How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

Bryan often nails it:

https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/3818412-ukraines-decision-centric-military-needs-more-than-armor-to-win/

Longer-range missiles including ATACMS, drones such as the MQ-9 Reaper, and F-16 fighter aircraft would not just help Ukraine fight like NATO would but also could help Kyiv’s defenders pioneer the next era in military operations. While the creaking Pentagon bureaucracy trundles toward all-domain command and control and a new warfighting concept, Ukrainian troops are putting them into action. The U.S. government should enable Ukraine’s innovation and then learn from it. 

Again, the Boyd cycle comes up in the form of increasing your options while eliminating the enemy's. But there is a temporal component to the cycle and it's key to identify when the time is right to strike where the enemy is weakest. So the total number and type of new NATO systems is not important in themselves, it's about combining them into all knowing synergistic packages that present Russia with unsolvable dilemmas everyday. 

Edited January 27, 2023 by kevinkin

[JonS]

57 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

For the life of me I can’t figure out who this is.

I think he's talking about you, mate, but mixing your cap badge up with combatintguy's

Edited January 27, 2023 by JonS

[Vanir Ausf B]

Terminators doing forestry work.

 

[The_Capt]

17 minutes ago, JonS said:

I think he's talking about you, mate, but mixing your cap badge up with combatintguy's

Ah, well zero-for-zero then but I am all about anonymity.  Leave them wondering and let the myths grow.  I heard The Capt was a naval officer who lost an eye in a bar fight in Manila, and now runs guns and rum under the cover of a travelling manatee show.  His insights on military affairs come entirely from MASH reruns and RoW tournaments.

[The_MonkeyKing]

8 hours ago, poesel said:

I feel a bit neglected: now that we deliver the tanks, nobody is interested in Germany anymore!

Yeah I don't think we really have to worry about Germany anymore. This was the last handbrake they really had.

The next hurdles will be interceptor aircraft and longer range precision fires. Germany really has neither that would be relevant for Ukraine. Of course they might object but they don't have to and cannot take the leading role like with the leopards.

[Hacketäuer]

9 hours ago, poesel said:

I feel a bit neglected: now that we deliver the tanks, nobody is interested in Germany anymore!

FYI, this is the aftermath of the 'Panzerdeal' here in Germany.

Very unsurprisingly, all the pro-tank parties (Greens, FDP, half of SPD, CDU) are happy while the anti-tank parties are not (Left, AfD, other half of SPD). Of course, there's some grumbling from the opposition (and from some in the coalition, too) that that was too slow.
But the main point of criticism from nearly everyone was, that the chancellor failed to explain his reasoning while he was doing it.

Judging Scholz just by the results, most pundits (and I) have to grudgingly admit, that he did quite well.
From an inner politic view, he was not too early and didn't rush it. He was also not too late, to create enough turmoil in the coalition for any lasting damage. Thus, he has appeased the reluctant half of the population, while also (finally) pleasing those who wanted to have sent tanks long ago.
In the foreign politics field, he managed to create a broad coalition of nations who will send heavy tanks. Not only in Europe, but the US, too. Getting the US to commit Abrams is a success - no one knows who will be next in the Oval Office.

OTOH he did aggravate a lot of people, especially in the EEC. Weighing this with the effects inside Germany, that is still a win for him. So he put the German interests before foreign ones - that kind of behavior is quite common for many nations, but not from Germany (in the past).
I guess this will be some kind of 'new normal' that others have to get used to.

So from a German perspective, Scholz couldn't have done it better (that is a strange sentence). Everyone is a bit upset, but the issue has been resolved.
However, since he didn't explain himself (see above), we don't know if this is the intended outcome or just luck. And I guess we never will...

How is this a win? He traded germanys reputation as an ally for (maybe) some inner-party peace. 

After the announcement of the Marder delivery the Ukraine it was clear that western tanks would be next. Yet nothing was decided or prepared. 

Plus, If the decision would have been made earlier replacements for the Bundeswehr would arrive sooner. One year after "Zeitenwende" the Bundeswehr is definetly weaker now.

[sburke]

Just a small piece of anecdotal info from a group I donate to on the intensity of the fighting.

Quote

Two out of three evacuation vehicles were recently destroyed in the artillery attack on the medical stabilization hospital in Bakhmut

https://manage.kmail-lists.com/subscriptions/web-view?a=QYH7Cc&c=01G4T82FWR9PYYWN06K2P651A9&k=06a9247b090166919bc1258ad2776b88&m=01GQJG0SCVGCHKE5JTCSMKFE2Z&r=UcNiZ8i

[Combatintman]

3 hours ago, JonS said:

I think he's talking about you, mate, but mixing your cap badge up with combatintguy's

Yes I am cranky and caustic ...

