How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Yup, fully agreed we need to move away from those, hence my edit. Folks here can speak for themselves.

As long as they say what the 'majority' wants to hear.

[Grigb]

There are already important points from the speech in telegram

Quote

Partial mobilization is being announced in Russia from today.

— Only those citizens who are in the reserve, and above all those who have served in the ranks of the armed forces, have certain military specialties and relevant experience, will be subject to conscription for military service.

— Those called up for military service will necessarily undergo additional military training before being sent to units .

— All issues of material, resource and financial support of defense enterprises should be resolved by the government immediately.

— Russia has been asked to support referendums. I would like to emphasize that we will do everything to ensure the safe conduct of referendums.

— The regime of repression throughout Ukraine has been strengthened in the most severe way. The policy of intimidation, terror, violence is taking increasingly terrible barbaric forms.

— We have no moral right to give people close to us to the executioner, we cannot do anything else but respond to their aspirations to determine their own future.

— When territorial integrity is threatened, Russia uses all methods, including nuclear weapons. This is not a bluff.

— The goal of the West is to weaken, divide and destroy our country. They directly say that in 1991 they were able to split the USSR, and now it's time for the Russian Federation itself, that it should break up into many warring regions.

— The Ukrainian people have been turned into cannon fodder.

— A new regular, as it has been twice before, a large-scale offensive in the Donbas was inevitable, and then an attack on the Crimea. And the decision on a proactive operation was necessary.

— The LPR is almost completely cleared of neo-Nazis. The fighting in the Donetsk People's Republic continues. Here the Kiev regime has created a deep line of fortifications.

— I have already given instructions to the Government and the Ministry of Defense to determine the legal status of volunteers and fighters of the LPR and DPR in full as soon as possible. It should be the same as that of the military personnel, including medical support, social guarantees.

 

Interesting Medusa comment on mobilization decree

Quote

The Kremlin has published a decree on partial mobilization. It does not say that only reserve servicemen are subject to conscription
1. Declare partial mobilization in the Russian Federation from September 21, 2022.

2. To carry out the conscription of citizens of the Russian Federation for military service on mobilization in the Armed Forces. Citizens of the Russian Federation called up for military service on mobilization have the status of military personnel undergoing military service in the Armed Forces under a contract.

3. To establish that the level of monetary maintenance of citizens of the Russian Federation called up for military service on mobilization in the Armed Forces corresponds to the level of monetary maintenance of military personnel undergoing military service in the Armed Forces under a contract.

 

[Aragorn2002]

8 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

The view of

Russian-speaking = Russian-ancestry = Russian-supporting = Wants to be part of Russia

is just entirely wrong. We have talked about it for months again and again. Arguing this is not just Russian propaganda, but bizarre at this point.

As I suggested some time ago about the Russian minorities in the Baltics. Give them a choice. To live in freedom in a democracy and give up  their Russian citizenship or to leave and go back to Russia. And make sure that it happens in a civil way. Russia is BIG. Enough space. No need to claim other people's territory and possesions. Something has to be done or the Russian population in Ukraine will remain a festering wound.

Edited September 21, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[FancyCat]

Im sure every Russian soldier in Ukraine getting HIMARed is enjoying hearing this.

 

[Grigb]

Shoigu

Quote

We are no longer fighting so much with Ukraine as with the collective West. Plus NATO. This means not only weapons that are supplied to Ukraine, but also communication systems, information processing, intelligence. Virtually the entire NATO satellite grouping is working against us.

We were surprised that recently they have been trying to hide the number of precision weapons supplied to Kiev. We see almost every day the attacks of these weapons on the civilian population.

At the initial stage, the armed forces of Ukraine amounted to 200-201 thousand people. They have 61 thousand dead, 49 thousand wounded. Half of the army is lost. They are in the fourth wave of mobilization. 300 thousand have been mobilized. As they say, [they] are catching [people] from the beach to the train station. There are about a thousand mercenaries left. More than two thousand died

 

[UPDATE] claiming

Quote

There is no question of any mobilization of students. Conscript soldiers are also not subject to mobilization.

They are trying to do mobilization without mobilization.

[UPDATE2] They are planning to recall 300,000

[UPDATE3] Seems to be that's it

Edited September 21, 2022 by Grigb

[kraze]

1 minute ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Other than ad hominems (which I think we agreed are not constructive), what other knowledge do you have to contribute? Pray enlighten us.

2014 happened because russian empire is an empire and can't exist without expansion. So on 20.02.14 the war began, in Crimea and incl. contributing troops to kill people at Maidan.

Trying to claim that "russian speaking" people were some kind of a lower caste in a country where Ukrainian music, movies and literature were effectively banned until 2014-2015 (and were unbanned and finally getting protection as a result of the invasion as a law only in 2019) - is exactly what shows the lack of knowledge about the topic.

So, naturally, nobody ever thought there's something wrong with "russian speaking" Ukrainians, nor did it change, apart from many of those "russian speaking" Ukrainians stopping speaking russian after their homes get smashed by 'russian made' bombs.

