How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

If the situation on the front was that dire, then it would partially explain the deployment of mobilized as cannon fodder. Did Russia miss the deployment of ZSU units or did Russia miss that it's units in the Izyum region are woefully defended?

 

[Grigb]

11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

It's just RUMINT, but...

UKR troops as if entered to villages Iziumske and Olhivka. This is shows likely this groupling can have a task not to attack north on Borova - Svatove road, but to move east toward Makiivka village, laying on crossroads Svatove - Zarichne - Lyman and Borova - Starobilsk. Further UKR troops can advance toward Ploshchanka village to intercept the road Svatove - Kreminna.

Likely this groupling have a task to cut off Russians on line - Drobysheve - Lyman - Yampli, when other grouping, which reportedly has begun advance from Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi - Petropavlivka toward Svatiove (or Borova?) from NW.

Allegedly, UKR troops in this time again entered to SW part of Drobysheve and Lyman outskirts and fight with enemy troops. 

Russians move reinforcements there - this is reportage of DPR TV from Torske village near Zarichne, you can see combimed unit, which moves to Lyman - mainly trucks with markings of 3rd Army Corps (circle in triangle), tank with Z and truck with Z in square.

 

Indeed, it seems UKR grouping advancing North turned toward Makiivka.

We have several RU claims to work with

• As @Haiduk said it looks like one of UKR groups turned toward Makiivka
• UKR group in Ridkodub seems to counter attacked and recaptured Nove settlement
• Another UKR group (RU claim it is the same one but i do not believe them) is attacking south. RU claim it is going toward Lyman rear
• There is another unknown UKR group advancing North close to Maliivka and Vyshne Solone (to Northwest from Ridkodub)

I skipped actions at Novoselivka-Drobishevo-Lyman-Yampil line as there are no significant changes there.

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

RU comment regarding UKR forces at Belohorivka (near Lisichansk)

 

Hasn't Ukraine received some CB radars from the US and one from Germany (came with the PzHs) recently? Maybe they are now putting them to good use.

[Grigb]

6 minutes ago, poesel said:

Hasn't Ukraine received some CB radars from the US and one from Germany (came with the PzHs) recently? Maybe they are now putting them to good use.

Definitely one radar arrived from Germany recently. Not sure about US though.

[CHEqTRO]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

"Losing" both of them and using it as an excuse for a climb own would be the smartest thing they have done since Feb 23. No one would be more surprised than the cretins currently rigging the vote. I could see this as the one thing that might get them a meaningful change in the narrative, If they were willing to settle for the parts of the Donbas they currently hold. I also don't think they are that smart. Not unless their was something special in Putin's tea last night, and they are just holding off on the announcement.

Eh, the theory has its problems. Apart from what I wrote, actually losing the referendum would undermine one of the main points of Russian propaganda, that being that the Russian speaking population is under opression by the nazis at Kyiv and they, obviously, would want to reunite with their kind. Thats why it would only be acceptable for their propaganda if instead of a loss, the no to annexation came about because of lack of votes. That is still a possibility, however, going from 48 to 50% in participation is such a slim diference that i would be surprised if It is no covered by tuesday.

One way I thought they could solve the issue of the east side of Kherson region is if they go with a "by locality" approach. That is, well, would you look at that, the western parts of Kherson didnt accumulate enough participation, but the eastern parts did, so we will annex the rest and not the western bank. They abandon their ****ty undersupplied positions on Kherson in order to properly defend " russian territory" ,and so they have their excuse.

Finally the problem with trying to fully descalate, is that this would still be a strategic defeat for Russia, in both cases either if they try to do a territory swap between Kherson/Zaphorizie and the Donbass, ir if the decide to anchor themselves to their current borders. Thats why i think further escalation is more likely. But who knows, maybe they think that they can survive this defeat. I personally doubt It.

1 hour ago, pavel.k said:

It came to my mind too that Putler can use referendums to retreat with "honor". But when mobilization was declared i refused this option.

Well, It falls inside the thought of escalation in order to achieve descalation. Maybe the reason why they are performing such a cluster**** of mobilization is because they dont expect to use it on the long run. Or It could be a mixture of desesperation/ russian disregard to proper procedure, Who knows (The CIA, probably xD)

Edited September 25, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

 

 

Ya know, if I were a TV personality and a genocidal dictatorship's propaganda outlet referred to me as "of course" in support of their point of view, I'd retire that day.  After all, I'd have millions in the bank so it isn't like I have to be a mouthpiece for a murderous state just to feed my family.