[Elmar Bijlsma]

5 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Recent Russian strike on a Ukrainian S-300 battery outside of Lisna Stinka, Kharkiv Oblast

 

Maybe the shot at the start is recent. But I think the rest of the drone footage is from the summer judging by the state of the fields and trees.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

6 hours ago, JonS said:

So, are we still in favour of the international rules based order, or are we against it now?

 

Integrity is doing the right thing, even when no-one is watching.

Withholding cluster munitions is not the right thing, but an irrational taboo, completely inadequate in this situation. The reason why US stopped using them was that the bomblets had 2% dud rate instead of the 1% dud rate, which is the accepted threshold for the US military from the UXO hazard point of view. Obviously this is based on concerns typical for the wars that the US is engaged in, counterinsurgencies in countries not fully capable to clean up their territory from failed munitions, where the hostilities are taking place next to civilian life. Ukraine is a country in Europe, waging a full scale war on its own land, which is already full of all kinds of unexploded bombs and shells, Russians cluster munitions included. Some DPICM bomblets (which probably have a dud rate much lower than the Russian ones) will not add to the UXO hazard in any appreciable way. Let it be the Ukrainians’ decision.

The same goes for the AP mines, which the Ukrainian soil is already riddled with because Russians plant them by the ton.

[poesel]

6 hours ago, dan/california said:

I really wonder how this plays in Germany. Could it be good timing for Scholz? In that Ukraine will simply do whatever he wants done as a thank you for the Leopards?

Didn't make the news here, yet. Even if it would, nobody would care about two numbnuts who fought for Russia - unless they would get a death penalty. We are picky about that.

6 hours ago, dan/california said:

Yeah this is the next fight, and not just with Germany. Hopefully at least some people have hopefully learned that saying yes very quietly is the best way to respond.

I'm with Jons on this. Also, there will never be an official ok from Germany. No way.

1 hour ago, Hacketäuer said:

How is this a win? He traded germanys reputation as an ally for (maybe) some inner-party peace. 

...

There is this other half of Germany that is against sending tanks. I still haven't met one, but they exist. It was done this way for their sake.

[Zeleban]

 

New message from Mashovts. A little about the situation near Kremennaya, as well as information about the hitherto little-known PMC Redut (it was previously reported that this company belongs to Defense Minister Shoigu)

The enemy command in the Lyman direction began to actively strengthen its grouping of troops by units and units of airborne troops. Obviously, striving to achieve a fundamental change in the situation in their favor, in particular:

on the northern and northwestern outskirts of Kremennaya, 2 battalions of the 104th Airborne Assault Regiment of the 76th Airborne Assault Division are deployed, digging in and preparing occupied positions for defense

subdivisions of two more regiments of this division (the 234th and 237th airborne assault regiments) are concentrated in the area of the village Kuzmines are being re-equipped, are being replenished, are getting ready to go into battle

battalion of the 331st Airborne Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division, deployed in the area of Dybrova, takes part in the attacks

separately, the 31st separate amphibious assault brigade is concentrated in the reserve, almost in its entirety in the Luhansk region.

In the same direction, the enemy continues its fruitless attempts to advance in the direction of Liman, with the aim of pushing the Armed Forces beyond the Black Zerebec River

Thus, during the previous days, the enemy made at least two attempts to advance in this direction:

with the forces of two motorized rifle platoons from the 55th separate motorized rifle brigade, with the support of artillery, but without armored vehicles, he attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the direction of Chervonpopovka - Yampolevka

and also with the forces of two platoons from the 331st regiment of the 98th airborne division, he tried to attack with the support of 2-3 tanks and 2 armored personnel carriers in the direction of Dybrova - Torskoye, Dybrova - Yampolevka.

Both requests ended in vain for the enemy.

Information on the combat and quantitative composition of tanks (T-72, T-80, T-90 type tanks) in the zone of defense of units and formations of the 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army of the Central Military District as of January 25, 2023

A total of 127, including:

At positions — 73 (T-72 – 26, T-80 – 46, T-90 – 0)

In the area of concentration - 18 (T-72 - 0, T-80 - 13, T-90 - 5)

SPAM – 36 (T-72 – 10, T-80 – 25, T – 90 – 1)

Thus, it becomes clear that the situation with tanks in a typical Russian general army (and the 2nd Guards CAA is not currently among the most active in terms of the participation of its units and formations in combat operations, but rather is a "reserve" storage unit) looks like It's sad enough - almost 45% of this type of equipment is in a state of being knocked down, out of order for technical reasons...

