How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Lukeshanka activates again. During meeting with Putin in Petersburg, during traditional rants about West, Luka stated that Lithuania "blocking" Kaliningrad is in fact declaration of war. There are also treats of placing Iskander missiles in Belarus and most importantly using country territory as a place of storage for nuclear weapons.

This joined with recent strikes and informations about Belarusian army giving its ammo stockpiles to Russians seems to indicate Lukashenka position himself before new NATO summit as "anti-NATO" axis together with Russia. Putin swallows Bielarus slowly but consequently, and Lukashenka try to manouvre.

Rather pathetic and entirely expected. The news about nuclear weapons are there probably to scare the West.

 

According to information of UKR military expert Konstantin Mashovets, obviously after command from Kremlin, two Belarusian air-assault battalions of 38th air-assault brigade moved from Brest area to Grodno area - opposite the "Suwalky gap"

Meanwhile Lithuanian Europarliament deputy Piatras Aushtryavichus concerned that "Russia is winning in the question of Kaliningrad transit". As he claimed after "representatives of one country demanded to cancel transit sanctions, in European Committee, sharp discussions started and there is no unity in this question". As a result the document appeared, which allows transit of sanctioned goods between Kaliningrad and Russian by the territory of EU. Lithuania doesn't meant in the document, but if Lithuania will agree with document it have to fulfil its terms. Document will be issued on next week. Lithuanian deputy claimed some EU countries dissatisfied with Lithuanian position.

[Letter from Prague]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Soooo... if Lithuania demanded it be allowed to send stuff, including weapons, through Belarus to Ukraine and Lukashenko refused... act of war?

Sorry bub, transiting stuff through someone else's territory is one of those things that the owner of said territory has a choice about.  Which is why you are supposed to be NICE to your neighbors.

Steve

But look at it from Russian point of view: Lithuania is obviously Russian territory. But it is full of uppity non-Russian serfs who should know their place, but instead they resist and pretend they have a country! The audacity! 

14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Meanwhile Lithuanian Europarliament deputy Piatras Aushtryavichus concerned that "Russia is winning in the question of Kaliningrad transit". As he claimed after "representatives of one country demanded to cancel transit sanctions, in European Committee, sharp discussions started and there is no unity in this question". As a result the document appeared, which allows transit of sanctioned goods between Kaliningrad and Russian by the territory of EU. Lithuania doesn't meant in the document, but if Lithuania will agree with document it have to fulfil its terms. Document will be issued on next week. Lithuanian deputy claimed some EU countries dissatisfied with Lithuanian position.

I'm curious how that would work. Lithuania is currently enforcing the EU sanctions. But as Steve said, they can also chose to close borders however they want - there are limits within the EU, but I'm pretty sure they don't owe Russia or Belarus access. They could actually turn it into a fully closed border and if Russia calls that blockade and wants to test Article 5, they can (we know they won't).

[Artkin]

Wasn't Lukashenko afraid of being integrated back into Russia? Why does he think helping them will prevent that?

[Holien]

11 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Wasn't Lukashenko afraid of being integrated back into Russia? Why does he think helping them will prevent that?

Better the Devil you know?

Rock and a hard place.... If Russia collaspes he goes too...

[Artkin]

1 minute ago, Holien said:

Better the Devil you know?

Rock and a hard place.... If Russia collaspes he goes too...

What's the backstory with Belarus though? No amnesty for them? Do they have historical issues with their neighbors? I don't know

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, Artkin said:

What's the backstory with Belarus though? No amnesty for them? Do they have historical issues with their neighbors? I don't know

Lukashenko has been in power for decades. He is a classic autocratic strongman. But he has never had the raw military power to threaten anyone outside his borders, and has mostly had the sense not to try. Until about 18 months ago he has played a high wire act between Putin and the EU and really did have almost absolute power in Belarus. But his last attempt at a managed election blew up in his face and a full bore "color revolution" got going. There were 100,000s of protesters in in Minsk screaming for him to leave. He was only able to hang on with massive Russian assistance. That assistance has essentially made him Putin's vassal. This allowed Putin to essentially station Russian troops anywhere he wanted to in Belarus. The attack on Kyiv was based from there.

