How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[photon]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

About two thousand pages ago I suggested that the best analogical comparison to the Russians was the Japanese. The Russians really do appear to be emulating the Japanese playbook, which puts us somewhere after Pearl Harbor (the failed attempt to decapitate Ukraine and win in three days), the Solomons campaign (analogical to the attritional summer Bakhmut offensive), after the beginning of Cartwheel and the push up the Marianas (the one-two punch of the Ukrainian fall offensives), and around the time of the battle of the Philippine Sea, when the declining quality of Japanese aviators really began to tell (perhaps Vulhedar and that failed river crossing). The Russians even appear to be attempting gyokusai-like assaults in the Donbas.

To me the open question is how to convince the Russians to abandon a war that they've already lost. It took firebombing, nuclear weapons, and the undersea blockade to get the Japanese leadership there, and that almost resulted in a civil war. How does the west communicate to the Russians that they've lost without similar loss of life?

[Lethaface]

5 minutes ago, Butschi said:

The problem here is: Putin & Cronies can press the Big Red Button without asking the rest of the Russian people first. If they go irrational and soldiers just follow orders that is enough to start Armageddon no matter how rational the Russian people is.

At least it will be a sight to behold, I advise looking directly into the light because the aftermath won't be as pretty. I guess the city I live in would be directly targeted because there is a military base. It will be quick.

If they go crazy there's little we can do about it anyway, apart from trying to kill m. But doing that might be a trigger in itself. So not much point to worry about it I'd say. Plus I don't think they are that crazy. 

[Beleg85]

17 minutes ago, billbindc said:

There is no evidence at all that Putin and his cronies are acting irrationally within their own zeitgeist. The nukes haven't been put in a use posture, and they haven't made direct threats to use nukes offensively. If anything, when it comes to acts Russia has been careful to refrain from escalatory behavior towards NATO and the US. 

Where I worry is that Putin and his cronies have been content to let a lot of loose and apocalyptic talk about nukes flourish in their kept media. It's starting to seep into the culture. That's what happened to Japan. Things that had been unthinkable in 1925 were acceptable by 1945 like tokko operations and "body-crashing" tactics. In other words, I don't worry too much about this war. I worry what a broken Russia might do in the next one.

That is also one of my greatest concern regarding this war. Katsaps started to zombify population much too late and not deep enough to form serious ideological drive for ongoing conflict, but unless they will not stop soon, in window of let's say 5-10 years from now their resentiment will be massive. By that time nobody will even know what the war was about, because it will be their only reality. Even when we manage to broker stable peace, we will have to deal with genuinly fashist state for perhaps decades. Unless they collapse of course, but I think this is very unlikely. Anyway, very bad emotions will run high there for at least a generation.

 

Edited February 17, 2023 by Beleg85

[Lethaface]

4 minutes ago, photon said:

About two thousand pages ago I suggested that the best analogical comparison to the Russians was the Japanese. The Russians really do appear to be emulating the Japanese playbook, which puts us somewhere after Pearl Harbor (the failed attempt to decapitate Ukraine and win in three days), the Solomons campaign (analogical to the attritional summer Bakhmut offensive), after the beginning of Cartwheel and the push up the Marianas (the one-two punch of the Ukrainian fall offensives), and around the time of the battle of the Philippine Sea, when the declining quality of Japanese aviators really began to tell (perhaps Vulhedar and that failed river crossing). The Russians even appear to be attempting gyokusai-like assaults in the Donbas.

To me the open question is how to convince the Russians to abandon a war that they've already lost. It took firebombing, nuclear weapons, and the undersea blockade to get the Japanese leadership there, and that almost resulted in a civil war. How does the west communicate to the Russians that they've lost without similar loss of life?

Japan is still stuck in China and hasn't attacked USA yet.

ChinaUkraine will hopefully soon be able communicate to JapanRussia that they've lost because they weather the 'storm' of the coming 'father of all offensives' and counterpunch right through the spend Russian forces at Bakhmut / Vulhedar, while HIMARSing the rear. 
But I don't see anyone attacking into Russia proper let alone occupation or nukes, so the end won't be like the end of the war with Japan.

[Lethaface]

1 minute ago, Beleg85 said:

That is also one of my greatest concern regarding this war. Katsaps started to zombify population much too late and not deep enough to form serious ideological drive for ongoing conflict, but unless they will not stop soon, in window of let's say 5-10 years from now their resentiment will be massive. By that time nobody will even know what the war was about, because it will be their only reality. Even when we manage to broker stable peace, we will have to deal with genuinly fashist state for perhaps decades. Unless they collapse of course, but I think this is very unlikely. Anyway, very bad emotions will run high there for at least a generation.

