How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

Small update - Girkin is silent regarding what is going on at frontline. RU Nats are discussing claim RU captured Partisanske (north of Kherson). It could serve as jumping point for RU new offensive to Mykolaev.

Also there discussions that UKR are unusually concentrating forces at Kharkiv direction (which can be described as Kharkiv-Izum direction as well) expecting UKR offensive there soon. Well, Girkin arty preparation could be RU counter-offensive fire.

[muso]

Thanks as always for your intelligent and enlightening posts, Grigb...
I just had to add this (perhaps you can find the original Russian?)

The ruling classes have in their hands the army, money, the schools, the churches, and the press. In the schools, they kindle patriotism in the children by means of histories describing their own people as the best of all peoples and always in the right. Among adults they kindle it by spectacles, jubilees, monuments, and by a lying patriotic press. Above all, they inflame patriotism in this way: perpetrating every kind of harshness and injustice against other nations, they provoke in them enmity towards their own people, and then in turn exploit that enmity to embitter their people against the foreigner.

      ~ Leo Tolstoy, Patriotism and Government, 1900.

So far have we come.

[Grigb]

Working on the map and parsing through the info (including new one). The interesting thing is that Pisky seems to be the only RU sort of success in the South direction of Donbass offensive.  While what happened in Pisky was dramatic what is happening elsewhere is different. In Avdyivka so far RU completely stalled outside of the settlement. In Maryinka they barely control 1/3 of the settlement. More like they contest it while UKR are holding firm important landfill of the Shchurovka mine that dominates whole southern part of the settlement.

[Taranis]

15 hours ago, OldSarge said:

I think that he is referring to a relative of the RT-61/MO-120 mortar.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortier_120mm_Rayé_Tracté_Modèle_F1

Apparently, the USMC used it for a bit, here you can see the rifling.

and the barrel..

Yes that's the one I was referring to.

@Vet 0369

The 120mm RTF-1 = Rayé, Tracté Modèle F-1 (stands for Rifled, Towed, Model F-1). Its role is almost that of a howitzer because it serves as specialized artillery (no longer attributed to the infantry but to the artillery) and serves to fill the absence of fire support at "short" range where the CAESAR is long range. Its rifles turning to the right gives it better stability and above all a derivation of the shell (we are talking about shells like a cannon, OE-120 = Obus Explosif 120mm (means Explosive Shell 120mm)) known, which makes it easier to calculate.

120mm and CAESAR mortars are still paired in the French army. A gunner knows how to use a CAESAR as well as a 120mm mortar. In general, during deployments of a battery, one of the two platoons uses the CAESAR, the other the 120mm mortar. Conversely, in Afghanistan for example, our platoon being often in a rather defensive role had both mortars and CAESARs in the FOB and used one or the other depending on the distance.

Edited August 7, 2022 by Taranis

[Huba]

40 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Yes that's the one I was referring to.

@Vet 0369

The 120mm RTF-1 = Rayé, Tracté Modèle F-1 (stands for Rifled, Towed, Model F-1). Its role is almost that of a howitzer because it serves as specialized artillery (no longer attributed to the infantry but to the artillery) and serves to fill the absence of fire support at "short" range where the CAESAR is long range. Its rifles turning to the right gives it better stability and above all a derivation of the shell (we are talking about shells like a cannon, OE-120 = Obus Explosif 120mm (means Explosive Shell 120mm)) known, which makes it easier to calculate.

120mm and CAESAR mortars are still paired in the French army. A gunner knows how to use a CAESAR as well as a 120mm mortar. In general, during deployments of a battery, one of the two platoons uses the CAESAR, the other the 120mm mortar. Conversely, in Afghanistan for example, our platoon being often in a rather defensive role had both mortars and CAESARs in the FOB and used one or the other depending on the distance.

RU army uses rifled „gun-howitzer-mortars” and is afaik quite fond of them. It is an ordnance used by the rare but fascinating 2S31 Vena and 2S34 Westa, and the older 2S9 Nona. There are also towed versions of these (for sure of Vena gun) called 2B16. These are breech loaded obviously, and apart from mortar bombs capable of firing „regular” shells, in case of Vena up to 12km. There are guided shells for them too, probably not that numerous.

Overall these look like extremely capable systems. Lack the simplicity of regular mortar of course, but if we are doing breech loading and turret, this approach makes much more sense than sticking with smoothbore IMO.

[Huba]

Manure storm around Amnesty is reaching hurricane status. Earlier this year, it’s infamous CEO was sharing articles by some RU nat, who openly states that whole CEE should be Russian. I really try to stick to the rule of not looking for malice where ignorance or stupidity can be use to explain ppl actions, but this lady really seems to have a political agenda:

 

Edited August 7, 2022 by Huba

[FancyCat]

Canada, now Sweden. Interesting to see NATO integration working rn.

 

[Huba]

11 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Canada, now Sweden. Interesting to see NATO integration working rn.

