How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

29 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

So where on this thread or anywhere else for that matter will you find an analysis/assessment by me, or anyone else here for that matter that mirrors this?  In fact we were all going the other way while mainstream analysis was saying above.

One year?!  Ok, I think we are done here - you can push back but you are crossing some lines here.  We will be paying off this war for at least a decade, likely longer. The realignment of energy in Europe alone is going to take that long, let alone the reconstruction bill for Ukraine.  The investment in NATO will likely go into the trillions in that time.

You wanna push back with facts, sure let's hear em, but this is more a temper tantrum that the world is harsh and things are likely not going to go all the way you want.  Or you could simply disagree with me and we shall see, but it appears that ship has sailed.  So stamp your feet, hold your breath, it is not going to change likely endgame reality.

Or I could lie to you and tell you that the west will stand behind Ukraine all the way to the 2013 border, even if it takes 10 years and a nuclear war...there, feel better?

Nothing to lie about, I'm just pointing out the durability of the West is much higher than we think, the ability of our populations to pinhole issues is very useful, the return on investment is quite good, and the energy realignment had to happen anyway, and who said 10 years and a nuclear war? I'm just pointing out a year of war where the U.S nor NATO isn't putting boots on the ground or suffering any deaths, while Ukraine is shouldering the dead is actually a good deal (as morbid as it sounds), and if Ukraine wants to secure the security of their sealanes without relying wholly on the West in the future, it might well be a good idea to spend some time taking back Crimea and for the West to give the thumbs up and a pat on the back to see how it goes. 

As for the Suwałki Gap, I'm just pointing out that was a very real scenario with all sorts of repercussions and scenarios for NATO to figure out, and last time I checked it has always been the position of NATO that every member will defend the other, and unlike CSTO, it has teeth. Wouldn't it be fair to say those plans envisioned a much more longer war with such high costs and loss of life? 

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, poesel said:

Sorry, but this is wrong. Oil is no problem at all. Gas will (mostly) be done by the end of next year. Nuclear might really take longer because the uranium rods need to be certified. You cannot just switch the supplier. AFAIK, this takes quite some time.

Excluded is of course Hungary...

That's the power of capitalism. If something is expensive, someone will make (more of) it until it is cheap. Getting from here to there might be bumpy, though.

The EU will pay for that in the long run, no doubt. There will be endless grumbling and moaning, but in the end we will all be better off.

And there's a reasonable chance that frozen RU central bank assets will be transferred to UA, that is half of the bill right there. 

[chuckdyke]

Hong Kong solution? Lease it for hundred years (Crimea) and let the people in 2122 sort it out.

[asurob]

If Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the US will destroy the Black Sea Fleet, said the former commander of US forces in Europe, Lieutenant General Ben Hodges.

 

   Linky 

[The_Capt]

23 minutes ago, poesel said:

Sorry, but this is wrong. Oil is no problem at all. Gas will (mostly) be done by the end of next year. Nuclear might really take longer because the uranium rods need to be certified. You cannot just switch the supplier. AFAIK, this takes quite some time.

Excluded is of course Hungary...

That's the power of capitalism. If something is expensive, someone will make (more of) it until it is cheap. Getting from here to there might be bumpy, though.

The EU will pay for that in the long run, no doubt. There will be endless grumbling and moaning, but in the end we will all be better off.

So nuclear “takes some time”, like maybe ten years?  And by realign I mean get it back to pre-war prices and security.  Germany had 55% of its gas from Russia https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/08/energy-crisis-germany-europe/

It will re-wire that but it is not going to be magically solved price-wise by next year, capitalism is good but not that good.  Europe will get energy but getting back to pre-war prices is likely going to take some time.  Unless you have some analysis that says otherwise…?

[kevinkin]

9 minutes ago, Huba said:

And there's a reasonable chance that frozen RU central bank assets will be transferred to UA, that is half of the bill right there. 