The only thing he hasn't done exactly according to Putin's orders is actually commit his army to the war in Ukraine. He hasn't done that because the only two possible results are his army rebels and replaces him, or surrenders in mass. He leaned a little too hard into being sure his army could  not replace him. It turns out they are not capable of much else either.

The latest wrinkle is reports of him putting actual Russian officers in important position in his military. Which I suspect means it will eventually try to do something. Every evaluation of if the Belarus military I have read though says it will fail miserably at whatever it does try. Also multiple reports that Belarus is shipping all its artillery ammo to the Donbas front for the Russians to use. Which may mean that the aforementioned newly installed Russian officers wrote back to Moscow that trying to get the Belarusians to do anything was not going to go well.

[JonS]

4 hours ago, hcrof said:

It looks like they will only get 3 weeks training in the UK - I am not sure how much they can learn in that time? I mean it is great that the UK is offering training, but is it not better to have a more stability rather than getting flown out of basic training for 3 weeks in a foreign country? 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-offer-major-training-programme-for-ukrainian-forces-as-prime-minister-hails-their-victorious-determination

Depends what they're being trained on/as.

Rifleman? Forget it - may as well stay in west Ukraine

Equipment maintainer? Intelligence operator? Comms specialist? Now you're talking. Three weeks won't provide deep and broad generalist training, but it is enough to learn to do one thing well.

Edited June 25, 2022 by JonS

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Lukashenko has been in power for decades. He is a classic autocratic strongman. But he has never had the raw military power to threaten anyone outside his borders, and has mostly had the sense not to try. Until about 18 months ago he has played a high wire act between Putin and the EU and really did have almost absolute power in Belarus. But his last attempt at a managed election blew up in his face and a full bore "color revolution" got going. There were 100,000s of protesters in in Minsk screaming for him to leave. He was only able to hang on with massive Russian assistance. That assistance has essentially made him Putin's vassal. This allowed Putin to essentially station Russian troops anywhere he wanted to in Belarus. The attack on Kyiv was based from there.

The only thing he hasn't done exactly according to Putin's orders is actually commit his army to the war in Ukraine. He hasn't done that because the only two possible results are his army rebels and replaces him, or surrenders in mass. He leaned a little too hard into being sure his army could  not replace him. It turns out they are not capable of much else either.

The latest wrinkle is reports of him putting actual Russian officers in important position in his military. Which I suspect means it will eventually try to do something. Every evaluation of if the Belarus military I have read though says it will fail miserably at whatever it does try. Also multiple reports that Belarus is shipping all its artillery ammo to the Donbas front for the Russians to use. Which may mean that the aforementioned newly installed Russian officers wrote back to Moscow that trying to get the Belarusians to do anything was not going to go well.

That is more or less his stance in this war. Several things worth adding to answer Artkin question:

1. Belarus has no formal beef with it neighours, but Lukashenka pretends Poles try to invade it all the time. Nobody normal buy this nonsense, but this fear is useful to keep steady low support level among older homo sovieticii. His last (and up to date-the best) rant was about hungry Poles and Lithuanians standing next to border roads and asking Belarusian truckers for food.

2. Lukashenka mythos of power is kind of old-style Soviet agricultural utopia, with potatoes, vegetables and milk as most precious commodities in the country. You can see what he gave to V.V. Putin during one of his visits, photo below. He also famously feed Steven Seagal with carrots from his own garden.

3. Unlike rebelious, "Cossack" Ukrainians, Belarus is landlocked, rather poor country of generally passive population (well, at least passive until 2020). But it will be crucial in near future for NATO and Russia. Once Ukraine will go West, Belarus will be giant wedge sorrounded from 3 sides by NATO or NATO-cooperating states.

