How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

More Tochkas? Suicide drone? Also, damn, Ukraine is hitting really deep. In the tweet below, they are not saying HIMARS, but the name of the plant. random replies say it can't be HIMARS since the noise is too slow but I know nothing about that. 

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/25-june-explosions-near-snizhne

 

 

 

 

[Kinophile]

@ 1:05 especially.

[Machor]

BBC coverage of the International Legion - don't miss the Taiwanese soldier, and the dissatisfied Canuck with Beretta MG 42/59:

 

[Machor]

Russia on brink of default as debt deadline looms

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61929926

"Russia is on the brink of its first debt default since 1998 as the Sunday deadline to make a $100m interest payment seems certain to be missed.

Russia has the money and is willing to pay, but sanctions make it impossible to get the payments to international creditors.

The Kremlin has been determined to avoid a first default since 1998, and a major blow to the nation's prestige.

The Russian finance minister branded the situation "a farce".

Russia has seemed on an inevitable path to default since sanctions were first imposed by the US and EU following the invasion of Ukraine. These restricted the country's access to the international banking networks which would process payments from Russia to investors around the world."

"Though default would be a symbolic blow, it would have few immediate practical consequences for Russia.

Defaulting nations usually find it impossible to borrow any more money, but Russia is already effectively barred from borrowing in Western markets by sanctions.

In any case, it is reportedly earning around a billion dollars a day from fossil fuel exports, and Siluanov said in April the country has no plans to borrow more."

[Combatintman]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

even God is messing with Russians.

Putin's Top Priest Collapses During Russian Church Ceremony (msn.com)

Tracking the clergy now?

[sburke]

22 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Tracking the clergy now?

yeah unfortunately he survived the fall.  Guess even Satan didn't want him

[paxromana]

Just now, sburke said:

yeah unfortunately he survived the fall.  Guess even Satan didn't want him

Or maybe he figures he can do more harm where he is?

[billbindc]

41 minutes ago, Machor said:

Russia on brink of default as debt deadline looms

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61929926

"Russia is on the brink of its first debt default since 1998 as the Sunday deadline to make a $100m interest payment seems certain to be missed.

Russia has the money and is willing to pay, but sanctions make it impossible to get the payments to international creditors.

The Kremlin has been determined to avoid a first default since 1998, and a major blow to the nation's prestige.

The Russian finance minister branded the situation "a farce".

Russia has seemed on an inevitable path to default since sanctions were first imposed by the US and EU following the invasion of Ukraine. These restricted the country's access to the international banking networks which would process payments from Russia to investors around the world."

"Though default would be a symbolic blow, it would have few immediate practical consequences for Russia.

Defaulting nations usually find it impossible to borrow any more money, but Russia is already effectively barred from borrowing in Western markets by sanctions.

In any case, it is reportedly earning around a billion dollars a day from fossil fuel exports, and Siluanov said in April the country has no plans to borrow more."

It should be noted that default has already been priced in the immediate term. The long range effects will be quite serious but we shouldn't expect a significant effect right away.

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Combatintman said:

Tracking the clergy now?

Clergy in Russia are military, high rank FSB officers. Always was - since Stalin founded russian church in 1943 and placed top NKVD staff in charge of it.

So if Kirill was to get his head smashed as he slipped on that holy water - that's another dead general.

Edited June 26, 2022 by kraze

[FancyCat]

Apparently, last night in Moscow, Putin was spotted heading into the Kremlin, perhaps he was greenlighting this morning's missiles? Also, what a bastard, bombing residential blocks. 

 

 

[danfrodo]

9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

According to information of UKR military expert Konstantin Mashovets, obviously after command from Kremlin, two Belarusian air-assault battalions of 38th air-assault brigade moved from Brest area to Grodno area - opposite the "Suwalky gap"

I wonder if Putin's purpose w this is to scare Lithuania and Poland into sending less weapons to Ukraine.  I very very much doubt it will have any effect other than to increase support for Ukraine. 

Yes, please send two Belarus battalions to take on NATO.  One step across the border and there'd be the biggest air show imaginable coming down on them.  So, yes, please, we're calling your bluff.

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

More Tochkas? Suicide drone? Also, damn, Ukraine is hitting really deep. In the tweet below, they are not saying HIMARS, but the name of the plant. random replies say it can't be HIMARS since the noise is too slow but I know nothing about that. 

https://liveuamap.com/en/2022/25-june-explosions-near-snizhne

 

 

 

 

By deeply he means a solid 100 km from the front line. That is beyond the posted range of M30/M31 GMLRS by a good ten or fifteen kilometers. And I DO NOT think they brought the launcher within 10k of the front line. So either GMLRS really does have a lot more range than listed, or the Ukrainians were using something else. 

[MikeyD]

It would be a daring ploy but I could imagine Ukraine doing a rush forward to strike as deeply as humanly possible for the morale effect (good for them, bad for Russia), then quickly scooting back to safety. You wouldn't want to try that trick too often, though.

I recall that well know artillery strike on a HQ gathering some weeks back was on a facility the Russians had thought was outside artillery range. Ukraine had rushed their artillery assets quickly up to the front to get within range.

[Grigb]

Izum. UKR strike at RU temporal base. RU claims it was HIMARS

 

[EDIT] This is interesting example how RU propaganda incites hatred toward AFU among RU-speaking population. According to RU claims the above is hospital to treat civilians.

