How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

22 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

We know a little bit more than y

 

 

 

[chuckdyke]

Thanks for the music

[chuckdyke]

14 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

was not really presenting it in accurate context.

If you have to shoot, shoot! Don't talk! My take on putins I am not bluffing. It is not the way to negotiate with the US. 

 

Edited September 22, 2022 by chuckdyke

[Mike Churchmoor]

27 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

And on the border with Finland, things are not very good.

That is old footage and situation at the border is relatively normal.

Check --> https://twitter.com/MPitkaniitty/status/1572824974376960000

Before going back to lurking mode big thanks to everyone contributing to this thread! It has been and it is my main source of INT concerning the situation in hand in eastern Europe.

[Aragorn2002]

53 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Grind whatever axes you need to, mate....

But I *know* you are a student of military history, and are well aware that the Allied Occupation officers, particularly the British, got heartily sick of hearing the wailing self-pity of the postwar German burghers, as though they were just minding their own business when their world caved in....

It shows up in countless memoirs, as well as my own (English) Dad's visit to Frankfurt and Koln in 1948.

Empathy for no-one but themselves, klar?

Like the Russians (or can I call them "orcs" now?) in our time. Alles klar.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[kraze]

49 minutes ago, paxromana said:

But ... but ... but .... according to the new laws just passed, surrendering - or even being captured - is a crime - shades of 1941.

So, unless he wants to shoot the returning soldiers ... double standards, anyone?

Don't forget - russians also claim that they are gonna escalate for Ukraine attacking territories of Russia - meaning, of course, newly occupied territories of Ukraine.

Which, in turn, means that old occupied territories of Belgorod People's Republic, Democratic Republic of Kursk and United Bryansk Emirates are not Russia, because those are getting smashed for quite a while now.

[LongLeftFlank]

22 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Like the Russians (or can I call them "orcs" now?) in our time. Alles klar.

 

 

Fill yer hobnailed boots!

[The_MonkeyKing]

Well, Russians are positioning themselves in a corner.

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Fill yer hobnailed boots!

ExtremeLeftFlank more likely.

Edited September 22, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[LongLeftFlank]

14 hours ago, Haiduk said:

In last two days Pravdyne village in Kherson oblast became an arena of fierce clashes - UKR troops seized the part of village (or even whole) on 18th Sep, but Russians moved there units of 76th air-assault division and counter-attacked, pushed UKR forces back. New attempts of UKR atatcks failed. As result we lost enough armor

 

More on the repelled attack at Pravdyne and Sukhyi Stavok (this is a CM board, after all).  Looks like a mech company got pretty badly cut up by VDV and artillery, although as usual the video jumpcuts make it hard to follow. The wrecks tell most of the story.

1.  This guy is pro-Russian and so the vids are tricksy, but geolocation is pretty good....

 

confirmed, it's this RU tank that brewed up spectacularly in early Sep.

 

 

2. Everybody's favourite defeatist, noting what seems to be an earlier failed attack.

 

 

Edited September 22, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[chuckdyke]

Exactly.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Scraping the Barrel, ep. XXXIV

 

[Billy Ringo]

18 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Also, "West does not have appetite for long war" - West holds all the cards in their hands to make this war shorter. 20 more HIMARS. More arty. More cars, IFVs and tanks. Planes even if Ukraine has to return them.

I wish my country was stronger and we could do more. We already sent what we had I'm pretty sure.

Outside of the US, what countries still have a sizeable amount of expendable military assets to provide to Ukraine that don't cut into their self-preservation?   Have many/most of those resources been tapped out? 

15 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Let me be absolutely clear, because there is likely a language barrier - I do not care what Russia wants or thinks in this regard, it is happening because any hope they had at projecting themselves as a global power started dying at the gates of Kyiv and pretty much collapsed at Kharkiv.  Russia is currently a joke-state, with nukes...yay and it will be a de facto puppet state of the only global power willing to do business with them when the full bill comes due or become North Korea.

 

 

The rest of the world may think Russia is a joke-state, but Russians seem to think they still wield power and influence well above their current pay-grade.  Are they able to fully comprehend they aren't in a position of power and, thus, come to any negotiating table or make strategic economic or military decisions based on some semblance of reality?  I learned, the hard way through recent divorce proceedings, that trying to negotiate with a completely irrational individual is futile.  Their decision making process is not based any form of reasonable logic, thus requiring more drastic measures to force any type of settlement or capitulation.

14 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Anyway, whether we like it or not, all war is negotiation, and we are going to need to negotiate on this one.  .    

Who is there currently to negotiate with in Russia in a meaningful rational manner?   And, IF is there anyone that might be rational, do they have the power and influence to garner internal Russian support across different factions? 

12 hours ago, billbindc said:

That was in this Congressional term. The next, with a House run by folks bitterly opposed to the President, will be different. Do *not* assume smooth sailing. There are rumblings already.

I disagree, Ukraine has solid bipartisan support.  There will be bitter opposition to the President on many issues, but Ukraine will be either off or way down the list of priorities.  The voices of the few who oppose or question Ukrainian support are being magnified beyond their actual influence.

