How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, Maquisard manqué said:

Not sure the EU had managed to avoid Hungary or Polands slide away from democratic liberty. What would make Ukraine different? Tbh the fact Ukraine has currently such a long way to go to acceding to the EU is almost all about it’s systems of governance and their robustness (or lack of) to corrosion/corruption. So I’m not sure there’s a lot of blind faith in Ukraine…

Zelensky and his govt have impressed, but what if the next lot are different?
 

NATO membership is in some ways much simpler. Who are your troops going to fight and how reliable are they? How much do we need you? (Why yes please join us Turkey)

Sorry but this narrative gets me irritated ( to keep with the allowed vocabulary :P). What stops FR from voting Le Pen into the president's office? The BREXIT people in UK? UE has this general problem with democracy, which unfortunately leads to various non-liberals being chosen ( by the unwashed hoi polloi, I'm first to admit it). 
In no way I see UA being more problematic than other members here, why would they? If anything, they are more motivated to keep in line, at least for the time being.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Huba

[keas66]

Just now, poesel said:

You remember how THAT ended?

 Well  ...yes  ... obviously not an ideal solution at all  . A time limited Expedient solution maybe that likely would cause further  problems down the line ...

[Haiduk]

Rare Russian T-72B modification - T-72B3 mod.2014, as became knowingly participated in assault of Bohorodychne village on 7th of July. You could see the video, where several Russian tanks, stand in line, after blowing up on mines and one tank moves further and also blows up. 

T-72B3 mod.2014 were build in small number specially for tank biathlone and diverses with tall panoramic sight of commander in the middle of turrert and 1130 hp engine. Author names them also T-72B4, but I think this is mistake. 

 

Here small thread of soldier, who participated in this battle:

Theese tanks in number at least three attacked our positions in Bohorodychne among tank company-size unit of 11-13 tanks. But not all Russians have blown up - 5 vehicles have passed minefield and driven to our platoon strongpoint. We fuc..d them with AT-4s and Matadors, but without result. Russians also shelled us with guns and MG also without destructions. By the way, the first tank in column was T-72B without any Z or V and in colors, close to our painting. After our "passionate" greetings, enemy tanks have just driven further and through some time turned back, blowing up on mines on the same place through that they came to us.... All three T-72B3 mod.2014 remained on battlefield

This one almost ok

This one slightly damaged, but can be repaired

This T-72B3 mod 2014 was destroyed

Edited September 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

24 minutes ago, Eddy said:

This is a good thread 

I was going to summarize it but to be honest it deserves a full read. It's about many of the implications of the mobilisation which I hadn't even considered, and then touches on battlefield nuclear weapon usage briefly at the end. 

This is a very sober and to the point analysis, thanks for linking it.

[sross112]

One of my favorite things about Ukraine is their state level trolling of Russia.

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

N Ireland is a good example.  It is occupied Irish territory.  Ireland was conquered by England but had never conceded to that occupation. In the case of N Ireland it was a matter of how bad they wanted full national integrity or the ability to move on finally as an independent nation state after centuries of occupation.  The net result for England has been a continuing political football with a disproportionate impact on English politics and a political/military pain that just keeps on giving.

Close...but there's some differences that change this description.

e.g.:

1 hour ago, sburke said:

N Ireland is a good example.  It is occupied Irish territory.  Ireland was conquered by England but had never conceded to that occupation. 

Correct, the local Irish population never conceded (we did submit, sorta) but a "foreign" demography was deliberately inserted into the population that effectively muddied the waters - the 16/17th century plantations were an overt and deliberate attempt to replace the local Irish population with colonies of pro-England English or Scots, who could help keep the locals in line, act as an auxiliary/police force and reinforce any rebel-squishing English army. Local knowledge is vital in terrain like the North. These "planters" were the nucleus of the later, modern Loyalist population. 

1 hour ago, sburke said:

In the case of N Ireland it was a matter of how bad they wanted full national integrity or the ability to move on finally as an independent nation state after centuries of occupation.  

To clarify, this is the position and intent of the pro-Republic section of the population:  "full national integrity (as part of Rep. of Ireland) or the ability to move on finally as an independent nation state (i.e. as a united Rep. of. Ireland) after centuries of occupation" are really the same thing, in the terms of NI politics.

