beardiebloke

Not convinced this will make any difference whatsoever but I would take it as a sign that the BSF isn't doing so well. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/11/kremlin-declines-to-comment-if-naval-chief-sacked

Saw this and thought it was pretty wild. Drone fitted with a really long spool of fiber optic cable to avoid EW. Obvious practical issues but if the distance is not so great it should work. https://www.threads.net/@maks_23_ua/post/C4N23bHKkBN

There was at least one incident but it doesn't seem very common. It's been discussed here but I struggle to find the posts. I think this is the one I remember from last year around Andriivka.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/12/17/ukraine-starts-mass-production-of-750-km-range-kamikaze-drones/ Not sure why kind of explosive payload but I guess they can mix it up easily enough as it's all domestic production.

Interview with a civilian volunteer who builds/organises/flies drones. Autotranslate does an OK job but there's one word "RETRIK"? that I'ld like to understand. I think a lot of context is lost on me - how many like him are there? How many volunteer groups supply the front with FPVs. He shares some very frank opinions about government/military procurement.

Just saw this UGV announced... https://www.kyivpost.com/post/23189 This particular weapon is probably not a game changer... I mean the flying FPV drones seem very effective already. Perhaps these are cheaper? Carry more? I think in the future you can only prepare your drone forces based on best guesses about what you will face. Then when your plans collide with reality, strong domestic adaptable means of production will become crucial.

English version of the infographic here: https://t.me/uawarinfographics/2874?comment=25382 Also curious of the source but a good sign even if it's only roughly correct. A month old Reuters article quoting a "Western official": https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-ramps-up-artillery-production-still-falling-short-western-official-says-2023-09-09/ If we assume production of 1-2m shells per year then any usage above 5500/day means your stocks disappear and eventually reach 5500/day *assuming* you produce 2m per year *and* get them to the front where they are actually fired. Just my amateur back of envelope take.

https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/urban-warfare-project/id1490714950?i=1000629620464 A few pages ago folks were talking about the lack of basements in CM... this podcast covers some of the issues. It touches on a lot of topics but not overly in depth, I thought it's a nice a food-for-thought episode. One of the themes was that a less technologically advanced combatant can try to level the playing field through the use of tunnels and subterranean structures, but not the other way around. If drones level the ISR playing field enough perhaps it would pay for western armies to think about how they can dig deep, if they haven't already.

And for drones too when you look at daily number as a percentage of the total! Which just makes the remaining artillery pieces less effective if it carries on.

Should have been more clear. By GPS I meant that now bombers have GPS so no longer need to use lights on the ground and dead reckoning to navigate so folks can be complacent about wartime light pollution. I have vague memories of blackout drills when I was growing up in Seoul in the late 70s/early 80s, possibly for this reason. At the front where it matters more I suspect RU will be more sensible, but that shoreline doesn't look like a country on a proper war footing.

Did you mean that the big light "behind" the ship was the moon? It looks like three very bright light sources on the ship as the drone gets closer. Even without a full-ish moon the coastline appears so well lit up that this looks like a hard target to miss. If those ship lights were there to help spot drones ... well, not very effective without an alert watch. Light pollution isn't only bad for astronomers. With all the GPS etc I imagine old skool blackout curtains and light curfew doesn't happen anymore.

No sound? RU may have finally attrited UKR's supply of irrelevant music clips. This marks the end.

This broadens the criteria for "Russia winning" a great deal. Anything short of Russia not comprehensively losing and starting to behave itself could be considered "Russia winning". As for time running out, it appears more likely if you extrapolate the speed of the counteroffensive based on what we've seen in the last few weeks/months, but far less likely if you anticipate a slow-then-quick bankruptcy style decline it RU's capabilities. I cautiously favour the latter. If this does turn into a Korean style stalemate, then it will be relative stability that matters. It would suck but life could go on in relative peace.

So all the discussion about blowing up/repairing the Kerch Bridge was a waste of time if RU can't even get there anymore?!?!

Don't get me wrong, it would suck... a lot. But whatever they achieve wouldn't last forever and have no impact on the war.