[Huba]

In the meantime, Rybar reports renewed UA offensive operations along the Oskil. He reports partial breakthrough in the Dworichne area and UA trying to envelop RU positions on eastern outskirts of Kupyansk. Details here (autotranslate works).
IMO nothing unexpected is happening, RU forces along Oskil were there to delay, with serious resistance being prepared further east. I think UA will reach Svatove line in upcoming days, and then we'll see if they'll try to continue straight away, or again consolidate.

[Kinophile]

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

Zerg rush incoming (or should I say Sergey rush)

Also there is also lost of speculation because of the seeming scope of the mobilization. Age dispersion seems to be huge.

 

Edited September 22, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[The_Capt]

19 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

Who is there currently to negotiate with in Russia in a meaningful rational manner?   And, IF is there anyone that might be rational, do they have the power and influence to garner internal Russian support across different factions?

In Russia's case, Russia has to negotiate with Russia.  All other negotiation is on the battlefield.  And you are absolutely correct, it is not an entirely rational negotiation.  This is what makes things tense, we have an irrational nuclear power that is losing a war, badly.  I think we are depending on the rationality of the Russian people, which many do point out is problematic.

Do not get me wrong - no matter where we land on a map, Russia needs to lose this war and needs to know it lost the war.  We need it lose and we need it to know it has lost.  We also need it to return to a functional state within the global order (that we built) - tall order.

A lot of the heated debate we have had here is centered on the degree of that loss, and the conditions it will require to make it happen.  This is linked to the degree that Ukraine needs to win - there is what is just and right, and then there is what is politically acceptable/desirable...and those two things rarely line up perfectly.

I personally think that under Putin, Russia will not be able to negotiate out of this war.  It will need a fatal collapse.  The longer Putin remains in power the more stark that collapse will become.  Remove Putin and enough of his power base, and we may be back to more rational players.  However, in all of this we are largely at the mercy of the Russian people.  We can influence them, currently by killing a lot of their sons; however, we can only do so much.

So we get to another face of war...a violent negotiation that is almost always irrational at some level.

[mosuri]

Well, if Putain escalates, I must also escalate in my own little way.

I've been sending a small monthly donation to UA since the spring, and I made a second donation for September now. It's not much, but every little bullet helps...

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, poesel said:

I doubt that we will get back to pre-war prices at all.

So my math is not what it used to be but "forever" is longer than a decade.

The original point was that the costs of this war to the west will exceed a single year of combat.  I threw out a decade, largely based on history, and that included energy re-alignment in Europe.  You countered by declaring that it will be solved by the end of the year....and then promptly supported my original argument, and somehow blamed it on global warming....?

Energy is directly linked to cost.  Germany is a rich nation and could easily access the energy it needs from Australia (apparently):

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1262074/global-lng-export-capacity-by-country/

However, that is not the issue, it is the cost of that energy.  At an increased price, it has a direct impact on German economic growth because crazy as it sounds - we need energy for economic growth.

I personally think your assessment of "forever" is inaccurate.  A combination of technological advances on production/access and storage will hopefully drive prices down, as will market pressure and competition - Germany is more likely to buy LNG from US because it is closer than Australia, and therefore cheaper.  Production increases also have an effect.  In short, the price of energy to Europe will normalize over time and, adjusting for inflation, go back down to something that resembles pre-war conditions.  My point was, and still is, that it will take more than a year for that to happen and that the cost of this war will carry over for some time - which is fine, I think the west is willing to pay that cost...but again, to a point, not limitless.

 

[billbindc]

Want to help the negotiations? Give here: https://www.supportazov.com/en

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

ExtremeLeftFlank more likely.

Oh so very mistaken.

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I recommend reading ISW's first page of the report from Sept 21.  They used their usual solid insight and assessment about the mobilization announcements and of the nuclear threat.  In short, it wasn't anything new either in words (definitely true) or in the context of this specific speech (they make a good case for that).  Putin's speech was undoubtedly scrutinized to the n'th degree before he presented it.  I think ISW is onto something about the context in which the nuclear threat was made.  It was for domestic audience consumption, especially those who have worked themselves into a delusional frenzy that NATO is going to nuke Russia or give Ukraine nukes so it can hit Russia.

As I speculated about earlier, I think it was this process of writing Putin's speech that caused the delay.  Someone of significant power objected to some wording and things had to be negotiated. Putin only spoke after he was sure that power bloc (or blocs!) was happy with the final text.

Steve

Gotta be honest, I am old fashion in a lot of ways, I really prefer my nuclear brinksmanship to be crystal clear for all parties.  I read the transcript from that speech as well:

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/69390

I have no doubt it was for domestic consumption; however, it is what they are consuming that makes me nervous.  The logic chain is pretty simple: IF -Ukraine (or at least great swaths of it) are really Russian territory - they are going through legal show-elections to make it appear legit.  THEN - any attacks on Russian sovereign territory, including the ones we say so, justify escalation in their defence.  Booya, booya - nuclear weapons and hypersonic nonsense.

