How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Machor]

Russia's force projection in the Caucasus is down to nil:

 

[Huba]

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

No offense to the French, but when it comes to engineering there are the Germans   Check out the time lapse at the end.

However, this thing can only do something like 150m maximum and, like I was saying about the Russian capacity, it would be easily taken out of the war because.  Germany supposedly has 30 in service which is a total capacity of about 400m of bridging total.

Steve

 Delightful! I never saw our MoD decision discussed (apart from snarky comments that they wasted 20 years and then purchased what was available in the „o sh*t!” moment). I guess some advantages of trailer based system would be the ease of maintenance, and ability to use preferred type of towing trucks. Probably these could be stacked to any length needed too. Still, nowhere near the awesomeness of the German solution.

Oh, and reportedly we got around 12 sets. Given that Vistula is 500+ meter wide along most of it’s length,, it doesn’t sound like we got enough. 

Edited August 6, 2022 by Huba

[Aragorn2002]

11 minutes ago, Machor said:

FancyCat already posted a tweet linking to this, but I think it's worth posting more detail: The Bellingcat report on the latest Russian torture/murder videos is out. I'll quote the introduction as a summary; TL;DR:

1. The primary suspect is a Siberian ethnic minority fighting alongside Chechens.

2. It looks like the Russians considered charging him, but changed their mind and claimed that it was Ukrainian soldiers who tortured and murdered the Ukrainian victim.

Tracking the Faceless Killers who Mutilated and Executed a Ukrainian POW

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2022/08/05/tracking-the-faceless-killers-who-mutilated-and-executed-a-ukrainian-pow/
 

And a new atrocity:

 

Russian scum.

[Vet 0369]

On 8/4/2022 at 10:29 AM, Taranis said:

French 120mm RTF-1 mortars use PR-14 shells (more commonly known as OE-120-F1 in the French army). They have the characteristic of having a detachable tubular tailboom at the rear when the shell leaves the mortar. I don't know though if the Russians can have the ability to shoot them. I still have a doubt because the shell is pre-rifled and the Russian mortar would therefore have to have exactly the same mortar rifling.

Now this really surprises me! Granted, it’s been more than 50 years since I had a mortar section, and technology has undoubtedly advanced in that time, but I never saw a mortar tube of any size that was rifled. All were smoothbore. In order to engage rifling in a barrel, it must be done by the round engaging the rifling as it leaves the chamber, or by expanding the base of the round itself (such as the Minnie ball round developed in the mid-19th century). A mortar round is dropped dow the tube from the muzzle, so there is no chamber, and since the round is not compressible, unless the base of the fins expand to engage the rifling, there is no need way to engage any rifling. As I said, i’s been at least 54 years since I’ve fired a mortar, so I guess it could be different now, but I can’t comprehend why they would do it. Put rifling in a mortar, and you effectively have a howitzer. 

[OldSarge]

30 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

Now this really surprises me! Granted, it’s been more than 50 years since I had a mortar section, and technology has undoubtedly advanced in that time, but I never saw a mortar tube of any size that was rifled. All were smoothbore. In order to engage rifling in a barrel, it must be done by the round engaging the rifling as it leaves the chamber, or by expanding the base of the round itself (such as the Minnie ball round developed in the mid-19th century). A mortar round is dropped dow the tube from the muzzle, so there is no chamber, and since the round is not compressible, unless the base of the fins expand to engage the rifling, there is no need way to engage any rifling. As I said, i’s been at least 54 years since I’ve fired a mortar, so I guess it could be different now, but I can’t comprehend why they would do it. Put rifling in a mortar, and you effectively have a howitzer. 

I think that he is referring to a relative of the RT-61/MO-120 mortar.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortier_120mm_Rayé_Tracté_Modèle_F1

Apparently, the USMC used it for a bit, here you can see the rifling.

and the barrel..

Edited August 6, 2022 by OldSarge

[Beleg85]

58 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Similar to the great video posted yesterday about Russia's flawed thinking about its leverage with energy, it is also wrong about its leverage over European and US politics.  All the money spent on supposedly buying protection from Western retaliation for Russian crimes was wasted.  Bribes, threats, funding useful idiots, etc. all worked pretty well for Russia when Western national interests weren't overtly threatened. 

