How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/21/world/europe/ukraine-maps-momentum.html

The most irritating thing about the NYT's usually bad Ukraine coverage is that they can do great work when they try. The above article proof, very well done. They do seem to have finally noticed that Russia ISN'T winning this war.

[asurob]

31 minutes ago, akd said:

Emphasis on former.  He is now a commentator / think tank guy.

Maybe but this is at least the 2nd or 3rd time I have read that as the response to a single tac nuke.  So maybe it has teeth?

[danfrodo]

3 hours ago, sburke said:

Hold the phone.... as an Eagles fan, born and raised in Philly (back me up here @BFCElvis) I'm okay with Dallas.  

Talk about kicking the Cowboys when they are down.  Not only will the Eagles probably whup them this year, you want them nuked also?  Geeeeez.  Philly fans are just like the legends say.

For those of you not from the US, Philadelphia eagles fans are infamous for once booing Santa Claus (not the real santa, mind you).  They are not nice to opposing teams and even less nice to their own team if it's not winning.

[Lethaface]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Nothing to lie about, I'm just pointing out the durability of the West is much higher than we think, the ability of our populations to pinhole issues is very useful, the return on investment is quite good, and the energy realignment had to happen anyway, and who said 10 years and a nuclear war? I'm just pointing out a year of war where the U.S nor NATO isn't putting boots on the ground or suffering any deaths, while Ukraine is shouldering the dead is actually a good deal (as morbid as it sounds), and if Ukraine wants to secure the security of their sealanes without relying wholly on the West in the future, it might well be a good idea to spend some time taking back Crimea and for the West to give the thumbs up and a pat on the back to see how it goes. 

I think you are mainly looking from different perspective compared to TheCapt. One is more personal/emotional where you'd like to see things going and that it's important to keep up support. The other is (imo) more a professional perspective / painting of how the situation might / will probably / usually develop over time given the current context. 

AFAIK nobody here is saying Ukraine should stop it's offensives right now and allow peaceful reconnection of RU gas pump (although sure enough people who can't pay their energy bills will think such things).

Rather the fact that further down the line somewhere the war (and or support for it) will end and it might not be all moonlight and roses.
A lot will depend on what happens the next 6 months, obviously ;-). 
If Ukraine is halfway Crimea and Russia is organizing the record for draft dodging spring 2023 things might look quite different compared to the situation where taking back all terrain lost this year will draw out to a stalemate deep in 2023. 
That's just how the world works. 

I'm quite sure most people in this thread feel that obviously the righteous outcome would be the return of all territory to Ukraine and Russia without the capability to 'give it another go', contributing to the reconstruction of Ukraine and Putin and a bunch of other (war)criminals behind bars in another country.

Anyway, that's for the long run.
For the moment I'm rather positive about Ukraine's recent accomplishments on the battlefield and I agree with others here that the RU mobilization is mainly a show for internal audiences and won't make much difference on the ground any soon if ever.

We'll see where things go, who knows even Winter might bring opportunities.

[sburke]

11 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Talk about kicking the Cowboys when they are down.  Not only will the Eagles probably whup them this year, you want them nuked also?  Geeeeez.  Philly fans are just like the legends say.

For those of you not from the US, Philadelphia eagles fans are infamous for once booing Santa Claus (not the real santa, mind you).  They are not nice to opposing teams and even less nice to their own team if it's not winning.

Hitchhiking robot meets demise in Philadelphia | PhillyVoice

[kevinkin]

17 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

There is no coherent group within any real power that exists like that in Russia. This is the fundamental problem.

This is Churchill quote "Kremlin political intrigues are comparable to a bulldog fight under a rug. An outsider only hears the growling, and when he sees the bones fly out from beneath it is obvious who won."ut

There are no sensible bulldogs under the rug at the moment. It seems to be only Putins or more extreme.

