Battlefront.com Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 As mentioned here already, there are multiple ways the conscription can be used by Russia in the field. Rebuilding shattered units is likely as their manpower is far below what it needs to be for even minimal effectiveness. Creating brand new formations is possible as well, however that was largely required due to the inability (practical and otherwise) of mixing volunteers with established military units. The decree promised something specific -> training. We can guess they won't receive anything even close to resembling sufficient refresher or new specialty training. Having soldiers concentrated into new units instead of individual replacements dramatically increases the chances of mutinies. Far better to scattered the new inductees amongst existing personnel to dilute the discontent. However, the units at the front are already in tough shape from a morale standpoint. Having poorly trained replacements that are pissed off about being in uniform is going to further degrade morale and, therefore, combat potential. It is also going to increase the chances that frontline units will not do as they are told to. The 300k figure is 60% of what Russia has probably cycled through Ukraine already. All indications are that Russia has already run out of 1st tier equipment and has dug deeply into 2nd tier. Production is obviously slow and under strain already, so new production can not significantly improve the situation. What Russia will arm these new forces with, especially for equipment already in short supply (communications, EW, AD, etc), is going to be quite entertaining to watch. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Tea leaves in Putin's portion of the announcement indicate to me that he is now making official what has unofficially been going on for the last few months. And that is Russia is going on the defensive everywhere other than Donetsk. The curious thing is that he stated that Luhansk is liberated, yet it is in danger of losing a big chunk of territory if the weather holds out for a few more weeks. Where are the Russian units to prevent this from happening and thus causing Putin headaches from the RU Nats? Are we finally going to see some forces (from the south, most likely) shifted in to Luhansk? Or is Putin going to roll the dice on Ukraine being done in that area for now and allow Russia to reinforce it with refreshed forces before the winter campaign season starts? Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Putin's explicit and deliberately aggressive mentioning of nukes is problematic. It has to be taken seriously and at face value. However, I do not see much point in debating it more than we have already. We've covered all that ground several times over and then several times more than that with another several times on top of that. We have exhausted the discussion long ago, so I'm only mentioning it now because it should at least be acknowledged that this speech made mention of it explicitly. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlsatianFelix Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 (edited) 300,000 Russians are about to have to make individual choices. Do they go to the front like sheep? Or do they fight Moscow like lions and take control for themselves. History has shown that they have the collective ability to do either. I have no sympathy for people who have a choice but then make the choice which harms others. (And no, going to the front like lions is not a permutation because it requires training, NCOs, and good morale none of which have been evident so far.) May you live in interesting times. Edited September 21, 2022 by AlsatianFelix remove double negative 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beetz Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said: We have the single most important development in this war from the Russian side of the equation since the early days of the war. It really is Russias next step. Since the beginning of the conflict I was asking myself why isn't Russia going all in as soon as things went south with the operation. since they already knew their plans and everything else really were already on fire. I asked myself ist Putin different from other autocrats in not playing va banque, like hitler once stated and going all in on things. even though he knew the war is going to be a high risk endavour (Ive never seen Putin so nervous like on his war speech before) I thought he could still be trying to keep an exit door open even if its at a loss. And I was curious in how is he going to move himself out of the situation? Well it seems he and others are trying to go all in on a lost cause and sealing their political fate, doing it step by step instead. So now Im asking myself how long can you keep things on a rationale when following down that road? Because this is no way out strategy really. Beetz Edited September 21, 2022 by Beetz 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddy Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: However, the units at the front are already in tough shape from a morale standpoint. Having poorly trained replacements that are pissed off about being in uniform is going to further degrade morale and, therefore, combat potential. It is also going to increase the chances that frontline units will not do as they are told to. Yep and morale is only going to get worse when you consider the contractors who've done 6 months and were about to go back to Russia. I can't imagine they'll be jumping for joy having to stay indefinitely at the front. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DesertFox Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 (edited) I think it will be interesting so see how that possibly changes the russian perception of this Tolstoian "special operation and peace" event. It is one thing to see "voluntary" contactors die in ukraine, but with conscription put in place, it is an entirely different affair for the population to see your relatives and friends die. Edited September 21, 2022 by DesertFox 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 (edited) Mark Hertling has a thread, before commanding US Army, Europe, he was commander over all basic and advanced soldier training for the Army so I'm quite inclined to believe his words on Russian training. Thread shows that RU leadership and training is woeful even in normal circumstances. Edited September 21, 2022 by FancyCat 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 4 hours ago, kraze said: Never once in this thread I ever posted any call to kill anyone like that ever. I have no idea why "all russians should be held responsible for actions of their army they themselves support" is treated as "hate speech" but when somebody posts "I wish putin and all russian army died for what they do" - it's somehow not hate speech. Just like I have no idea why I'm repeatedly being called racist whenever I'm not happy with what russians do - when russians themselves are not a race. It's not even an ethnicity. Buryats are an ethnicity. Mongols are a race. Maybe when your compatriots (or, sometimes unfortunately) friends turn out to be dead and lacking body parts - it's just problematic to do only Love Speech and pretending it's putin personally running around frontlines and raping women - which is a very comfortable world view, I agree - but how exactly hating invaders (of all kinds) makes me "racist" - I have zero idea. "Mongols" are not a race either. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bulletpoint Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 42 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: Now we will see if Putin's fear of mobilization was justified. And soon. We might see massive protests starting tomorrow, for example. However, I think it is more likely that reaction to this news will take a while to blossom into something large scale. I think Putin has tried to soften the blow by calling for a "limited" mobilisation of reservists - as far as I understand, he's only calling up men who were previously conscripted but decided to stay in the reserves for some extra pay. This makes it more difficult to really protest about it, since those guys more or less willingly signed that contract. They probably didn't think they signed up for this absurd war, but here we are. If Putin had gone for mass mobilisation of non-volunteers it would probably have been more of a shock to society at large. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Zwolinski Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 22 minutes ago, AlsatianFelix said: 300,000 Russians are about to have to make individual choices. Do they go to the front like sheep? Or do they fight Moscow like lions and take control for themselves. History has shown that they have the collective ability to do either. We will see, but the intercepted phone calls from Russian soldiers which the Ukrainians post from time to time on the Internet show the Russian soldiers to be EXTREMELY resigned to their fate, apathetic and tolerant of abuse. They expected to be sent on suicide missions, not fed, not supplied, etc. They grumbled about it freely and some of them talked about trying various beaurocratic excuses for getting back and not fighting, but nothing more energetic. No talk of mutiny, no talk of desertion. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 3 hours ago, Grigb said: I noticed something interesting - Shoigu said: Conscripts will serve in[side] Russia [only]. That means recently captured territories as well. But that also means any formation reinforced with conscripts will not be able to conduct offensive operations outside of recently captured territories. Looks like RU officially switched to strategic defense. This is the most sensible reading of what we just heard from Moscow. Still not a general mobilization, a change in DNR/LNR status to signal a willingness to use nuclear weapons to hold them, a warning that strikes at ISR are possible. Russia is continuing the strategy it really began after the Kyiv pullback. Festung NovoRossiya will be attempted in Southern Ukraine with the hope that the West gets tired before he does. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongLeftFlank Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, billbindc said: "Mongols" are not a race either. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huba Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 This is a very interesting detail, pertaining to our previous discussion about conscripts. It is indeed what he says there @Grigb? It makes sense IMO, sending conscripts would be unnecessarily aggravating I think, assuming enough of former contract soldiers can be rounded up. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 ChrisO thread, which lends my thinking that any opportunity to push offensive action before the Russian military can regenerate combat capability is vital in my opinion, where possible to do so by the ZSU in order to weaken Russian regeneration. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peregrine Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, Beetz said: It really is Russias next step. Since the beginning of the conflict I was asking myself why isn't Russia going all in as soon as things went south with the operation. It will be impossible to tell the Russian supply situation until well after this war is over and maybe not even then but 300000 people is 15-20 divisions. That is a lot of gear lying around that nobody already has dibs on. So considering corruption is a top to bottom national pastime it may not have been possible until now or even now to put that many guys additional guys in the field. I am hoping this is desperation time on the Russian part putting warm bodies into the contested areas to make it a bloodier prospect short term for Ukrainian victories. Because same training + same equipment + same doctrine versus Ukrainian divisions that have only improved since the war started (ie improving(ed) gear + winning experience without burnout + doctrine that is getting results) is not a recipe for success. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 38 minutes ago, AlsatianFelix said: 300,000 Russians are about to have to make individual choices. Do they go to the front like sheep? Or do they fight Moscow like lions and take control for themselves. History has shown that they have the collective ability to do either. I have no sympathy for people who have a choice but then make the choice which harms others. (And no, going to the front like lions is not a permutation because it requires training, NCOs, and good morale none of which have been evident so far.) May you live in interesting times. The children of the powerful are completely unaffected so nothing will happen. The disadvantaged will try to avoid as much as possible, but then passively go to die in Ukraine when they run out of options. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said: -5 for relevance +1,000,000 for musical taste 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, akd said: The children of the powerful are completely unaffected so nothing will happen. The disadvantaged will try to avoid as much as possible, but then passively go to die in Ukraine when they run out of options. Summer of 1917 would like a word... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_MonkeyKing Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, Huba said: This is a very interesting detail, pertaining to our previous discussion about conscripts. It is indeed what he says there @Grigb? It makes sense IMO, sending conscripts would be unnecessarily aggravating I think, assuming enough of former contract soldiers can be rounded up. Why would they use actively serving conscripts? They are in the middle of their training. They, so to say graduate when they leave the army. After this they have "soldiers professional degree" and can be called up in mobilization. Using actively serving conscripts would be highly non-standard and very politically sensitive. Closest thing is going to be last years conscripts getting called up. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FancyCat Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 Why is it still a SMO? How can Russia give figures where half the UKR military has been wiped for only 6k on the Russian side and then ask for partial mobilization yet still frame it as a limited military operation? So many holes. Every time I hear of forced conscription my blood boils, is there no end to Russian warcrimes? So much notice and attention given to poor Russians who are trying to flee mobilization while in Ukraine, they snatch whoever they can to be cannon fodder, Ukrainian vs Ukrainian. Where is the attention for them? Truly, **** Russia. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 49 minutes ago, Eddy said: Yep and morale is only going to get worse when you consider the contractors who've done 6 months and were about to go back to Russia. I can't imagine they'll be jumping for joy having to stay indefinitely at the front. Hehe... yeah, and there is that too Since the beginning of the war we have struggled to find anything "good" to say about the Russian prospects in this war. And I'm talking about REAL things, not all the nonsensical and illogical things people suggested (e.g. they can just make more tanks, they have endless manpower, etc.). It is always important to look for such things to minimize surprise and plan appropriately. Putin's big announcement is not a surprise at all and has already been kicked to the curb 5+months since it was first discussed. The Russians suck at war. They really need to get a hobby. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckdyke Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: The Russians suck at war. They really need to get a hobby. He needs a gaming laptop with Black Sea installed. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Artkin Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 300,000 new troops sure. But the guys already didnt even have boots. So WTF are you sending new 300k men into battle with? Are they going to drain the Javelin stock with T-55s, footwraps and rainbow camoflage?? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted September 21, 2022 Share Posted September 21, 2022 37 minutes ago, billbindc said: -5 for relevance +1,000,000 for musical taste I disagree. +2,000,000. BTW, Elvis recently saw Devo live. The bastard didn't even invite me. Back to our regular schedule discussion... Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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