There's that damn word again "frozen" Anyway, the RU central bank can not transfer any of the blood and treasure they took from Ukraine. Those monetary assets are not punitive. The living standard of Russians should be allowed to fall through the roof until they understand what they have done and own up to it. That can't happen under Putin and there is the rub. 

[kevinkin]

Alone, does the Black Sea fleet have any value other than to use it for target practice? I think destroying the means to export fossil fuels would hurt Russia a whole lot more. And that would be just the start. 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

who said 10 years and a nuclear war

I did!  Are we at the point where we are arguing past each other?  Kind of feels like it.  

Retaking pre-2014 lines is not going to be quick, unless Russia collapses.  In fact I am pretty sure there are a lot of people in this regions who won’t like it so an insurgency in the population is likely.  A long drawn out war for that is what I am talking about.

A year?  Of course the west is going to continue the support for a year.  If the UA can walk the RA back to the border in that time, hey great.

Nuclear war.

That.  We are not going likely going to stay united in the west on the Crimea in the face of that.  If the US responds to a battlefield nuclear weapon by wiping out the Black Sea Fleet we are in an 80s movie.  And in this hypothetical we are doing this for Crimea?  Sorry, I do not see it.

Look, I honestly hope I am wrong.  Again, I am not advocating any of this and clearly touched a nerve; however, I am not about living in an echo chamber either.  This is my assessment.  Disagree, post your own assessment, or go to another forum that tells you what you want to hear.

Find me a war where total cost-less victory happens.  WW2, nope cost a mint to rebuild Europe and Japan, and we got the Cold War as a consolation prize.  Pick anyone, they all end with all sides coming to terms with a reality that does not match the one they went in wanting.  No one ever gets 100 percent perfect endings, in order to do that your are by definition not at war.

Last time. Russia must come to terms with how it is going to lose this war, and Ukraine with how it will win it.  Neither of those end states will be a perfect vision of what either side wanted.
 

Edited September 22, 2022 by The_Capt

[FancyCat]

2 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Alone, does the Black Sea fleet have any value other than to use it for target practice? I think destroying the means to export fossil fuels would hurt Russia a whole lot more. And that would be just the start. 

Why Russia has the world over a barrel, at the end of the day, its a global market, Russia ceasing export to anyone raises the price of the remaining fuel as bidders fight for lower supply. LNG supply is also harder to move, most go via pipelines. Fun part is Russia is selling LNG to China who resells it back to Europe, taking advantage of the higher prices vs whatever concessions it gets from Russia. 

[FancyCat]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I did!  Are we at the point where we are arguing past each other?  Kind of feels like it.  

Most likely. 

I gave my assessment, now all we can do is wait for the passage of time. 

Edited September 21, 2022 by FancyCat

[BletchleyGeek]

44 minutes ago, keas66 said:

 Things seems to have quietened down for sure - but is the consensus  that the  Campaigning season is now over ?

They have and probably the cause are operational concerns (logistic problems like integration of new equipment and replacements, flank security, defining goals, etc). Which is to say real world military operations do not quite work like operations in Gary Grigsby's War in the East.

[Peregrine]

I don't think is reasonable to compare nation building in Afghanistan / Iraq to Ukraine.

In the middle east at every level of society from the bottom to top their was always be going significant resistance or ambivalence due to either self-interest, ignorance or flat out cultural aversion to change. And it doesn't matter how hard you try as soon as you use airpower to a significant degree there is mistakes. The longer troops are on the ground more mistakes. Lots of mistakes over a long period of time slowly but surely adds up to looking like you simply don't care - fail. Cultural change isn't especially fast and to suggest that Iraq / Afghanistan are only 60?! or so years away from organically morphing into modern democracies so lets fight a war and do it in 20 is ludicrous. 