I have heard that. But the situation is too immediate to throw one's hand up and rely on the notions of a man who passed in '65 and try nothing. But if Putin and his inner circle are the only ones the West trusts with the nuke codes, that would be a tough nut swallow i.e. anything other than Putin is too risky. 

[NamEndedAllen]

4 hours ago, sburke said:

Hold the phone.... as an Eagles fan, born and raised in Philly (back me up here @BFCElvis) I'm okay with Dallas.  

As one who has held his tongue reading EVERY SINGLE PAGE thru 1,40freaking2 of this unprecedented and now legendary thread - despite all the numerous assertions with no evidence except (well informed) opinions about the past…and despite the important and profound debates on morality and ethical conduct during and after war…and the demonstrated courage and sacrifice of a nation standing up to one of the all time biggest bullies in history…and the terrific analyses of the ebb and flow of the front lines…and the historical and cultural explanations…all without daring to stick my only neck out - THIS CROSSED THE RED LINE! Loyalty DEMANDS solidarity!

FLY, EAGLES, FLY! COWBOYS, BYE BYE!
 

 

PS forum name is in honor of my first childhood best friend, who refused to abandon a downed severely wounded black ops pilot as time ran out on a mission up North. Cost him dearly the rest of his life - ended too soon. Clear skies, Allen. Never forgotten.

Edited September 22, 2022 by NamendedAllen

[kevinkin]

16 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Philadelphia eagles fans are infamous for once booing Santa Claus

But sicker, they cheer for injured players as well:

https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/today-philly-sports-history-eagle-fans-cheer-irvins-career-ending-injury

Veterans Stadium also had it's own jail and court

https://www.sports-king.com/jail-veterans-stadium-philadelphia-3363/

Philly fans take it to the extreme at times. Most blame it on alcohol - but not me. 

 

[Peregrine]

Just finished reading a story about the exodus the conscription is causing in Russia and was browsing through the comments in the Sydney based news paper to see a steady stream of pro-Ukraine anti-Putin (not Russian) comments from simple to more well informed opinions when I came across this little gem that made me laugh.

"Why can’t he just go play civilisation on his computer like the rest of us." - DFISH (anon Australian)

[danfrodo]

23 minutes ago, NamendedAllen said:

As one who has held his tongue reading EVERY SINGLE PAGE thru 1,40freaking2 of this unprecedented and now legendary thread - despite all the numerous assertions with no evidence except (well informed) opinions about the past…and despite the important and profound debates on morality and ethical conduct during and after war…and the demonstrated courage and sacrifice of a nation standing up to one of the all time biggest bullies in history…and the terrific analyses of the ebb and flow of the front lines…and the historical and cultural explanations…all without daring to stick my only neck out - THIS CROSSED THE RED LINE! Loyalty DEMANDS solidarity!

FLY, EAGLES, FLY! COWBOYS, BYE BYE!
 

 

PS forum name is in honor of my first childhood best friend, who refused to abandon a downed severely wounded black ops pilot as time ran out on a mission up North. Cost him dearly the rest of his life - ended too soon. Clear skies, Allen. Never forgotten.

Not an Eagles fan per se, but I am rooting the eagles QB who's about as big an underdog as Ukraine.

On-subject note:  It's good to speculate about RU in case of political/national collapse, worst & best cases & such.  but golly the future is really really dark.  We are dark on who long it could take to collapse Kherson, if at all.  We are dark on the nukes.  We are dark on whether anyone actually can  remove Putin.  THings are very, very wide open.  If things stay linear then Ukraine will almost surely get back most or all of 2022 territory.  If things go sideways, it could go way good or way bad.  Heck, we don't even know when or how much mud is coming over the next few weeks, if any.  

