How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Calamine Waffles]

22 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Watched the damage assessment section.  Wow.  A reminder that the Soviets and Russians really excel at design flaws.  I know very little about modern naval designs, but even I was able to see the problems with their engine layout.  Then to find out that they had centralized damage control systems RIGHT NEXT TO IT!  Wow.

Steve

This is something that comes up a lot in Soviet/Russian weapons design and it basically boils down to the fact that their systems are designed to meet challenging specifications on a budget/technology base that's much smaller than the US has, so what ends up happening is that they will prioritise "hard" factors that can be easily quantified (like number of missiles etc.) and compromise on the "soft" factors (like how compartmentalized your design is and its ability to survive damage).

A good example of this is Soviet jet engines. Soviet engine technology and metallurgy was backward compared to the West, but they still needed to put out comparable amounts of power to Western engines in order to maintain performance (basic physics) in a useful airframe, so they compromised by having engines with very short lifespans/TBOs compared to Western counterparts.

I'm actually writing a paper on this comparing the Russian T-72B3 obr. 2016 and Ukrainian T-64BV zr. 2017 showing how Ukraine's more Westernised approach to modernising its tank fleet has different priorities to that of the Russians.

Edited August 22, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Hapless]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Article in The Moscow Times that has Western analysts thinking there won't be a large Ukrainian offensive this month or even next.

Gonna climb up on a hill, dig in and say we've been watching the offensive for the last few weeks or so.

It's just getting hard to draw a line between traditional pre-offensive shaping operations and the potential for the long-range precision deep battle to be decisive in and of itself.

[Kinophile]

@Calamine Waffles would love to read that when done! 

[Beleg85]

If this is true, then FSB must have been really in a haste to find somebody...https://twitter.com/petite_michelle/status/1561774238683512833

 

Oh, and I just found video of Sec. Blinken and Dugin discussing at one table. Well well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-vPfoxzs76U

Edited August 22, 2022 by Beleg85

[The_Capt]

51 minutes ago, Hapless said:

Gonna climb up on a hill, dig in and say we've been watching the offensive for the last few weeks or so.

It's just getting hard to draw a line between traditional pre-offensive shaping operations and the potential for the long-range precision deep battle to be decisive in and of itself.

Oh man I am going to steal that and then sue Hapless for plagiarism later…

This is building on deep-strike as the new form of manoeuvre, and negative decision campaigning.

[Offshoot]

6 hours ago, photon said:

1. If your strategy is negative-decision focused, how do you maintain home-front morale without decisive battles? Abstract friction is great if you understand it. How do you sell that to people?

Memes - in this case, the elevation of cumulative small victories (or enemy's failures) into something more:

St Javelin
Himars o'clock
What airdefense doing?
etc.

[MSBoxer]

From a Facebook post - for what it is worth

 

Military aircraft

 

And this is how they did it!

The most exciting news these few days, involves the question of how the Ukrainians managed to employ American supplied AGM-88 High-speed Anti Radiation Missile (HARM) against Russian radar equipment when they don't have any Western aircraft capable of using the Air-Launched HARM which requires special avionics to be integrated into the aircraft using it.
 

It has now been revealed that the Ukrainian Air Force managed to integrate the AGM-88 HARM onto their Mikoyan-Gurevich Mig-29 Fulcrum's with the help of technicians from Raytheon. Raytheon is the American company that manufactures the AGM-88 HARM.
 

But, the deeper question of HOW the American technicians managed to put it off? To integrate Western weaponry into a 1980's vintage Soviet era design is no walk in the park. The answer? The Americans had prior experience with the Mig-29 Fulcrum and deep technical knowledge of the aircraft that helped them to develop a way to integrate the AGM-88 HARM onto it within a short time and with apparently little effort.

Back in 1997, the Americans acquired 21 units of Mig-29 Fulcrum-A, the newer Fulcrum-C and a single twin-seater Fulcrum-B conversion trainer, seen here being loaded into a USAF Boeing C-17 Globemaster III, from Moldova.

The acquired aircraft were literally studied to the last bolt by the USAF's National Air and Space Intelligence Centre (NASIC) formerly and perhaps better known as the Foreign Technology Division (FTD).

These early model Mig-29 Fulcrum-A and Fulcrum-C are similar, if not identical, to the models that the Ukrainian Air Force is flying today. Hence, any information that the Americans gained from the Moldovian units 25 years ago is still relevant and useful. It is this technical knowledge gained from the exploitation of enemy equipment that gives the Americans their edge.

