How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Huba]

Beautiful if you don't know what is it...

Another logistic corridor for UA:

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, Cederic said:

Hermit tanks from Howondaland? Look away for just a moment and a cluster of garden sheds appears, long snouts peeking out?

I'm not mocking, if I was a Russian tanker I would absolutely looking for lightweight profile changing misdirection that'd confuse the NLAW and Javelin.

go ahead and mock me sir!  I'll be laughing all the way to the bank when that procurement contract comes in!  

[panzermartin]

9 minutes ago, Huba said:

Beautiful if you don't know what is it...

Not sure how effective these are. Do they raise the temperature to the point you need to get out of the area affected or just set fires? Because their impact doesn't seem significant in the videos, especialy in urban areas like this. Probably much more effective against dug in infantry in the countryside. Impressive sight nonetheless. 

[The_Capt]

39 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Because it is not a couple of guys with launcher and 4 missiles. It is around several guys with dozens of missiles and car. And the thing is commercial drones with thermals can see a couple of guys in any tree line from around 500 meters and closer. Riflemen can deal it that because they can quickly get down and crawl away. RU ATGM team cannot do the same especially if launcher is set up. As result RU tactics is to set them up at elevated positions at least 1 km back from front line.

Ah now I get your point.  Of course isn’t this a little weird (and ironic) for the country that invented the “suitcase missile”?  The UA on the other hand does not have the same problem as the Javelin team can scuttle like a rifleman.

If two guys in a tree line are being spotted at 500m then there is also a training issue at play, even with TI.  Unless you are including the vehicle.  Once again the Russian addiction to steel betrays them…very sad.  Oh wait, we are addicted to steel as well…

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, poesel said:

I have the feeling that reality came closer to CM. The all seeing eye (in CM) created a lot of unrealistic tactics. But now with the ever present drones this has become the new reality. So the tactics in real life have become more similar to the ones we already had in CM.

And Borg spotting is only going to get more extreme and more asymmetric.  I was seeing job ads more than a decade ago to develop hardware/software for AR systems that were essentially Borg wearables.  So not only do you get the space and drone based ISR that has been used so effectively, but it's just mixed into your goggles and follows your field of regard.  Look at that hill over there and the display accurately shows the location of the guy behind it who was spotted by a drone or another team member 3 km away, enabling you to aim the precision guided grenade launcher into his coffee cup without you ever spotting him directly.  And it's going to be a very, very asymmetric capability.  

It's going to be all about who's got precision sensors and bandwidth and how fast they can move.  The problem everybody seems to be having in Ukraine is moving long distances quickly, but a few freight containers full of those robodogs from Alibaba might fix that if the people riding them are all kitted up with integrated sensors.

[Huba]

Speaking of spotting and future UA offensive (CGI obviously, but impressive nonetheless):

 

[Grigb]

Short update on RU Nats discussions:

1. Some of them start talking about that RU anti-war opposition are terrorists because they killed an innocent woman. While Ponomarev explicitly linked White-Blue-White anti-war flag to the assassination of Dugina and as such linked anti-war people to terrorism.  So, the whole story could be an excuse to brutally crush anti-war opposition screaming that they are terrorists. You, suka, do not want to go to war?! You are terrorist blyat!!! 
2. Fo something completely different - RU Nats discussing after Prigojin offered RU oligarchs to finally join him at war they started urgently selling Rublevka properties (the most famous, the most expensive and cool lands in RU). 

[Battlefront.com]

47 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Possible; Shoigu and company having enough of being called "plywood marshall" is believable; he wanted the head of somebody from these circles. But then, why not choosing Girkin, murz, or some old Donbas veterans?

Russia's history with such messages is to not shoot the messenger, but to shoot the messenger's daughter.  So to speak.

If they whacked Girkin, Murz, or some other RU Nat personality there would be an uproar amongst that sector.  Girkin, in particular, has a lot of friends in high places.  Obviously, or he'd have been arrested long ago.

The best way to get someone to shut up is to have them decide it is in their best interests to do that.

Now, if Girkin et all continue to blather on like Dugin didn't happen then either the message didn't work or the message wasn't intended for them.  Unless the RU Nats start accusing the GRU of trying to silence them I don't think we'll be able to tell the difference.  However, if the tone out of the RU Nats starts to get less aggressive or less frequent then we will have a pretty solid answer.