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, NamendedAllen said:

As one who has held his tongue reading EVERY SINGLE PAGE thru 1,40freaking2 of this unprecedented and now legendary thread - despite all the numerous assertions with no evidence except (well informed) opinions about the past…and despite the important and profound debates on morality and ethical conduct during and after war…and the demonstrated courage and sacrifice of a nation standing up to one of the all time biggest bullies in history…and the terrific analyses of the ebb and flow of the front lines…and the historical and cultural explanations…all without daring to stick my only neck out - THIS CROSSED THE RED LINE! Loyalty DEMANDS solidarity!

FLY, EAGLES, FLY! COWBOYS, BYE BYE!
 

 

You Eagles fans are... dedicated.  Yes, that's the word I have very carefully chosen to use.

1 hour ago, NamendedAllen said:

PS forum name is in honor of my first childhood best friend, who refused to abandon a downed severely wounded black ops pilot as time ran out on a mission up North. Cost him dearly the rest of his life - ended too soon. Clear skies, Allen. Never forgotten.

Although a comparatively small thing in comparison to your friend's heroism, honoring him with your Forum name is quite touching.  Thank you for sharing.

Steve

[BletchleyGeek]

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

thanks for the correction. 

well, well.

 

 

This little piggy went to the market... 

The Italians had great success with this stuff, arguably the biggest success of the Reggia Marina in World War II

 

Edited September 22, 2022 by BletchleyGeek

[Battlefront.com]

Lethaface has it correct in his post above, summarized as:

2 hours ago, Lethaface said:

AFAIK nobody here is saying Ukraine should stop it's offensives right now and allow peaceful reconnection of RU gas pump

Correct. Since the start of this thread we've had a frank discussion about the realities of this war (as best we can) and plenty of guesswork as to what might come next.  I'll speak for myself and only myself, though what I'm saying might apply to others.  I'm not going to put words in other people's mouths, but if you think what I'm about to say applies to others, please apply it.

I have consistently predicted bad things for Russia and good things for Ukraine, the world, and oddly enough even Russians in the future (rehabilitation is a long road, but they have to start to get there).  The war has largely tracked as predicted, generally and often very specifically.  I think I've earned some street cred here for this track record.

Yet as soon as I look forward and say "OK, we're at a junction and what lies down some of the road options is really scary, so let's evaluate them" it's dismissed as some sort of back peddling, giving into Russian pressure, and any number of fairly reactionary nonsense.  As if I've suddenly lost my confidence in everything I've been so confident about over the past 6 months.  I see attacking the messenger more than the message in quite a few posts made over the past few pages.

Does anybody see this as problematic?  I for sure do.  I don't think some sort of apology is in order for such treatment, but I think some introspection by some people about how they reacted is appropriate.

Again, I am just speaking for myself.  Apply to others as you feel appropriate.

Steve

 

[BlackMoria]

I always think of this quote, in moments like this.

"The future is all around us, waiting in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation.  No one know the shape of that future ...or where it will take us.  We know only, that it is always born... in pain."

G'Kar

Za'ha'dum, Babylon 5

Edited September 22, 2022 by BlackMoria

[G.I. Joe]

5 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

I always think of this quote, in moments like this.

"The future is all around us, waiting in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation.  No one know the shape of that future ...or where it will take us.  We know only, that it is always born... in pain."

G'Kar

Za'ha'dum, Babylon 5

+1 out of reactions.

An old favourite of mine:

"It is senseless to try to avenge history, just as it is senseless to mock it. One must understand it. The past is irretrievable. The present is incomplete. The future has already begun."

-Dmitri Volkogonov, Autopsy For An Empire: The Seven Leaders Who Built the Soviet Regime

[G.I. Joe]

27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Lethaface has it correct in his post above, summarized as:

Correct. Since the start of this thread we've had a frank discussion about the realities of this war (as best we can) and plenty of guesswork as to what might come next.  I'll speak for myself and only myself, though what I'm saying might apply to others.  I'm not going to put words in other people's mouths, but if you think what I'm about to say applies to others, please apply it.