That is, in two motorized rifle brigades of the army (15th and 21st), in two tank and one motorized rifle regiments of the 4th TD (attached from the 1st Guards TA), in 2 tank regiments of the 90th TD (6th and 80th TR), as well as in the 1234th MRR of the territorial troops, a total of only 90-91 more or less combat-ready tanks... that's only 3 tank battalions...for the entire combined army... Let's put it bluntly - not densely.

Moreover, in most cases, all of them are spread across regiments and brigades... 5-7 tanks are in positions and 4-6 tanks are in concentration areas...

 

[Butschi]

7 hours ago, JonS said:

So, are we still in favour of the international rules based order, or are we against it now?

Of course we uphold our values. As long as they are useful for us.

 

[Butschi]

8 hours ago, dan/california said:

Hopefully at least some people have hopefully learned that saying yes very quietly is the best way to respond.

I'll take you up on that when Ukraine asks for nukes.

[Der Zeitgeist]

New German public opinion survey results just came in from ZDF Politbarometer/Forschungsgruppe Wahlen.

Pretty solid 54% majority there favouring the transfer of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. Breakdown among supporters of our different parties on the right of the chart. It breaks down similar to previous surveys, with support being highest among Green party voters, and lowest among right-wing AfD and left-wing Die Linke.

[Der Zeitgeist]

8 hours ago, dan/california said:

I really wonder how this plays in Germany. Could it be good timing for Scholz? In that Ukraine will simply do whatever he wants done as a thank you for the Leopards?

So far, this "German Wagner mercs captured" story didn't play much at all in Germany. Haven't seen anything on it outside the usual Twitter discussion circles.

Legally, this could be an interesting case. With Germans fighting for ISIS being captured by Kurdish factions in Syria, usually extradition to Germany was the way to go, with the individualy being arrested at the airport and then tried for various things in German courts. 

[Huba]

18 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Indeed, that is why "good enough", haha.

Good enough would be probably little less than what the Finnish military gets in training. That is 6 months for mech infantry (3months basic how to be soldier and 3 months of mech infantry training).

12 months for tankers (3months basic how to be soldier, 3 months of tank equipment course and last 6 months of how to fight as mech force)

In UKR case you can leave out the "3months basic how to be soldier" part from both and when you leave out all the peace time stuff and holidays you can get both down at least by third.

17 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

The more I think about it more strange does it soundline.

How can Finland make mechanised forces in 6mos for dismounts, 12mo for tank crew, 12mo for all NCOs and platoon leaders? (company commander and above are professional in mech forces)

Must be related to that company CO and "sergeant" are professional career soldiers. 

Reading through all the pages that were spawned when I was away will take me next 2 days, so sorry if this was already answered.
What I heard is that the uber-tanks will for now be grouped in armored brigade ( perhaps brigades, but at the moment there's only equipment for a single one). One of the already existing armored brigades will retrain for Leopards while their remaining vehicles will be handed to newly raised tank battalions in mech brigades. Source of the rumor suggested that it will be the 1st Tank Brigade that will undergo re-training, which was reportedly gutted at Chernihiv and never fully reconstituted. 

What it means is that both basic soldiering and fighting as armored unit are already taken care of quite well.

Edited January 27, 2023 by Huba

[Zeleban]

A short orientation to the Redoubt PMC, which is actively involved in the war against Ukraine.

Created in 2006 by a group of veterans and intelligence officers of the 106th airborne division, 56th airborne brigade, 173rd separate regiment of the Special Forces, 2nd separate brigade of the Special Forces of the GRU (according to other sources - since 2008 and was created by the leadership of the public veteran organization "Veterans of peacekeeping missions and local conflicts", but this is most likely a "legend" of operational cover).

In fact, this is a secret “special forces” unit of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, formally part of the 45th Special Forces Brigade of the Airborne Forces (VDV) of the RF Armed Forces (this is the former “45th Separate Reconnaissance Regiment of the Special Forces of the Airborne Forces”, military unit 28337, based in the village of Kubinka-1, Moscow Region) - it is considered its so-called "freelance unit" ... However, without any doubt, it also acts in the interests of the GRU General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces

Their current commander/chief is the former deputy commander of the 45th regiment of the Special Forces of the Airborne Forces - Konstantin Yuryevich Mirzoyants, his deputy is Sergey Salivanov, call sign "Salekh" (both pretend to be businessmen in the field of "delivery of drinking water to order" and the provision of "consulting services "in the field of security and protection"). "Salekh" is usually recommended as the "deputy commander" of the "7 Redoubts" project

the total number of "employees of the company" - up to 7000 fighters. The main point of permanent deployment is 130 km from the Moscow Ring Road, the border between the Moscow and Kaluga regions (Tarussky district). The main training centers and bases are Kubinka, next to military unit 28337 (the 45th brigade of the Special Forces of the Airborne Forces), the "main" base in the Tambov region, on the territory of the 16th brigade of the Special Forces of the GRU, where it also finds the main "recruitment point" (the personnel center of the "company"), there are also training centers in Krasnodar and Rostov-on-Don.