Further thoughts on this pro-Putin, anti-American windbag withheld so I don't violate my own Forum's rules

Steve

[Offshoot]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

The point of this is you could sit 50% of the Russian population down, show them reality, show them what it is going to lead to, and they'd just collectively shrug their shoulders.  "Yup, that looks pretty bad for sure.  However, what do you expect us to do about it?  Risk our lives?  We'd rather let things run their course and someone new tell us what to do and when to do it.  Now bugger off and leave us be".

A chink in the armor of the middle might be the nuclear threat. This thread has talked a lot about Putin's nuclear threats and how the west perceives them, but not about how Russians perceive them. A journalist born in Soviet Ukraine who has written a couple of books on Russian propaganda suggests Putin's threats could backfire. He does acknowledge the passivity of the Russian middle, but perhaps this angle could be exploited by psyops to push them to act, and without even having to lie necessarily (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/25/nuclear-threat-might-change-the-mood-in-russia-itself-stoking-widespread-fear)

"Putin’s threat of nuclear war may backfire, too. It’s meant to intimidate the west and Ukraine but it can upset his own people more. If there’s one thing Russians fear more than Putin, it’s nuclear war – and now he’s the one bringing it closer. For both the elite and the “ordinary” Russians who I’ve spoken to recently, the calculation is about whether the risk of going against Putin is bigger than the risk of sticking with him. So far, rebelling has seemed the bigger risk; does the nuclear topic change that? Much depends on how the international community reacts. We need to show that the closer he gets to a nuclear threat, the more devastating the reaction will be: military, economic and diplomatic. He will even lose China."

[Battlefront.com]

25 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Indeed, it seems UKR grouping advancing North turned toward Makiivka.

We have several RU claims to work with

• As @Haiduk said it looks like one of UKR groups turned toward Makiivka
• UKR group in Ridkodub seems to counter attacked and recaptured Nove settlement
• Another UKR group (RU claim it is the same one but i do not believe them) is attacking south. RU claim it is going toward Lyman rear
• There is another unknown UKR group advancing North close to Maliivka and Vyshne Solone (to Northwest from Ridkodub)

I skipped actions at Novoselivka-Drobishevo-Lyman-Yampil line as there are no significant changes there.

If the RUMINT is accurate, it looks like Ukraine has four moves going on north of Siverskyi Donets and east of the Oskil:

• Group organizing in Kupyansk tasked with following the direct road to Svatove
• Current push towards Maliivka
• Push south from to get into the rear of Lyman via Nove and fully isolate it
• Constrict Lyman from west and south

Looks pretty sensible for near term objectives.  Only question is if weather puts an end to meaningful advances.  From what I'm seeing it is already slowing things down.

As for reinforcements, looks like Russia is moving 3rd Army Corps units to resist further eastward moves.  That plus the weather might make the going pretty slow.

What does Russia do about Lyman?  It looks to be pretty well isolated already and Ukraine is making progress against the defenders.  Others have speculated that Russian (well, LPR for the most part, right?) forces will retreat from there before they are completely cut off.  That seems likely as so far Russians have shown no interest in fighting to the death.  I don't think the higher up orders that there shall be no retreat are going to be obeyed.

Steve

[Grigb]

As it was said Dagestan is flaring up. Sample messages from what seems to be coordination channel:

Morning announcement.

Quote

We are asked why we do not gather all in one place? I answer: now it is important for us to teach people to go out together and in an organized manner, and at this stage security is paramaunt. We have already announced that first we are going to all Gamzatov Avenue, then we will start filling Yaragsky and so on, and with such a strategy, the musars [cops] will not have enough human resources to resist us and the people will be inspired and see that you can fight with this system and even defend your rights! The main and necessary condition in the current reality is to pull out [to streets] the whole city!

Inshaallah!

Be patient.

During day 

Quote

7). You must understand that if we show the whole of Russia how to act and defend the right to life of your children, then tomorrow the WHOLE of RUSSIA will repeat our scenario! Which, oddly enough, can correct terrible situation it is in thanks to our example!

Rumor

Quote

There are also the messages:
"In Tatarstan, audio [clips] spread through the Watsaps, they say [RU] stopped [in Tatarstan] enlisting in the army and even send buses back home, they say.
They even invented fake reason - they say they will take more from Russia [itself].
The real reason is that the authorities were afraid of the demonstrations in Dagestan and the danger of national regions!
So the government has already ****ed up and understands that the people will win in Dagestan"

An another one

Quote

We are gathering not to disperse in a few hours - we are going to make a Maidan - pitch tents and gather the whole of Dagestan for this Maidan - until the mobilization for the CAUCASUS is completely canceled!!!!

