How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Offshoot]

 

[kevinkin]

Milley did say this today which I missed earlier:

“Sooner or later, this is going to have to get to a negotiating table at some point in order to bring this to a conclusion, and that will have to happen when the end state, which is a free, sovereign, independent Ukraine with its territory intact, is met,” he said. “When that day comes, then people will sit down and negotiate an end to this.”

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

11 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

 with its territory intact

Much left unspoken there. If Ukraine regains it's pre-2014 borders on the battlefield there is very little left to negotiate.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Vanir Ausf B

[chrisl]

4 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Much left unspoken there. If Ukraine regains it's pre-2014 borders on the battlefield there is very little left to negotiate.

100 km DMZ on the RU side of the border.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/navy-seal-deserted-killed-in-ukraine

 

He was in for close to fifteen years, there is a long strange story here somewhere. Virtually no details in the article.

Peace to his family

Glory to ukraine 

Napalm to the Russian B^^T^*((DS

[JonS]

Typically irrational response. Dude's a deserter. Dude engaged in hostilities during a cross border conflict. Or did you think they're playing tiddlywinks in Ukraine?

War is Serious Business(tm).

Edited January 21, 2023 by JonS

[kevinkin]

1 hour ago, chrisl said:

100 km DMZ on the RU side of the border.

Yes, retaining those borders is well huge. But "winning the peace" will require some skill at the table. Russia will still have those damned WMDs to muddy the waters. 

[chuckdyke]

Germany knows not much has changed since WW 2. You need to take St Petersburg, Moscow and Wolgagrad. Two of the names have changed that is all. The war won't finish in the Ukraine. Germany thought it would be enough to capture France. How wrong they were. 

[Harmon Rabb]

Can any of our Ukrainian friends provide context here? Anyone know where this video was filmed?

[Zeleban]

6 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Can any of our Ukrainian friends provide context here? Anyone know where this video was filmed?

 

This happened in 2019 during the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. The man interviewed by Skabeeva is the infamous People's Deputy of Ukraine Borislav Bereza

[Der Zeitgeist]

11 hours ago, poesel said:

Oh boy, do I wish Helmut Schmidt or Wehner or even Strauss would still be alive. That would be FUN - unfortunately, the explanation why is too long and too off-topic here.

Careful what you wish for. Schmidt wasn't exactly a friend of Ukraine.

[niall78]

11 hours ago, dan/california said:

If there one thing I do not hold against Germany it is taking Russian gas while it was available. Cutting off that supply any sooner than the Russians did would have been a net negative for the overarching goal of Ukraine winning the war. I would simply point out that while that was a necessity, Germany was paying for the Russian side of the war up until the day the pipelines got blown. Furthermore decades of previous gas payments built the entire army that invaded Ukraine. The checks they are writing Ukraine ought to reflect that. 

Have to jump in on that one.

As the gas was sold on the world market the whole planet benefited from the Russian supplies dampening down the market price of such gas. When the Russian supply is cut Europe buys its gas elsewhere and the global price spirals effecting everyone. So everyone worldwide that uses gas helped build the Russian army.

Same way we are all still benefiting from Saudi oil worldwide and other nasty regimes even if our countries don't buy directly from them.  It's a pity that Western democratic countries are dependant on any crappy regime for any natural resource but we are. Fuel, rare earth metals, you name it we buy it and in the process support despotic countries that work to undermine us at any opportunity.

It's a problem all democracies have built up over decades and it really isn't the responsibility of one or two democracies to take all the flak for that situation developing.

[mosuri]

Tangentially related, in Sweden the convicted two Iranian-born brothers who were employed by Swedish intelligence agency for spying for Russia. Some relatively ridiculous sums of money (in the order of US$50k) apparently changed hands; doesn't sound like worth a life sentence?

https://apnews.com/article/sweden-government-stockholm-57182be4865a4657c0f243d980f1a547

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/19/former-swedish-intelligence-officer-receives-life-term-for-spying-for-russia

Just like to good old days, Russian moles in intelligence organizations ...

[Kraft]

27 minutes ago, mosuri said:

Some relatively ridiculous sums of money (in the order of US$50k) apparently changed hands; doesn't sound like worth a life sentence?

Quote

Robert Philip Hanssen is an American former FBI double agent who spied for Soviet and Russian intelligence services against the United States from 1979 to 2001 [..] 

Hanssen is currently serving 15 consecutive life sentences without parole [..]