Officially, the activities of the "company" are allegedly security and safety, certification of specialists for the provision of these services, training of personal security groups, briefing of specialists before a business trip on demining, protection of international facilities according to UN requirements and other legal "areas of activity". In fact, the "company" is a frank reconnaissance and sabotage formation of the armed forces of the Russian Federation, whose specialization is deep reconnaissance and sabotage in the operational and strategic rear of the enemy, as well as reconnaissance at the tactical level in difficult and special conditions.

The "company" is divided into 2 uneven parts - the so-called permanent composition (former and acting "seconded" Russian military personnel from the Airborne Forces and units of the Special Forces of the GRU) and "variable" composition (mostly recruited convicted citizens of the Russian Federation, citizens of the Central Asian republics and Russian citizens who voluntarily agreed to sign a short-term contract with the "company" for 6 months). Of course, their usage is also "significantly different".

The main divisions of the "company":

- WOLVES GROUP

-SOBR REDUT (this is a part of contract mercenaries whose contracts were signed through the SOBR special unit of the Ministry of the Interior).

-SURF (a specialized unit that escorts cargo on ships off the Horn of Africa and "liberates hostages held by Somali pirates")

- CONTROL (this part was specially created to control prisoners recruited in Russian colonies)

- HUNTER

- DEGTYAR

 

- SHMEL(bumblebee)

 

- MONGOOS

But in this context, it should be noted that, depending on the tasks that the leadership of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation sets for it, it is very variable in terms of the formation and organization of its units and can operate in groups and units of any numerical and qualitative composition ... as a "permanent" " , and "variable" statuses, or even mixed units in this sense.

For example, during operations in Syria, the Redut PMC acted as a specially formed unit (250-300 fighters) under the legend of employees of the SHIELD security agency, allegedly a structural department of Gennady Timchenko's StroyTransGaz company. They were engaged both in the protection of objects belonging to Mr. Timchenko, and in a certain expropriation for him of other real estate objects in the sphere of the "oil and gas complex".

In general, PMC "redoubt" has already managed to appear in Georgia, Syria, Iraq, Somalia, Ukraine, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, the Caucasus, Africa, Indonesia and "a number of countries in the Middle East.

[Zeleban]

The main sources of recruitment are - former personnel of the Airborne Forces and the GRU (including from among the so-called "blacklisted", that is, those dismissed from military service for committing criminal offenses and for "discrediting"), convicted citizens of the Russian Federation, citizens of medium and Central Asian republics, migrants, students. The first category is completed by the "permanent staff", that is, the organizational and combat core of the "company".

The "company" was involved in the war with Ukraine even before the start of a massive invasion of its territory. The first divisions of the company began to deploy in the occupied territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions at the end of 2021 and at the beginning of January 2022. In addition, at least 2 divisions (groups) of the "company" became part of the Northern Main Forces of Russia in advance (they were deployed on the territory of Belarus 2 months before the invasion) and actively operated in the Kiev direction, starting from the moment of their deployment. It has been reliably established that the main combat units of the "company" - Surf, Hunter, Degtyar, Bumblebee, Mongoose - were actively operating (and continue to operate) on the territory of Ukraine.

Evidence of the "company's activities" on the territory of Ukraine, which became known from open sources:

On February 23, 2022, one of the groups of the "company" crossed the Seversky Donets and conducted a reconnaissance and sabotage search in the rear of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, making several raids on the positions and locations of Ukrainian troops.

February 24, "company employees" took a direct part in the capture of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. Subsequently, they acted at the forefront of the enemy’s Northern grouping and made several attempts to penetrate Kyiv in order to act against political, administrative and military facilities in the capital (by the way, it was the units of this “company”, according to known data, that were instructed to attack the SBU building on Vladimirovskaya Street, 33). These groups of the "company" were on the territory of the Kyiv region (and not only were "located", but also actively operated) until the end of March, after which they were withdrawn to the Donbass.

At least 5 groups of the "company" also operated in the Kharkiv direction (Ilimovtsy, Wolves, Hooligans, Marines, Axes). They were also taken to Donbass on March 21-22.