I have consistently predicted bad things for Russia and good things for Ukraine, the world, and oddly enough even Russians in the future (rehabilitation is a long road, but they have to start to get there).  The war has generally tracked as predicted, generally and often very specifically.  I think I've earned some street cred here for this track record.

Yet as soon as I look forward and say "OK, we're at a junction and what lies down some of the road options is really scary, so let's evaluate them" it's dismissed as some sort of back peddling, giving into Russian pressure, and any number of fairly reactionary nonsense.  As if I've suddenly lost my confidence in everything I've been so confident about over the past 6 months.  I see attacking the messenger more than the message in quite a few posts made over the past few pages.

Does anybody see this as problematic?  I for sure do.  I don't think some sort of apology is in order for such treatment, but I think some introspection by some people about how they reacted is appropriate.

Again, I am just speaking for myself.  Apply to others as you feel appropriate.

Steve

 

+1

Well said.

Any war is, by definition, a disaster. There is never an ideal outcome, there are only less terrible ones.

[chuckdyke]

A civil war in Russia? Could be the end of the Ukraine war. Far from an ideal outcome. 

[Battlefront.com]

To reiterate a reason Ukraine, and by extension the West, can afford to think ahead...

Russia has lost this war already.  I said that before the first shot was fired and stuck to that message after Putin pulled the trigger.  NOTHING that Ukraine does or doesn't do from now on changes that.  Even if Ukraine were to lose all of the terrain it recaptured since March, Russia has still lost this war because it lost more than it gained.

Let's look at one of the biggest losses for Russia so far... the ability to use its military as a tool of foreign policy.

Russia has twice told us that it's military was reformed and rebuilt to a higher standard.  Twice the establishment, aided by a paid influence campaign, convinced people that Russia was to be feared because it was so devastatingly capable.  Obviously that wasn't true.

Let's say that Ukraine surrenders tomorrow because it woke up on the wrong side of the bed.  Let's say that the West cancels all sanctions by afternoon and minutes later restores all previous energy purchases at January 2021 levels at full market value.  Let's also say that Putin is ousted by a more competent Imperialist leader sometime in the late evening of the same day.  And finally, that everybody in Russia's Near Abroad and at home fully support the new regime and any sacrifices it asks of it.

Assuming all of this, how many years do you think it will take for Russia to rebuild its military capacity to roughly where most people thought it was in February 2022?  3-5 years?  Assuming all the things I just wrote, I think it would be possible if it diverted most of its GDP to replacing all the hardware and supplies it lost.

The next question to ask is if anybody would fear Russia's military again without verified reforms.  I think the likely answer is "No".  OK, how about a complete rebuild with Russia claiming "we really did reform this time.  Honest!".  Unless you are one of that are still pushing some form of the Russia-is-great-even-though-there's-no-evidence-it-is narrative, I'm guessing you won't be inclined to believe it.

What does this mean?  Even under the most gloriously crazy best case scenario for Russia, it's military is no longer a credible tool for its expansionist desires for many years to come. That leaves only it's underhanded means of achieving what it wants through FSB/GRU activities.  Both of these things require gobs of money and that can't happen until sanctions are lifted (and for the underhanded stuff, a return to unregulated money moves).

Conclusion -> Russia's dreams of imperial expansion are dead for the foreseeable future no matter what happens with this war.  Shouldn't this be taken into consideration when figuring out what options are available OTHER than brute force liberation of Crimea?  I for sure think it should be.

Steve

[FancyCat]

Very long thread, aircraft hardened bunkers require multiple missiles to take out each bunker, Russia seems very reluctant to invest the number of missiles needed to take out the ZSU. Their missile stockpile and/or ability to restock it is not enough to make eliminating the ZSU worth it. Limited ISR and C4ISR limit the ability for strikes.

Not only does it probably have a majority of aircraft still operational, several major air bases still operate despite limited attacks on them. Unclear how General Hecker is defining the 80% but it could be true if all manned helo and aircraft were included in the figure.

 

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

To reiterate the reason for the notes of caution.