47 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

GRU trying to undermine FSB connections within nationalists movements is also possible. However, I think we can safely exclude "non-political mafia scores"- at this level no sane mafioso/oligarch would try to cross the lines with Kremlin killing persons Putin may find useful or under his protection. You know, "you killed my vassal, you are done" kind of things.

Another reason that Dugin was selected is that I don't think anybody will really miss him and I don't think he had the sort of high level protection that matters.

47 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, maybe let's try to close this topic unless new evidences come out. I don't think last couple of pages was lost, though; this can be very significant event in retrospection, perhaps (under proper circustances) beginning of Putin Purges. Or opposite- sign of rotting of Russian state apparatus we waited so long. Or nothing from above.

Yup.  Something big just happened, we just don't know what it is

Steve

[Letter from Prague]

So the 1968 donations for Ukraine embassy in Czech reached over 1 million dollars over the weekend, according to their Twitter.

[Battlefront.com]

Article in The Moscow Times that has Western analysts thinking there won't be a large Ukrainian offensive this month or even next.  Some even think it was just a ruse to get Russia to divert resources away from Donbas.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/08/18/ukrainian-southern-counteroffensive-unlikely-as-russia-bolsters-forces-a78604

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, Grigb said:

• Some of them start talking about that RU anti-war opposition are terrorists because they killed an innocent woman. While Ponomarev explicitly linked White-Blue-White anti-war flag to the assassination of Dugina and as such linked anti-war people to terrorism.  So, the whole story could be an excuse to brutally crush anti-war opposition screaming that they are terrorists. You, suka, do not want to go to war?! You are terrorist blyat!!! 

 

Yeah... but this would mean that the anti-war movement is a significant, or at least heading towards that, threat to the Russian state.  I don't think we've seen any evidence of that, though of course it is difficult to gauge how strong it is or isn't thanks to social controls.

14 minutes ago, Grigb said:

 

• Fo something completely different - RU Nats discussing after Prigojin offered RU oligarchs to finally join him at war they started urgently selling Rublevka properties (the most famous, the most expensive and cool lands in RU). 

Selling properties to raise money to fund war efforts?

Steve

[Calamine Waffles]

Probably one of the best overviews of the sinking of the Moskva and the factors that probably played a role:
 

Basically, the ship was unfit for combat.

[Kinophile]

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1561775821257379840?t=mVnK6kc2i8DnJ53-xaIb0A&s=09

[Haiduk]

First video of TB2 ground target strike since the spring. Reportedly this is Bayraktar, crowdfunded by Lithuania. 

The ordnance hit a box with ammunitions or powder charges (oe mayby empty box). Interesting, that the man near the box survived the explosion and could move away. Probably on adrenaline, but...

 

Edited August 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

24 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Now, if Girkin et all continue to blather on like Dugin didn't happen then either the message didn't work or the message wasn't intended for them.  Unless the RU Nats start accusing the GRU of trying to silence them I don't think we'll be able to tell the difference.  However, if the tone out of the RU Nats starts to get less aggressive or less frequent then we will have a pretty solid answer.

True; it may even be connected to famous "moustacheless Girkin" incident from last days as final proof Nats are going rogue.

24 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another reason that Dugin was selected is that I don't think anybody will really miss him and I don't think he had the sort of high level protection that matters.

Here I disagree. K. Malofieiev is influential person and he would certainly revenge one of his protegee if he would be killed by some random gangsters- Dugin is one of persons in the board of Carograd TV. Unless target was marked by Putin himself, to humiliate Malofieiev for, for example, generally weak response of Western Far Right to the war in Ukraine (contacts with "New Conservatists" in the west was within his are of competence).

Edited August 22, 2022 by Beleg85

[Cederic]

Imagine the conversation.

"That's not low flying! You're above the tree line."

"Yes, I had to gain altitude or my wing would've hit the trucks as I banked for the turn."

 

I don't _think_ it's video game footage, that looks scarily real.

[FancyCat]

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Article in The Moscow Times that has Western analysts thinking there won't be a large Ukrainian offensive this month or even next.  Some even think it was just a ruse to get Russia to divert resources away from Donbas.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/08/18/ukrainian-southern-counteroffensive-unlikely-as-russia-bolsters-forces-a78604

Steve

On one hand, retaking Kherson is important for bolstering UKR morale. 