By contrast, the Loyalist (pro-UK) sector of the NI population does not want independence. It wants to remain part of the United Kingdom, either as a province (more extremist position) or as a self-governing region (like Wales). But very much still under the Crown, King Big Ears and all.

For a long time the smaller Loyalist (and 99% Protestant) population had controlled the political system in NI. That control and the civil/cultural/political suppression of the larger Republican (and 98% Catholic)¹ following from it was what lead to the explosion of the Troubles in the 70s and the emergence of the Provisional IRA.

True democracy (albeit in a weirdly and absurdly convoluted form²) only became possible when the IRA agreed to disarm and the Loyalists reluctantly agreed to this more fair political system³. There was a lot of yelling from the more right-wing side of the Loyalists that a more fair system would lead inevitably to their loss of power and the separation of NI from the United Kingdom.

And they were right - the first part has absolutely happened (Sinn Fein, the primary Republican party, now holds the strings of power) and the second part is considered by many to be inevitable - at the very least as a referendum. Considering the majority of the population is pro-Republic, overwhelming wants to be part of the EU (of which Ireland is part and will never, ever leave) and the UK has Brexited out and into a very bad, relentless recession, well, methinks that future referendum wont hold many surprises...

1 hour ago, sburke said:

The net result for England has been a continuing political football with a disproportionate impact on English politics and a political/military pain that just keeps on giving.

Very true, even as far back as 1914, although the military aspect has certainly faded away. The watch towers are gone and the barbed wire has rusted away. But the messiness of NI was a serious problem during the Brexit process and tbh, I'm unclear about the detailed mechanics of the NI/Irish border crossing but I do know that the EU ensured its economic border security at the expense of UK(read Loyalist) political needs. 

----

The take away from this,  ref UKR,  is that a conquered population must feel immediate release through a clear and fair political process. If UKR re-conquers the Donbass and emplaces the same political system as exists within Ukraine proper, with certain temporary amendments (eg. specific parties and objectives outlawed for a decade, no russian money or visits) and strong international oversight then itll be difficult for any insurgency to last.

Conversely, political or civil suppression of the Donbass population as "punishment" would enflame any insurgency and destroy any potential of trust for decades and guarantee further

----

¹NI Demographics

²Northern Ireland Executive

³TBF, the Loyalists were by then counter-weighted by a middle-ground party, who worked with SF and less hard-line Loyalist factions to arrive at teh Good Friday agreement. Another player was the Irish Government, which naturally had an interest in stopping violence north of the border.

 

 

 

Edited September 22, 2022 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

MobiliZation

[Kinophile]

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

[MikeyD]

Does Russia have the capacity to even remotely feed, clothe and train all of these conscripts? Especially since they're cannibalizing the very industries they'd need to support them. One gets the impression nobody's thought beyond 'conscripting'. They'll probably get dumped into the middle of a field somewhere and be exposed to the elements for days on end.

[dan/california]

38 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Rare Russian T-72B modification - T-72B3 mod.2014, as became knowingly participated in assault of Bohorodychne village on 7th of July. You could see the video, where several Russian tanks, stand in line, after blowing up on mines and one tank moves further and also blows up. 

T-72B3 mod.2014 were build in small number specially for tank biathlone and diverses with tall panoramic sight of commander in the middle of turrert and 1130 hp engine. Author names them also T-72B4, but I think this is mistake. 

 

Here small thread of soldier, who participated in this battle:

Theese tanks in number at least three attacked our positions in Bohorodychne among tank company-size unit of 11-13 tanks. But not all Russians have blown up - 5 vehicles have passed minefield and driven to our platoon strongpoint. We fuc..d them with AT-4s and Matadors, but without result. Russians also shelled us with guns and MG also without destructions. By the way, the first tank in column was T-72B without any Z or V and in colors, close to our painting. After our "passionate" greetings, enemy tanks have just driven further and through some time turned back, blowing up on mines on the same place through that they came to us.... All three T-72B3 mod.2014 remained on battlefield

This one almost ok

This one slightly damaged, but can be repaired

This T-72B3 mod 2014 was destroyed

Two things stand out about this story. The GREAT importance of anti tank mines in this war. And the fact the the AFU held their positions even when their anti tank wasn't working brilliantly and convinced the Russians to go away. That takes real soldiers.

People arguing for going doubling the price of tanks AGAIN with with anti drone lasers and such need an answer for mines. Because unless I missed something the latest M-1s get mission killed just as fast as a T-62 when they run over one, although their crew survival is much better. We won't give them time to lay them is not a very good answer.