 

If they manage to successfully brainwash large parts of the new generations, that doesn't bode well indeed. Who knows the usual corruption will also undermine these efforts. At least Putin will have a good chance of dying in 5-10 years. 

[MSBoxer]

55 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

I’m beginning to think that the troubles the Russian population will face will, overall, be handled the same way that rural residents in the U.S. handled the problems and effects of the “Great Depression.” 
Interviews or Most farmers, ranchers, etc, many stated that didn’t even realize they were in an economic depression. They simply continued to grow and breed their provisions, and eke out their “hard scrabble” lives as they always had. The Depression mainly affected the urban populations because they had trouble paying their loans and mortgages, and getting food. The vast majority of the Russian people are rural, and already know how to produce and barter for food, shelter, and everything they need to survive. I seriously doubt the sanctions are given more than a passing thought by them. The ones affected are primarily the urban residents who are mostly unable to do that.

My wife's grandmother told us the same.  They would never have known about the depression as farmers in central IL if not for newspapers.  They rarely had money and were so accustomed to helping their neighbors that as a community their lives did not really change much.

[Erwin]

13 minutes ago, photon said:

the best analogical comparison to the Russians was the Japanese.

Suggest that the analogy is more apt to Russia as the hapless WW2 Italians and Mussolini's ambitions to recreate Rome's empire in the Med and then his disastrous invasion of Albania and Greece which required bailing out by Hitler.

The Chinese would be akin to Hitler and the Nazis, who actually had world domination ambitions and who believed they had the ability to carry it out - starting in China.  When the US started economic sanctions to slow down or stop the Japanese expansion and intent to form a "Greater SE Asia" empire, the Japanese thought it better to attack the US assets and allies in the East in order to force the US back across the Pacific.  

[MikeyD]

China has world domination ambitions?

[Beleg85]

2 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

If they manage to successfully brainwash large parts of the new generations, that doesn't bode well indeed. Who knows the usual corruption will also undermine these efforts. At least Putin will have a good chance of dying in 5-10 years. 

Even if he die earlier, the problem by that point will be much broader than Vlad himself- it will be successive Russian politicians dwelling on feeling of defeat/misery/betrayal. Corruption is not exclusive with fanaticism in any way, actually if used smartly by rulers it may even enforce their views "whole world is against us". We talked abut it extensivelly when Grigb was still around.

That's why we need both strong Ukraine and protected Eastern Flank- they can try to respond by irresponsible actions in the future. State terrorism, further mercenary companies in and abroad, hybrd warfare of various kinds etc. Looking at propagadna machine as well as Russian political mainstream, I see cascading radicalization- threats against Berlin, London or Helsinki are flying daily, on main channels (this was rather limited at the start of the conflict); not even counting Warsaw or Tallin. 75% of it is theatre for now, but even if I would be Western European (German, Scandinavian or Dutch) I wouldn't sleep very well knowing what they are talking there. Sooner or later they may find some desperados.

[Butschi]

34 minutes ago, billbindc said:

There is no evidence at all that Putin and his cronies are acting irrationally within their own zeitgeist

I agree. Just saying, if they go crazy it probably doesn't matter much how the rest of Russia feels about it.

[Butschi]

36 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

At least it will be a sight to behold, I advise looking directly into the light because the aftermath won't be as pretty. I guess the city I live in would be directly targeted because there is a military base. It will be quick.

If they go crazy there's little we can do about it anyway, apart from trying to kill m. But doing that might be a trigger in itself. So not much point to worry about it I'd say. Plus I don't think they are that crazy. 

Always look on the bright side of life...

[chuckdyke]

The old silk road even today if you control it you control the world. It covers the Middle East and the Far East. Still the foundation of World Politics. China wants to control the Far East blind Freddie can see this. (CM ignores far east hypothetical games) China needs allies in the MIddle East (Iran). If Russia wants a meaningful role they need complete control of the Black Sea and the Ukraine threw a spanner in the works. Either Russia is humiliated and becomes a future Austria depends on this generation. Austria Hungary was just an out-of-date feudal system when it was an empire. 

[Lethaface]

2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Even if he die earlier, the problem by that point will be much broader than Vlad himself- it will be successive Russian politicians dwelling on feeling of defeat/misery/betrayal. Corruption is not exclusive with fanaticism in any way, actually if used smartly by rulers it may even enforce their views "whole world is against us". We talked abut it extensivelly when Grigb was still around.

That's why we need both strong Ukraine and protected Eastern Flank- they can try to respond by irresponsible actions in the future. State terrorism, further mercenary companies in and abroad, hybrd warfare of various kinds etc. Looking at propagadna machine as well as Russian political mainstream, I see cascading radicalization- threats against Berlin, London or Helsinki are flying daily, on main channels (this was rather limited at the start of the conflict); not even counting Warsaw or Tallin. 75% of it is theatre for now, but even if I would be Western European (German, Scandinavian or Dutch) I wouldn't sleep very well knowing what they are talking there. Sooner or later they may find some desperados.