I still believe that the Russian mechanism that actually controls these weapons is not so deluded as to start smoking its own supply, and that the specter of an actual nuclear exchange is low.  However, we do know that Russia has a "red-line" somewhere - the reticence to provide the UA with weapons that can hit Moscow is wrapped up in this. [Aside: I think this is overly cautious to be honest.  The US is likely so nested in the UA targeting cycle right now that any strategic strikes like that are not going to happen, and if they did there would be political repurcutions.  In short, giving the UA capability to hit the entirety of occupied Ukraine and SLOC nodes within Russia is manageable.]

Further that "red-line" is currently manned by people who thought it was a good idea to try a conventional war in Ukraine.  I think our greatest concern is trying to determine where that "red-line" actually is, or is not.  And finally, remove Putin and his power bloc, and the "red-line" also moves - hopefully not onto the floor.

[LongLeftFlank]

21 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Gotta be honest, I am old fashion in a lot of ways, I really prefer my nuclear brinksmanship to be crystal clear for all parties.

Brinkmanship is a good word.

Kind of like how Putin came into Moscow after a successful career as fixer in the Petersburg government, took a look around and saw this perfectly good (former) Red Army lying around rusting and reckoned, why not get some value out of it?

....so the same thing with the Strategic Rocket Forces.  I mean, come on if you can't play high stakes poker with human civilisation with it, what use is it pouring so many billions into its upkeep?

Very pragmatic, actually.

*****

... Oops, did the sun really just come up in the WEST?

 

Edited September 22, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[chuckdyke]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Scraping the Barrel, ep. XXXIV

They needed the sights because they fought in the shade.

[The_Capt]

11 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

So it is okay to punish an entire people after all. Well, well, well.

Apart from that I remember fierce and indignant discussions about qualifications such as "Japs" or "Orcs" on this site. But it still okay to call the Germans "Huns"?

Double standards, as usual. And no moderator in sight. Fortunately I'm not into complaining about people by reporting them. So childish.

Ok, so let's try and have an actual conversation about all this.  Why not?  It is "forbidden discussions" week on the thread while we wait for the UA to reload.

First, lets put the emotion to one side for a moment - we saw how well that worked last time - and try to arrive at common ground.  I am not going to comment on forum policy or poor BFCElvis' endless and thankless work in trying to keep this place from become another internet cesspool - if you have a problem with forum policy, or felt you have been wronged in some way, take it up with him and BFC.

So what to do about Russia?  Russians everywhere?  They started a land war in Europe and they are supporting it, to some extent, for 6 months while their military is, in part, committing what is pretty much confirmed as systemic war crimes.

So how will justice be served in the prosecution of this war?  How will the offenders be made to pay so that it serves as an example to those that would re-offend?

Legally.  

The whole point of this war, and one of the big reasons why we care so much is that this is not just an unjustified invasion of Ukraine, it is an attack on the entire rules based international order.  In 1949, we all sat down, even Russia within the USSR, and said that this sort of action was illegal.  Its premise and definitely in its prosecution, by Russia, have been illegal within international law and the Law of Armed Conflict.  Russia's position, beyond some very weak tea technical arguments - SMO, has been - "ya, so what are you going to do about it...we are Russia and have nukes?"

That will not stand.  It cannot stand.  It threatens the entire scheme at its heart.  That scheme, btw, pays for our lifestyles and guarantors the stability and security we need to thrive, get richer and fatter, and have the freedom to yell at each other over all sorts of stuff.

So how will we put Russia back in the box?  Well first steps are to ensure it gets the spanking it so much deserves on the battlefield.  The next step, and it is very important, is to prosecute those responsible in Russia for this atrocity, within the frameworks of the law.

"Oh but the law is so "woke", we need to get medieval here to send a real message!"

1.  Shh, grown ups talking.

2.  If we step outside the legal framework, the one we built, we will break it ourselves, which in many ways is worse.

Don't believe me, well we have a convenient historical example - Iraq 2003. 

And before anyone freaks out, let me start by saying that the invasion of Iraq in 2003 is not anywhere near what is happening in Ukraine.  The legal justification for that war was "thin" but it adhered to the rules far closer than what we are seeing today.  It was unsanctioned by UN, the evidence for the whole thing turned out to be incorrect; however, the US made a case for self-defence against a known international offender, one who had not only invaded another country but also threatened "the great Satan" repeatedly.  Further the US prosecuted that war under the LOAC.

However the repurcutions of that action, one the edge of legality in some places are still being felt today.  In Putin's last speech he references "terror/terrorism" 5 times as as a justification for this war.  The lesson here is that if we fracture to system of order, very bad things start to happen.

So we will hold Russia accountable.  We will demand reparations for lifting sanctions.  We will demand the turning over of war criminals for prosecution.  We will employ national security mechanisms to find and arrest anyone who supported Russia's war outside of the laws of whatever country they are in.  And we will do so within the defined limitations of the law.

Anything beyond that is a revenge fantasy that serves no real purpose in discussing this war.  Now are we able to continue on in peace and harmony?

Edited September 22, 2022 by The_Capt