How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

It seems Commissar is becoming a very dangerous job

 

there is a video of the events

[Zeleban]

 

Arson of the military enlistment office in Uryupinsk. This time, the arsonist turned out to be more cunning and set fire to the car to intensify the fire.

[Zeleban]

Someone asked if the AAA Geprdas are participating in the fighting on the front lines. Here is the video proof.

Apparently, they cover the dead zones of the Osa air defense system. The Osa has a 1.5 km dead zone in which it cannot hit targets. The Osa hits long range targets while the Geprdas takes over close range coverage.

Edited September 26, 2022 by Zeleban

[Zeleban]

Joke about militant sentiment in Russia

[kraze]

3 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Joke about militant sentiment in Russia

I like the meltdown in russkie TG where one of them was raging about how Georgia should be grateful russians are now driving across the border in cars and not in tanks like it was in 2008.

And another one blamed Ukraine for having to stand 17 hrs in line to cross the border and wished all Ukrainians to be murdered for daring to resist and causing his sorry *** to have to run.

Edited September 26, 2022 by kraze

[Grigb]

RU reports intense arty battle at North (Lyman-Kupansk-Svatove) right now. Possibly new UKR push

Quote

North.
heavy shelling.
The intensity is high.
The f*ckup is happening.

 

[Zeleban]

5 minutes ago, kraze said:

I like the meltdown in russkie TG where one of them was raging about how Georgia should be grateful russians are now driving across the border in cars and not in tanks like it was in 2008.

 

Certainly, the actions of some countries to provide asylum for Russians have a negative effect. The Russian diaspora in Western countries will increase, they will be able to influence the domestic and foreign policies of these countries

[Grigb]

It looks like RU internal panic is transforming to public psychosis.

Quote

As a result of the shooting at the school, six people were killed. Three of them are children.. There are wounded.

Upd: the criminal shot himself.

Upd2: the death toll has increased to ten people, the injured to twenty!!!

Obviously, they blame heinous westerners for incitement of school shooting - it does not matter what you do or do not; you are heinous westerners (and I am vile traitor) you will get blame for every RU internal problem. Anyone calling for discussion of RU grievances against the West is an insufferable fool who has no idea about RU.

[kraze]

18 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

Certainly, the actions of some countries to provide asylum for Russians have a negative effect. The Russian diaspora in Western countries will increase, they will be able to influence the domestic and foreign policies of these countries

Ukrainian refugees will return home sooner or later, because they are refugees, russians are not. And knowing russians - "influencing" will be the best case scenario. Diversions or terrorist acts or even open insurgency are not unlikely once the number of russians reaches a critical enough amount. It's a slow ticking bomb, just ask... ugh... Moldova, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and so on.

[Grigb]

Reality of RU Mobilization, day 4

Quote

For the fourth day, the mobilized men are wondaring around the Sergievsky training ground, like unwanted [men]. There is no training, no one really understands anything, no one has seen officers of the battalion commander's level and above at all.

However, the attempt to take away mobilized personal stuff failed before it really began - mature men simply sent the particularly zealous military [officers] to **** off, and at that point everyone calmed down.

The military confidentially informed that people who can should take care of acquisition of personal armor, because "there is nothing [at storage] and nothing will be delivered." Those who are richer rushed to buy armor.

There is no combat training. Only two former arty gunners managed to get a bussol [RU arty simplified theodolite] for themselves and are training to work with it. The phones were not taken away.

Even if the phones are taken away, I will still know what is happening there, and within the limits of what is allowed, I will inform the public about the situation in our workers' and peasants' [army].

For the balance of reporting, I should note that there is hidden and low level but still present volunteer mobilization. So, volunteers and LDPR units are getting additional manpower of those who tries to avoid official mobilization by voluntarily mobilizing themselves in to trusted units directly. It unlikely to increase overall manpower level of the units but it will strengthen hardcore cadre. 

 

[Grigb]

Finally useful Girkin post

Quote

Briefly on the situation at the front:

Fierce fighting continues in the area of the Lyman. The enemy is trying to use its advantage in manpower, since the terrain in the city area is wooded and rugged, with a relatively undeveloped road network, which, on the one hand, does not allow large forces of armored vehicles to be deployed off the roads, but on the other hand, helps the covert concentration [of troops] and preparation for the offensive of infantry units. So far, the enemy has not been able to surround the Lyman, but he almost daily has tactical advances in its vicinity.