I don't let those garbage spouting puppets ruin my sleep, I think it's not even worthy listening to too much. Unless you work for intelligence and get paid to record it ;-).
But indeed whole Europe/EU/NATO and obviously Ukraine need to make sure they have the power to prevent future (hybrid) special operations, incursions, peacekeepers, green-man; the whole playbook. 

[Lethaface]

10 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Always look on the bright side of life...

The same song also goes 'always look on the bright side of death' . 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

At least it will be a sight to behold, I advise looking directly into the light because the aftermath won't be as pretty. I guess the city I live in would be directly targeted because there is a military base. It will be quick.

If they go crazy there's little we can do about it anyway, apart from trying to kill m. But doing that might be a trigger in itself. So not much point to worry about it I'd say. Plus I don't think they are that crazy. 

hey look on the bright side, halting global warming with a nuclear winter!  It is only a small step past the idea of nuking a hurricane.  

[Aragorn2002]

25 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

The same song also goes 'always look on the bright side of death' . 

Exactly. Eventually we all die. Memento mori. ☠

[sross112]

21 hours ago, billbindc said:

If this is as hard as you gents make out...which I believe...then what exactly is the Russian air campaign that's being telegraphed supposed to accomplish? Tactical bombing to spring the mobiks? A banzai attack to show the boss that the air force is just as all in as the army? 

I'm thinking that it will be a flood of tactical aviation designed for limited frontline objectives. Probably something along the lines of smashing up and taking Bahkmut or Vuhledar or something. They will most likely take horrendous losses in doing it, but so far that hasn't stopped them on the ground. If they lose 50 planes but can take the little piece of ground they will sing their "victory" from the rooftops. I think that is what the Kremlin is howling for, a victory of any size at any price. They just need a victory to feed the people no matter how insignificant it truly is.

Just my prediction for the impending offensive. 

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, Probus said:

Has this thread already discussed the implications of BFC releasing a Black Sea update based on the events of 2022?  I am very curious to hear BFC's thoughts. @BFCElvis @Battlefront.com @Battlefront

Yes, VERY!

52 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

My wife's grandmother told us the same.  They would never have known about the depression as farmers in central IL if not for newspapers.  They rarely had money and were so accustomed to helping their neighbors that as a community their lives did not really change much.

But you have to keep in mind that the Russian agricultural system has been subjected to multiple more or less horrific reorganizations for at least a ~160 years. When the serfs were "freed" in 1861 they stuck with great deal of debt to compensate the landowners. Then there were the manifest horrors of collectivization, that resulted in the Holodomor in Ukraine, and wasn't exactly pleasant anywhere else in the Soviet Union. This of course was followed by the utterly corrupt breakdown of the Soviet system in the late eighties and early nineties. I am not saying there are not some more or less self sufficient settlements and farmsteads scattered across Russia, but they are nowhere close to a majority. The ones that were are probably a lot less so after their military age males were harvested like live stock to feed the meat grinder of this war.

I saw an article months ago about a village somewhere out past the Urals that had HALF its male population called up. The only question was whether it starved quickly, or managed to whither more slowly if some of the men's military pay actually made it back home.

Like this one

 

Quote

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-village-mobilization-ukraine-impact-far-east/32151036.html

 

[Beleg85]

https://wiadomosci-wp-pl.translate.goog/ta-bron-pomoze-ukrainie-general-ujawnia-szczegoly-ws-produkcji-granatnika-6866744964135552a?_x_tr_sl=pl&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Interesting...it seems one private Polish military holding want to start producing RPG-76 Komar ('Mosquito") again specifically for the use by Ukrainian army. This little stop-gap granade launcher from Soviet times was a subject of jokes in PL military, but it flood Ukraine just before invasion and unexpectedly became quite popular among troops using it. Ukrainians scored destructive hits on APC's, IFV's, armoured trucks and other lighter vehicles with it. I remember one TD soldier early in the war bragging how his squad "lightened up" entire muscovite mechanized platoon near Kharkiv only with these things, with every soldier easily carrying 1-2 Komars in their backpacks.

Now they want to change metal corpse into polimeric and introduce new thermobaric warhead able to penetrate 500 RhA, which could potentially give it ability to counter some tanks.

In article, there is also growing concern that we do not produce enough ammo for Ukrainian needs. There are manufactures of small mortar rounds, drone bomblets and similar stuff, but it still needs to to be ramped up significantly on industrial scale if we wnat to keep them in fighting.