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

People arguing for going doubling the price of tanks AGAIN with with anti drone lasers and such need an answer for mines. Because unless I missed something the latest M-1s get mission killed just as fast as a T-62 when they run over one, although their crew survival is much better. We won't give them time to lay them is not a very good answer

I keep wondering what happens when someone invents a minefield with legs, or flies...or both.  Dumb ones in the ground are bad enough, what happens when they become sentient?

[Maquisard manqué]

53 minutes ago, Huba said:

Sorry but this narrative gets me irritated ( to keep with the allowed vocabulary :P). What stops FR from voting Le Pen into the president's office? The BREXIT people in UK? UE has this general problem with democracy, which unfortunately leads to various non-liberals being chosen ( by the unwashed hoi polloi, I'm first to admit it). 
In no way I see UA being more problematic than other members here, why would they? If anything, they are more motivated to keep in line, at least for the time being.

Well the point is about much more than elections. It’s the checks and balances that prevent too much power being exercised by anyone, but especially the crackpots, that are what this is really about. What’s so shocking (and unusual) about Brexit and Trump is how far both went/go despite the systems. What the ruling parties, with significant majorities, in Poland and Hungary have done is hollow out the checks and balances that protect minorities and preserve a measure of stability. Lots of the checks in a mature democracy are quite intangible - convention, rather than what’s inked in the constitution.

Edit: War and ‘temporary measures’ are a more respectable justification for checks and balances to be eroded. A further reason for why some of the ideas about the peace are hair raising - what could happen without those protections?

Edited September 22, 2022 by Maquisard manqué

[sburke]

30 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Close...but there's some differences that change this description.

Thanks for the detail.  It adds to my point.  The demographics impact the political decisions.  And yeah back in my younger days I was a provo supporter.  The Dead did a song back in 81 during a Madison Sq Garden show in memory of Bobby Sands as well.  One of their very few blatantly political statements.

On the subject of demographics this is also Israel's greatest fear.  The population growth of the Palestinian population exceeds that of the non-Arab population.  And yes I did say Palestinian without quotes.

Personally, I don't think Ukraine should do a vote on the occupied territories.  That would be a concession to all that Russia has done and legitimizes their aggression.  I do think they could consider a UN mandate (sorry @The_Capt for the bad word) for a limited time to sort things out after which it fully reverts to Ukraine.

[Huba]

11 minutes ago, Maquisard manqué said:

Well the point is about much more than elections. It’s the checks and balances that prevent too much power being exercised by anyone, but especially the crackpots, that are what this is really about. What’s so shocking (and unusual) about Brexit and Trump is how far both went/go despite the systems. What the ruling parties, with significant majorities, in Poland and Hungary have done is hollow out the checks and balances that protect minorities and preserve a measure of stability. Lots of the checks in a mature democracy are quite intangible - convention, rather than what’s inked in the constitution.

Edit: War and ‘temporary measures’ are a more respectable justification for checks and balances to be eroded. A further reason for why some of the ideas about that the peace are hair raising.

Regarding UA specifically, they will have to get all this stuff right before they join. I can imagine some shortcuts being taken in economic sphere perhaps, or in some minutiae of the law, but the basics have to be there.
Speaking more broadly, I think we are back to the inherent weakness of democracy as such, namely our ability to vote in some kind of Austrian painter. In essence I don't see how we could save ourselves from that, apart from being a decent people and society. And, as a declared optimist, I think it works pretty good for the West as a whole, with some notable exceptions (Poland included lately ).
One positive thought for the near future I think (partially of the tinfoil kind) is that most of greatest insults to the democratic system we chose lately (including Trump, Brexit party, Orban, perhaps even PiS in Poland) were to a degree an effect of RU meddling in our affairs. I don't see how this continue in the future, I'm sure that anybody that can be even remotely connected to Russia will be burned from the get go, at least in general. And especially in CEE - any RU connections are lava around here lately.
 

 

Edited September 22, 2022 by Huba

[The_Capt]

37 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

Does Russia have the capacity to even remotely feed, clothe and train all of these conscripts? Especially since they're cannibalizing the very industries they'd need to support them. One gets the impression nobody's thought beyond 'conscripting'. They'll probably get dumped into the middle of a field somewhere and be exposed to the elements for days on end.