4. Putin is very keen on absorbing Belarus into Union State- old idea from Soviet times, with Belarus as one of socialists Soviet Republics. Lukashenka need to navigate very skillfully between Russians, opposition, his own disgruntled society and his own apparatus. He need to accept Putin dominance, but not too much. Also despite his propaganda and brutal crack on opposition 2 years ago, society is apathetic, more and more dissatisfied with old Baćka. But barely anybody in Belarus want to "come back" to Russia again, so him pretending being "shield" against Russians taking over the country is last hope for real domestic support.

Paradoxically, this is Lukashenka's card against Putin- if Russia will push too hard, his own society might rebell and this is last thing Putin wants now.

5.Growing opposition is another factor. More and more young and well educated Belarussians migrated abroad. Diaspora is almost entirely pro-western, it's mentally very different generation. They have internationally recognized leaders, funcioning structures and nascent military cadres now fighting in Ukraine as volunteers (different estimates as to numbers, but I think there may even be ~1000 of them now).

 

Edited June 25, 2022 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

@Battlefront.com

Here is some recommendations from UKR frontline soldier for your collection

ATTENTION TO ALL, WHO FIRST TIME COMES TO EASTERN FRONT

1. Enemy has significant advantage in aviation and artillery.

2. There are no more stupid conscripts, but really trainned murderers, whick know own work

3. Our positions have been betraying by locals and drones ajust fire

4. Vehicles are target #1

RECOMMENDAIONS FOR DOGFACE

1. Dig in deep, but never wide.

2. Dig in in the places with additional protection (tree) or with obstacles for enemy artillery (hill,railwau embarkment)

3. Dig several positions, join its after in the trench (if enemy allow you to do this)

4. Do not concentrate many people in one shelter - no more 2-3

5. For rest and cover to dig a grave. Yes, a grave with steps (on the photo) for two. While the first on position, the second rests in the grave, then change.

6. Evacuation point must be maximally hidden, to make a pathway and the hole for aid. In the hole only combat medic have to work, you shouldn't be there.

7. Do not bring with you neither too much ammunitions nor any other supply - its betrays you. Get out the trash - bury even cigarette butts.

8. Prepare good off-road jeep, take away all superflous, take away lights and give NV device to the driver. Let he stays in 5 km from your positions. This will save most of your WIAs.

9. Ammunition and supply delivers when jeep drives to take WIAs or if you have a need in resupply. Two days reserve of ammunition and supply for comany have to be always near the jeep. 

10. BMPs and BTRs are also have to be in the rear, dug in deeply and disguished or hidden. They drive to the battle only and dont's carry people! Your trucks you can shot out yourself, thus will be less victims. But better hand over its to artillerists. 

11. Comms, steady encriptes comms and interaction with tanks and artillery. Infantry finds targets, recons ajust arty with drones, arty fires. But artillerists are people too and they also primary target for the enemy. They will not stand-by continuously and they also have a limit of ammunition and supply. 

12. Do not deploy on infantry positions ATGMs or MANPADs. Deployits aside or behind, but never on positions. If this stuff works at least once, your position will grounded.  

13. Most important!!!! The time for supply it's twilight (dawn or dusk). Safe time you will understand yourself.  And do this with jeeps with engine volume no more 2,5 l

14. Despite on written above, the war is dictating own rules. At this war the best are speed and mobility. And remember - they don't know how much of you, until you expose yourself. And during this time eliminate as more of orcs as possible, while they will be probe. Best way - to shot, when you see the enemy, and not hear his bullets. In this way they check your nerves. When the come close, try to kill as more as possible in order they will not call or adjust own artillery, because without accurate adjustment their arty is skew and only something random can hit your positin.   

 

The "grave with steps" for R&R

 

Edited June 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[CAZmaj]

7 hours ago, kraze said:

We are talking Russia here. Let's be realistic - they don't have Dominic Toretto.

