to free him - they still to clap and chaunt, OMON returns and detains other protester. 

The girl, beaten up, allegedly to the death. No reaction of protestes

And typical comment of Z-fan. I suppose, this flame patriot now on his route to Turkey, Georgia, Finland...

Why I must to participate in mobilization if I support the war and Putin? This is not fair! Let they take those, who against the war, traitors. Otherwise in the conuntry will not remain sane people in the country absolutely! And so many traitors are bred! 

And here it "middle class" - IT employee of the bank. He said he received summons to come to enlistment office on 22nd Sep "for checking personnel data". He came and got immediately appointment that in the same day he must be departed to Naro-Fominsk [base of 4th FTD]. Journalist asks him, what he will do now and man answers: "Waht I can do? I will go, elese it will be criminal case against me"

Maybe I enough sharp, but Russians lost a right to name a "nation". They just "population", which can't and don't want to change something in own country 

I'd say that I agree partially with what you said. No doubt that their attempts at protest are just laughable, compared what it will take to actually make any difference. There's also no doubt that their main motivation is absolutely egoistic, they still don't (as a rule of thumb) give a crap about the war as such. I don't have much sympathy for them, all things considered.
But I'm absolutely convinced that what we're seeing is not all that will happen. These protest will probably quiet down a bit, but after coffins start coming in from the front, if there's a significant defeat that results in very severe casualties among the new waves of conscripts, the unrest will grow. Putin will of course answer with more terror, but approach has it's limits. Especially after wounded/ rotated troops start returning to Russian cities in some time. IMO the situation will go in the direction of 1905 in some time.

[Harmon Rabb]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

   And typical comment of Z-fan. I suppose, this flame patriot now on his route to Turkey, Georgia, Finland...

Why I must to participate in mobilization if I support the war and Putin? This is not fair! Let they take those, who against the war, traitors. Otherwise in the conuntry will not remain sane people in the country absolutely! And so many traitors are bred! 

 

 

As much as I don't like where this is all going because it will mean more Ukrainian servicemen killed in action.

It is kind of funny to see some of those idiots who go around posting using "Z" profile pics on Twitter and YouTube, complaining when they finally have a chance to prove how much they really support Putin and this war.

Please keep us updated on the reactions to mobilization from Russia, this is a very interesting topic.

[Aragorn2002]

On 9/21/2022 at 3:11 PM, billbindc said:

"Mongols" are not a race either.

What about "Huns"?

[Aragorn2002]

On 9/21/2022 at 3:11 PM, billbindc said:

"Mongols" are not a race either.

Double post

Edited September 22, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Aragorn2002]

On 9/21/2022 at 3:11 PM, billbindc said:

"Mongols" are not a race either.

Double post.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Aragorn2002]

On 9/21/2022 at 3:11 PM, billbindc said:

"Mongols" are not a race either.

Double post.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Artkin]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

If this is not a joke, that after the war we will know many cool stories about SOF deep raids.

Behind the soldiers the road sign with name of the city - Enerhodar

 

This is perfect terrain for this boys to operate in. The rivers impede movement but offer raiding potential by better equipped, small groups. I heard SF did a lot of damage during the night by Hostomel

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

Putin will of course answer with more terror, but approach has it's limits. Especially after wounded/ rotated troops start returning to Russian cities in some time. IMO the situation will go in the direction of 1905 in some time.

I think, if Russian overthrone Putin, that not because he ruined their country and crushed their rights, but because he lost the war. And this will do not "cheering creative millenials".

[FancyCat]

54 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

1. If the LDPR remain geographically connected to Russia then UKR will just pass on the next stage of the war to their grandkids. That's already happened with the 2014 war and I'm pretty sure UKR has no intention of allowing a repeat. The Donbass is a door that the Ivan will keep pushing through, forever.
2. If Crimea is left as Russian controlled then Ukraine's economic and political future will never be secure - it is a knife at the throat of the Ukrainian nation. Dropping the Kerch bridge is not eenough

 

Actually you bring up something important that needs to be recognized as to why Ukraine will never concede the land. Never. Ever. Maybe some temporary ceasefire. Never any formal swap or recognition or a payoff for giving it up. That is because one of the central tenets of the separatism in the Donbas and Crimea centers on Ukrainian oppression of Russian speakers. Mind you. Not ethnic Russians tho certainly a important tenet as well. Russian speakers. Goddamn most of the country is bilingual. Vast populations of "oppressed Russian speakers" were given as reasons for the invasions past the Donbas region, like Kharkiv. The puppet republics were seen as not able to be annexed by Russia cause Russia wanted levers into Ukraine. Sadly, as seen with their rhetoric claiming all of Ukraine at the beginning of the invasion and midpoint, annexation of the Donbas into Russia isn't the end of the matter.

As absolutely seen in these referendums in every semi-occupied oblast, Russia can and has moved the goalposts at will, with no regard for the truth, only as much as to provide a veneer of justification for their actions.

That means in the future, should a Russia that formalized a annexation of the DPR and LNR ever want to annex Kharkiv for example, it can pull the oppression of Russian-language speakers card out, and off we go.