Russia has lost this war already.  I said that before the first shot was fired and stuck to that message since Putin fired the first shot.  NOTHING that Ukraine does or doesn't do from now on changes that.  Even if Ukraine were to lose all of the terrain it recaptured since March, Russia has still lost this war because it lost more than it gained.

Let's look at one of the biggies... the ability for Russia to use its military as a tool of foreign policy.

Russia has twice told us that it's military was reformed and rebuilt to a higher standard.  Twice the establishment, aided by a paid influence campaign, convinced people that Russia was to be feared.  Obviously that wasn't true.

Let's say that Ukraine surrenders tomorrow because it woke up on the wrong side of the bed.  Let's say that the West cancels all sanctions by afternoon and restores all previous energy purchases at January 2021 levels at full market value minutes later.  Let's also say that Putin is ousted by a more competent Imperialist leader sometime in the late evening of the same day.  And finally, that everybody in Russia's Near Abroad and at home fully support the new regime.

Assuming all of this, how many years do you think it will take for Russia to rebuild its military capacity to roughly where most people thought it was in February 2022?  3-5 years?  Assuming all the things I just wrote, I think it would be possible if it diverted most of its GDP to replacing all the hardware and supplies it lost.

The next question to ask is if anybody would fear Russia's military again without verified reforms.  I think the likely answer is "No".  OK, how about a complete rebuild with Russia claiming "we really did reform this time.  Honest!".  Unless you are one of that are still pushing some form of the Russia-is-great narrative we earlier in the war, I'm guessing you won't be inclined to believe it.

What does this mean?  Even under the most gloriously crazy best case scenario for Russia, it's military is no longer a credible tool for its expansionist desires for many years to come. That leaves only it's underhanded means of achieving what it wants through FSB/GRU activities.  Both of these things require gobs of money and that can't happen until sanctions are lifted (and for the underhanded stuff, a return to unregulated money moves).

Conclusion -> Russia's dreams of imperial expansion are dead for the foreseeable future no matter what happens with this war.  That should be part of the calculations when deciding if Ukraine going into Crimea any time soon is a good goal to shoot for.

Steve

All of this absolutely true, but it almost cuts both ways in term of Ukraine taking Crimea back. Because if they get it without setting off a nuclear exchange, and OK that is literally one of the bigger IFS in human history, Russia isn't getting it back this century.

[Battlefront.com]

I recommend reading ISW's first page of the report from Sept 21.  They used their usual solid insight and assessment about the mobilization announcements and of the nuclear threat.  In short, it wasn't anything new either in words (definitely true) or in the context of this specific speech (they make a good case for that).  Putin's speech was undoubtedly scrutinized to the n'th degree before he presented it.  I think ISW is onto something about the context in which the nuclear threat was made.  It was for domestic audience consumption, especially those who have worked themselves into a delusional frenzy that NATO is going to nuke Russia or give Ukraine nukes so it can hit Russia.

As I speculated about earlier, I think it was this process of writing Putin's speech that caused the delay.  Someone of significant power objected to some wording and things had to be negotiated. Putin only spoke after he was sure that power bloc (or blocs!) was happy with the final text.

Steve

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

You Eagles fans are... dedicated.  Yes, that's the word I have very carefully chosen to use.

Although a comparatively small thing in comparison to your friend's heroism, honoring him with your Forum name is quite touching.  Thank you for sharing.

Steve

Steve, thank you for both your - carefully chosen words! - and your kind welcome. I had intended a more conventional first post but red lines are useless if they are not observed! But in all seriousness, thank you Steve for your even-handed oversight and your always thoughtful, insightful observations. I’m sure most of us have seen other beloved sim forums blown to kingdom come. Gone, due to escalating fire fights. Which also means much gratitude to all the far flung members here. You have somehow, someway managed to conduct some times heated debates and discussions of profound import (Philly vs Dallas, for example) with world class, possibly world beating respectfulness.