 

Also according to the article, there will be a conference in Copenhagen on Thursday, where some NATO-wide program of weapons production for UA will be discussed. I’m really starting to think that this will indeed be a long war (1 more year perhaps), with UA gradually becoming more powerful and RU growing weaker. And when RU collapses, it will be on Iraqi level.

[Calamine Waffles]

This was fairly interesting:

Quote

The most "exotic" story is precisely about the restoration of BMP-1AM "Basurmanin". Judging by everything, the same machine that set a new record for "turret throwing" during the detonation fell into the hands of "Holodnoyarivets".

The Rembat showed miracles of optimism and discovered that the tower was still completely suitable for restoration after such an explosion. To restore the mechanisms of the tower, the "Holodnoyarivets" used components from the BTR-82, "borrowed" from the neighbors. And then - the fighters of the 93rd brigade are waiting for the "extra" chassis from the BMP-1 from other "neighbors" in order to finally restore the "Basurmanin" BMP in a "complete" form.

Quote

As early as March 2022, the soldiers of the 93rd Brigade began to receive enemy equipment that had problems with gearboxes, and the gearboxes were without oil. This indicates that even then the Rashists began to send uncanned equipment into battle against the Armed Forces, which, however, the Orcs themselves threw away due to frequent breakdowns.

 

https://defence--ua-com.translate.goog/army_and_war/skilki_chasu_potribno_na_vidnovlennja_trofejnoji_tehniki_i_jak_v_poljah_znajti_defitsitni_zapchastini-8442.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

Edited August 7, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, Huba said:

Manure storm around Amnesty is reaching hurricane status. Earlier this year, it’s infamous CEO was sharing articles by some RU nat, who openly states that whole CEE should be Russian. I really try to stick to the rule of not looking for malice where ignorance or stupidity can be use to explain ppl actions, but this lady really seems to have a political agenda:

I am not certain if this is meagre matter; AI is widely recognized corporation (sorry, "NGO"  ), especially in the international intellectual circles. Their reports may have some influence on wider public when Winter comes, so they should be double cautious writing about this war. Thus question: agents or just useful fools, is still very valid one. I believe the latter is the case here, sprinkled with organizational inertia.

Situtaion with Amnesty is peculiar. I worked with them for short time in the past, and can say that while regional branches (CEE, Caucasian, etc.) are usually more or less ok, the higher one goes to the top, the stronger anti-western sentiment becomes apparent. It comes both from organizational issues (a lot of normal people left the AI because of its more and more resembling  big corpo with focus on universalistic, objectified "effects") as well as background of people working in NGO's sector in general. Russian intelligence does not need to groom them on its own; their views are already shaped by networks of various student organizations, NGO's and social circles. For example to climb to the top of "profesionall" hierarchy in Amnesty International, one needs a serious backup by different nets of other actors, and their agenda is far from objective.

There is an issue with many large organizations of this type- when they grow large, they loose contact with local problems and start to miss contexts. Another big issue is of course what they actually "produce"-AI harvest a lot of money worldwide, but unlike in real corporations, real "profits" of their work are debatable at least. Unless somebody recognize as such such activities as  writing letters, spreading information or organizing happenings.

{EDIT} Kremlin propaganda working hard to make AI report known. We can safely say they participate in Russianw ar effort now, inlcuding targeting of cities with "precision" strikes.

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1556240417917747203

Reportedly, a video from "Republic bridge" position in Pisky.

https://twitter.com/TSzulc_/status/1556174152620441600

 

Edited August 7, 2022 by Beleg85

[akd]

Ouch:

 

Edited August 7, 2022 by akd

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Maj. Beslan Bachaev, 64th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade:

 

[Calamine Waffles]

AGM-88 HARM has entered the chat:
https://man.fas.org/dod-101/sys/smart/agm-88.htm

Quote

Fins. The BSU-60/B and BSU-60A/B fins are identical type fins except for a redesigned locking mechanism. They are interchangeable as sets. The fins provide aerodynamic stability of the HARM Missile during flight.

 

[FancyCat]

 

[Calamine Waffles]

Ground launching air-launched ARMs is not unprecedented:

[Huba]

Wonder what the range could be for ground launched version? AIM-120 gets only about 25km, perhaps a bit more is achievable in dive against ground targets.  Would be useful against the various SHORADS, maybe even forward based Buks and CB radars. Another nail to RU coffin is being hammered in

[Calamine Waffles]

The range for ground-launched Standard ARM was described as "several dozen km", which has a 90 km range when air-launched. HARM has an air-launched range > 111 km.