[photon]

37 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Memes - in this case, the elevation of cumulative small victories (or enemy's failures) into something more:

St Javelin
Himars o'clock
What airdefense doing?
etc.

For great Justice take off every HiMARS indeed.

It's interesting how effectively Ukrainian communication has minimized showing human casualties and focused on material and memes. There's a fine line there that they've done a very impressive job walking.

Are there categorically similar memes being produced by the Russians for internal consumption?

[sburke]

Interesting if true - this bit came from a daily mail article.  No idea if Felshtinsky is very reliable, but he did coauthor something with Litvinenko.

Quote

Fears grow that daughter of 'Putin's Rasputin' killed by Russian bomb
Historian Yuri Felshtinsky (pictured), author of Blowing Up Ukraine, said: 'The blowing up of the car of the famous Russian fascist and ideologist of the Putin regime, Alexander Dugin, was organized, it seems, by the Russian security services.' He added: 'On the latest Russian reports, the bomb was attached to Dugin's car inside his guarded compound. Ukraine focuses on military targets, unlike Russia, and there is no discernible gain in attacking one of Putin's media puppets or allocating scarce operatives inside the Russian Federation to such a goal that is meaningless to the liberation of Ukraine. The Kremlin will, however, likely exploit it to make it seem as if Ukraine is stooping to its own tactics of bombing harmless civilians in Ukraine.'

 

[Huba]

I saw that reported a few times today. Interesting if true:

 

[danfrodo]

44 minutes ago, Huba said:

I saw that reported a few times today. Interesting if true:

 

Any idea on quantity, Huba?  I hope it's lots.

[chris talpas]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

For you fans of early viral videos, I bring you this...

 

Steve, you really need to give us a way to give you likes.

Thanks for bringing a smile to my face.  Thanks as well for all the commentary and analysis.  This has been a go to thread for intelligent discourse on the course of this war from a military and larger perspective.

This thread should be preserved for posterity.

I could see it being a primary source for future scholars detailing how the conflict was analyzed along with predictors of outcomes within the open source community.  It would interesting to compare this group with the professional analysts.

I don’t know if all of this (including links twitter, News sites, etc) can be backed up?
The eventually thousands of pages that is this thread, could provide a unique window into the insights that were developed over the course of the conflict.

I think it can also provide a contextual record of how successfully Ukraine has managed the information war.  They have been masterful on so many levels: diplomatic, social media, news media, to name some.  Example: Releasing the Snake Island commemorative stamp featuring the finger to the Moskva.  Later that day sinking that ship.
 While the sinking was probably almost too good to be true, I am glad good fortune was with Ukraine that day.

[Grigb]

5 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

I'm actually writing a paper on this comparing the Russian T-72B3 obr. 2016 and Ukrainian T-64BV zr. 2017 showing how Ukraine's more Westernised approach to modernising its tank fleet has different priorities to that of the Russians.

Have you seen videos from UKR tanker Haiduk and me posted some time ago? 

[Calamine Waffles]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

Have you seen videos from UKR tanker Haiduk and me posted some time ago? 

Which one? This interview?
 

I'd appreciate any others you can send me.

[Grigb]

Just now, Calamine Waffles said:

Which one? This interview?
 

I'd appreciate any others you can send me.

No, this channel - (122) Shawshank Redemption - YouTube

The guy is using T-64 2017 but he also looks at captured T-72B3 (and some other tanks). I think following video will be of interest:

• Unprofessional review of the T-72B3)
• T-72B obr 84
• T-72B3 AZ/MZ, and the sores are the same
• 72B3, a trifle, but unpleasant
• A little bit about ergonomics on the spot BUT in the T-64BV *
• T-72B3, turret transfer [rotating] speed (24 degrees)
• T-72(B,B3) ,AZ [autoloader] flap material

Tell me if you need help translating them.

[Chibot Mk IX]

18 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

It depends with modern optics tanks make better spotters than infantry in modern warfare. Thermals spots snipers the moment they fire. Present battle in Ukraine it looks like the Russians are a generation behind western Intel Operations. 

Yes, but in US army vs US army CM quick battle, it is still better to keep Abrams behind. Send out an infantry screen forward. In the “couple of Javelin CLUs (unsuppressed) vs Abrams CITV” spotting competition, the Javelin team is the winner most of the time.
 

[Calamine Waffles]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

No, this channel - (122) Shawshank Redemption - YouTube

The guy is using T-64 2017 but he also looks at captured T-72B3 (and some other tanks). I think following video will be of interest:

• Unprofessional review of the T-72B3)
• T-72B obr 84
• T-72B3 AZ/MZ, and the sores are the same
• 72B3, a trifle, but unpleasant
• A little bit about ergonomics on the spot BUT in the T-64BV *
• T-72B3, turret transfer [rotating] speed (24 degrees)
• T-72(B,B3) ,AZ [autoloader] flap material

Tell me if you need help translating them.