As for russians. Screw those guys - they are not getting free ride into Europe by coming to live in homes of people they (or their army) killed. Deportation it is and nothing else. I hope this is "not ad hominem" enough?

[Grigb]

And now for something completely different

Quote

Shoigu: losses of the Russian army since the beginning of the war — 5937 people died
The Russian Defense Minister did not name the number of wounded. But stressed that "more than 90% of the wounded returned to service.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

Just now, kraze said:

2014 happened because russian empire is an empire and can't exist without expansion. So on 20.02.14 the war began, in Crimea and incl. contributing troops to kill people at Maidan.

Trying to claim that "russian speaking" people were some kind of a lower caste in a country where Ukrainian music, movies and literature were effectively banned until 2014-2015 (and were unbanned and finally getting protection as a result of the invasion as a law only in 2019) - is exactly what shows the lack of knowledge about the topic.

So, naturally, nobody ever thought there's something wrong with "russian speaking" Ukrainians, nor did it change, apart from many of those "russian speaking" Ukrainians stopping speaking russian after their homes get smashed by 'russian made' bombs.

As for russians. Screw those guys - they are not getting free ride into Europe by coming to live in homes of people they (or their army) killed. Deportation it is and nothing else. I hope this is "not ad hominem" enough?

No issue, thank you for providing your views.

[The_MonkeyKing]

Well, Russia is going to solve its manpower problem.

And to anybody talking about morale ext. look at history. War has been fought by men who do not want to fight for millennia. There are well tried and tested "methods" for this. Yes, it is not as efficient but often good enough.

As long as the home front doesn't collapse from the inside.

[Letter from Prague]

Man, every time they say "we're fighting the whole West and NATO", I think, I wish you really were.

[Zeleban]

I don’t understand why some participants in this forum are afraid that Ukraine will carry out purges in the territories of the DPR and LPR. Ukraine in 2014 already had the experience of liberating its territories, for example, Slavyansk, Mariupol, as well as a number of cities in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. There was no talk of any purges then.

Moreover, many collaborators remained in their positions.

[FancyCat]

Just now, The_MonkeyKing said:

Well, Russia is going to solve its manpower problem.

And to anybody talking about morale ext. look at history. War has been fought by men who do not want to fight for millennia. There are well tried and tested "methods" for this. Yes, it is not as efficient but often good enough.

As long as the home front doesn't collapse from the inside.

Ehh maybe if the mobilization occurred at the start, sure, but it's happening after the defeat at Kharkiv, after months of the best of the Russian military being ground down to dust. The VDV, 1st Tank Guards Army, are dust. You don't think the news of people refusing contracts or trying to get out does not defuse in the age of the internet? They were getting only half enlistment goals with incentives.

[FancyCat]

5 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

I don’t understand why some participants in this forum are afraid that Ukraine will carry out purges in the territories of the DPR and LPR. Ukraine in 2014 already had the experience of liberating its territories, for example, Slavyansk, Mariupol, as well as a number of cities in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. There was no talk of any purges then.

Moreover, many collaborators remained in their positions.

Well certainly this time they should rightly be purged. (Not killed but if you betray your country again, you can't expect to keep your position!). Betray once, I suppose but again? Goddamn that's some treachery.

Also, aren't there a few pro-Russians who remained loyal to Ukraine? Are there any who supported Russia in 2014 but now now in 2022 stayed loyal to Ukraine?

Edited September 21, 2022 by FancyCat

[The_MonkeyKing]

8 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Ehh maybe if the mobilization occurred at the start, sure, but it's happening after the defeat at Kharkiv, after months of the best of the Russian military being ground down to dust. The VDV, 1st Tank Guards Army, are dust. You don't think the news of people refusing contracts or trying to get out does not defuse in the age of the internet? They were getting only half enlistment goals with incentives.

Draft dodging is also as old phenomenon as war itself. There are tried and tested methods. Especially so in a totalitarian surveillance state.

Only thing that has helped to stop this in history is a collapse of the homefront that compromises the operation of the state/government. 

Edited September 21, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[Taranis]

15 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Shoigu: losses of the Russian army since the beginning of the war — 5937 people died
The Russian Defense Minister did not name the number of wounded. But stressed that "more than 90% of the wounded returned to service.

Sorry, so many BS, that I had to comment.

Next Russian Estimate : 3 000 000 of UKR KIA when they only have 1 000 000 army. 120% of wounded and killed Russian soldiers return to service by making 2 soldiers with only one thanks to bionic prostheses and the superior will of the Russians.

[CHEqTRO]

What I missed from both speeches was a formal declaration of war. Under which pretext are they ordering a partial mobiliation then? I guess they will be forced to declare it once they annex the captured territories thought. Unless they want to admit that you can occupy "integral" parts of Russia without consecuence. They have allowed Belgorod and Crimea to be blasted with no reaction so 

 

[FancyCat]

7 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Draft dodging is also as old phenomenon as war itself. There are tried and tested methods. Especially so in a totalitarian surveillance state.

Only thing that has helped to stop this in history is a collapse of the homefront that compromises the operation of the state/government. 