So no, Ukraine giving up Crimea and the Donbas won't end Russian bull****. Far from it, it might well legitimatize future bull****. Certainly more so than Ukraine's current stance which is this is all Russian controlled and manned and bull**** and therefore, Ukraine kicking in Russia in the teeth is perfectly justified.

Edited September 22, 2022 by FancyCat

[The_Capt]

13 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Rhetorically, Belgorod is actually useless.

Of course it is useless, the UA just took back all the LOCs it used to be attached to, that was not the point - it was a hypothetical.  The point was that an counter-invasion of Russian territory is off the table, even where it would make sense because Russia does have an escalation line that Ukraine does not want to cross.

You seem to be suggesting that the line does not exist at all.  That Russia is completely all bluster and smoke.  That no land within Ukraine nor the occupied regions would constitute, in Russian calculus a reason for escalation.  You sound very confident that the value of re-securing the pre-2014 is much higher than any false-escalation narrative coming out of Russia. 

Cool, got it.  Best Case scenario: Ukraine retakes all previously occupied regions, no escalation and Russia goes back to whatever mess it has created and tries to deal, but does not fall into Mad Max levels of governance.  We rebuild Ukraine and pull into the western power sphere and risk manage whatever is left of Russia. Totally fair and this is definitely a possibility if the cards all line up - I do not share your optimism or certainty but I can definitely see your vision of reality.

Worst case scenario: 

Is it likely, not so much; however, we are a lot closer to it than we were in Jan - I think we can agree on that much, or maybe not.

I think the biggest difference between our two positions is that I recognize that there is a spectrum of outcomes that we - the west and Ukraine - can still call victory that are less than your vision.  I also think that you have dismissed the worse case scenario largely based on assumptions - some are very good assumptions; however, I am not sure I would be willing to bet on all of them.  Further, in my experience, when someone is pushing the best case this hard, I immediately get nervous because we never get the best case scenario.  

In reality, I do not think your best case or the worst case will happen.  We will land in a stable but crappy spot where no one is happy but they can live with it.  For example, I fundamentally challenge the idea that Ukrainian security and by extension western security is tied directly to real estate.  It is tied to relationships, which we can solve for once the shooting stops, regardless of where lines are drawn.  I hope those lines are at the original Ukrainian border, but I also think we will live with less.

I base this on a lot of experience, but even that has limited use here, because we have never really been here before.

 

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I think, if Russian overthrone Putin, that not because he ruined their country and crushed their rights, but because he lost the war. And this will do not "cheering creative millenials".

IMO this things i.e. ruining the country and loosing the war are correlated. And more social groups are pissed off the better, it only speeds up the process. After that, as it often happens after revolutions, the worst of them, meaning some Nationalists will take charge.

[The_Capt]

7 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Actually you bring up something important that needs to be recognized as to why Ukraine will never concede the land. Never. Ever.

Now here is a very important question: Will Ukraine support free and fair (UN monitored) elections in these regions in order to allow citizens to decide their own nationality?  Will Ukraine honor the choices made in these regions, even if the vote in significant areas leads to secession?

More to the point, will Ukraine concede land to a democratic process?  I think there is a mountain of evidence of Russian interference; however, there is clearly also a deeper issue here as well.  One that should be addressed through democratic process.

[LongLeftFlank]

13 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

(this book kind of sucked actually)

Blue or Alan?

 

[LongLeftFlank]

15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

DEFEND CITIES

Ambush!!!!!

 

 

 

Edited September 22, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Aragorn2002]

6 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Blue or Alan?

 

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

He does jealously guard that cloaking device. But I will discuss the matter with him, calmly and judiciously. And when that doesn’t work…

Heh.  Well, he can just chime in as "just some dude".  I know for a fact that quite a few of our contributors here are more than they seem to be.  The attitude here, which I'm sure you've picked up on, is we judge people's contributions on merit and not on reputation or profession.  Sometimes the latter comes into play (like when Dave tells us we aren't all going to die from radiation poisoning), but contributions can definitely be made without it.

Steve

[Huba]

Oh, Stephen Colbert interviewed Dmytro Kuleba yesterday. I understand that this guy is well, not perceived as neutral politically in the US  But as a foreigner I always thought of him as really entertaining.
Actually they discuss the nuclear threats quite a bit, IMO it's worth watching as it's applicable to the current discussion going on in here, showing what's the Ukrainian gov perspective on that.

 

 

Edited September 22, 2022 by Huba

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Admitting this makes me a little sick, like watching a Devo concert

TheCapt, did you really type this?  Are you trying for vacation?  Next thing I know you'll disparage Bowie, Elvis C, or the eagles.  Then you definitely have a death wish.

But you made point about US-Iraq war on which I want to expand.  The damage that is done by stepping over 'norms' is something folks overlook.  They say "hey I can get away w this because while no one else does this there's no law against it".  Mike Duncan's book on the last decades of Roman Republic (the Storm Before the Storm) shows this very well.  Taboo actions are employed to gain political advantage, then everyone could do that going forward. So when (for example) US believes itself exceptional relative to norms and does something just because it can get away w it, it's also creating precedents for others w possibly darker motives.  This is true in politics of any country and in international relations.  US interventions are an excuse for Putin to do his intervention, though as TheCapt pointed out, our intentions might not have always been the best we were an order(s) of magnitude more reasonable than Putin.