In early March, a case was recorded in the Kyiv region, when, as a result of poor coordination of Russian troops, two columns of this PMC, mistaking each other for an enemy, fired on each other, during which the commander of one of the Redut detachments, Ivan Mikheev callsign "North", was wounded. On March 20, Sever died in the hospital from his wounds.

On September 10, in the Kharkiv region, a group of the reconnaissance unit of the 25th airborne brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine ambushed one of the Russian columns, as a result of which they captured two mercenaries of the "employees" of this "company" - citizens of Uzbekistan. According to the prisoners, both were recruited into the Redut PMC a month earlier in Moscow.

 

On September 19, 2022, another "employee of the company" was captured in battle near the city of Liman, this time a citizen of Belarus, who, according to him, signed a "short-term contract" with the Redut PMC back in July 2022.

And in conclusion, the most interesting thing about pvk "redoubt". Sources of funding and those who cooperate with this "security and safety office" with a powerful "aquarium" loop.

The main source of funding, of course, is the Ministry of Defense and a number of structures and organizations affiliated with it ... Equipment, weapons, food, uniforms, "basic payments", and sometimes armored vehicles, artillery, and even certain watercraft and air transport, provides quite logical - Shoigu.

But not only.

 

Two, well, very "owners respected in certain circles" Monsieur Deripaska and Shoigi's deputy for "construction and mortgage" issues Timur Ivanov are also directly involved in financing this "consulting organization" of the Russian Federation.

The first, apparently, is responsible for the "additional rations" for her. According to Saleh himself, Deripaska buys almost everything for the company: from uniforms to weapons. It is he who also pays informal bonuses to the salary for staying in the “NWZ zone” for the company's employees.

In turn, Timur Ivanov, who has recently managed to get into some kind of "corruption scandal" within the framework of internal undercover showdowns of "high officials", is directly responsible for the logistics of the "company" and satisfaction of their basic needs in areas of accommodation , dislocation and displacement.

You will be very surprised, but according to certain data, among the structures and organizations that cooperated (interacted in one way or another) with these Shoigov saboteurs "for hire" are:

Western military firm - FDG Corp.

Embassy of Somalia in Moscow

 

some respectable Iraqi company "Phoenix LLC"

security service of the "President of the Kurdistan Region - Iraq" and a similar structure of the Government of this region

and the most interesting - Special Group ISG-13 (Austria, Vienna)

and this is by no means a complete list.

Well, very interesting "bodyguards" from Shoigu.

[Artkin]

Supposedly 30 more PT-91s and 30 more T-72Ms:

 

Edited January 27, 2023 by Artkin

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/10mguev/ukrainian_45th_artillery_brigade_repels_wagners/

Finally seeing some airburst.

Out of curiosity I wonder what is up with the spread pattern. 

 

Edited January 27, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[Bulletpoint]

Looking at the map, it seems to me the obvious location for a Ukrainian summer offensive is in the south, from Orikhiv to the coast at Berdiansk, cutting the occupied areas in two and putting the whole western part, including Crimea, in one big pocket.

But maybe I'm wrong.

Is there any reason they wouldn't do that, apart from it being too obvious?

[hcrof]

7 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Looking at the map, it seems to me the obvious location for a Ukrainian summer offensive is in the south, from Orikhiv to the coast at Berdiansk, cutting the occupied areas in two and putting the whole western part, including Crimea, in one big pocket.

But maybe I'm wrong.

Is there any reason they wouldn't do that, apart from it being too obvious?

Melitopol is a shorter drive and would achieve the same effect. Even if you didn't capture the city outright, you would still cut the Russians in two with fire control. Then you just need to reduce the pocket.

[Bulletpoint]

21 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Melitopol is a shorter drive and would achieve the same effect. Even if you didn't capture the city outright, you would still cut the Russians in two with fire control. Then you just need to reduce the pocket.

True that it's a shorter drive, but it looks to me as if there are more access roads towards Melitopol from the east and west, making it easier to counterattack maybe? Whereas the drive towards Berdiansk, there's mostly rough country on the flanks, but there's a rail link going in the direction of the attack.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

29 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Looking at the map, it seems to me the obvious location for a Ukrainian summer offensive is in the south, from Orikhiv to the coast at Berdiansk, cutting the occupied areas in two and putting the whole western part, including Crimea, in one big pocket.

But maybe I'm wrong.

Is there any reason they wouldn't do that, apart from it being too obvious?

This direction and the direction of Orikhiv-Tokmak-Melitopol have been heavily manned and fortified by Russians. Ever since summer 2022 there has been a talk of the next Ukrainian offensive in Zaporozhie to cut the Crimea corridor. The Russians have been preparing for this for a long time.