How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

14 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Russians are now making a full bet on winning with time and will.

Seriously?  Is Kofman still grinding on this theme?

So "winning" in 6-12 months for Russia is:

- Likely heading towards 100k dead

- A Sweden and Finland in NATO

- A Ukraine negotiating to enter NATO and EU, and better armed than 3 out of the 5EYES nations.

- International Isolation for a generation - which is starting to look like it may include India and China

- A looming economic reset that will drop Russian standards of living dramatically

- An increasingly hostile domestic minority, likely with western support

- Possibly a few extra sq kms than they had in 2014.  They are not generating a military capable of offensive operations and cannot in a 12 month window - at least not by 21st century standards.

- At least two new regions in the Donbass that have been blasted to pulps and need a massive reconstruction bill.

- All of their proposed and real strategic and political objectives are fails.

 I am sure I missed something.

[Edit}

Oh yes a smashed military apparatus and zero power-credibility for at least 30 years.

Edited September 26, 2022 by The_Capt

[Elmar Bijlsma]

I really struggle to understand people that take this mobilization seriously.

To me it looks less like a military gearing up for large scale war and more like a cargo cult making something shaped like a military in the quasi religious hopes of getting their win in the Great Patriotic War to happen again.

[Halmbarte]

47 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Seriously?  Is Kofman still grinding on this theme?

So "winning" in 6-12 months for Russia is:

- Likely heading towards 100k dead

- A Sweden and Finland in NATO

- A Ukraine negotiating to enter NATO and EU, and better armed than 3 out of the 5EYES nations.

- International Isolation for a generation - which is starting to look like it may include India and China

- A looming economic reset that will drop Russian standards of living dramatically

- An increasingly hostile domestic minority, likely with western support

- Possibly a few extra sq kms than they had in 2014.  They are not generating a military capable of offensive operations and cannot in a 12 month window - at least not by 21st century standards.

- At least two new regions in the Donbass that have been blasted to pulps and need a massive reconstruction bill.

- All of their proposed and real strategic and political objectives are fails.

 I am sure I missed something.

[Edit}

Oh yes a smashed military apparatus and zero power-credibility for at least 30 years.

Another* 'victorious' war like this and the Russia will cease to exist as a nation state. 

H

*Or maybe from this one, the jury is still out. 

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

I really struggle to understand people that take this mobilization seriously.

To me it looks less like a military gearing up for large scale war and more like a cargo cult making something shaped like a military in the quasi religious hopes of getting their win in the Great Patriotic War to happen again.

My oft repeated statement this weekend wasn't 'worry about the mobilization'. It was 'worry about what happens when the mobilization fails'.

[Rokko]

52 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Seriously?  Is Kofman still grinding on this theme?

So "winning" in 6-12 months for Russia is:

- Likely heading towards 100k dead

- A Sweden and Finland in NATO

- A Ukraine negotiating to enter NATO and EU, and better armed than 3 out of the 5EYES nations.

- International Isolation for a generation - which is starting to look like it may include India and China

- A looming economic reset that will drop Russian standards of living dramatically

- An increasingly hostile domestic minority, likely with western support

- Possibly a few extra sq kms than they had in 2014.  They are not generating a military capable of offensive operations and cannot in a 12 month window - at least not by 21st century standards.

- At least two new regions in the Donbass that have been blasted to pulps and need a massive reconstruction bill.

- All of their proposed and real strategic and political objectives are fails.

 I am sure I missed something.

[Edit}

Oh yes a smashed military apparatus and zero power-credibility for at least 30 years.

I think "will" was meant as a noun in this sentence, as in willpower.

[The_Capt]

Just now, Rokko said:

I think "will" was meant as a noun in this sentence, as in willpower.

Ah the tyranny of the Oxford comma.  I read as "winning with time, and will win", as Kofman was in the "Russia will win, it is a matter of time" camp early on.

Russia has lost, the question is "how bad", and how much damage they can do as they come to terms with that.  Or until someone finally tosses Putin out a window.

[Taranis]

The FSB reports that 261,000 men have left Russia since the announcement of the mobilization
 

Quote

The Federal Security Service (FSB) of the Russian Federation has reported that 261,000 men have left the country after the announcement of the "partial" mobilization in the country, Novaya Gazeta Europe reported on Monday, citing a source close to the presidential administration. “Discussions about closing the border to men of military age began within the presidential administration on Wednesday, September 21, when law enforcement began reporting the number of men leaving the country. According to our source, the latest FSB report dated September 25 indicates that 261,000 men left Russia between Wednesday and Saturday evening,” the newspaper wrote on its website.