On the other hand, bombing Crimea every few days or so, sounds pretty morale boosting no? Incidentally, there are no rail lines from the Donbas to Crimea right? Not only has Russia stuffed thousands on the wrong side of the river, but aren't there multiple chokepoints in Crimea and Southern Ukraine for Ukraine to pressure and disrupt? 

[Kinophile]

 

 

[sburke]

35 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Probably one of the best overviews of the sinking of the Moskva and the factors that probably played a role:
 

Basically, the ship was unfit for combat.

well that would just as well apply to the entire Russian military.  

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Here I disagree. K. Malofieiev is influential person and he would certainly revenge one of his protegee if he would be killed by some random gangsters- Dugin is one of persons in the board of Carograd TV. Unless target was marked by Putin himself, to humiliate Malofieiev for, for example, generally weak response of Western Far Right to the war in Ukraine (contacts with "New Conservatists" in the west was within his are of competence).

Yup, I noted this in one of my previous posts.

The problem with messaging using bodies is the body has to be of some value or the message isn't going to be taken seriously.  So, in that sense, anybody targeted for such an attack would be a "someone" or a family member of a "someone".  In this case it was both wrapped up in one.

This gets to whether the father or the daughter was the intended target.  Conflicting information.  But even if they targeted Aleksander Dugin, but got Darya Dugin instead, it's still a solid message either way.  Maybe even better.

As I said, I think this was all related to DLPR in some way.  Malofieiev is their patron and he is the patron of people like Dugin, Girkin, and pretty much anybody that is a member of the Novorossiya cult.  If you want to influence the whole group, you need to influence Malofieiev.

Steve

[sburke]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, I noted this in one of my previous posts.

The problem with messaging using bodies is the body has to be of some value or the message isn't going to be taken seriously.  So, in that sense, anybody targeted for such an attack would be a "someone" or a family member of a "someone".  In this case it was both wrapped up in one.

This gets to whether the father or the daughter was the intended target.  Conflicting information.  But even if they targeted Aleksander Dugin, but got Darya Dugin instead, it's still a solid message either way.  Maybe even better.

Steve

maybe both if it is true he switched vehicles at the last moment.  When they were offing oligarchs they were doing the whole family.

Edited August 22, 2022 by sburke

[Artkin]

22 minutes ago, Cederic said:

Imagine the conversation.

"That's not low flying! You're above the tree line."

"Yes, I had to gain altitude or my wing would've hit the trucks as I banked for the turn."

 

I don't _think_ it's video game footage, that looks scarily real.

I think we will start seeing all sorts of new tactics being applied to the modern urbanized battlefield. Without a doubt the couple meters shaved off (At the least) will be helpful and practical on the battlefield. 

[Battlefront.com]

46 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Probably one of the best overviews of the sinking of the Moskva and the factors that probably played a role:
 

Basically, the ship was unfit for combat.

Watched the damage assessment section.  Wow.  A reminder that the Soviets and Russians really excel at design flaws.  I know very little about modern naval designs, but even I was able to see the problems with their engine layout.  Then to find out that they had centralized damage control systems RIGHT NEXT TO IT!  Wow.

Steve

[Beleg85]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, I noted this in one of my previous posts.

The problem with messaging using bodies is the body has to be of some value or the message isn't going to be taken seriously.  So, in that sense, anybody targeted for such an attack would be a "someone" or a family member of a "someone".  In this case it was both wrapped up in one.

Ok, I still have a several hours lag- before I have time to read/write posts, new come again and again. Now reading about ATGMs and tanks in urban envirenment.

I still think anybody "civil" (non-political) would be crazy to target person under one of most influential Kremlin oligarchs. So perhaps one of Malofieiev enemies among oligarchs? Unfortunatelly one needs very specialists knowledge who like whom at Kremlin currently, so difficult to tell.

15 minutes ago, sburke said:

maybe both if it is true he switched vehicles at the last moment.  When they were offing oligarchs they were doing the whole family.

Possible, especially that explosion seem to be quite powerful- Daria's body in the video is lying like 10-15 m from car (it could be drag away, though).

[Holien]

1 hour ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Probably one of the best overviews of the sinking of the Moskva and the factors that probably played a role:
 

Basically, the ship was unfit for combat.

I attended that session and was waiting for the slide set to be released. Thanks for highlighting it.