[MSBoxer]

29 minutes ago, sross112 said:

I'm thinking that it will be a flood of tactical aviation designed for limited frontline objectives. Probably something along the lines of smashing up and taking Bahkmut or Vuhledar or something. They will most likely take horrendous losses in doing it, but so far that hasn't stopped them on the ground. If they lose 50 planes but can take the little piece of ground they will sing their "victory" from the rooftops. I think that is what the Kremlin is howling for, a victory of any size at any price. They just need a victory to feed the people no matter how insignificant it truly is.

Just my prediction for the impending offensive. 

To me an aviation offensive of this nature seems like an admission that their artillery and PGM/cruise missile offensive has failed and that stocks are running low.  You don't send a manned aircraft when tubes/rockets/missiles are effective and available.

[MSBoxer]

22 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Yes, VERY!

But you have to keep in mind that the Russian agricultural system has been subjected to multiple more or less horrific reorganizations for at least a ~160 years. When the serfs were "freed" in 1861 they stuck with great deal of debt to compensate the landowners. Then there were the manifest horrors of collectivization, that resulted in the Holodomor in Ukraine, and wasn't exactly pleasant anywhere else in the Soviet Union. This of course was followed by the utterly corrupt breakdown of the Soviet system in the late eighties and early nineties. I am not saying there are not some more or less self sufficient settlements and farmsteads scattered across Russia, but they are nowhere close to a majority. The ones that were are probably a lot less so after their military age males were harvested like live stock to feed the meat grinder of this war.

I saw an article months ago about a village somewhere out past the Urals that had HALF its male population called up. The only question was whether it starved quickly, or managed to whither more slowly if some of the men's military pay actually made it back home.

Like this one

 

 

I completely agree that there is a huge difference. I was merely supporting the comment on how the depression affected rural communities in the US 100 years ago.  I doubt it would be the same now.

 

[Vet 0369]

2 hours ago, JonS said:

According to the CIA world Facebook, 75.3% of Russia's142,021,981 people (2022 est.)are classified as urban population.

So Russia has only about 50 some percent of the U.S. population of about 310,000,000? Of course as a 2022 estimate, it would now be somewhere nearer to 142,000,000.

[fireship4]

7 hours ago, billbindc said:

Would 100 aircraft be remotely enough to materially change anything on the ground? Their PGMS that are left aren't particularly P or G and their pilots are going to be flying for their lives given Ukraine's air defenses. 

What about on the other side?  There has been talk over the last week since Zelenskyy visited the UK about providing 100 Eurofighter Typhoons to Ukraine - they would seem to be Tranche 1, lacking compatibility with the MBDA Meteor.

https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-may-send-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-over-long-term-after-zelenskyy-plea/

https://www.forces.net/ukraine/boris-johnson-calls-uk-send-its-jets-and-tanks-help-ukraine-finish-job

https://www.forces.net/ukraine/typhoons-not-best-fighter-jet-send-ukraine-expert-says

Edited February 17, 2023 by fireship4

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.yahoo.com/video/almost-men-mobilised-remote-regions-154954722.html

Another article about how Russia is systematically stripping men from the countryside. They appear to to have started with the most remote and most non Russian places intentionally.

[Battlefront.com]

ISW's report for February 16th summarized the various reports coming out about Russian airpower rumors.  Most of the sources cited have already been posted here and discussed, so it's more of a summary:

Quote

Russian forces are reportedly increasing their use of airpower in Ukraine but are unlikely to dedicate significant amounts of airpower to combat operations over Ukrainian-controlled territory. The Financial Times (FT), citing shared NATO-member intelligence, reported on February 14 that Russia is massing fixed-wing and rotary aircraft near the Russo-Ukrainian border and suggested that Russian fighter jets may support an offensive on the ground.[15] Russian opposition outlet Important Stories, citing an internal Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) source, reported on February 16 that the Russian military is changing tactics and has committed to using large amounts of airpower in Ukraine.[16] A senior NATO official reported that 80 percent of Russia’s airpower remains intact and that Russian forces have been attempting to disable Ukrainian air defenses in preparation for a large strike campaign.[17] The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported on February 16 that Russian sortie rates have increased over the past week to levels last seen in summer 2022 but noted that Russian forces have not increased their air presence in Ukraine and assessed that Russian forces are not likely preparing for an extended air campaign.[18] US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin stated that current Ukrainian air defense capabilities are not sufficient to combat a renewed wave of air attacks but stated that there are no imminent signs of a massive Russian aerial attack.[19] Important Stories noted that Russian forces have not likely adequately trained enough personnel to fully crew their aircraft.[20] Russian forces would likely suffer unsustainable aircraft losses if they committed aircraft to extended combat operations like a strategic bombing campaign or close air support, especially if Western states provide Ukraine with adequate air defense capabilities.

The conclusion ISW came to is the same as put forward here... Russia would likely lose a large amount of its irreplaceable aircraft.   No comment on what the impact might be.

Steve