Since Russia is a criminal state, it's not wrong to compare it to criminal gangs operating in urban areas.  Bribes, threats, blackmail, petty crimes, etc... work pretty well.  Authorities might nibble at the organization here and there, but by and large it gets to do what it wants to.  However, once the gang starts killing people in broad daylight, threatens the lives of cops, goes after judges, etc... well... the authorities don't just slam down on the specific activity that crossed the line, they tend to go after the entire enterprise.  Almost overnight illegal operations that authorities have known about for years suddenly get raided, people at the top find themselves arrested for crimes committed over a long period of time, financial assets seized, etc.

This is what has happened to Russia.  The network of influence Russia paid for over the last 20+ years is decimated because of the war in Ukraine and ONLY because of the war in Ukraine.  I don't know how that benefits Russia, but Putin is the master strategist so I'm sure this is all going according to his plan

Steve

Coincidently, Galeev's today topic is exactly about this:

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1555898394480091136

There are clear limits to those "prison" or "mafia" analogies, but he is on some right track that this part of Russian mentality is often misunderstood by western public opinions/academia.

[acrashb]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

In short, everything about the US is designed to handle at least two major foreign needs at the same time.

If by "two major foreign needs" we mean a two-theatre war, I don't think that's correct, as the significant post-cold war drawdowns speak against it.  So I googled.  It turns out that no president has really changed the two-theatre war model, so it comes down to desire vs. capability.  From the Britannica article, "some analysts believed that the two-theatre war strategy, though still officially upheld by the Pentagon, was effectively relinquished in the 2000s in favour of a more realistic assessment and a leaner military".  This is sadly vague (it could include panzermartin as one of the 'some' analysts), but jives with what I know, and the article overall shows a trend to reduce multi-theatre capability, as do others with credible pedigrees.  

Things have change significantly from WWII / Cold War to now.  The desire for the much-vaunted "peace dividend" with the fall of the USSR has reduced capabilities.

But if you mean "funnelling weapons, training and ISR" to two major theatres, sure, that's well within the US / West's capability.

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ensuring China understands that the US is both capable and willing to defend Taiwan is essential if the world is to avoid yet another asinine war. 

Absolutely.  China's window to take Taiwan will open and then close (for economic and demographic reasons) at some point; during that period, if they are in any way emboldened they will do it, or try to do it.

Preventing that is necessary to a) avoid a new domino effect and b) prevent either the destruction of the bulk of the world's integrated circuit capacity (essential to modern life) or the capture and hostage-holding of said capacity.

Having said that, the "try to do it" may be inevitable based on China's domestic political needs and assessments, in which case our option is to stage things such that an attempt would be quickly unsuccessful.

[Haiduk]

Huge boom of Russian tank, probably in Sulyhivka - Brazhkivka area, Izium axis

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

No offense to the French, but when it comes to engineering there are the Germans   Check out the time lapse at the end.

However, this thing can only do something like 150m maximum and, like I was saying about the Russian capacity, it would be easily taken out of the war because.  Germany supposedly has 30 in service which is a total capacity of about 400m of bridging total.

Steve

I raise you Chinese: https://youtu.be/dzzD-cQRpl0

[akd]

Another vid on drone operations at the front:

 

[Elmar Bijlsma]

That bit about the insignia at 9:00, where he mocks analysts who might spot the new one and draw conclusions. It's funny because he is dead on. Also, I feel a little bit seen.

[JonS]

2 hours ago, acrashb said:

If by "two major foreign needs" we mean a two-theatre war

ISTR that some time ago - mid-2000s? - the US pseudo officially downgraded from "win two concurrent peer-level wars/theatres" to "win one peer-level while containing another, or win a peer-level and win a minor concurrently".

That seems to line up with the current situation - what the US is doing in/with/for Ukraine easily fits in the definition of 'contain', leaving the bulk of the US military free to concentrate on Taiwan.

And that's leaving aside the point already noted about different resource requirements - Ukraine doesn't need much input from the USN or USMC, for example.