On the Donetsk front, local (in my opinion, completely incomprehensible) attacks by units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, PMCs and LDNR on fortified enemy positions continue. The successes are purely tactical, not worth the losses incurred.

Zaporozhye Front - the lull and concentration of troops continues. The majority of respondents expect that the main offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will take place in this area.

On the Kherson front - over the past 3 days - there has been a significant weakening of enemy activity. A non-intensive exchange of artillery and missile strikes continues.

On the Belgorod Front, [there are] artillery skirmishes and raids of the AFU DRG.

 

[Grigb]

12 hours ago, danfrodo said:

GrigB once again bringing the good stuff. 

What's fascinating to me is that this pace, though much slower than the drive to Kupyansk, is still faster by an order of magnitude or more than anything we saw all summer.  So RU knows exactly where the attack is and still can't stop it?  That says a lot about these two armies right now.

Pray for sunshine to whatever god or gods you think might help.  Looks like rain every day for the next week, though most days look to be light rain or just showers. 

It is very puzzling actually. RU knew it was coming. They had both time and units to strengthen it. But it looks like RU decided to strengthen Zaporozhye direction. There are two theories:

1. RU is afraid of UKR offensive in Zaporozheye direction above all. It does not make any sense but possibly Putin interference is the cause. 
2. RU is planning to make its own offensive in Zaporozheye direction. It does not make any sense either - the window of opportunity is closing right now due to imminent mud season.

I am afraid we do not have enough cocaine and women with low social responsibilities to understand RU High Command  plans.

[Grigb]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Holy crap!  Where did you get this from, Grigb?  Looks like someone took a bunch of Nazi propaganda reporting form the front, swapped out "Khokhols" for "Ivans" ad Russian unit designations for German ones.

It is directly from RU journalist/propagandist Herman Kulikovsky who is responsible for reporting from Kharkive direction. If you wash, shave and cut hair of RU Nats you will see familiar face of German Nazi but with nuclear balalayka.  

 

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Sooooo... it seems that at least some of Russia's mix-bag forces are attempting to go out in a blaze of glory?  Interesting to see how long that attitude lasts front wide.

Steve

There are UKR rumors that they are already running. Maybe the brave ones are already dead.

[Grigb]

9 hours ago, cyrano01 said:

On which score, I wonder if the author realises just which army the original thin red line ('thin red streak tipped with a line of steel,' says Mr Pedant) was shooting at?

Yes, most likely he knows. It is fairly well known episode. But like with many RU history episodes some inconvenient parts are missing. So, it is like this:

1. RU attacks
2. Thin red streak tipped with a line of steel
3. Some shooting
4. Battle has ended 

[Grigb]

9 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Well, there is another one line from the North but fortunately it is less convenient and it is literally at UKR border.

 

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, Combatintman said:

Nine months of my life on operations in the role, two years of my life in a PSYOPs unit and three months of my life on courses suggest otherwise ...

Ah we live in a magical time when none of that matters - the end of expertise.  All you need is an internet connection and voila, anyone can be an expert on the employment of psychological operations.  And then you can declare that expertise to the world and pass sage definitive judgements - hell, you can start a YouTube channel or podcast if you like.

Truly an Age of Ignorance in an ocean of free information.

[Ultradave]

7 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Yes, agreed. He was warned. About conventionally invading a non-NATO country. However those warnings were about sanctions and sending modern *defensive* weapons to Ukraine. Light years away from warning about “catastrophic” consequences that can in no way be assumed not just by Putin, but by his military and civilian leadership that this time they would not face the full force of the military arrayed against Russia. And I imagine the private and back channel communications we know have taken place to have been much less diplomatic.

Russia's rhetoric about this has been dangerous. The last few days there were several statements, one by Lavrov, that it was the "West" making threats about using nuclear weapons against Russia that has forced them to make statements about "responding" with nuclear weapons. Dangerous because they are setting up a possible excuse. [edit] -- No such threats of first use have been made by anyone other than Russia

Hopefully though, their nuclear command and control would prevent it. It's not the one man authorization that the US has.