Until this dog's tail Putin personally announces it on TV!!! Personally!!!

Not a step back!!!

We are going out to all the cities!!!

We have been silent for too long and that is why we ourselves brought the matter to the disposal of our children by the authorities.

It's time to put everything in its place with the help of Allah!

 

[dan/california]

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ya know, if I were a TV personality and a genocidal dictatorship's propaganda outlet referred to me as "of course" in support of their point of view, I'd retire that day.  After all, I'd have millions in the bank so it isn't like I have to be a mouthpiece for a murderous state just to feed my family.

Further thoughts on this pro-Putin, anti-American windbag withheld so I don't violate my own Forum's rules

Steve

Not sure retirement is an option for FSB agents just now. It seems to result in long walks off of short window ledges.

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

A chink in the armor of the middle might be the nuclear threat. This thread has talked a lot about Putin's nuclear threats and how the west perceives them, but not about how Russians perceive them. A journalist born in Soviet Ukraine who has written a couple of books on Russian propaganda suggests Putin's threats could backfire. He does acknowledge the passivity of the Russian middle, but perhaps this angle could be exploited by psyops to push them to act, and without even having to lie necessarily (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/25/nuclear-threat-might-change-the-mood-in-russia-itself-stoking-widespread-fear)

"Putin’s threat of nuclear war may backfire, too. It’s meant to intimidate the west and Ukraine but it can upset his own people more. If there’s one thing Russians fear more than Putin, it’s nuclear war – and now he’s the one bringing it closer. For both the elite and the “ordinary” Russians who I’ve spoken to recently, the calculation is about whether the risk of going against Putin is bigger than the risk of sticking with him. So far, rebelling has seemed the bigger risk; does the nuclear topic change that? Much depends on how the international community reacts. We need to show that the closer he gets to a nuclear threat, the more devastating the reaction will be: military, economic and diplomatic. He will even lose China."

Yes, the Russian middle just wants to be left alone and I don't think many of them think that their lives will be the same if Putin uses a nuke.  But is the threat enough to get them to proactively do something about Putin before Putin pushes the button, or only afterwards?

If Putin does a tactical nuke strike somewhere in Ukraine the West should give Russia (not Putin, RUSSIA) a deadline of something like 1-2 weeks to get rid of Putin and surrender or face full scale conventional strikes.  Make it clear that the minute the deadline passes there won't be a Russian ship still floating, no aircraft in the air, no air defenses, and ground forces in Ukraine carpet bombed.  After the message is out, see what happens.  If nothing meaningful happens, then execute the retaliatory strikes without any second thoughts.

This strategy avoids an instant escalation while all of Russia's nuclear forces are still under Putin's control.  See if that control can be disrupted because the most important thing is to not have another nuke used.  The West needs to try hard to make sure that doesn't happen.  For domestic political reasons if nothing else.

Steve

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

If the RUMINT is accurate, it looks like Ukraine has four moves going on north of Siverskyi Donets and east of the Oskil:

• Group organizing in Kupyansk tasked with following the direct road to Svatove
• Current push towards Maliivka
• Push south from to get into the rear of Lyman via Nove and fully isolate it
• Constrict Lyman from west and south

Looks pretty sensible for near term objectives.  Only question is if weather puts an end to meaningful advances.  From what I'm seeing it is already slowing things down.

As for reinforcements, looks like Russia is moving 3rd Army Corps units to resist further eastward moves.  That plus the weather might make the going pretty slow.

What does Russia do about Lyman?  It looks to be pretty well isolated already and Ukraine is making progress against the defenders.  Others have speculated that Russian (well, LPR for the most part, right?) forces will retreat from there before they are completely cut off.  That seems likely as so far Russians have shown no interest in fighting to the death.  I don't think the higher up orders that there shall be no retreat are going to be obeyed.

Steve

Hopefully the LPR guys will have an attack of sense and decide to spend the winter in a nice warm POW camp instead of a freezing trench with pieces of their friends.

Edit: it sounds like the weather is getting bad enough to concentrate peoples thinking.

11 minutes ago, Grigb said:

As it was said Dagestan is flaring up. Sample messages from what seems to be coordination channel:

Morning announcement.