Edited June 26, 2022 by Grigb

[Aragorn2002]

3 hours ago, sburke said:

yeah unfortunately he survived the fall.  Guess even Satan didn't want him

Yeah, pity the bastard didn't break his neck. High time that God starts to mess with those servants of Lucifer.

[kraze]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

This is interesting example how RU propaganda incites hatred toward AFU among RU-speaking population. According to RU claims the above is hospital to treat civilians.

It incites hatred alright, but not for the reasons you think it does. Russians couldn't care less even if it was a hospital for civilians. But they look at that building... and then look outside. In fact claiming that a 'hospital for civilians' in some provincial Ukrainian city dares to look like that is an offense just as deeply insulting as Ukraine having middle class.

Edited June 26, 2022 by kraze

[beardiebloke]

[Edit: forgot to share the alarming headline]
 

Russia promises Belarus Iskander-M nuclear-capable missiles

At Saturday's televised meeting with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko in St Petersburg, Mr Putin said: "We have made a decision: within the next few months we will hand over to Belarus the Iskander-M tactical missile systems."

...

Speaking in St Petersburg, Mr Putin said Russia would help to modify Belarusian SU-25 warplanes so that they could carry nuclear weapons, in response to a query from Mr Lukashenko.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61938111

Maybe I missed it but the article doesn't explicitly say they are sending nuclear warheads, just that they are nuclear capable.  If it's supposed to be a nuclear deterrent surely you would show off the warheads ?  Also would they want to send that stuff to what might turn out to be an unstable government?

Edited June 26, 2022 by beardiebloke

[Combatintman]

9 minutes ago, beardiebloke said:

[Edit: forgot to share the alarming headline]
 

Russia promises Belarus Iskander-M nuclear-capable missiles

At Saturday's televised meeting with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko in St Petersburg, Mr Putin said: "We have made a decision: within the next few months we will hand over to Belarus the Iskander-M tactical missile systems."

...

Speaking in St Petersburg, Mr Putin said Russia would help to modify Belarusian SU-25 warplanes so that they could carry nuclear weapons, in response to a query from Mr Lukashenko.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61938111

Maybe I missed it but the article doesn't explicitly say they are sending nuclear warheads, just that they are nuclear capable.  If it's supposed to be a nuclear deterrent surely you would show off the warheads ?  Also would they want to send that stuff to what might turn out to be an unstable government?

I would say that supplying nuclear weapons to Belarus is unlikely - it contravenes various nuclear proliferation treaties/conventions which I doubt Russia would contemplate given all of the other sanctions it is already under.  This is more of the same in terms of fairly empty threats to exert pressure in the Baltic.

[beardiebloke]

2 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

I would say that supplying nuclear weapons to Belarus is unlikely - it contravenes various nuclear proliferation treaties/conventions which I doubt Russia would contemplate given all of the other sanctions it is already under.  This is more of the same in terms of fairly empty threats to exert pressure in the Baltic.

Indeed, can you imagine if they did this and then the government falls?  Reminds me of a tweet I saw this morning along the lines of "don't believe anything until the Kremlin denies it".

[kraze]

10 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

I would say that supplying nuclear weapons to Belarus is unlikely - it contravenes various nuclear proliferation treaties/conventions which I doubt Russia would contemplate given all of the other sanctions it is already under.  This is more of the same in terms of fairly empty threats to exert pressure in the Baltic.

Belarus is de facto a part of Russia already. Lukashenko at this point is very much a willing, but secondary, co-criminal that just gets to keep his duchy for not getting in the way and reading from a script once in a while.

Of course nuclear capable Iskanders in there are just an empty threat - but only because they may easily be used by Lukashenko himself or any other guy in his place to protect Belarus from Russia. If Belarus is to become part of Russia de jure - then there will be no problemo.

It's not like putin or russians care about sanctions at this point, they are in a full berserk mode and can't see the forest behind the trees.

Edited June 26, 2022 by kraze

[Combatintman]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

It's not like putin or russians care about sanctions at this point, they are in a full berserk mode and can't see the forest behind the trees.

Going to try using some facts to justify that statement?  Nuclear proliferation is a big threshold to cross.

[Grigb]

27 minutes ago, kraze said:

It incites hatred alright, but not for the reasons you think it does. Russians couldn't care less even if it was a hospital for civilians. But they look at that building... and then look outside. In fact claiming that a 'hospital for civilians' in some provincial Ukrainian city dares to look like that is an offense just as deeply insulting as Ukraine having middle class.

It is an incorrect assessment. Respectfully disagree. 

[kraze]

1 minute ago, Combatintman said:

Going to try using some facts to justify that statement?  Nuclear proliferation is a big threshold to cross.

No problem - there are nukes in Crimea. Since 2014. Nobody cared up until this year.

[chuckdyke]

1 minute ago, Combatintman said:

Nuclear proliferation is a big threshold to cross.

If he is on borrowed time, I don't think he cares. Most of us can't follow putin, I would do something different if I were worth $70 Billion and I am only a few years older. The only conclusion I can make is that the man is a lunatic and a dangerous one. The threat that London is the first to go may not be an empty one. All what the west can do is reply in kind. 

[kraze]

8 minutes ago, Grigb said:

It is an incorrect assessment. Respectfully disagree. 

One of the reasons russians were extremely brutal in Bucha is because they encountered something they don't have at home - middle class living alright. In fact they spray painted "who allowed you to live this good?" on one of the buildings.

Us already living much better than them, despite being under their occupation just 30 years ago and despite all their "resources" - is one of the major reasons the war began in 2014. Russians are very envious bunch.

Edited June 26, 2022 by kraze