Source : Le Monde

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Judging by the name of channel, they write about N/NW of Donetsk. Locals report about intensive fire exchange there

Could be, but he does write about other frontlines as well. And the thing is I noticed DPR guys call the North a very specific area - North of Donets region. Finally, at Donetsk area it is not that bad for RU call it p*zdorez.  But at Lyman it does looks like p*zdorez for RU.

New update:

• Yesterday UKR attacked Shadryholovo. RU claimed it failed and UKR retreated but today we got report from frontline and from locals that UKR control the settlement
• I believe RU almost lost Novoselivka and control only Northen part (above the road) of Drobishevo
• UKR continue to advance to Stavky and Kolodyaz (and probably already beyond)
• No information about UKR pushes north of Ridkodub.

Now to Dvorichne

• At 24-Sept RU claimed they counterattacked and captured Tavilzhanka
• Yesterday or today UKR made a push at Hryanikivka and currently occupy position along the railroad
• I got a feeling that breakout north of Lyman was to attract and burn RU reserves and the main strikes might happen here

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

Could be, but he does write about other frontlines as well. And the thing is I noticed DPR guys call the North a very specific area - North of Donets region. Finally, at Donetsk area it is not that bad for RU call it p*zdorez.  But at Lyman it does looks like p*zdorez for RU.

New update:

• Yesterday UKR attacked Shadryholovo. RU claimed it failed and UKR retreated but today we got report from frontline and from locals that UKR control the settlement
• I believe RU almost lost Novoselivka and control only Northen part (above the road) of Drobishevo
• UKR continue to advance to Stavky and Kolodyaz (and probably already beyond)
• No information about UKR pushes north of Ridkodub.

Now to Dvorichne

• At 24-Sept RU claimed they counterattacked and captured Tavilzhanka
• Yesterday or today UKR made a push at Hryanikivka and currently occupy position along the railroad
• I got a feeling that breakout north of Lyman was to attract and burn RU reserves and the main strikes might happen here

Any info about what's going on in the northern sector? I'm trying to get up to speed with the situation, an as far as I can tell at the moment, UA are more or less bottled up in Eastern Kupyansk and Dworichne and didn't manage to push out of  their bridgeheads there?
A more genera note - I have a feeling that this hasty mobilization that causes a sudden surge in quantity, but drop in quality of RU troops, combined with additional logistical burden it creates, and Putlers alleged "no retreat" order will actually give UA an advantage, at least in the near future.

[LongLeftFlank]

32 minutes ago, Huba said:

Any info about what's going on in the northern sector? I'm trying to get up to speed with the situation, an as far as I can tell at the moment, UA are more or less bottled up in Eastern Kupyansk and Dworichne and didn't manage to push out of  their bridgeheads there?
A more genera note - I have a feeling that this hasty mobilization that causes a sudden surge in quantity, but drop in quality of RU troops, combined with additional logistical burden it creates, and Putlers alleged "no retreat" order will actually give UA an advantage, at least in the near future.

Hey you, get back to your beautiful bride!  It's ok just to lurk here for a while.

PS  I read somplace that UA are attacking tactically around Kupyansk to ensure they keep optionality to hit that 'hinge'. Will post if I find it

WarMonitor sometimes gets a little RUMINTY, but fingers crossed....

About 15km NE of Kupyansk!  So, looks like they're pushing out, if true. 

Edited September 26, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Grigb]

Mobilization in RU Military-Industrial High-Tech enterprises

Quote

There's too much of that in the last few days. Other defense industry enterprises are also reporting the same:

_______
Colleagues, I want to ask you to publish a letter on the topic of what is happening in the microelectronic industry, and I hope the military enlistment offices and the Ministry of Defense will hear and take action:

"Dear representatives of the Ministry of Defense, military enlistment offices, military Prosecutor's Office. In the microelectronics cluster in Zelenograd: Elins, Angstrom-T, Micron and others, and in other cities, employees are being mobilized and it is being planned to take hundreds of them. A number of key specialists have already been taken away. I want to clarify what microelectronics is for our country. Each specialist undergoes training up to his level for at least 10 years on very expensive installations that require the highest qualifications, with very specific knowledge. Electronics is the foundation of any modern technology. There is a shortage of specialists in the world now, they are being gathered, they are being fought for... and we are sending them to get a bullet, a knife and an 82-mm mortar shell. This human capital is worth hundreds of millions and saves lives by billions, creating technological parity for those who are at the front and who are from simple and mass professions, and somewhere [they create] an advantage on the battlefield. Come to your senses, the cycle of restoring the previous production capacity is from 10 years [and above], and taking into account such [possible] loss of educational and personnel potential – at least 20 years. You'll just bury the industry. I do not know who made this decision and who issues summonses to people working at these enterprises. But this is just sabotage or the fiercest stupidity with professional incompetence, if they cannot calculate the economy and the cost of human capital"