Oh that will be most helpful! Yes, I'd appreciate any help you can give translating them (I don't understand spoken Ukrainian/Russian, only a little bit, mostly rely on translation of text)

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, photon said:

Are there categorically similar memes being produced by the Russians for internal consumption?

Nope. RU is generally bad at memes, so their focus is to drown audience in constantly repeated slogans like:

• We suffered no losses! Nobody of ours was killed! No 200s this time!
• UKR suffered heavy losses! We killed hundreds of them! We killed so much of them that the rest run away!
• We are advancing! Glorious advance again! Yes, there is progress!

 However, they do have a couple of accidental memes like old woman with USSR flag:

 

[chuckdyke]

3 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

the Javelin team is the winner most of the time.

A weapon which is at its best at 1 to 2 km. The Javelin team is invisible, the Abrams is not. I don't know which thermal sight is better. I assume it is equal. 

[akd]

11 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

Yes, but in US army vs US army CM quick battle, it is still better to keep Abrams behind. Send out an infantry screen forward. In the “couple of Javelin CLUs (unsuppressed) vs Abrams CITV” spotting competition, the Javelin team is the winner most of the time.
 

Well, CM allows for quite a bit of abuse of the CLU thermals.

[Chibot Mk IX]

17 hours ago, Maquisard manqué said:

That’s very true and speaks to the challenge of a game - which needs to have balance and challenge. In RL, a close run thing would be something to avoid! You’d stack the deck in your favour in any way possible and ruthlessly exploit your advantage.

Many other assets on the modern battlefield can deprive the opponent’s ability to mass the number. Tactical nukes, chemical agents, MLRS, long range artillery, air strike etc. It is a stalemate until side A can neutralize the side B’s ability to denial side A’s concentration of troops. But like discussed before, this is like a low efficiency, low return investment. Maybe as pervious discussion pointed out, instead of a massed troops conducting a breakthrough + maneuver,  we should look into a projection of firepower with enough eyes and ears support on the ground

 

17 hours ago, Grigb said:

Interesting thing is that indirectly I see shift in RU military doctrine from massed armor shock assault toward current overwhelming arty grinding. I see that RU military thought now is - enemy anti-tank weapons are too strong, but we can respond with overwhelming arty fire, see our glorious sucess at previous and current offensive! 

That began back in Syria, right?

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/russias-new-tank-carousel-tactics-have-been-around-ages-185151

Tank carousel, it feels like the pike and shots age revives.

And...

 

13 hours ago, Kinophile said:

To clarify,  not so much numbers, as quality of infantry. 

Highly accurate  ATGMs and UAVs are dangerous to a weakly motivated and equipped infantry-armor force. But if that force has equivalent quality & equipped  infantry then would they not start to cancel/match each other,  allowing armor to maneuver. 

The classic example from this war is how to road-bound and flank vulnerable  the RUS invasion columns were.  Run the attack on Kyiv as a NATO force, even assuming contested air space, and let's see how NATO infantry deals with the flank and  GLOCs vulnerabilities.  Pretty sure you don't lose as many tanks and get way further way faster.  

RUS infantry is sh*t explains a lot of RUS problems. 

 I guess I don't have time to finish the rest of pages, so I would like to stop here and add some of my crazy thoughts 

My feeling is, this tank, infantry, ATGM evolution is very similar to the military evolution from late medieval to late renaissance age

ATGM = spearmen --> pike phalanx

other dismounted Infantry = swordsmen --> coseletes

Artillery = longbowmen/crossbowmen --> arquebusiers -->  musketeers and light field artillery

Tank = knights --> Gendarme --> heavy Cuirassier 

IFV =  dragoon

Air force = Dragon? 

in the early Cold war era , the attacking side can mass his archer (Artillery), rain arrow and bolts on the head of poor infantry formation, thin their ranks and break some holes, then he gathers all his heavy cavalry (Tanks) to charge into the infantry formation, cut down any spearman (ATGM) who dare to stand his ground. It will be a glorious victory unless the heavy cavalry charge stopped by the other side's cavalry counter offensive or by the fire breathing dragon.