The Ukrainians on the other hand were already clearly starting to walk the walk to be a functioning part of the Western world which is probably not an insignificant reason they were invaded in the first place. I have not even bothered checking Zelensky's Ukrainian popularity but Western leaders trust them enough to give them stupendous amounts of weapons and an indeterminable look at our Intel capabilities. There is a clear and obvious enemy to be beaten. Partisan style warfare after major hostilities seems unlikely unless of course criminal gangs being criminals count as freedom fighters. Ukraine will have their own trouble with corruption and waste when the war finishes but their start point prior to invasion isn't anything remotely like Afghanistan/Iraq.

[photon]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Russia must come to terms with how it is going to lose this war, and Ukraine with how it will win it.

So, my thesis is that the Russians are trying for a speed run of Japan's WWII strategy right now. Phase 1 was a replay of Pearl Harbor but aimed at Kiev - an attempt at a decisive victory that hinged on the opponent giving up. Phase 2 was the incremental march in the Donbas; a grinding attritional campaign that mirrors the fight in the Solomons. Phase 3 was the loss of strategic initiative and transition to static defense against an adversary who can attack on two axes; the Hollandia campaign and the Marianas campaign. All throughout, the quality of Japanese equipment and training faded while the quality of the USN improved. Japanese strategic thinking ossified to a policy of inflicting suffering while dying.

If we think of war as communication, it took the annihilation of the IJN, the undersea blockade, the firebombings *and* two nuclear weapons to break through to the one person we had to communicate our resolve to. When Hirohito decided for surrender, the war ended (though this was a close run thing).

I think what no one has identified in Ukraine yet is how to communicate to the Russian equivalent of Hirohito that our resolve is such that the war should end on terms unfavorable to the Russians. We also aren't sure that there is a decision maker in Russia who could end the war. If Putin signaled surrender, would it stick? The Ukrainians don't have signaling tools equivalent to what the Allies had either, which is tricky.

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Together with 10 fighters of Foreign Legion UKR brought back 190 own militaries and among them some heroes of Azovstal, including Azov fighters. In this time became knowingly about liberation of chief of Mariupol patrol police Mykhaylo Vershynin - his guys were almost single police unit of Mariupol, which fought to the end, when most of other policemen either fled or hide and further to defect to Russia

Also was liberated Kateryna Polishchuk "Ptashka" ("Birdy") paramedic of "Hospitaliers" volunteer medic unit, which became famous when uploaded own songs from besiged Azovstal

 

 

Ghirkin's head is going to explode! The Ru Nats lost it when they exchanged that one female medic a month or two ago. I can never remember her name. This is an orders of magnitude bigger deal.

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

The Captain is making the cost benefit analysis that you can be sure is also being made not just in London, Paris and New York but also in Kyiv. Should the war continue to go in Ukraine's favor and should it take back everything to the 2014 line, it's going to have a choice. The choice will be either to continue a much harder war for terrain it may decide it doesn't need or an immediate settlement within NATO and the EU. If that choice takes the potential for nuclear weapons off the table, all the better. That is very much *not* status quo ante. That's a Ukrainian victory of great import...if not a total one. And it's not one Zelensky will ever articulate until the day the Russians sign the document.

It will become apparent to the Ukrainians themselves rather quickly whether they are going to have to pay for Crimea by the centimeter, or in hundred hectare chunks. If they can take it in 20k tactical bounds, well the Russian empire probably isn't a thing anymore. They have proven to be anything but stupid, they will make a deal if it is clear we are looking at the by centimeters plan.

As the Capitan has ably pointed out the Donbas is not worth having, other than the moral victory. 90% percent of the people who needed saving there are either dead, or long, LONG gone. My recommended negotiating position with the L/DPR would be they are 100% Ukraine, or they are 100% Russian. There is no middle ground, no autonomy, no special status, no lingering anything. If they are stupid enough to choose Russia, well, they never were very bright. And again this is assuming the Russian army doesn't' just rout off the field. If they do there is no need to negotiate with anybody in the Republics. Just march in and apply Ukrainian law fairly, 99% of the L/PDR leadership have committed entire law books worth of crime. If they are stupid enough not to retreat with the Russian army, just prosecute them.