He was charged with selling U.S. intelligence documents to the Soviet Union and subsequently Russia for more than $1.4 million in cash and diamonds over 22 years.

-wikipedia

 

Thats roughly 64k/year, he got out of death row for talking, despite being the reason for several US agents getting arrested and one executed. 

Edited January 21, 2023 by Kraft

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Careful what you wish for. Schmidt wasn't exactly a friend of Ukraine.

Good catch, you are right. But I'm not sure if he had changed his mind or not - having fought in WWII and such. Still, I miss his scathing commentary. That is some sharpness that has been lost in current politicians.

[hcrof]

Following the excellent discussion about modern warfare on this thread, I have tried to condense my thoughts on what a "modern" army should look like based on the lessons from Ukraine. 

I would love to hear your thoughts and criticism. I not touching the whole tank thing directly though - I am not sure I am ready to go there yet!

 

 

[Lethaface]

2 hours ago, niall78 said:

Have to jump in on that one.

As the gas was sold on the world market the whole planet benefited from the Russian supplies dampening down the market price of such gas. When the Russian supply is cut Europe buys its gas elsewhere and the global price spirals effecting everyone. So everyone worldwide that uses gas helped build the Russian army.

Same way we are all still benefiting from Saudi oil worldwide and other nasty regimes even if our countries don't buy directly from them.  It's a pity that Western democratic countries are dependant on any crappy regime for any natural resource but we are. Fuel, rare earth metals, you name it we buy it and in the process support despotic countries that work to undermine us at any opportunity.

It's a problem all democracies have built up over decades and it really isn't the responsibility of one or two democracies to take all the flak for that situation developing.

Well said.

[Huba]

6 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

Germany knows not much has changed since WW 2. You need to take St Petersburg, Moscow and Wolgagrad. Two of the names have changed that is all. The war won't finish in the Ukraine. Germany thought it would be enough to capture France. How wrong they were. 

You are thinking about conquering Russia. Japan, Crimea War allies, Imperial Germany and even Poland and Afghanistan have won wars against them not that long ago, it's perfectly possible to do by just beating them enough. 

Edited January 21, 2023 by Huba

[Bulletpoint]

About time:

"US to designate Wagner Group as a transnational criminal organisation"

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64353688

 

I'd say Wagner is one of the most literal criminal organisations of all time, as not only is the organisation itself criminal in pretty much all ways possible, an estimated 80 pct. of their members are literal convicts.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[chuckdyke]

MPF tanks already come knocking on the door. We may even end up with 2 men or even 1 man tanks. With the fire power and armor protection required but in a much smalle package. After all they made Leo 2s and Abrams to make money. The question is will not the tank become obsolete but will the MBT as we know it become obsolete. @Huba You won the war against the Soviets sometime around 1920 I think. It didn't get rid of them. They are just like floating p**. No matter how many times you flush they keep resurfacing.

Edited January 21, 2023 by chuckdyke

[womble]

9 hours ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Much left unspoken there. If Ukraine regains it's pre-2014 borders on the battlefield there is very little left to negotiate.

How about:

Reparations

Return of kidnapped citizens of Ukraine

Reparations

Prosecution of war criminals

Reparations

Probably some things I can't think of right now

Reparations.

No guarantee provided by Russia is worth the steam off a bear's night soil, so UKR won't be negotiating for that.

For this, Zelensky is going to need the continued, probably long-term assistance of the rest of the world in keeping the economic, political and personal sanctions screwed tight, so that the "pips squeak". Since Moscow, St Pete and VGrad are completely off the table, For Ever, sanctions will have to be sufficient.

Someone needs to teach the Russians some Game Theory, or at least the concept of the non-zero-sum game. It's the basis of whatever prosperity we can claim for the "rules based international order" having provided, however patchily distributed, and Russia looks like it should have a splendid starting position, with all its resources, if it could just get over the requirement of needing to screw some other guy to get ahead.

 

[Huba]

54 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

You won the war against the Soviets sometime around 1920 I think. It didn't get rid of them. They are just like floating p**. No matter how many times you flush they keep resurfacing

8 minutes ago, womble said:

How about:

Reparations

Return of kidnapped citizens of Ukraine

Reparations

Prosecution of war criminals

Reparations

Probably some things I can't think of right now

Reparations.

No guarantee provided by Russia is worth the steam off a bear's night soil, so UKR won't be negotiating for that.

For this, Zelensky is going to need the continued, probably long-term assistance of the rest of the world in keeping the economic, political and personal sanctions screwed tight, so that the "pips squeak". Since Moscow, St Pete and VGrad are completely off the table, For Ever, sanctions will have to be sufficient.