Russia did have Belenko  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Belenko and Zuyev https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Zuyev_(pilot)

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Killed in the recently crashed Il-76 (weaponized Ukrainian waterfowl strike for sure), all from 117th Military Transport Aviation Regiment:

Lt.Col. Vladimir Petrushin

Maj. Nikolay Gorbunov

Maj. Stepan Perminov

Also from recently crashed Su-25, Maj. Vladimir Krot:

 

[MikeyD]

A small reminder that 1998 was a quarter century ago. Russia is having to rummage deep in its war chest to find pilots, it seems

[JonS]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/300621973/russia-will-soon-exhaust-its-combat-capabilities-in-ukraines-east-western-intelligence-predicts

 

Quote

 

The Russian military will soon exhaust its combat capabilities and be forced to bring its offensive in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region to a grinding halt, according to Western intelligence predictions and military experts.

"There will come a time when the tiny advances Russia is making become unsustainable in light of the costs and they will need a significant pause to regenerate capability," said a senior Western official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.

The assessments come despite continued Russian advances against outgunned Ukrainian forces, ...

 

 

[Machor]

@Taranis's Ukrainian counterpart pretty much doing a commercial for CAESAR: 

Beleg already posted this, but I thought there are folks here who'd be touched with the first official Ukrainian HIMARS video's message: "MANY THANKS TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE FOR PROVIDING WEAPONS!": 

 

[Machor]

Ukraine's 2S7 are still rocking - note the gun operating alone, as per Haiduk's previous reporting on maximum dispersion [The tweet was later corrected - it is being operated by a regular artillery unit, not TD]:

Retreating Ukrainians got @LongLeftFlank's memo and left Shanghai Donbas surprises for the Russians:

I wonder if Russians are able to transfer their experience from Syria, considering the Wagner presence?

[Beleg85]

22 minutes ago, Machor said:

I wonder if Russians are able to transfer their experience from Syria, considering the Wagner presence

I was also wandering the same. Read somewhee that most of the cadre of PMC is still in Africa/Syria and guys who are fighting in Ukraine are mostly fresh mercenaries. Perhaps their experiances from Syria are not that valid in this war anyway- they mainly did communication, training, security services and maybe small raids in Middle East, not real war against determined conventional army.

Ok, sheer brutallity and lack of manners on Ukrainian side this time...

[Machor]

Ukrainian Mi-8s doing flying MLRS with a ridiculously high angle - a unique advantage of this tactic. I guess one isn't safe from such a volley even in the 'grave' depth foxholes described by Haiduk above:

Reverse cockpit-view of Ukrainian Su-25 executing low altitude combat maneuvers, giving a sense of the g-forces involved. Note the new hi-vis livery against friendly fire:

 

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Machor said:

Ukrainian Mi-8s doing flying MLRS with a ridiculously high angle - a unique advantage of this tactic. I guess one isn't safe from such a volley even in the 'grave' depth foxholes described by Haiduk above:

Reverse cockpit-view of Ukrainian Su-25 executing low altitude combat maneuvers, giving a sense of the g-forces involved. Note the new hi-vis livery against friendly fire:

 

I was not built with a stomach that could handle that sort of piloting.

Steve

[Machor]

7 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Perhaps their experiances from Syria are not that valid in this war anyway- they mainly did communication, training, security services and maybe small raids in Middle East, not real war against determined conventional army.

I should have made myself clearer: I was wondering about transfer of experience from Syria regarding mine and IED warfare, which look like becoming prominent in this war at this stage.

 

10 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, sheer brutallity and lack of manners on Ukrainian side this time...

I was frankly thinking about this much earlier when the mini-drone attacks started, and now it has become real. Next war, grunts will have to wear adult diapers like fighter pilots.

[Vanir Ausf B]

When all your tractors are busy towing Russian tanks use Mi-24 helicopters to harvest wheat.

 

[Machor]

New NYT piece on covert ops in Ukraine - the importance of medical training was something I didn't expect:

Commando Network Coordinates Flow of Weapons in Ukraine, Officials Say

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/25/us/politics/commandos-russia-ukraine.html

"A secretive operation involving U.S. Special Operations forces hints at the scale of the effort to assist Ukraine’s still outgunned military."