--
Sincerely, Kostromin Vasily Vladimirovich
General Director of the technology company LLC "FRAXIS"
Software products, IoT and instrumentation production industry.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Umm, nice photo but that's YOUR country that's burning in the background (assuming these are UA troops).  Maybe you want to make yourself useful?

@sburke

 

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

....He could be wrong though, particularly about the Caucasus. And the West has at least one client (Georgia) able to stir the pot there.

I don't think he's wrong.  The police state that Putin has assembled is vast and, by Russian standards, extremely effective when coupled with the Russian population's tradition of passivity.  Especially because those members of the security apparatus would much rather be bashing in the heads of pesky civilians than finding themselves going to the front to get shot to pieces by angry Ukrainians.  They have an incentive to do what they are told to do like never before.

The only way Russia will fall apart is if there's major revolts in quite a few large geographically contiguous areas.  The security apparatus likely can handle any one such event, but several?  It likely doesn't have the depth of ranks to deal with that scale.  Which is why they will react so violently towards the first area to show significant signs of rebellion.  This probably will dissuade others from joining in, but they won't stop thinking about it or even planning.  That means someone else will give it a shot and maybe then others will join in, or maybe they will sit aside and plan a bit more. 

Eventually another revolt will pop up that coordinated with others, resulting in more than one revolt at a time.  If the security services have been actively engaged in large scale repression they will be spread thinner and stressed.  They'll likely overreact and really get things going downhill fast.  The areas that they had previously squashed will rise up as well.

That is the most likely scenario for Russia falling apart.  Not at once, but through a series of blows that the security apparatus can't fully counter and eventually it falls apart.

Steve

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/russias-plan-to-stay-in-the-war/

• Russians would be way more willing to lose to NATO than Ukraine
  • Escalation to achieve this is possible

Wouldn't it make more sense for them to negotiate this in advance rather than getting themselves indiscriminately obliterated?  This is the kind of thing that's very negotiable and can probably be worked so that Russia loses badly to NATO but there's minimal injury all around.  Maybe we ship boxes of various NATO flags to the UAF and they learn some phrases in multiple languages, they ramp up the offensive (with lots of flags!), RU withdraws completely and both Ukraine and Russia avoid further losses.

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Taranis said:

The FSB reports that 261,000 men have left Russia since the announcement of the mobilization
 

Source : Le Monde

40K more and they'll have gotten their 300K mobilization.  

Just all pointed in the wrong direction.

[The_MonkeyKing]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Seriously?  Is Kofman still grinding on this theme?

So "winning" in 6-12 months for Russia is:

- Likely heading towards 100k dead

- A Sweden and Finland in NATO

- A Ukraine negotiating to enter NATO and EU, and better armed than 3 out of the 5EYES nations.

- International Isolation for a generation - which is starting to look like it may include India and China

- A looming economic reset that will drop Russian standards of living dramatically

- An increasingly hostile domestic minority, likely with western support

- Possibly a few extra sq kms than they had in 2014.  They are not generating a military capable of offensive operations and cannot in a 12 month window - at least not by 21st century standards.

- At least two new regions in the Donbass that have been blasted to pulps and need a massive reconstruction bill.

- All of their proposed and real strategic and political objectives are fails.

 I am sure I missed something.

[Edit}

Oh yes a smashed military apparatus and zero power-credibility for at least 30 years.

He was referring this as from the Kremlins perspective.

I think it is undeniable they are now banking on the hope of winning "the battle of wills" with the west.

How realistic this hope is another subject.

[Grigb]

10 minutes ago, Huba said:

Any info about what's going on in the northern sector? I'm trying to get up to speed with the situation, an as far as I can tell at the moment, UA are more or less bottled up in Eastern Kupyansk and Dworichne and didn't manage to push out of  their bridgeheads there?

Very little credible info about Kypuanks-Dvorichne. It does look they were bottled up there. But I do not belive it was caused by RU defenses. RU is very shy about this area. It indicates either they are weak there or something is wrong. That's what Maskovets hinted at some time ago as well.