Someone needs to teach the Russians some Game Theory, or at least the concept of the non-zero-sum game. It's the basis of whatever prosperity we can claim for the "rules based international order" having provided, however patchily distributed, and Russia looks like it should have a splendid starting position, with all its resources, if it could just get over the requirement of needing to screw some other guy to get ahead.

 

As much as I (and probably everyone here) would like the Russians to acknowledge that they are in the wrong and make amends and reparations, I find it almost impossible to believe. Realistically I think that Russians being forced from most (hopefully all) the occupied territories, followed by armistice and normalization of status quo is the most we can realistically expect.
IMO there's one real goal that Ukraine has to achieve here: getting enough of their land back so they can renounce any further territorial claims vs. Russia, and proceed with NATO and EU integration unimpaired.
There isn't much that the collective West can do for Russia's future. Hopefully they will come around to being somewhat agreeable ( Ukraine's non-territorial war goals being probably the biggest obstacle for that), but if Putin does not personally fall I don't see how that could happen. More realistically, we are about to have a huge mild-DPRK-like state in the east for at least as long as he's alive, and possibly quite a bit longer.

[BornGinger]

4 hours ago, mosuri said:

Tangentially related, in Sweden the convicted two Iranian-born brothers who were employed by Swedish intelligence agency for spying for Russia.

If anyone has an interest in this, Scandinavia's largest forum has a thread on this subject (only 170 pages). The link below is translated with Google Translate.

https://tinyurl.com/brother-Kia-spies

The preliminary investigation files from the Swedish SÄPO and interviews with the two brothers can be found here. You'll need to translate them into English if you don't understand any of the Scandinavian languages.

Edited January 21, 2023 by BornGinger

[Butschi]

44 minutes ago, Huba said:

As much as I (and probably everyone here) would like the Russians to acknowledge that they are in the wrong and make amends and reparations, I find it almost impossible to believe. Realistically I think that Russians being forced from most (hopefully all) the occupied territories, followed by armistice and normalization of status quo is the most we can realistically expect.
IMO there's one real goal that Ukraine has to achieve here: getting enough of their land back so they can renounce any further territorial claims vs. Russia, and proceed with NATO and EU integration unimpaired.
There isn't much that the collective West can do for Russia's future. Hopefully they will come around to being somewhat agreeable ( Ukraine's non-territorial war goals being probably the biggest obstacle for that), but if Putin does not personally fall I don't see how that could happen. More realistically, we are about to have a huge mild-DPRK-like state in the east for at least as long as he's alive, and possibly quite a bit longer.

I agree. How would we enforce the payment of reparations? Versailles worked because Germany was partially occupied and demilitarized. UA will have its hands full getting their occupied territories back. Occupying enough Russian territory that payments can be enforced or just collected in resources or industrial production seems pretty unlikely. Sanctions? "Either you give us money or we will prevent you from making money."? That helps only if the sanctions are much more severe than reparations, which probably makes reparations too small. But otherwise any leader who hasn't killed off all his brain cells with wodka will take sanctions over reparations because the former can be sold as suffering induced by the evil Westerners as opposed to something that leader gives to the evil Westerners willingly (cf. Versailles and Weimarer Republik).

[Haiduk]

Krasna Hora area, SW of Soledar

Madyar tells Wagners are continuouslly sending assult groups nine men each one by one. Only his comrade spotted five such groups and three of them were eliminated completely or almost completely. On the second video he says "I offered you to show all story how we destroyed 27 "worms", but next day they have thrown next parties, so afer 50 dead "worms" I have stopped the count ("worms" - ukr. "khrobaky", branded Wagners's byname of Madyar, which already became a meme. Wagnres are digging in in trenches and holes, like warms, so from this he derived this name)  

Full video (30+ minutes) in Madyar's TG:  https://t.me/robert_magyar/364

Not only "Birds of Madyar" effectively target enemy - here is command center of special aerial recon platoon "Seneca" (called by the callsign of their commander) of 93rd mech.brigade. Inetresting that "Seneca" is semi-official unit of this brigade. All platoon personnel indeed has completely other military duties by "shtat", but in real they created own drone unit and their "services" turned out so effective, that many other units "hire" them for own tasks. Despite most of 93rd brigade has left Bakhmut sector for rest, "Seneca" platoon returned back after short pause.

One of results of "Seneca" work 

Chevron

Edited January 21, 2023 by Haiduk