Ok, on mobilization.  I hope I am not repeating myself too much but my assessment is that it won't help Russia much at this point in the war.  If they were serious they should have done whatever this is back in March.  Why?

- It does not fix the Russian operational system, in fact it might make it worse.  The Russian logistical and C4ISR systems are already strained under the current load, and the UA are not making life easier by hitting them all over the place.  Adding another 300k troops to that system, may do as much damage as HIMARs on a good day.  This is everything from uniforms, weapons, equipment, food/water/consumables and medical support - dear gawd, the medical support plan just got burned badly.  Further, unless Russia is recruiting from a 5 EYES nation or possible China, they are not going to get the technical expertise to even start to try and get their C4ISR to a competitive level.  I am sure Russia has switched on tech savvy young people but intake into these trades is not quick or easy.  Nor is getting the equipment they need to do the job.  No, my bet is that IT specialist is going to wind up in a freezing trench with a Cold War era AK-47.

- It does not fix the joint force - which for Russia may as well be a magical/mythical concept along with fairies and functional democracy.  It takes years to create pilot and air weapons controllers, let alone integrating that at an operational level.  Maritime crews are in the same boat (bah-dump, bump).  So 300k barely trained infantry are not going to solve the lack of joint force integration in the RA.

- It does not create offensive capability.  Even if the RA could magically create the logistics and C4ISR system to support them.  Turning 300k individual troops into fighting units and formations is a very large time bill.  We are talking Lvl 1 - 7 training, to start with. Training formation staff that can actually plan and synchronize offensive operations is also a years long effort. This mobilization creates, at best (or worse, depending on how one looks at it), defensive capability.  Which means that with the exception of tactical surges, the operationally offensive phase for the RA in this was is likely over.  I strongly suspect this signals a "dig in and hold onto whatever ground you can so Putin can call it a win" warfare for Russia from here on out. 

- It creates massive political exposure.  Hence why I think this is endgame.  It forces people who wanted to sit on the sidelines into the fire.  It puts pressure on home front that wasn't there before.  It is the last card in conventional warfare, done in desperation to try and keep things afloat.  The equation is upside down for Russia on this.  It cannot create wins on the battlefield, and will only create losses politically.  Were I Steve, I would call it the death spiral.  

- This is 2022, not 1941.  The lethality of warfare is frankly pants-wettingly scary.  300k poorly trained and equipped troops are going to get cut to pieces by modern precision artillery backed up with ISR of the gods.  It is going to be brutal and nasty.  These units are going to have a very rough time of it and their morale is going to iffy from the start.  That, or they will feed these poor sods in as replacements into existing line units, which does nothing for cohesion.  You can integrate replacements but you need a period of unit integration, and I am doubting the RA has that time.  I am betting RSOMI is going to look like the opening of Enemy at the Gates.

- Last point, it does not change the simple fact that also unlike 1941 these lads are not fighting on Russian soil.  No matter how many times Putin or the generals say it, they are not stupid.  They are in a foreign country dying for "what?"  exactly.  Conscript troops will fight and die like mad dogs for their homes and families.  Fighting over a few yards in a country that isn't theirs is the land of professional militaries with years of training and experience.  There are plenty of examples from Afghanistan back in the 80s to back this up.

So basically, mobilization is not a sign of much beyond just how bad thing have gotten on the RA side.  My bet is that casualty rates are in the higher ranges we have seen.  300k is not enough to cover the now-700 km frontage in any kind of depth, so hardpoints and isolated fort is the likely plan.

The only question I have left is - how much time does it actually buy the RA?  

 

Edited September 22, 2022 by The_Capt

[Maquisard manqué]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

Regarding UA specifically, they will have to get all this stuff right before they join. I can imagine some shortcuts being taken in economic sphere perhaps, or in some minutiae of the law, but the basics have to be there.
Speaking more broadly, I think we are back to the inherent weakness of democracy as such, namely our ability to vote in some kind of Austrian painter. In essence I don't see how we could save ourselves from that, apart from being a decent people and society. And, as a declared optimist, I think it works pretty good for the West as a whole, with some notable exceptions (Poland included lately ).
One positive thought for the near future I think (partially of the tinfoil kind) is that most of greatest insults to the democratic system we chose lately (including Trump, Brexit party, Orban, perhaps even PiS in Poland) were to a degree an effect of RU meddling in our affairs. I don't see how this continue in the future, I'm sure that anybody that can be even remotely connected to Russia will be burned from the get go, at least in general. And especially in CEE - any RU connections are lava around here lately.
 

