How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[paxromana]

28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's to wishing everybody a Merry Christmas!  Even though most Ukrainians are on a different calendar than many of us, that shouldn't matter because good wishes are good wishes

Steve

They've just changed to the Gregorian Calendar for Christmas, so for most Ukrainians it IS the same as for us.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/12/24/ukraine-russia-zaporizhzhia-bakhmut-avdiivka-sfrankentanks/?li_source=LI&li_medium=for_you

Ukraine war sparks Scrapheap Challenge as engineers create 'Frankentanks'  Both sides are replenishing lost vehicles with Frankentanks

 

Edit: Some interesting bits here.

Edited December 24, 2023 by dan/california

[TheVulture]

58 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Edit: Some interesting bits here.

And to translate for the Americans, Scrapheap Challenge is the UK version that's pretty much identical to the US Junkyard Wars.

[Probus]

Merry Christmas everyone!  Thanks for such a civil discussion.

[fireship4]

Merry Christmas.

[Erwin]

Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year to all!

[fry30]

Merry Christmas gents 

[Zeleban]

 

Meanwhile, while the Western world is celebrating Christmas, the Russians have begun mercilessly destroying the F-16s delivered to Ukraine, which in fact have not yet been delivered. All this is very reminiscent of the situation with the Bradley infantry fighting vehicle.

[Zeleban]

 

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

 

Keep them burning, Gagauz, and stay safe.

[Lethaface]

On 12/20/2023 at 9:18 PM, Battlefront.com said:

 Thinking about traditional airborne ops in the context of our jetpack discussion, should we really be so surprised that ground based maneuver warfare has suffered so horribly at the hands of the combination of detection and PGMs?  Air and airborne force projection has been under strain from this combo for decades, to the point where helicopters are largely held back from the frontlines and airborne ground forces are largely restricted to SpecOps and rear logistics.

Steve

Not really if one extrapolates/values experience from modern CM games.

Especially h2h battles between forces with thermal optics, modern ATGMs and accurate, fast falling artillery with PGM. 

I mean nobody plays games with dense and deep minefields for fun, partly because there's no breaching modeled. But even with some pre-cleared lanes through minefields an attacking force will suffer heavy casualties trying to move through the lanes. And that's with limited modeling of fortifications. Thermal blocking smoke is the only way not to get spotted/targeted and shot up on the advance, if there's no blocking terrain allowing to move up.

My usual strategy is to try and find+shoot up all enemy heavy weapons before committing serious forces, with smoke covering the eventual movement of any assault forces moving through open terrain. 

That and blazing away from all barrels obviously.

Anyway, my view would be no we shouldn't be surprised. Minefields and drone directed artillery alone seem scary enough, let alone combined with atgm/air, attack drones and mlrs laying mines ad-hoc.

[Splinty]

Merry Christmas all! Slava Ukraine!

[Ales Dvorak]

18 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Hmmm... An information has apperaed UKR troops of 48th separate assault battalion seized the lighthouse on Tendra Spit. No any other confirmations yet. 

All I see is Ukrainian flag on black brick wall. I don't see any lighthouse.

Edited December 25, 2023 by Ales Dvorak

[Yet]

soooo. 

Wrapping up the last 50 pages: about anti-mine brainstorm -no bad ideas- except that all ideas are bad

Breaking the minefield doesnt solve the main problem. The first one that denies ISR (lower airspace) to the opponent can start to think breaching and offense.  And without enemy drones in the sky all mine-breaching ideas are good again.

Back to improved jammers, swarms, and anti-drone. 

and... strength too all the chaps at the front & Merry christmas

[Zeleban]

 

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Lethaface said:

Not really if one extrapolates/values experience from modern CM games.

Especially h2h battles between forces with thermal optics, modern ATGMs and accurate, fast falling artillery with PGM. 

I mean nobody plays games with dense and deep minefields for fun, partly because there's no breaching modeled. But even with some pre-cleared lanes through minefields an attacking force will suffer heavy casualties trying to move through the lanes. And that's with limited modeling of fortifications. Thermal blocking smoke is the only way not to get spotted/targeted and shot up on the advance, if there's no blocking terrain allowing to move up.

My usual strategy is to try and find+shoot up all enemy heavy weapons before committing serious forces, with smoke covering the eventual movement of any assault forces moving through open terrain. 

That and blazing away from all barrels obviously.

Anyway, my view would be no we shouldn't be surprised. Minefields and drone directed artillery alone seem scary enough, let alone combined with atgm/air, attack drones and mlrs laying mines ad-hoc.

It is interesting that CM modern titles were actually pretty conservative in modelling near-future warfare.  I can recall playing CMBS and seeing a lot of these sorts of phenomenon but if one could establish a level of superiority manoeuvre was still possible.  Next-Gen ATGMs alone would be game changers but add in UAS, ISR and other PGM and one can quickly see where this goes.

Of course if BFC had modeled modern warfare correctly the hue and cry from the community would have been epic.  Well the next title should be interesting.  Or we could all just go back to our comfort zones…like CMCW!

