How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

heh.  For those looking at the June 23rd ISW report, note the link to the PDF goes to May 23rd.  I was reading it and thinking something was wrong, but when I saw Russians reportedly took northern Lyman I got really confused.  Talking about assaults on Mariupol pretty much clinched it   Hey. I'm tired so not as quick as I usually am!

The web based June 23rd text is correct, just the linked PDF isn't.

Steve

[Machor]

48 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

From a practical sense they aren't going to go around changing all the prices on the thousands of items every few days.  I don't think any business here in the US would try to do it either.

FWIW from a guy in Canada with contacts in Turkey: Grocery stores there are changing prices every day (for higher, obviously), and even within the workday for crisis moments, like when sunflower oil was rocketing early in the war.

[gnarly]

Popped up in one of my feeds: 

 

Quote

According to a video published by the Russian Ministry of Defense on June 21, 2022, Russian army artillery units use Zala UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) to carry out reconnaissance missions and increase the accuracy of fire. In the video, the Zala drone enables Russian artillery to spot Ukrainian army M777 155mm howitzers battery and then destroy them with pinpoint accuracy.

 

[Battlefront.com]

Keep your eyes out for Russian drone footage allegedly destroying 3x M777 and a supply truck somewhere in the Lysychansk area.  Interested to see if the Russians actually managed to hit something they were filming.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

HAHA!  As I was posting the above... gnarly made it irrelevant.  Well done gnarly!

OK, this is by far the best quality drone footage out of the Russian MoD since the war started IMHO.  It shows, clearly, that they destroyed at least one truck and one gun.  There's something else burning, but can't tell what it is.

Note that I think they edited the footage to make it look like they destroyed more than one gun.  But the camouflage on the barrel is distinctive and you can see that it's the same one from shot to shot.

Steve

[gnarly]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

HAHA!  As I was posting the above... gnarly made it irrelevant.  Well done gnarly!

Steve

hahahhaa!  Though not convinced that they actually detroyed 3 x M777s. One definite, yes.

[Suleyman]

I think they do hit more than 1, I seen footage of them taking out 3-4 M777 a couple days ago on a twitter source. It’s normal to lose artillery in such an artillery heavy environment. The Russians lose artillery in the dumbest ways possible sometimes too. The Ukrainians seem to be better at shoot and scoot

[Fenris]

Drone salesman be like "Is there anything a drone can't do??"

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

Slightly longer version of the video showing the strike on the M777s, in two parts.

Geo-located 48.866308, 38.389871

 

 

[Holien]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

While I agree it doesn't seem to be negatively impacting their ability to defend elsewhere, the simple fact that they need this much artillery to take a small city that they've been fighting in for 4 months is "crazy".  It's like using a howitzer to kill an annoying fly.

Add into the pot that to have this much artillery concentrated in such a small area increases the backend logistics of getting the ammunition to the guns. In some ways it simplifies logistics but only if your road and railway net can support that volume of ammunition.

This could mean more ammunition stored in a location that can be reached by Ukrainian fire.

I think that we might have seen the effectiveness of this concentration being used against the Russians. The Ukrainians have hit some big ammunition dumps.

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 hour ago, Suleyman said:

I think they do hit more than 1, I seen footage of them taking out 3-4 M777 a couple days ago on a twitter source. It’s normal to lose artillery in such an artillery heavy environment. The Russians lose artillery in the dumbest ways possible sometimes too. The Ukrainians seem to be better at shoot and scoot

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html

Oryx counts 3 so far. Links on the website

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, Suleyman said:

I think they do hit more than 1, I seen footage of them taking out 3-4 M777 a couple days ago on a twitter source. It’s normal to lose artillery in such an artillery heavy environment. The Russians lose artillery in the dumbest ways possible sometimes too. The Ukrainians seem to be better at shoot and scoot

I'm dying to see footage of the (12) PanzerHaubitze 2000 in action. They should be in Ukraine now. Pretty sure they will have high priority for the Russiand to find and destroy.

[Huba]

MLRS (?) launch gone wrong:

And yet another car-bombing in Kherson. I imagine russians got to be quite uneasy about that...

 

Edited June 24, 2022 by Huba

[Taranis]

36 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I'm dying to see footage of the (12) PanzerHaubitze 2000 in action. They should be in Ukraine now. Pretty sure they will have high priority for the Russiand to find and destroy.