"WASHINGTON — As Russian troops press ahead with a grinding campaign to seize eastern Ukraine, the nation’s ability to resist the onslaught depends more than ever on help from the United States and its allies — including a stealthy network of commandos and spies rushing to provide weapons, intelligence and training, according to U.S. and European officials.

Much of this work happens outside Ukraine, at bases in Germany, France and Britain, for example. But even as the Biden administration has declared it will not deploy American troops to Ukraine, some C.I.A. personnel have continued to operate in the country secretly, mostly in the capital, Kyiv, directing much of the vast amounts of intelligence the United States is sharing with Ukrainian forces, according to current and former officials.

At the same time, a few dozen commandos from other NATO countries, including Britain, France, Canada and Lithuania, also have been working inside Ukraine. The United States withdrew its own 150 military instructors before the war began in February, but commandos from these allies either remained or have gone in and out of the country since then, training and advising Ukrainian troops and providing an on-the-ground conduit for weapons and other aid, three U.S. officials said."

"Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in February, the Army’s 10th Special Forces Group, which before the war had been training Ukrainian commandos at a base in the country’s west, quietly established a coalition planning cell in Germany to coordinate military assistance to Ukrainian commandos and other Ukrainian troops. The cell has now grown to 20 nations."

"The commandos are not on the front lines with Ukrainian troops and instead advise from headquarters in other parts of the country or remotely by encrypted communications, according to American and other Western officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. But the signs of their stealthy logistics, training and intelligence support are tangible on the battlefield.

Several lower-level Ukrainian commanders recently expressed appreciation to the United States for intelligence gleaned from satellite imagery, which they can call up on tablet computers provided by the allies. The tablets run a battlefield mapping app that the Ukrainians use to target and attack Russian troops."

"Still, former military officials who have been working with the Ukrainian military have expressed frustration with some of the training efforts.

For instance, Ukrainians have struggled to evacuate soldiers wounded at the front lines. The United States could step up front-line first-aid training and advise the Ukrainians on how to set up a network of intermediate mobile hospitals to stabilize the wounded and transport them, former officials said.

“They are losing 100 soldiers a day. That is almost like the height of the Vietnam War for us; it is terrible,” a former Trump administration official said. “And they are losing a lot of experienced people.”

Army Green Berets in Germany recently started medical training for Ukrainian troops, who were brought out of the country for the instruction, a U.S. military official said."

"The Ukrainian military’s most acute training problem right now is that it is losing its most battle-hardened and well-trained forces, according to former American officials who have worked with the Ukrainians." [my emphasis]

[sburke]

even God is messing with Russians.

Putin's Top Priest Collapses During Russian Church Ceremony (msn.com)

[Machor]

Longer quotation from the WaPo article that JonS linked to, since there are some interesting tidbits:

Russia will soon exhaust its combat capabilities, Western assessments predict

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/06/25/ukraine-russia-balance-of-forces/

"Small shifts in territorial control matter less than the overall balance of forces, which analysts say could shift back in favor of Ukraine in the coming months"

"The Russian military will soon exhaust its combat capabilities and be forced to bring its offensive in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region to a grinding halt, according to Western intelligence predictions and military experts.

“There will come a time when the tiny advances Russia is making become unsustainable in light of the costs and they will need a significant pause to regenerate capability,” said a senior Western official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue."

"According to chatter on Russian Telegram channels and Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Anna Malyar, the Russian military is under pressure to bring all of Luhansk under Russian control by Sunday, perhaps explaining the heightened momentum of the past week." [my emphasis]

"But the “creeping” advances are dependent almost entirely on the expenditure of vast quantities of ammunition, notably artillery shells, which are being fired at a rate almost no military in the world would be able to sustain for long, said the senior Western official.

Russia, meanwhile, is continuing to suffer heavy losses of equipment and men, calling into question how much longer it can remain on the attack, the official said."