Edited August 6, 2022 by JonS

[dan/california]

23 minutes ago, JonS said:

ISTR that some time ago - mid-2000s? - the US pseudo officially downgraded from "win two concurrent peer-level wars/theatres" to "win one peer-level while containing another, or win a peer-level and win a minor concurrently".

That seems to line up with the current situation - what the US is doing in/with/for Ukraine easily fits in the definition of 'contain', leaving the bulk of the US military free to concentrate on Taiwan.

And that's leaving aside the point already noted about different resource requirements - Ukraine doesn't need much input from the USN or USMC, for example.

We need to put a Marine division on Taiwan. It needs to be done with highly dispersed basing and build the entire support structure on the assumption that it can rain Chinese missiles any time. An integral part of the Marine deployment should be a training center to get the Taiwanese up to speed. And the whole island needs to sink a foot or two under the weight of small to medium missiles waiting to ruin the PLA's day. and it has already passed but the new law to build more U.S. chip production needs to implemented with all deliberate speed.

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Similar to the great video posted yesterday about Russia's flawed thinking about its leverage with energy, it is also wrong about its leverage over European and US politics.  All the money spent on supposedly buying protection from Western retaliation for Russian crimes was wasted.  Bribes, threats, funding useful idiots, etc. all worked pretty well for Russia when Western national interests weren't overtly threatened. 

Since Russia is a criminal state, it's not wrong to compare it to criminal gangs operating in urban areas.  Bribes, threats, blackmail, petty crimes, etc... work pretty well.  Authorities might nibble at the organization here and there, but by and large it gets to do what it wants to.  However, once the gang starts killing people in broad daylight, threatens the lives of cops, goes after judges, etc... well... the authorities don't just slam down on the specific activity that crossed the line, they tend to go after the entire enterprise.  Almost overnight illegal operations that authorities have known about for years suddenly get raided, people at the top find themselves arrested for crimes committed over a long period of time, financial assets seized, etc.

This is what has happened to Russia.  The network of influence Russia paid for over the last 20+ years is decimated because of the war in Ukraine and ONLY because of the war in Ukraine.  I don't know how that benefits Russia, but Putin is the master strategist so I'm sure this is all going according to his plan

Steve

There needs to be a new law for dealing with nations that are hostile and untrustworthy, but too big to apply the current state sponsor of terrorism law too. The current law would require secondary sanctions on India and every third world nation that is buying Russian grain, oil, and fertilizer. That is simply impractical to do with Russia and China. What the law does need to do is make impossible the kind of elite capture that Londongrad represents to even be attempted. It should be illegal for any law firm, any lobbying firm, any bank, or any kind of advertising/public relations firm to do any business with Russia. Just make them AND THEIR MONEY absolutely persona non grata in elite circles. Do it to Russia and tell the Chinese to think real hard about if this where they want to go.

[Elmar Bijlsma]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

...the new law to build more U.S. chip production needs to implemented with all deliberate speed.

Depends on what you want to have happen to Taiwan. As long as Taiwan makes chips like no-one else does, it is safe. Even China cannot do without Taiwan. Building chip manufacturing might be wise for the USA to do, but throws Taiwan under the bus. China knows the USA will go to bat for Taiwan to protect it's chip sourcing. If those chips will be made in the USA, China must now be made to believe the USA will go to bat for the democratic values of Taiwan.

Call me cynical, but I'd start sweating.

[LongLeftFlank]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

We need to put a Marine division on Taiwan. It needs to be done with highly dispersed basing and build the entire support structure on the assumption that it can rain Chinese missiles any time. An integral part of the Marine deployment should be a training center to get the Taiwanese up to speed. And the whole island needs to sink a foot or two under the weight of small to medium missiles waiting to ruin the PLA's day. and it has already passed but the new law to build more U.S. chip production needs to implemented with all deliberate speed.

Linking to this interesting thread from late last year....

 

 

[paxromana]

8 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Not necessarily so. While the tubes might have been based on the Brandt design, as was the U.S. 60mm M2 mortar, the Soviet/Russian tones use ammunition that is about 2mm larger than the Western designs. That allowed them to use captured ammunition, but prevented their opponents from using captured Soviet/Russian rounds.