[poesel]

They found Nawalny. Looks like he was looking for Santa north of the polar circle.

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/alexej-nawalny-in-strafkolonie-in-der-polarregion-verlegt-a-982d1734-43c5-4d7a-9a25-055ab997b5a8

 

[Lethaface]

On 12/23/2023 at 6:04 PM, poesel said:

So the winch assembly is about 50kg that you need to bring to the other side of the minefield and deploy it there. By deploy, I mean you need it to fix it to the ground to withstand at least 3t of pulling force (or 30kN for those who care).
I frankly have no idea how to pull that off apart from sending a human to do it. Which is a showstopper here.

 

The winch doesn't necessarily need to be on the other side, although you'd need a 'lussed' (English? :D) line with something anchoring it on the other side. Connect the sectors to one end and pull the other end. 

[Zeleban]

 

an interesting article about the methods of the Russian attack on Europe

[Zeleban]

If you read his lips, he says: “I don’t want to fight”

[Lethaface]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

It is interesting that CM modern titles were actually pretty conservative in modelling near-future warfare.  I can recall playing CMBS and seeing a lot of these sorts of phenomenon but if one could establish a level of superiority manoeuvre was still possible.  Next-Gen ATGMs alone would be game changers but add in UAS, ISR and other PGM and one can quickly see where this goes.

Of course if BFC had modeled modern warfare correctly the hue and cry from the community would have been epic.  Well the next title should be interesting.  Or we could all just go back to our comfort zones…like CMCW!

Yeah especially with the M1A2SEPv3 + trophy and it's lightning target acquisition on probably too small maps for optimal ATGM engagement ranges, (and Bradley / Java / faster arty) getting heavy forces gaining superiority against RA is well possible. 

Or with the RA against Ukr in CMBS. 

But some sneakily employed ATGM groups could be very deadly against anything without APS.

Any move through open sight lines would be hit hard from as long range as available. And artillery incoming fast onto dismounted infantry.

On the more 'balanced for H2H scenario's' I felt trying to maneuvre before dealing with ATGM and AFVs was asking for heavy casualties against an experienced Oppo. The type of casualties only fine for when playing a game or if your RL Russia

I wonder what the upcoming change to artillery lethality will do. Let alone combined with a wider proliferation/ modeling of drones. 

And certainly looking forward to the next game, although CMCW  certainly keeps it's spot for the now more 'classical' modern warfare. Besides It would be great for modeling the old fashioned breaching ops!

[Vet 0369]

19 hours ago, dan/california said:

I think you are underestimating three factors that are contributing the Russians commercial aircraft maintenance issues. The first is the extraordinarily tight grip that Airbus and Boeing keep on the parts and maintenance business/process. They do this both because they get the blame when a plane has a problem, and because it makes them a great deal of money. This is facilitated by the highly regulated nature of the business among other things.

The second issue is that Russia did not launch a full scale program ten years ago to ready to get around the first problem. There are a lot of things they COULD have have done with several years of lead time, but the plan to actually invade was very held to an extraordinarily small group, and even that nasty little cabal in the Kremlin did not have a clue that they were looking at a multi year major war, with massive sanctions and so on. Nobody even tried to prepare for this in advance.

The third problem, that massively exacerbates the second one, is that the same limited pool of people and resources that might be able to do something about the problem are also being ordered to make an absolute maximum 24/7 effort to increase the production of everything from small arms ammo to Su-34s and Iskanders. I don't think the Russian airlines are at the front of that line. I am not even sure they are IN that line.

When you add up  the three factors, and the general Russian disregard for anything resembling safety, my advice is take the train.

I would actually suggest walking!

[sburke]

Merry Christmas or Happy Festivus might be more appropriate!  Seems we almost had some additional Northern lights.

Panic in the Arctic as mystery fire breaks out on Russian nuclear ship (msn.com)

 A mystery fire broke out on Russia’s only nuclear-powered cargo ship in the Arctic – triggering panic onboard. 

A blaze on the Sevmorput broke out as the vessel was berthed at a high-security dock, with no injuries reported.

One local posted: ‘I saw several fire units rushing there, and an ambulance.’

Another message read: ‘Shall we leave now? Is there anything from the authorities? Why no update? It would be too late to run given what kind of ship this is.’

Russia gave only limited information about the fire, claiming later it had been extinguished after breaking out in a 322-square-foot area.

The Russian Emergency Situations Ministry did not explain the cause of the fire, but said: ‘There were no injuries in the incident.’

[chris talpas]

Would giving the Ukrainians the ability to cause some hurt to the Rostov on Don logistics hubs and infrastructure of a military nature (HQ, ammo or fuel dumps) be too escalatory?

Bringing the war to the home front might apply some needed domestic pressure as well as muck up supply efforts to the occupation forces.

 

 

[Haiduk]

Russians don't abandon their own %)

This guy didn't win a race with MTLB %)