Thank you all for the education and community. I have managed to convert at least one instructor at the CGSC into a CMBS “How Hot” thread addict. 

Edited September 22, 2022 by NamendedAllen
punctuation

[Battlefront.com]

30 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Steve, thank you for both your - carefully chosen words! - and your kind welcome. I had intended a more conventional first post but red lines are useless if they are not observed! But in all seriousness, thank you Steve for your even-handed oversight and your always thoughtful, insightful observations. I’m sure most of us have seen other beloved sim forums blown to kingdom come. Gone, due to escalating fire fights. Which also means much gratitude to all the far flung members here. You have somehow, someway managed to conduct some times heated debates and discussions of profound import (Philly vs Dallas, for example) with world class, possibly world beating respectfulness.

Benevolent moderation of public forums is usually necessary for any discussion to flourish.  I'm certainly not perfect at it, but I do try!  It's always gratifying to know that my efforts are at least acceptable.

30 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Thank you all for the education and community. I have managed to convert at least one instructor at the CGSC into a CMBS “How Hot” thread addict. 

Thanks!  Funny enough, I just got back from the DC area.  I knew an instructor at Fort Belvoir and was looking forward to seeing him for the first time in way too many years.  Contacted him a couple of months ago and discovered the bastard retired and was scheduled to move well outside of the area about 3 weeks ago.  It's as if he knew I was coming down his way before I did

Steve

P.S.  I just learned something.  If any of you miscreants out there want to instantly improve your Forum's reputation scores, just praise the Eagles.  Cripes, this new guy above is more respected than some of you with hundreds of posts to your names.  Eagles fans are... dedicated.

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

As one who has held his tongue reading EVERY SINGLE PAGE thru 1,40freaking2 of this unprecedented and now legendary thread - despite all the numerous assertions with no evidence except (well informed) opinions about the past…and despite the important and profound debates on morality and ethical conduct during and after war…and the demonstrated courage and sacrifice of a nation standing up to one of the all time biggest bullies in history…and the terrific analyses of the ebb and flow of the front lines…and the historical and cultural explanations…all without daring to stick my only neck out - THIS CROSSED THE RED LINE! Loyalty DEMANDS solidarity!

FLY, EAGLES, FLY! COWBOYS, BYE BYE!
 

 

PS forum name is in honor of my first childhood best friend, who refused to abandon a downed severely wounded black ops pilot as time ran out on a mission up North. Cost him dearly the rest of his life - ended too soon. Clear skies, Allen. Never forgotten.

 

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Benevolent moderation of public forums is usually necessary for any discussion to flourish.  I'm certainly not perfect at it, but I do try!  It's always gratifying to know that my efforts are at least acceptable.

Thanks!  Funny enough, I just got back from the DC area.  I knew an instructor at Fort Belvoir and was looking forward to seeing him for the first time in way too many years.  Contacted him a couple of months ago and discovered the bastard retired and was scheduled to move well outside of the area about 3 weeks ago.  It's as if he knew I was coming down his way before I did

Steve

P.S.  I just learned something.  If any of you miscreants out there want to instantly improve your Forum's reputation scores, just praise the Eagles.  Cripes, this new guy above is more respected than some of you with hundreds of posts to your names.  Eagles fans are... dedicated.

Well when we want his friend at CGSC to turn off the cloaking device and join the discussion it behooves us to be nice to him...

[Battlefront.com]

I only skimmed the text, but this article has some very clear pictures of crackdowns on the first wave of protests:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11234849/Russians-race-flee-country-flights-sell-terrified-civilians-dreading-military-call-up.html

It seems that even upper middle class Russians can't leave Russia to pretty much anywhere.  Not just because some counties are closing their borders, but because Russia won't let them out.  It seems Russia has returned to nearly Soviet levels of control over the external movement of its people.  Internal movement is not far behind, in part because air travel is getting progressively harder to find.

Steve