Yes, 81,mm vsd 82mm - 1 mm difference. But as fart as I understand it the 120mm Mortars are exactly the same calibre.

[Vet 0369]

4 minutes ago, paxromana said:

Yes, 81,mm vsd 82mm - 1 mm difference. But as fart as I understand it the 120mm Mortars are exactly the same calibre.

That is likely true. As I said, I spoke from my experience as a Company Weapons Section Leader in the USMC in the 1970s. The biggest tubes we had were 81s. The Army had the 120s and IIRC, Four-Duces that were originally developed post-WWI Chemical weapons.

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Depends on what you want to have happen to Taiwan. As long as Taiwan makes chips like no-one else does, it is safe. Even China cannot do without Taiwan. Building chip manufacturing might be wise for the USA to do, but throws Taiwan under the bus. China knows the USA will go to bat for Taiwan to protect it's chip sourcing. If those chips will be made in the USA, China must now be made to believe the USA will go to bat for the democratic values of Taiwan.

Call me cynical, but I'd start sweating.

It isn't clear to me that we can actually catch TSMC. But the economy of the entire planet is dependent on that one spot. I mean an earthquake would be a world shaking fiasco, pun intended. And we could cut the Chinese off if we had supply and Taiwan was a smoking ruin.

[G.I. Joe]

11 hours ago, danfrodo said:

OK, I gotta give you that.  After much praying and reading of scripture, it appears I overstated my case.

I agree w you that airplanes are not false gods.  They are gods but are lesser gods relative to The Most Exalted High Gods (tracked armored vehicles).    Wheeled armored vehicles are the offspring of High Gods w mortals, so are demi-gods. 

Definitely nothing says "combat firepower" quite like a tank...at least not since battleships faded into history, I'll certainly concede that. And I will be the first to say that I love airplanes first and foremost as flying machines...their combat performance is a side issue.

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Definitely nothing says "combat firepower" quite like a tank...at least not since battleships faded into history, I'll certainly concede that. And I will be the first to say that I love airplanes first and foremost as flying machines...their combat performance is a side issue.

OK OK, I admit that some planes are cool.  Especially P51s.  And spitfires.  and FW190s, ME109s.  And F4 phantoms.  And corsairs.  and P47 thunderbolts.  Oh, and stukas.  and B24s.  And zeros.  and of course P38s, super cool.  But other than those, planes are mostly just kinda cool.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Linking to this interesting thread from late last year....

 

 

Thou hast returned

I was worried maybe Putin's agents had gotten to you.

[Aragorn2002]

6 hours ago, dan/california said:

We need to put a Marine division on Taiwan. It needs to be done with highly dispersed basing and build the entire support structure on the assumption that it can rain Chinese missiles any time. An integral part of the Marine deployment should be a training center to get the Taiwanese up to speed. And the whole island needs to sink a foot or two under the weight of small to medium missiles waiting to ruin the PLA's day. and it has already passed but the new law to build more U.S. chip production needs to implemented with all deliberate speed.

There needs to be a new law for dealing with nations that are hostile and untrustworthy, but too big to apply the current state sponsor of terrorism law too. The current law would require secondary sanctions on India and every third world nation that is buying Russian grain, oil, and fertilizer. That is simply impractical to do with Russia and China. What the law does need to do is make impossible the kind of elite capture that Londongrad represents to even be attempted. It should be illegal for any law firm, any lobbying firm, any bank, or any kind of advertising/public relations firm to do any business with Russia. Just make them AND THEIR MONEY absolutely persona non grata in elite circles. Do it to Russia and tell the Chinese to think real hard about if this where they want to go.

Couldn't agree more.

[G.I. Joe]

3 hours ago, danfrodo said:

OK OK, I admit that some planes are cool.  Especially P51s.  And spitfires.  and FW190s, ME109s.  And F4 phantoms.  And corsairs.  and P47 thunderbolts.  Oh, and stukas.  and B24s.  And zeros.  and of course P38s, super cool.  But other than those, planes are mostly just kinda cool.