What WE need to do is stay on on our congresscritters/MPs and ensure Ukraine has enough support that this conversation is actually relevant, by late spring of next year if not sooner.

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, photon said:

So, my thesis is that the Russians are trying for a speed run of Japan's WWII strategy right now. Phase 1 was a replay of Pearl Harbor but aimed at Kiev - an attempt at a decisive victory that hinged on the opponent giving up. Phase 2 was the incremental march in the Donbas; a grinding attritional campaign that mirrors the fight in the Solomons. Phase 3 was the loss of strategic initiative and transition to static defense against an adversary who can attack on two axes; the Hollandia campaign and the Marianas campaign. All throughout, the quality of Japanese equipment and training faded while the quality of the USN improved. Japanese strategic thinking ossified to a policy of inflicting suffering while dying.

If we think of war as communication, it took the annihilation of the IJN, the undersea blockade, the firebombings *and* two nuclear weapons to break through to the one person we had to communicate our resolve to. When Hirohito decided for surrender, the war ended (though this was a close run thing).

I think what no one has identified in Ukraine yet is how to communicate to the Russian equivalent of Hirohito that our resolve is such that the war should end on terms unfavorable to the Russians. We also aren't sure that there is a decision maker in Russia who could end the war. If Putin signaled surrender, would it stick? The Ukrainians don't have signaling tools equivalent to what the Allies had either, which is tricky.

This is VERY well put.

[kevinkin]

And those barrels should just pile up on Putin's porch. The free world will adapt just fine without his source of income. If the free world is so addicted to Putin's drug, then shame on us looking the other way and banning technology like fracking. There is plenty of energy in the ground and where money can be made innovation follows.    

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

I don't think is reasonable to compare nation building in Afghanistan / Iraq to Ukraine.

In the middle east at every level of society from the bottom to top their was always be going significant resistance or ambivalence due to either self-interest, ignorance or flat out cultural aversion to change. And it doesn't matter how hard you try as soon as you use airpower to a significant degree there is mistakes. The longer troops are on the ground more mistakes. Lots of mistakes over a long period of time slowly but surely adds up to looking like you simply don't care - fail. Cultural change isn't especially fast and to suggest that Iraq / Afghanistan are only 60?! or so years away from organically morphing into modern democracies so lets fight a war and do it in 20 is ludicrous. 

The Ukrainians on the other hand were already clearly starting to walk the walk to be a functioning part of the Western world which is probably not an insignificant reason they were invaded in the first place. I have not even bothered checking Zelensky's Ukrainian popularity but Western leaders trust them enough to give them stupendous amounts of weapons and an indeterminable look at our Intel capabilities. There is a clear and obvious enemy to be beaten. Partisan style warfare after major hostilities seems unlikely unless of course criminal gangs being criminals count as freedom fighters. Ukraine will have their own trouble with corruption and waste when the war finishes but their start point prior to invasion isn't anything remotely like Afghanistan/Iraq.

This is the thing that angered me the most about the Russian attack on Ukraine. Ukraine, with very little help, was making the transition from a badly run country to a truly decent one. That is just about the hardest thing to do in the entirety of human history. Our utterly failed attempts to even get a good start on the process in the middle east being exhibit A. For Russia to try and abort that process is pretty much the greatest crime imaginable. 

[FancyCat]

I'm mulling over the prisoner swap and what the hell Putin is thinking, obviously the nationalists are mad, there is a list of how was given, but i do wonder if its possible for it to be a lie, and some high value officials or officers were captured in that list of 55 Russians. Medvedchuk, maybe he softened up on him or wanted him to sweat a little before rescuing him, or he's falling out a window in a bit. 