 

Yes, agreed. But I guess that’s why blind faith in “the right thing” happening doesn’t seem wise or appropriate, however great Zelensky and his govt has been so far.

Think the thread has already treated the discomfort of those having taken RU cash, which may remain touchy and I’m happy not to return to!

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, NamEndedAllen said:

I tried. Concerns about sorting the contradictory thicket of work rules about posting on social media have already ended his prolific sim and other related internet articles from ten or fifteen years ago. Which I reluctantly admitted weren’t awful. Even tried a threat that Aragorn and LongLeftFlank might pay him a persuasive “visit”.  He remains unmoved. Honestly, it’s too bad. He has experience pertaining to this thread that would be of interest. 

Thanks for trying.  I understand his sensitivity to rules.  As interesting as it would be to have his knowledge put into this stew pot discussion, I'd rather him use that experience to teach officers whatever it is he teaches.  This war has emphasized how important professionalism and training is.

Steve

[Haiduk]

@sburke

"Lt.colonel" of DPR, Aleksey Veremeev. Cadre officer of Soviet army. Citizen of Ukraine. In 2014 was a brigade chief of staff deputy of communication in 3rd MRB "Oplot" of DPR in rank of major. Was killed on 17th of Sep in Kherson oblast. I doubt that 3rd MRB elements were involved near Kherson, so likely this "lt.colonel" was appointed to command a battlion of DPR mobiks.

 

Lt.colonel Aleksandr Aksyonov, 18th army aviaation brigade of 11th AF/AD Army of Eastern Military District. Brigade is deployed on Khabarovsk-Tsentralnyi airfield of Khabarovsk region and equipped with Mi-8AMTSh, Mi-26 and a squadron of Ka-52. Some time ago Aksyonov was "zampolit" of brigade in the rank of mayor. Got lost in September, when his Ka-52 was shot down. His navigator also got lost

Lt.colonel Oleg Tkachyov, unit unknown. Got lost on 19th Sep

 

Edited September 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

dear gawd, the medical support plan just got burned badly.

You say that like they ever had one. When we finally get some real stats, years from now, I will bet you a case of good beer the Russian medical performance is not much better than the Union army in the U.S. Civil War. It wouldn't shock me if it was worse. These god cursed mobiks are going to die from things that result in a weeks light duty in a NATO army. Never mind living through a real wound. I am expecting real disease outbreaks too. We need to double check if Ukraine needs any support with vaccines. 

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Eddy said:

I was going to summarize it but to be honest it deserves a full read. It's about many of the implications of the mobilisation which I hadn't even considered, and then touches on battlefield nuclear weapon usage briefly at the end. 

Really a good read. He describes the short and long term effects that the mobilizations has on the Russian people and culture. TL;DR: it's really bad.

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, on mobilization.  I hope I am not repeating myself too much but my assessment is that it won't help Russia much at this point in the war.  If they were serious they should have done whatever this is back in March.  Why?

- It does not fix the Russian operational system, in fact it might make it worse.  The Russian logistical and C4ISR systems are already strained under the current load, and the UA are not making life easier by hitting them all over the place.  Adding another 300k troops to that system, may do as much damage as HIMARs on a good day.  This is everything from uniforms, weapons, equipment, food/water/consumables and medical support - dear gawd, the medical support plan just got burned badly.  Further, unless Russia is recruiting from a 5 EYES nation or possible China, they are not going to get the technical expertise to even start to try and get their C4ISR to a competitive level.  I am sure Russia has switched on tech savvy young people but intake into these trades is not quick or easy.  Nor is getting the equipment they need to do the job.  No, my bet is that IT specialist are going to wind up in a freezing trench with a Cold War era AK-47.

- It does not fix the joint force - which for Russia may as well be a magical/mythical concept along with fairies and functional democracy.  It takes years to create pilot and air weapons controllers, let alone integrating that at an operational level.  Maritime crews are in the same boat.  So 300k barely trained infantry are not going to solve the lack of joint force integration in the RA.