During day 

Rumor

An another one

 

If that is a psyop it is a good one.

Edited September 25, 2022 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Grigb said:

As it was said Dagestan is flaring up.

Hmmm... and who here said that we should be looking to the Caucuses to see if Russia is at risk of cracking up?  I know I did   And where was the other place to look?  Oh yes, central Asian territories.

So we have Dagestan (Caucuses) and possibly Tatarstan (central Asia) showing signs of defiance of Kremlin control.  And what is Kadyrov doing?  Looks like he's "keeping his powder dry" for the moment.  I doubt he'll move against anybody as it won't play well to his domestic audience and it potentially weakens his armed forces, which he he needs if things get worse.

Too soon to say if the lit match has landed close enough to the gunpowder stockpile, but I don't think it will be long before we know for sure.

Steve

[danfrodo]

deleted

Edited September 25, 2022 by danfrodo
deleted

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Grigb said:

But all is not lost. I like most of Steve suggestions above - limited and targeted PsyOps aimed at driving wedge where cracks already exist will work regardless of other shortcomings. For example, Western articles that Ultranationalists not liberals are threat to Putin got RU Nats very worried. Simple western media articles managed to get under RU Nat skins. Imagine what a persistent campaign would do. 

Thanks for the feedback.

Yeah, I think trying to get the middle agitated by Western PSYOPS isn't a good use of resources.  Your four stated reasons makes it pretty clear what such an operation would be going up against.  But getting the wingnuts to fight amongst themselves and to cause the middle to be confused about what is going on... that's totally doable.

The other operation I didn't mention is a classic for brutal dictatorships -> play on their paranoia over traitors in their midst.  There's a rumor that Lavrov is looking for a place to hide.  I don't know if it's true or not, but this is the sort of thing I'd like to get in front of Putin's eyes.  How about making the FSB think the GRU is making some sort of move, while at the same time convincing the GRU that FSB is going to strike first?  That sort of thing works very well in a crisis situation where paranoia is cranked up and things are getting worse by the day.

Always better to have your enemy shooting each other than you shooting them.

Steve

[cyrano01]

2 hours ago, Pablius said:

 

MACPUTLER: Bring me no more reports; let them fly all:    Till Ukranian wood remove to the Russian border,   I cannot taint with fear.   Sorry, back to lurking .

 

Careful, if the Russians read this we will be getting an anouncement from Moscow that the Ukrainian advance is an evil British plot involving NATO biological weapos and the notorious mercenary, special forces leaders Siward, Malcolm and Macduff.

[cesmonkey]

You can find some more info on the developments in Dagestan from this local newspaper's web site with Google's translations turned on:

https://chernovik.net/
 

Of course, they are likely not permitted to tell the whole story.
 

Edited September 25, 2022 by cesmonkey

[danfrodo]

57 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Indeed, it seems UKR grouping advancing North turned toward Makiivka.

We have several RU claims to work with

• As @Haiduk said it looks like one of UKR groups turned toward Makiivka
• UKR group in Ridkodub seems to counter attacked and recaptured Nove settlement
• Another UKR group (RU claim it is the same one but i do not believe them) is attacking south. RU claim it is going toward Lyman rear
• There is another unknown UKR group advancing North close to Maliivka and Vyshne Solone (to Northwest from Ridkodub)

I skipped actions at Novoselivka-Drobishevo-Lyman-Yampil line as there are no significant changes there.

GrigB once again bringing the good stuff. 

What's fascinating to me is that this pace, though much slower than the drive to Kupyansk, is still faster by an order of magnitude or more than anything we saw all summer.  So RU knows exactly where the attack is and still can't stop it?  That says a lot about these two armies right now.

Pray for sunshine to whatever god or gods you think might help.  Looks like rain every day for the next week, though most days look to be light rain or just showers. 

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Always better to have your enemy shooting each other than you shooting them.

Move your special forces among them. A shot to the left and a shot to the right usually does the trick. Maybe NATO gets the blame for all the Bungy Jumpers who forgot a rope. Aneurism victims etc. 

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

What does Russia do about Lyman?  It looks to be pretty well isolated already and Ukraine is making progress against the defenders.  Others have speculated that Russian (well, LPR for the most part, right?) forces will retreat from there before they are completely cut off.  That seems likely as so far Russians have shown no interest in fighting to the death.  I don't think the higher up orders that there shall be no retreat are going to be obeyed.