I saw a justification cope going around where the five high-profile ones commanders, they are opposed to Zelensky and will cause unrest in Ukraine as a result thanks to being free. I am unsure how they do it interned in Turkey but computers work i suppose. 

I wonder if this is another one of those shots across the bow of the RU Nats, you get your mobilization but I'm still in charge. 

 

 

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

In last two days Pravdyne village in Kherson oblast became an arena of fierce clashes - UKR troops seized the part of village (or even whole) on 18th Sep, but Russians moved there units of 76th air-assault division and counter-attacked, pushed UKR forces back. New attempts of UKR atatcks failed. As result we lost enough armor

 

Any indication what the Russians bill was? Someone should consider using some precision munitions on a grouping of Russians with that competence level. They can't have may of them left.

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I'm mulling over the prisoner swap and what the hell Putin is thinking, obviously the nationalists are mad, there is a list of how was given, but i do wonder if its possible for it to be a lie, and some high value officials or officers were captured in that list of 55 Russians. Medvedchuk, maybe he softened up on him or wanted him to sweat a little before rescuing him, or he's falling out a window in a bit. 

I saw a justification cope going around where the five high-profile ones commanders, they are opposed to Zelensky and will cause unrest in Ukraine as a result thanks to being free. I am unsure how they do it interned in Turkey but computers work i suppose. 

I wonder if this is another one of those shots across the bow of the RU Nats, you get your mobilization but I'm still in charge. 

 

 

There's likely some signaling going on to both the West and to Turkey. My constant refrain is that Putin is unreasonable but not irrational. It is evident that he *really* didn't want to do mobilization. He knows that the US and NATO can see that the nuclear threats are about defending Festung NovoRossiya, not a sign in any way that Russia has the initiative. So...while he's waving that stick he's making it clear that he can be negotiated with. The RuNats might not like it but they got the mobilization they demanded. They can wear this.

[CAZmaj]

4 hours ago, FancyCat said:

What I'm saying is Russia does not want to be a part of the global order. It wants a new order, or better to say, it wants a old world order back again. The problem is they have nukes, as you have acknowledged. Part of their vision of that old world order is Ukraine is Russian once again. And the Baltics. Finland. Poland. The Balkans. And so on. Russia thinks the West is weak. Russia thinks it can break apart the West and regain her status. Russia got into this mess cause it believed the West was ready to fold. In 2014, the West closed their eyes to what Russia wanted, and figured Russia had moved on from the old world order, and therefore didn't punish Russia when we had the chance...

Agreed. Just a small issue - Balkan was never Russian/Soviet.

[akd]

56 minutes ago, asurob said:

If Russia uses nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the US will destroy the Black Sea Fleet, said the former commander of US forces in Europe, Lieutenant General Ben Hodges.

 

   Linky 

Emphasis on former.  He is now a commentator / think tank guy.

[kevinkin]

22 minutes ago, photon said:

no one has identified in Ukraine yet is how to communicate to the Russian equivalent of Hirohito

That's setting too high a standard for any Russian with influence. 

"Before the end of the second World War, Emperor Hirohito was considered by the Japanese to be a living God. And the first time most of his people heard him speak, it was to surrender"

But I am sure the West's intel communities are looking for someone rational to communicate with assuring terms hugely beneficial to Ukraine and the West.

[FancyCat]

3 minutes ago, CAZmaj said:

Agreed. Just a small issue - Balkan was never Russian/Soviet.

thanks for the correction. 

well, well.

 

 

[Peregrine]

4 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

But I am sure the West's intel communities are looking for someone rational to communicate with assuring terms hugely beneficial to Ukraine and the West.

There is no coherent group within any real power that exists like that in Russia. This is the fundamental problem.

This is Churchill quote "Kremlin political intrigues are comparable to a bulldog fight under a rug. An outsider only hears the growling, and when he sees the bones fly out from beneath it is obvious who won."

There are no sensible bulldogs under the rug at the moment. It seems to be only Putins or more extreme.