A few days ago, there were rumors (fakes) that the Russians had captured CAESARs. All this is of course false. I don't see how the CAESARs would have been in the front line and captured... Especially since the Ukrainians know that it is a priority target

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/15012157?utm_source=lindependant.fr&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=lindependant.fr&utm_referrer=lindependant.fr

[Huba]

RU is on a downward spiral to North Koreanisation, and is about to turn another circle on it. Cutting gas to EU was really the stupidest thing they could do, it was literally the last string preventing Europe from just building a wall on RU border and turning our backs on them completely. If US announces them the state sponsor of terrorism, there's nothing stopping Europe and UK from doing the same.

So what's the chance that Biden and Blinken will follow through with this?

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

54 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I'm dying to see footage of the (12) PanzerHaubitze 2000 in action. They should be in Ukraine now. Pretty sure they will have high priority for the Russiand to find and destroy.

even better:

 

[Letter from Prague]

8 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

even better:

 

I'm looking forward to the inevitable drone video of them impacting.

[Huba]

5 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

even better:

 

What made me a tad suspicious is that:

a) the launchers stand just next to each other. With 4 in whole country they would've spread them better I think

b) they let out a whole volley - given those are PGMs, and in short supply, what would be a viable target?

c) it is probably a matter of weird light from the launches, but this wheat looks a bit too ripe for this time of the year

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

Just now, Letter from Prague said:

I'm looking forward to the inevitable drone video of them impacting.

until then this is the best downrange reference footage for this ammo I have found (at the end full salvo as well):

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

What made me a tad suspicious is that:

a) the launchers stand just next to each other. With 4 in whole country they would've spread them better I think

b) they let out a whole volley - given those are PGMs, and in short supply, what would be a viable target?

c) it is probably a matter of weird light from the launches, but this wheat looks a bit too ripe for this time of the year

Video has been up for about an hour and I am following the main platforms it is published on. Still not disproven. So I would say this the first time this footage has emerged on the internet. Still might be old unpublished footage (Romania?). But who in their right mind would shoot two full salvos in exercise(Ammo of this price, in the EU area)? Training ammo maybe? But shooting this amount of money without filming it... no.

a)
Rare to split thing to ones in military. Event these sort of artillery systems operate as batteries.

b)
The rockets of the salvos maybe can be targeted to multiple locations? Maybe not sort on ammo? To saturate areas with these you need lots of rockets. Comparable payload to 203mm artillery shell.

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Video has been up for about an hour and I am following the main platforms it is published on. Still not disproven. So I would say this the first time this footage has emerged on the internet. Still might be old unpublished footage (Romania?). But who in their right mind would shoot two full salvos in exercise(Ammo of this price, in the EU area)? Training ammo maybe? But shooting this amount of money without filming it... no.

a)
Rare to split thing to ones in military. Event these sort of artillery systems operate as batteries.

b)
The rockets of the salvos maybe can be targeted to multiple locations? Maybe not sort on ammo? To saturate areas with these you need lots of rockets. Comparable payload to 203mm artillery shell.

Thinking of it, if that was exercise they wouldn't be shooting from the middle of the wheat field.

I just read that reportedly command point and a concentration of vehicles was destroyed somewhere in Kherson overnight, sounds like a perfect target for full salvo.

[Combatintman]

8 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

The Ukrainian military now having M113s in their inventory definitely also helps the 'Nam vibe.

Let's not go too far down that track - as I recall the M-113 owning side came second in that conflict.

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Taranis said:

A few days ago, there were rumors (fakes) that the Russians had captured CAESARs. All this is of course false. I don't see how the CAESARs would have been in the front line and captured... Especially since the Ukrainians know that it is a priority target

https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/15012157?utm_source=lindependant.fr&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=lindependant.fr&utm_referrer=lindependant.fr

From RU comments I got a feeling that they are upset about French artillery. References to French 155mm pop up regularly. Cannot say why but can speculate that a somewhere a respectable RU artillery man got really mad at something he considered to be Caesar and spread the word. 

[The_MonkeyKing]

1 hour ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

until then this is the best downrange reference footage for this ammo I have found (at the end full salvo as well):

 

This one is also interesting:
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1540245902924939268?s=20&t=RnxXAjzlMamFTryW9_wtkQ

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

RU is on a downward spiral to North Koreanisation, and is about to turn another circle on it. Cutting gas to EU was really the stupidest thing they could do, it was literally the last string preventing Europe from just building a wall on RU border and turning our backs on them completely. If US announces them the state sponsor of terrorism, there's nothing stopping Europe and UK from doing the same.

So what's the chance that Biden and Blinken will follow through with this?

Could be power play - we know that with gas blackmailing RU left itself option to backpedal as needed (It can declare that it was just a maintenance and restore the gas supply). So, US is warning RU that playing stupid games RU can win stupid prize. Good move.