Steve

That is a very interesting question. Well, it is a mix now - volunteers, LPR and RU regulars. Retreating them is a sensible move but politically it would be disastrous. Also, there is a change in mood - all RU troops feel ashamed after Izum. They want to show pig Untermensch how glorious RU Ubermesnh fight. So, it looks like they decided to do the stupidest thing - hold the ground and die.

Quote

Right now, 144 MR Division is going to immortality. What 488 MR Regiment, 254 MR Regiment, 59 Tank Regiment, 99 SPG Regiment have done and are doing will be written in fiery letters on the pages of the glorious military history of Russia. Sometime after the victory, remember about the glorious Smolensk and Bryansk guys, they deserved it.

I am proud of my friendship with them, I am proud that I have shared and will continue to share a dry meal and a glass [of vodka] with these guys. I am proud that under fire we joked and will joke.

Khokhols are rushing hordes on the Oskol front despite the losses. His equipment is burning, corpses are strewn with settlements and forest plantations. The "thin red line" of the Russian Guards is holding back his advance, fertilizing the already fertile chernozem of Slobozhanshchina by the soldiers of the AFU.

Soon, very soon, newly formed units and divisions will approach, the enemy will be defeated, humiliated and destroyed. Well, in the meantime, it is they who have been leading continuous battles for 7 months against a superior enemy, who preserve Russia.

 

 

[Grigb]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The other operation I didn't mention is a classic for brutal dictatorships -> play on their paranoia over traitors in their midst.  There's a rumor that Lavrov is looking for a place to hide.  I don't know if it's true or not, but this is the sort of thing I'd like to get in front of Putin's eyes.  How about making the FSB think the GRU is making some sort of move, while at the same time convincing the GRU that FSB is going to strike first?  That sort of thing works very well in a crisis situation where paranoia is cranked up and things are getting worse by the day.

Always better to have your enemy shooting each other than you shooting them.

Steve

Pitting Putin and FSB against GRU/Army is good solid move - looks like Putin is going to throw Army generals under the bus. It is only logical they would want to make a move... 

[Grigb]

8 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

You can some more info on the developments in Dagestan from this local newspaper's web site with Google's translations turned on:

https://chernovik.net/
 

Of course, they are likely not permitted to tell the whole story.
 

Yes, good one. Here is interesting quote:

Quote

No one from the government came to the people. People did not see representatives of the authorities. But they saw those who beat and demean them. Although people came out in defense of and these very police officers, who tomorrow can easily be mobilized and sent to Donbass...

Did the silence of the authorities help to calm the people? No. The people are angry. People don't like when their women are beaten and demeaned. People will come up with something. But Melikov [Head of the region] won't like it.

 

[Letter from Prague]

The screws are tightening:

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Right now, 144 MR Division is going to immortality. What 488 MR Regiment, 254 MR Regiment, 59 Tank Regiment, 99 SPG Regiment have done and are doing will be written in fiery letters on the pages of the glorious military history of Russia. Sometime after the victory, remember about the glorious Smolensk and Bryansk guys, they deserved it.

I am proud of my friendship with them, I am proud that I have shared and will continue to share a dry meal and a glass [of vodka] with these guys. I am proud that under fire we joked and will joke.

Khokhols are rushing hordes on the Oskol front despite the losses. His equipment is burning, corpses are strewn with settlements and forest plantations. The "thin red line" of the Russian Guards is holding back his advance, fertilizing the already fertile chernozem of Slobozhanshchina by the soldiers of the AFU.

Soon, very soon, newly formed units and divisions will approach, the enemy will be defeated, humiliated and destroyed. Well, in the meantime, it is they who have been leading continuous battles for 7 months against a superior enemy, who preserve Russia.

Holy crap!  Where did you get this from, Grigb?  Looks like someone took a bunch of Nazi propaganda reporting form the front, swapped out "Khokhols" for "Ivans" ad Russian unit designations for German ones.

Sooooo... it seems that at least some of Russia's mix-bag forces are attempting to go out in a blaze of glory?  Interesting to see how long that attitude lasts front wide.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

57 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

The screws are tightening:

 

Yesh.  I know someone that is trying to escape Russia, but has already found his path blocked by visa restrictions.  He was thinking of going to Georgia, but even days ago the rumor was people weren't getting through.

Sucks.  He wanted out years ago but stayed because of family and no solid job prospects abroad.  Now he's going to have to ride it out in Russia.

Steve