Without wanting to derail too much...you have good taste in aircraft, and I'll gladly accept kinda cool.

In the L-19's case I might have to, seeing as its modern-day counterpart is more likely than not an $800 COTS quadcopter from Best Buy... 

[G.I. Joe]

On 8/5/2022 at 6:08 AM, Taranis said:

"A Ukrainian soldier launches a Polish reconnaissance drone in the kyiv region, August 2, 2022. EFREM LUKATSKY / AP"

Great photo... Flight Safety FOD awareness poster waiting to happen.

[Grigb]

I am slowly getting back. Here is interesting post from not Girkin style RU Nat assessing RU population mood. Keep in mind that this is pro-War RU Nat view. 

The post was a response to survey started by RU Nat reporter who asked whether hos audience supports the statement of RU member of parliament.

First post. I copied formatting from author.

Quote

Quite an interesting survey on military enlistments. Zhuravlev is trying to relay hate symbols. But the audience probably does not support these symbols. The problem is a little deeper than it seems. Hatred is an instrument of war. The mobilization of human hatred towards the enemy is the fuel for the social, economic and military mobilization of the people. And our society in this regard is still not mobilized yet. Even [this] specific [Nat] audience does not share this thesis "we will come and kill everyone", then representative polls [from whole country] will show the result even worse. Our society is not yet aware of the existential threat that the enemy has posed to Russian civilization. This is an alarming factor, it will affect everything, from the combat readiness of units on the front line, to the effectiveness of the work of rear services, volunteers and the state apparatus.

Second post.

Quote

In many respects, the frankly insufficient understanding of the level and scale of the threats of the started war is the fault of the inert and not unified state bureaucracy in its intentions.

With bureaucrats, everything is clear - they have property and children abroad, they have offshore companies and yachts there. They have a physical need to form a political regime in Russia that will allow them to reconcile with overseas patrons and regain their quality of life.

But ordinary citizens did not have anything of the above, and in the foreseeable future they will not have. And they are not aware of threats to their lives yet. This is also because propaganda and the Kremlin regularly send opposite ideological signals.

The Kremlin can also be understood, more [than] external defeat, the Kremlin is afraid of internal defeat. Covid and the 6-year economic crisis accumulated a lot of fatigue in society, and immediately after it the war began. The moods in society are different.

It is all the more dangerous for the Kremlin to see a truly mobilized Russian people in front of. After all, then he will ask not only for the [failure to get] victory. He will ask for the [failure of] rearmament of the army, for the failure of import substitution, for many other things he will ask. He will demand to punish the guilty.

Let me remind you that the two largest public requests: the nationalization of the property of oligarchs and getting rid of mass migration are not just not closed, but are not even discussed in particular. Naturally, the Kremlin does not want the awakening of the "deep people" [RU political meme - deep RU people are politically inactive now but potentially powerful masses from lower society levels. They considered to be RU Nats in mood and to be dangerous for Kremlin due to their poorness. The Kremlin uses this meme as scarecrow claiming that while Kremlin is bad the Deep people are much worse.]. It's enough for him to just open one eye.

At the front, it is especially noticeable that so far the Russian people are acting at 20% of their real potential.

But here's what's important for ordinary people to understand. In the United States, at the level of top officials of military and civilian departments, intentions to inflict a civilizational generational defeat on Russia have been confirmed. Generational defeat is the 90s. This means that all the little good things that have happened in 20 years will be reset, and they will force us to start all over again in conditions of anarchy, redistribution and left-liberal freedoms [hilarious claim given that vast majority of RU Nats are communist and USSR fan boyz, and the rest are those who do not mind it] plus regional separatism.

For each individual, this means that he will lose his relatively pleasant job, his cozy mortgage nest or house, that the comfort of our cities that has developed in recent years and the predictability of life will be destroyed again, and the credit card will have to be sold, and so on.

In the contradiction between foreign policy threats and domestic political fears, insufficient mobilization of society is born. That really threatens us with far-reaching consequences, from military risks to civil riots. Here everything is like in the old saying: "Choosing between war and shame, gets both war and shame."