Now, with technology development, spearmen become pike phalanx formation. the combined arms of infantry, ATGMs and artillery works as a Spanish Tercio. Heavy cavalry has a huge trouble in face of the Tercio formation.  So the attacking side has to bring up enough musketeers (Artillery) to, not only to soften, but directly break the Tercio formation. Then cavalry can be committed into battle and cut down the routed enemy. In the meantime the attacking musketeers need their counter-cavalry protection, so attacking side needs to bring enough pikemen, swordsmen forward, building his Tercio. As you have mentioned infantry could cancel each other, allow armor to maneuver. However with pikemen's strong counter-cavalry ability, a second line pikemen formation could hold the cavalry at bay, give them little room to maneuver. Cavalry probably have to stop and wait for Tercio to catch up.  So overall the heavy cavalry is likely to change their task accordingly, they will slowly give up the shock role, focus on harass the enemy (with pistol & carousel) and take up the role to chasing the routed enemy.  The glorious day for heavy cavalry has passed, they have to wait for the next Gustav start a new military revolution and bring shock cavalry back online.

Of course during the long waiting time, a dragon may dive down, turn everything on ground char and char alike. 
 

[Grigb]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

Interesting if true - this bit came from a daily mail article.  No idea if Felshtinsky is very reliable, but he did coauthor something with Litvinenko.

 

He was reliable at that time with Litvinenko. But recently i think he got often carried away and became somewhat unreliable. For example, according to all reports I read the bomb was planted on parking lot at festival "Tradition". It is a simple unguarded parking lot with no working cameras. 

BTW, according to latest Ru claims the target was daughter not Dugin:

Quote

According to a TASS source in law enforcement agencies, the killers of the Russian publicist Daria Dugina were only interested in her. At the same time, the activities of her father, political scientist and philosopher Alexander Dugin, were not considered by the special services of Ukraine.

As the interlocutor of the publication clarified, "those who were preparing the murder of Daria Dugina were interested in the daily routine and habits of only the journalist herself."

According to a law enforcement official, "by activating an explosive device, those who remotely detonated the car knew for sure that Dugina was driving alone." He stressed that her father was not the target.

 

[chuckdyke]

Irrelevance. Example Maginot Line. It became irrelevant by the German plan Fall Gelb (Case Yellow) maneuvering is sometimes hard in a CM Scenario. Game Scenarios Russian IFV's can make bridges irrelevant a Stryker or Bradley unit depends on them. If I would equip forces before I select a Bradley I would look long and hard at a BMP3 depending on the terrain. 

Edited August 23, 2022 by chuckdyke

[chuckdyke]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

He stressed that her father was not the target.

If you target the father, you could do it by taking out his daughter. Now it turns his life into misery if he were the victim, it would be all over. A psychological assassination. 

[Grigb]

14 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

That began back in Syria, right?

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/russias-new-tank-carousel-tactics-have-been-around-ages-185151

Actually, carousel is even from Chechnia. But until this August it was seen as an exception, small wars aberration, and in case of conventional conflict with NATO type forces it was still about shock armor assault. However, lately, indirectly I sense the mood is changing and RU military is trying to adapt to the painful reality.  

 

14 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said:

Now, with technology development, spearmen become pike phalanx formation. the combined arms of infantry, ATGMs and artillery works as a Spanish Tercio. Heavy cavalry has a huge trouble in face of the Tercio formation.  So the attacking side has to bring up enough musketeers (Artillery) to, not only to soften, but directly break the Tercio formation. Then cavalry can be committed into battle and cut down the routed enemy. In the meantime the attacking musketeers need their counter-cavalry protection, so attacking side needs to bring enough pikemen, swordsmen forward, building his Tercio. As you have mentioned infantry could cancel each other, allow armor to maneuver. However with pikemen's strong counter-cavalry ability, a second line pikemen formation could hold the cavalry at bay, give them little room to maneuver. Cavalry probably have to stop and wait for Tercio to catch up.  So overall the heavy cavalry is likely to change their task accordingly, they will slowly give up the shock role, focus on harass the enemy (with pistol & carousel) and take up the role to chasing the routed enemy.  The glorious day for heavy cavalry has passed, they have to wait for the next Gustav start a new military revolution and bring shock cavalry back online.

Of course during the long waiting time, a dragon may dive down, turn everything on ground char and char alike. 
 

Yes, looks similar - assault groups operating forward can be easily crashed by determined armor push but network of ATGMs post will attrit and slow down the push even if they die. Then arty or air finish it. Then reserve assault groups replace crashed ones, and it is back to usual advance.

Just to visualize this is how Wagnerites advanced right now to Bakhmut (i am bit too idealistic with number of drones).

The only thing I do not believe ATGM posts move like infantry. I believe reserve leapfrog each other.