So, I belive UKR deliberately slowed at Kypuanks-Dvorichne. Could be logistical issues. Could be intel preparations - they are vulnerable there to counter-push from RU territory. Or as I said they wanted Ivan to burn reserves at Lyman first. 

I suspect 20th CAA reserved died either yesterday or today. So, UKR are activating Dvorichne group now. And we can only wait.  

 

10 minutes ago, Huba said:

A more genera note - I have a feeling that this hasty mobilization that causes a sudden surge in quantity, but drop in quality of RU troops, combined with additional logistical burden it creates, and Putlers alleged "no retreat" order will actually give UA an advantage, at least in the near future.

Add here the social and economic pressure it creates, and you get the reason Kremlin tried to avoid it all these months. 

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Yes, agreed. He was warned. About conventionally invading a non-NATO country. However those warnings were about sanctions and sending modern *defensive* weapons to Ukraine. Light years away from warning about “catastrophic” consequences that can in no way be assumed not just by Putin, but by his military and civilian leadership that this time they would not face the full force of the military arrayed against Russia. And I imagine the private and back channel communications we know have taken place to have been much less diplomatic.  And couched in the context of crossing the one single red line that *all * the powers that be have insisted not be crossed. 
 

Here in the cheap seats, we cannot know the final decision policy of Washington or the Allies. But I would bet on general agreement that the punishment for using a nuclear weapon in anger today must be so clearly “catastrophic” for the attacker that other nations watching with interest have zero doubt about just how very very bad an idea that would be. In fact, one could imagine the core message to Russia:being just that: We are so sorry. This isn’t a civilized, gentlemanly proportional response situation. Understand, this is nothing personal. It’s just not good for business. Which you won’t be in any longer. Because this will not stand. 
 

Here in the cheap seats, I realize this is just an opinion, one without the weight and responsibility that weigh on those who must make such a monumental decision. 

Thanks for the thoughts.  I am sure the warnings to Putin were pretty starkly phrased, accompanied by a "remember the last time when you thought the West was a bunch of dysfunctional knobs?  How'd that turn out for you?"

It really comes down to one thing:

Is there a set of circumstances where Putin might believe that his only chance of personal survival is using a tac nuke?

If there is such a scenario in his head, then we're screwed if that scenario happens and his underlings don't object.  All we in the West can do is ensure the odds of him coming to such a conclusion is minimized.  I think we're doing that.  However, as the old saying goes, "you can't fix stupid".

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Seriously?  Is Kofman still grinding on this theme?

So "winning" in 6-12 months for Russia is:

- Likely heading towards 100k dead

- A Sweden and Finland in NATO

- A Ukraine negotiating to enter NATO and EU, and better armed than 3 out of the 5EYES nations.

- International Isolation for a generation - which is starting to look like it may include India and China

- A looming economic reset that will drop Russian standards of living dramatically

- An increasingly hostile domestic minority, likely with western support

- Possibly a few extra sq kms than they had in 2014.  They are not generating a military capable of offensive operations and cannot in a 12 month window - at least not by 21st century standards.

- At least two new regions in the Donbass that have been blasted to pulps and need a massive reconstruction bill.

- All of their proposed and real strategic and political objectives are fails.

 I am sure I missed something.

[Edit}

Oh yes a smashed military apparatus and zero power-credibility for at least 30 years.

What's the alternative for Putin? There's no way back for him now.

If he decided to stop the war, apologise profusely to everybody, and pay huge sums in reparations, he might get rid of the sanctions, or at least some of them. But could he survive that politically? Licking the boot of the nefarious and morally corrupt West after all his strong-man bluster?

He can't win. But he still has a slim chance of not losing.

[Tenses]

Well I certainly haven't taken much activity in the forums but I follow this topic from the start and consider it the best info out there thanks to it's "background diversity" and outstanding military knowledge of your's guys.

Nevertheless I wanted to throw my two cents into more heated recent discussion. What I consider will happen if Russia is going to go nuclear depends on it's exact usage and this is confirmed by a couple of Western decision makers out there, that exact response "depends". I would bet on three scenarios in this regard:

1) Russia uses tactical warhead on some military gathering to stop offensive or get upper hand elsewhere. West(mainly US to be honest) responds with cruise missile/air force action on Ukriane territory, effectively deleting any stronger Russian presence there. This would be in line of previous actions, which were meant to even out odds or place Ukraine at slight adventage in comparison to Russia.

