How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I wonder why not NW of Izyum instead?  Probably some terrain issues?  I don't want to fight in the city, no way.  I just want to unhinge RU forces via cutting supply lines.

Izyum is where there supply line crosses the river. North of Izyum they have to cross the river to do real damage.

[Beleg85]

36 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I wonder why not NW of Izyum instead?  Probably some terrain issues?  I don't want to fight in the city, no way.  I just want to unhinge RU forces via cutting supply lines.

They probably prefer to stick to forest and villages. There must be real hell in this forest west of Izyum, terrain is not that large and fights there are reportedly fierce. If I measured crrectly on maps and the front lines are accurate, eveything there seem to be in range of enemy artillery from both sides. Something like scaled down Bastogne or maybe even Hurtgen.

Ukrainians would probably like urban terrain more than Russians, even if attacking. It gives lighter forces better chances than open and they probably know it better anyway. If understand the forces there, elements of 93rd and 81st Brigades are leading the way. TD and SOF guys are also there.

BTW, did anybody noticed any tunnels dig under streets as part of Ukrainian defences in cities? There were some bunkers in Mariupol, reportedly, and some in Popasna too, but never observed anything resembling Gaza.

 

Oh and as a bonus:

https://wartranslated.com/intercepted-call-companies-have-10-15-people-left-in-them/

Edited June 17, 2022 by Beleg85

[Vanir Ausf B]

Looks like the MQ-1C Gray Eagle sale may be delayed or canceled.

Quote

One solution to move the sale forward would be to swap out the existing radar and sensor package for something less sophisticated, but that could take months to complete, one of the sources.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/u-drone-sale-ukraine-hits-213218697.html

[danfrodo]

Thanks Dan/CA & Beleg85, good points. 

I see now, looking more closely at the map, that going north of Izyum they'd have to cut M103 and then go quite far to cut P79, w small river in the way.  Going S of Izyum only need to cut M103 plus have river obstacle for their eastern flank.  Cutting that road would be huge.  RU salient would have very difficult time getting supplies from the east given near lack of road net in that direction.  

[Doc844]

6 hours ago, billbindc said:

The idea that pulling out of Afghanistan was a sign of weakness was certainly a favorite trope for CNN journalists who made their careers there but what's never noted is that Afghanistan kept American resources (both diplomatic and military) tied up in a region that was completely removed from any strategic interest to the country. Worse, it forced the Pentagon into retaining a force structure that was not geared towards near peer warfare. 

The pullout was certainly not the US' finest hour but from a state competition standpoint, it was a net negative for Russia and China which would become more of a negative as the US reoriented globally. 

Apologies if this has been replied to, still catching up on the last few pages, work can be so awkward at times .  Now I'm not saying that Western Intel, political leadership were astute enough at the time but I'm going to say it anyway.  But it may be possible that Russians build up to how it was going to deal with Ukraine were becoming more prominent/realistic possibilities, so the US had to re-orientate sooner rather than later to be able to counter the threat.  Still being tangled in that mess which for me was unwinnible from Western standards would have severely degraded how America could respond.  So the decision was made to cut losses and pull out, pretty **** deal for Afghanistan but the coalition could have stayed, my country included (UK),  for another 20 years and still not made much of a difference except more blood and money spent for little gain.  Just my 2 cents but worth thinking about.

[Huba]

 

[LongLeftFlank]

I don't post 'boom!' videos much anymore unless they have tactical interest, but this thread provides videos showing the action, and terrain, around Borodychne (road to Sloviansk) from 4 June when RA finally got around Dovhenke to present. The town is still contested.

 

DefMon3 shares some of his tradecraft. @Combatintman

 

Edited June 18, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Centurian52]

On 6/14/2022 at 2:06 PM, dan/california said:

Is there anything on the planet that can take a hit from the  M892A3 or A4?

Not as far as I know. The T14 perhaps? Nothing that has been mass produced so far. Of course the KF51 is a brand new tank, and that means that being able to defeat current threats is not good enough. If accepted into service it will be around for decades, and that means it needs to be able to handle near-future threats with the capability to be upgraded to handle further-future threats. A new tank that isn't at least somewhat future-proofed is a terrible new tank.

[Centurian52]

On 6/14/2022 at 2:40 PM, Letter from Prague said:

 (Any plans for Mac version? Probably wouldn't be worth it since it's a custom engine.)

There is already a Mac version. Every CM game has a download for PC and a download for Mac. Where things get tricky is if you want to run it on Linux, which isn't officially supported, but we've managed to get that working too.