One thing that has always stood out to me is the surprise that the Reagan administration had after the Able Archer We Almost Blew Up The World miscalculation had. Weinberger stated that they were shocked to find out that the Soviets seriously thought we would make a first strike from maneuvers (it's what *their* strategy was) And more importantly, that they are paranoid about the US using nuclear weapons because of the fact we are the only country to have actually used them, and therefore have less hesitancy in using them again. I don't think that's true but it was how the Soviets felt then, which is what really counts. I don't know how that attitude has lasted to the present but it's worth keeping in mind.

Hopefully saner heads will prevail.

Dave

Edited September 26, 2022 by Ultradave

[Zeleban]

 

[Zeleban]

A captured tanker from the 12th Tank Regiment of the 4th Guards Tank Division. Before being sent to Ukraine, he was transferred to the tank troops from the strategic missile forces.

It seems that Russia's most feared troops are also experiencing personnel problems. The most combat-ready are transferred to tankers and motorized riflemen

[Zeleban]

 

[Peregrine]

On 9/23/2022 at 9:57 AM, sburke said:

So you won't be applying for that passport?  there is a $25 cancellation fee... payable in beer.

Can you post your GPS co-ordinates for the beer delivery. Or the HIMARS. Depending how you behave on the international stage.

[Zeleban]

both Russian and Ukrainian telegram channels confirm the capture of Shandrigolovo by the Armed Forces of Ukraine

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/russias-plan-to-stay-in-the-war/

• Ukraine positioning in Harkiv. Maybe for winter maybe for a new attack
• Risk of nuclear use the highest since 1983.
  • Still low likelihood but with such huge event small percentage becomes unacceptable
  • Russian nuclear doctrine is not relevant here as a predictor
• Russians are watering down any deterrence the Crimea might have had in the past by equating this years conquests to it.
• Mobilization practically puts Russia in a "war time state".
• "I don't believe the Russian number at all" (the 300 000 number). Looks to be as total mobilization as they can manage. Both industry and manpower.
• It is a phased general mobilization.
• Mobilization is going to rollout for the next year in many phases.
• Now strategy to get manpower fast to the front. Up to 100 000 right away.
  • Stop-loss policies are significant part of mobilization. All present and past professionals are included.
  • Hastily send reinforcements to worn out units. "on the job training".
  • Hastily formed "LNR and DPR type" light infantry formations coming to "plug the holes".
  • New formations coming in 3-4 months to "hopefully" do rotations on the line.
• They are afraid of significant Ukrainians successes and are in a hurry with the mobilization.
• Mobilization solves the issue of quantity, not quality. Overall quality of the force is going to significantly lower.
• The outcome of the mobilization is "worrying" to Kofman. We have not seen anything like this in the resent past and the manpower being mobilized seems to be very significant. Long term reaction of the homefront remains unknown. 
• Big question is what Russian force looks like after winter.
• Mobilization might very significantly extent the war. If nothing drastic doesn't happens soon.
• Russian protest are insignificant and localized. What about when successive waves of mobilization happen?
• Stalin had a mobilization regime, Putin has a non-mobilization regime. (talking about general participation of the population)
• There always was two point of no return, mobilization and annexation. Now the first happened and the second one is imminently expended.
  • Russia is now coupling itself to the outcome of this conflict. Possible any future regimes as well.
• International support horizon will now move to next year and the year after that. Sustainment is important. 
• Russians are now making a full bet on winning with time and will.
• Russians would be way more willing to lose to NATO than Ukraine. Russian leadership might indeed see itself losing to NATO inform of assistance Ukraine is getting.

Edited September 26, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[Haiduk]

Russians this night have struck with Shahed-136 some ammunition storage near Odesa. Four drones were launched, but only one was shot down. All village was evacuated.

On otehr hand UKR HIMARSed Russian Shahed/Mohajer base in Chulakivka village, Kherson oblast, were personnel and Iranian instructors as if were deployed. Though, main place of drones launching reportedly still Cremean Tarkhankut cape.

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

RU reports intense arty battle at North (Lyman-Kupansk-Svatove) right now. Possibly new UKR push

 

Judging by the name of channel, they write about N/NW of Donetsk. Locals report about intensive fire exchange there