Russia was shoving volunteers into Ukraine with only 2 weeks training in some instances. Maybe Russia improves, reforms but nothing so far indicates that.

Russia should have mobilized way earlier, personnel and equipment has been spent that cannot be effectively replaced in a short time period. (Some not even in a long time period)

One, Ukraine cannot pull off the seizure of Kherson before Winter or any other offensive during Winter, and Russia can use the downtime to train.

Two, the more likely option, Ukraine keeps pushing, Russia is forced to do the same as it did with the contract soldiers earlier and deploy them with only two weeks training to shore up the lines. Absolute meat grinder will occur, and likely not to Russia's benefit.

Edited September 21, 2022 by FancyCat

[Zeleban]

20 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Well certainly this time they should rightly be purged. (Not killed but if you betray your country again, you can't expect to keep your position!). Betray once, I suppose but again? Goddamn that's some treachery.

Also, aren't there a few pro-Russians who remained loyal to Ukraine? Are there any who supported Russia in 2014 but now now in 2022 stayed loyal to Ukraine?

There are such people too. But you can't take them seriously. They adapt to any situation. In the event of the re-capture of territories by Russia, they will again go over to the side of the Russians

[Huba]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

Russia was shoving volunteers into Ukraine with only 2 weeks training in some instances. Maybe Russia improves, reforms but nothing so far indicates that.

Russia should have mobilized way earlier, personnel and equipment has been spent that cannot be effectively replaced in a short time period. (Some not even in a long time period)

One, Ukraine cannot pull off the seizure of Kherson before Winter or any other offensive during Winter, and Russia can use the downtime to train.

Two, the more likely option, Ukraine keeps pushing, Russia is forced to do the same as it did with the contract soldiers earlier and deploy them with only two weeks training to shore up the lines. Absolute meat grinder will occur, and likely not to Russia's benefit.

Kherson is a lost cause IMO, there's no amount of men that Russia could send on the right bank that would change that IMO. Ukraine still has some months of numerical superiority ( actually the announced 300K still doesn't give RU numerical parity, am I right?).
What I'd love to see though is West going into the overdrive with it's material support, this is a moment of truth for us and I really hope we'll be up to the task. UA will need everything we can give them - armor, planes, missiles, it will have to get ugly before it gets better.

Edited September 21, 2022 by Huba

[Bulletpoint]

So, he went ahead and mobilised. At least partially. But like the proverbial frog in the pot, it's probably just easier to turn up the heat slowly. First the "special military operation", now a "limited" mobilisation... The first 300,000 frogs are in the pot.

[poesel]

31 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

I don’t understand why some participants in this forum are afraid that Ukraine will carry out purges in the territories of the DPR and LPR.

Afraid as in the sense of 'unlikely to happen, but if it would be very bad'.
Any (hypothetical!) ethnic cleansing inside Ukraine would very seriously damage the image of Ukraine. That would be the worst long term political damage that could happen.

17 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

What I missed from both speeches was a formal declaration of war.

You didn't listen. The West forced Ukraine to this war. So Ukraine (as the puppet of the West) has already declared it.
Tssk, comrade come on. It's easy to understand.

 

[kraze]

43 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Well, Russia is going to solve its manpower problem.

And to anybody talking about morale ext. look at history. War has been fought by men who do not want to fight for millennia. There are well tried and tested "methods" for this. Yes, it is not as efficient but often good enough.

As long as the home front doesn't collapse from the inside.

As Steve has calculated - thus far approx. 500.000 russian soldiers have been to Ukraine. And they were much better equipped, much better trained and with a much higher morale than these guys will ever have. Having large numbers of rapists is never an issue for Russia. But there's a reason those 500.000 run out so fast that he needs another 300.000.

[chuckdyke]

Germany declared war on the US because they considered the Lend Lease to Britain an act of war. Looks like putin is using the same logic.

[Aragorn2002]

51 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

No issue, thank you for providing your views.

Now there's an example we all ought to follow and discussions like that will just fade away. "Is that your opinion?" Fine, good luck with that.

[kraze]

45 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

I don’t understand why some participants in this forum are afraid that Ukraine will carry out purges in the territories of the DPR and LPR. Ukraine in 2014 already had the experience of liberating its territories, for example, Slavyansk, Mariupol, as well as a number of cities in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. There was no talk of any purges then.

Moreover, many collaborators remained in their positions.

Because any 'western civilization', that is remote enough from other civilizations, does that to your view. Through a twisted lens of comfort people tend to find explanations for everything that will go in line with their worldview. Isn't pure evil is just a fantasy stuff present in movies and it's always two sides who are at fault (which allows to not pick a side and stay "above it")? Here in Europe we aren't raping and brutally torturing people for fun - so why anyone else would? And if somebody is enraged at somebody else - he's the bad guy. After all russians do warcrimes mostly in silence, yeah sometimes they make a video but you can just hit the skip button.

It's why it's so hard to explain Russia to French or Spanish, but you don't need to say a word to Polish or Czech, not to mention Lithuanian or Latvian.