"Russian commentators are also noting the challenges, emphasizing a chronic shortage of manpower. “Russia does not have enough physical strength in the zone of the special military operation in Ukraine … taking into account the almost one thousand kilometer (or more) line of confrontation,” wrote Russian military blogger Yuri Kotyenok on his Telegram account. He estimated that Russia would need 500,000 troops to attain its goals, which would only be possible with a large-scale mobilization, a potentially risky and unpopular move that President Vladimir Putin has so far refrained from undertaking."

"The Russian onslaught has already outlasted forecasts that Russia’s offensive capabilities would peak by the summer. Aggressive recruitment of contract soldiers and reservists has helped generate as many as 40,000 to 50,000 troops to replenish those lost or incapacitated in the first weeks of the fighting, according to Ukrainian officials. Russia has been hauling ancient tanks out of storage and away from bases across the vast country to throw onto the front lines in Ukraine."

"“The most significant part of the war isn’t these geographic points, because now it’s a contest of will but also a material contest, of who is going to run out of equipment and ammunition and their best units first,” he said. “Both of these forces are likely to get exhausted over the summer, and then there will be an operational pause.”

At that point, assuming sufficient quantities of weaponry and ammunition have arrived, the hope is that Ukraine will be able to go on the counteroffensive and start rolling Russian troops back, Ukrainian officials have said.

If not, both sides will dig in to defend their positions, and a stalemate will ensue, barring the unlikely prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough, the Western official said.

“You’ll have two sides not seeking territorial advantage but on operational pause, focused on resupplying and relieving the front line, at which point you are into a protracted conflict,” he said." [my emphasis]

[FancyCat]

9 minutes ago, Machor said:

New NYT piece on covert ops in Ukraine - the importance of medical training was something I didn't expect:

“They are losing 100 soldiers a day. That is almost like the height of the Vietnam War for us; it is terrible,” a former Trump administration official said. “And they are losing a lot of experienced people.”

Interesting that they think the logistics of medical support can be improved, if they are invoking Vietnam, which I think was high intensity for the U.S, i would think that would be expected. With that said, the U.S, and her allies are leaders in logistics and that includes medical care transportation so im glad they have identified a weak spot for improvement and think that the high intensity warfare does not mean it can't be improved. 

Tho admittedly, im sure Russia is more than eager to bomb any hospitals they can identify. 

[Machor]

Following up on the WaPo article I posted from, a valuable interview with Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Defence Intelligence of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence - his words suggest the Ukrainian military is preparing for a 'great' counteroffensive:

Russia is conducting covert mobilisation campaign, Ukraine spy chief says

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-is-conducting-covert-mobilisation-campaign-ukraine-spy-chief-2022-06-25/

"KYIV, June 25 (Reuters) - Russia is using its reserve forces in a covert mobilisation to replenish its ranks in eastern Ukraine and there is no point in simply waiting for its offensive potential to fizzle out, the head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency said on Saturday.

Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence, told Reuters in an interview in Kyiv that he believed Ukraine could only achieve a victory against Russia through military force.

"The strategy is very simple. Stabilise the situation. Receive the required amount of equipment and prepare the required amount of forces and means to start the counteroffensive to return all our territory," he said.

"We shouldn't wait for a miracle that they will tire and stop wanting to fight and so on. We will win back our territory as a result of our counteroffensive," he said.

He said that 330,000 personnel were involved in Russia's operations in Ukraine, a third of its entire armed forces, a figure he added also included non-combat personnel such as logistics staff.

"The main part of this number is the combat element and that is more than 50% of what Russia has at the moment," he said.

He said was calm about the possibility of Russia eventually openly announcing a mobilisation as it would mean President Vladimir Putin having to face awkward questions at home.

"They really fear this - this is the main reason why the mobilisation is happening in a hidden way, particular by using (reservists)," he said.

"The military units that took part on Feb. 24 and those same military units now are in most cases on their second and in some cases even their third group of personnel," he said. "These are not the well-trained people who were prepared for many years.""