- It does not create offensive capability.  Even if the RA could magically create the logistics and C4ISR system to support them.  Turning 300k individual troops into fighting units and formations is a very large time bill.  We are talking Lvl 1 - 7 training, to start with. Training formation staff that can actually plan and synchronize offensive operations is also a years long effort. This mobilization creates, at best (or worse, depending on how one looks at it), defensive capability.  Which means that with the exception of tactical surges, the operationally offensive phase for the RA in this was is likely over.  I strongly suspect this signals a "dig in and hold onto whatever ground you can so Putin can call it a win" warfare for Russia from here on out. 

- It creates massive political exposure.  Hence why I think this is endgame.  It forces people who wanted to sit on the sidelines into the fire.  It puts pressure on home front that wasn't there before.  It is the last card in conventional warfare, done in desperation to try and keep things afloat.  The equation is upside down for Russia on this.  It cannot create wins on the battlefield, and will only create losses politically.  Were I Steve, I would call it the death spiral.  

- This is 2022, not 1941.  The lethality of warfare is frankly pants-wettingly scary.  300k poorly trained and equipped troops are going to get cut to pieces by modern precision artillery backed up with ISR of the gods.  It is going to be brutal and nasty.  These units are going to have a very rough time of it and their morale is going to iffy from the start.  That, or they will feed these poor sods in as replacements into existing line units, which does nothing for cohesion.  You can integrate replacements but you need a period of unit integration, and I am doubting the RA has that time.  I am betting RSOMI is going to look like the opening of Enemy at the Gates.

- Last point, it does not change the simple fact that also unlike 1941 these lads are not fighting on Russian soil.  No matter how many times Putin or the generals say it, they are not stupid.  They are in a foreign country dying for "what?"  exactly.  Conscript troops will fight and die like mad dogs for their homes and families.  Over a few yards in a country that isn't theirs is the land of professional militaries with years of training and experience.  There are plenty of examples from Afghanistan back in the 80s to back this up.

So basically, mobilization is not a sign of much beyond just how bad thing have gotten on the RA side.  My bet is that casualty rates are in the higher ranges we have seen.  300k is not enough to cover the now-700 km frontage in any kind of depth, so hardpoints and isolated fort is the likely plan.

 

Geeze man, you forgot to mention Russia has no officers to lead this rabble.  Even if they filter them into existing units, the existing units are already short on officers.  They might function OK now simply because they are also short on basic soldiers.  Adding one and not the other is a recipe for disaster.

Not only does the lack of officers preclude these units from being employed in any militarily significant way, it also ensures large chunks of these guys are going to simply walk over to the Ukrainian side at the first opportunity.  This will happen exponentially as things go from bad to worse at the front.

To summarize... these guys aren't going to get trained, they won't receive decent equipment, and leadership will be minimal at best.

Cannon fodder without a real purpose.

Steve

[poesel]

17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The only question I have left is - how much time does it actually buy the RA? 

Long enough until the gas/coal/electricity bills land in European mailboxes and people will riot on the streets, demanding to take the sanctions back.

That's IMHO the plan. I fail to see any other use. I also fail to see it succeeding.

[G.I. Joe]

17 minutes ago, dan/california said:

You say that like they ever had one. When we finally get some real stats, years from now, I will bet you a case of good beer the Russian medical performance is not much better than the Union army in the U.S. Civil War. It wouldn't shock me if it was worse. These god cursed mobiks are going to die from things that result in a weeks light duty in a NATO army. Never mind living through a real wound. I am expecting real disease outbreaks too. We need to double check if Ukraine needs any support with vaccines. 

+1

Agreed... wouldn't be surprised if it's closer in some places to the Confederate army.

Edited September 22, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[Battlefront.com]

Seems pretty clear to me that this mobilization is NOT what was stated in yesterday's announcement.  This is rushed, it is desperate, it is seemingly random.  However, that is just how it appears from an outsider standpoint.  I think what we're seeing is very rationale and has been fairly well planned out (well, by Russian standards).  This plan is designed to accommodate the political situation that Putin has tried so hard to avoid.

A mobilization blitzkrieg, as we are seeing now, reduces the chances that protest and counter measures by the populace.  The plan, as it appears to be playing out, is to grab as many men as possible, as quickly as possible, from the outlying areas before they can scatter and organize to avoid getting picked up.

This is bound to produce a much larger reaction to mobilization than the standard methodology, which likely means the situation at the front is even worse than we think it is.  I really don't think they have anybody to plug the lines in Luhansk.  Not even remotely.

Steve