2) Russia uses strategic warhead on some big city(not really an option IMHO). Response is the same as before but on the entire Russian territory. Main targets are all nuclear capable military vehicles/structures. This might look like escalation but really, if you see a crazy guy killig a child just before your own eyes you don't think like "hey it's not my child, I don't even know it's parents", but instead you just beat the s**t out of him no matter what. This is what people do with crazy elements to keep the rest of society reasonably healthy.

3) Russia attacks nuclear any NATO member. Response to this is a mix of 2) with addition of own nuclear wherever necessary.

I understand that even considering this kind of events is very disturbing but we must admit that we were never that close to this situation. Not even Cuban crisis was that close. Preventing all of this is very easy - we need to be crystal clear in commitment to support Ukraine with whatever force is necessary. All the power Russia has is from "fear terror" and as long as it has any chance that it can do s**t without serious repercussions, it will not stop. 

Russia understands strenght. Period.

[The_MonkeyKing]

23 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Wouldn't it make more sense for them to negotiate this in advance rather than getting themselves indiscriminately obliterated?  This is the kind of thing that's very negotiable and can probably be worked so that Russia loses badly to NATO but there's minimal injury all around.  Maybe we ship boxes of various NATO flags to the UAF and they learn some phrases in multiple languages, they ramp up the offensive (with lots of flags!), RU withdraws completely and both Ukraine and Russia avoid further losses.

Misquoted by accident "the escalate to achieve this" part. It was more in the lines of Rus leadership really believing that they are losing, but to NATO in form of assistance Ukraine is getting.

[Kinophile]

Wellity wellity Wellity, now. 

@Haiduk got info? 

 

[Grigb]

Interesting opinion on the situation in Dagestan

Quote

View on mobilization from the mountains 

Mobilization is taking place rapidly in Russia, even the events at the front have receded into the background. The question I want to find an answer to is whether all these spontaneous rallies can turn into an organized civil protest? And - what is needed for this.

Yesterday, military enlistment offices were burning all over the country. They continue to burn today - in the morning, the military enlistment office, along with the arsonist's Lada, burned down in Uryupinsk. Yesterday Makhachkala fought with the police, about 150 people were detained, they need legal assistance and our support.

Kumyks blocked the highways in Andy and Babayurt, two dozen "Baksan women " they managed to get to the square in Nalchik. Today, a new rally has been scheduled in Nalchik at 15 o'clock, already at the government house.

Everyone else is sending children away from recruiting stations for the time being, but outwardly they support the authorities. We are plunging back into Soviet doublethink, but not for long.

Now about the organization. The protests in Makhachkala were organized by the administrator of the Dagestan Morning channel. I won't expose him here, but he is a talented, energetic, and political-tech-savvy Avar who lives in Islam. Unfortunately, there is no real political organization behind him in the Caucasus. In addition, the "Morning of Dagestan" is associated with the "Morning of February", the founder of which has greatly discredited himself. They already came to the administrator of another channel (who took an active part in the coordination of rallies "Basement of Dagestan") with search warrant.

Political or civil consolidation is difficult in Dagestan today. Interethnic and interfaith relations interfere. But two more problems are in the way – each of the opinion leaders, such as Abdula Kosteksky, the leaders of the Gimri Jamaat or Abu Umar Sasitli, each build their own Emirate. That's one thing. Secondly, they themselves are not ready to get into a fight right now for objective and subjective reasons. But they don't want to support anyone else either.

Authorities comes to the rescue, as always. "Either you will force them (citizens) to go to war, or you will go there yourself," they tell the police. The regime itself draws the contours of the civil conflict – either security forces, or we will stay alive. So now it's just a matter of time.

With a significantly smaller number of active protesters in Kabardino-Balkaria, there are some gains. Baksan women received not only the tacit support of the majority, but of the population, - according to the Mountaineer [author], a unification conference of Circassians from all over the world for the sake of Free Circassia was held yesterday. Previously, Circassians united in the MCHA to be friends with Russia, and now – to save their people from Putin.

 

[danfrodo]

Good look at level of training of US infantry vs the fodder-mob RU mobilization infantry.  Compare half a year of training to as little as zero.  Some portion of the UKR army was well behind the lines for ~3+ months getting trained and was unleashed on thinly held RU front.  No wonder RU folded then and seems to still not be able to stop these relatively well trained troops.

LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN RISK

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/26/2125288/-Ukraine-update-As-Russia-mobilizes-here-s-what-a-well-trained-army-looks-like

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Rokko said:

I think "will" was meant as a noun in this sentence, as in willpower.

Yeah, definitely what was meant.  Looking at the other thoughts from Kofman they are the same as we see here.  So this time I think we should give Kofman a break

Steve