[Beleg85]

Tranlation of one of Murz's rants from Dmitriy. You will like it:

https://wartranslated.com/lpr-volunteer-and-blogger-murz-describes-the-state-of-radio-comms-in-the-republics-as-apocalyptic/

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Calamine Waffles said:

AGM-88 HARM has entered the chat:
https://man.fas.org/dod-101/sys/smart/agm-88.htm

 

For last 3-4 days General Staff reported about destroying of 17 SAM launchers and radars, mostly on Kherson direction. Looks like at least a part of such results can be explained with HARMs  

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Col. Kanat Mukatov, deputy commander of 20th Guard Motor Rifle Division (confirming that basically the entire senior command staff of the Division was killed in the HIMARS strike on July 9th):

Lt. Col. Vitaly Tsikul, unknown unit:

FSB Spetsnaz Lt. Col. Nikolai Gorban, 4th Branch of the First Department of the FSB Special Operation Directorate:

 

[danfrodo]

7 hours ago, Grigb said:

Small update - Girkin is silent regarding what is going on at frontline. RU Nats are discussing claim RU captured Partisanske (north of Kherson). It could serve as jumping point for RU new offensive to Mykolaev.

Also there discussions that UKR are unusually concentrating forces at Kharkiv direction (which can be described as Kharkiv-Izum direction as well) expecting UKR offensive there soon. Well, Girkin arty preparation could be RU counter-offensive fire.

well, Dan/CA will get a gold star if it turns out that Kharkiv is the real offensive.  I think he's the one that suggested hitting there once RU moved all its forces west.  So where would RU get forces to bolster Kharkiv?  And what would UKR objectives be?   Might be just to get RU forces out of arty range of the city.  Maybe they have big plan to take Kupyansk and totally unhinge a huge section of the front.

Kherson would still happen I would think, just at a slower pace.  the one thing that we can safely say is that UKR now acts and RU reacts.

[Huba]

16 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

well, Dan/CA will get a gold star if it turns out that Kharkiv is the real offensive.  I think he's the one that suggested hitting there once RU moved all its forces west.  So where would RU get forces to bolster Kharkiv?  And what would UKR objectives be?   Might be just to get RU forces out of arty range of the city.  Maybe they have big plan to take Kupyansk and totally unhinge a huge section of the front.

Kherson would still happen I would think, just at a slower pace.  the one thing that we can safely say is that UKR now acts and RU reacts.

It was moi, we were discussing it with Steve who was opposed to the idea. DefMon also tweeted it at one point. 

TBH at this point I think UA will still be stalling and won't commit fully for a bit, instead continuing shaping operations and doing opportunistic advances wherever possible. 

And then reversed The Battle of The Sudden Flame will happen, UA will unleash ATACMS, F-16s and NASAMS, drive the orcs back and besiege Sevastopol

Edited August 7, 2022 by Huba

[sburke]

seems there was another shake up in command.

Quote

The poor performance of Russia’s armed forces during its invasion of Ukraine appears to have led to a shakeup in command, the British Defense Ministry said Sunday. Gen. Aleksandr Vladimirovich Dvornikov, who had been charged with overall command of the operation in Ukraine, was removed from his post last week, the ministry said. General-Colonel Aleksandr Zhuravlev, who had commanded Russia's Western Military District since 2018, was absent from Russia’s Navy Day in St Petersburg a week ago and has likely been replaced, the ministry said in its assessment of the war.  Another general was relieved of command of Southern Grouping Forces, the ministry said.

 

3 Russian generals sacked as military struggles; more grain shipments leave Ukraine ports: Live updates (msn.com)

Edited August 7, 2022 by sburke

[Haiduk]

7 hours ago, Grigb said:

RU Nats are discussing claim RU captured Partisanske (north of Kherson)

Yesterday they claimed initially "assault of Blahodatne, which will open the way to Partyzanske and after it will be free road to Mykolaiv by the forces of 108th air-assault regiment of 7th air-assault division ". Today our General Staff reported about unsuccsessful Russian attempt of advance from Vasyl'ky to Blahodatne and Russian propagandists changed own mind "we didn't assault Blahodatne, just artillery is bombarding it". 

I wonder, for example, Deepstate map shows Blahodatne like occupied by Russians. LiveUAmap, as controlled by UKR. Deepstate usually more accurate. Also Blahodatne and Partyzanske divided by irrigation canal. The bridge through the canal lays in Zasillia village, 8 km west from Blahodatne, so Russians should to attack in that direction. Or to use some engineer bridge vehicles for crossing the canal to develop own hypothetical success toward Partyzanske

DefMon map for illustration

[danfrodo]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

It was moi, we were discussing it with Steve who was opposed to the idea. DefMon also tweeted it at one point. 

TBH at this point I think UA will still be stalling and won't commit fully for a bit, instead continuing shaping operations and doing opportunistic advances wherever possible. 

And then reversed The Battle of The Sudden Flame will happen, UA will unleash ATACMS, F-16s and NASAMS, drive the orcs back and besiege Sevastopol

My apologies, Huba.  You will get the gold star if major Kharkiv offensive occurs, not the dapper & dastardly Dan/CA.

Sebastopol?  -- Now you are really getting optimistic!