[Machor]

10 hours ago, dan/california said:

I am strongly of the opinion that the situation in Belarus heavily influenced the timing of the war in Ukraine. Putin only got real and effective control of Belarus in the last couple of years. It was being able to start the invasion a hundred miles from Kyiv that convinced Putin he could pull off the coup/decapitation fast enough to avoid a truly large western reaction.

This. When you look at all variables, there are two that scream out: Covid, and full Russian control over Belarus. I do suspect Covid and isolation played a role in terminally messing up Putin's already troubled psychology - just recall his 'Ukraine doesn't exist' speech right before the war. But it was Belarus that was the most significant geopolitical change since the annexation of Crimea. However, I will make a correction. 

10 hours ago, dan/california said:

Putin only got real and effective control of Belarus in the last couple of years.

It's even more recent than that - Putin took control only after the 2020-21 protests against Lukashenko were effectively suppressed.

Here's Lukashenko 'blasting' Putin in January 2020:

Belarus' leader blasts Russia for pushing merger of 2 states

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/belarus-leader-blasts-russia-for-pushing-merger-of-2-states-1.4782437?cache=mgxrihoykb%3FclipId%3D89925

"The president of Belarus on Friday accused Moscow of pressuring his country to merge with Russia, and vowed not to let it happen.

Talking to workers of a paper plant in eastern Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko lambasted Russia, the country's main provider of cheap oil and gas, for halting oil supplies in order "to dissolve Belarus ... in the brotherly Russia."

The statement comes amid stalled talks on further strengthening economic ties between two countries, seen in Belarus as Moscow's plot to swallow its post-Soviet neighbour.

"We have our own country, we're sovereign and independent. With our brains and hands, we earn what we can, we're building our own country. And we can't be a part of some other country," Lukashenko said. "I can't betray you and dissolve Belarus, even in the brotherly Russia."

Russia stopped supplying oil to its post-Soviet neighbour after Dec. 31. The two nations had failed to renegotiate an agreed oil price for this year during drawn-out negotiations on deepening the integration of their economies.

The Russian suspension did not affect oil crossing Belarus to Europe or the supply of natural gas, but had consequences for Belarus, which relies on Russia for more than 80% of its energy needs.

Lukashenko has since vowed to find alternative oil suppliers and said Friday that Belarus is currently negotiating additional supplies with the United States, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates.

Earlier this week, Minsk announced the import of oil shipments from Norway.

"Americans, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates... I have a brilliant relationship with them, they say they will supply as much oil as needed," Lukashenko said, insisting that his intention not to concede to Russia's demands is "not a bluff.""

And more 'blasting' from August 2020, when Belarus caught Wagner operatives on the eve of the elections:

Belarus ruler Lukashenko says Russia lying over 'mercenaries'

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53648640

"Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko has accused Russia of lying about a "mercenary" group arrested in Belarus last week and says another such group has infiltrated his country.

"Today we heard of another unit sent into the south," he said in an address to the nation. "We'll catch them all."

Russia has denied that the 33 Russians held were plotting terrorism and were linked to anti-Lukashenko activists.

Anti-Lukashenko protests have grown, as he seeks re-election on 9 August.

Russia has said the 33 - claimed to be members of the shadowy Wagner mercenary group - were only transiting via Belarus en route to Istanbul. And Russia insists they had no mission to interfere in the Belarus presidential election.

"All this about Istanbul, Venezuela, Africa and Libya - it's a lie. These people - they have already given testimony - were sent into Belarus on purpose. The order was to wait," Mr Lukashenko said, in his televised annual address.

He said the Russians could have flown directly to an overseas destination - there was no need for them to enter Belarus to do so.

"So far there is no open warfare, no shooting, the trigger has not yet been pulled, but an attempt to organise a massacre in the centre of Minsk is already obvious," he alleged."

Thus, taking 25 March 2021 as the 'official' end of the protests as per Wikipedia, the invasion of Ukraine began one month short of one year after that date.

[LongLeftFlank]

If true, there is unquestionably a political element. A large part of VDV's job is to keep the rest of the Army in line. Commanders are neither selected nor replaced for military reasons (save death). @sburke

P.S.  One for the future scenario design file....

This guy's feed tracks the naval war such as it is, for those interested (I have other priorities)  @Harmon Rabb

 

Edited June 18, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

20 hours ago, Grigb said:

Had a spare time and checked interview of T-80 tanker from the tweet above and I think it is interesting.

Author:
— A question about the mobility of the tank: GTD [Gas-Turbine engine] – "hell for suppliers" or a thing? Are they reliable enough? Problems on the fuel march? Smooth running, shaking, acceleration in comparison with diesels. What are the main disadvantages of the T-80 BVM?

Tankman:
— It all depends on what role the tank group plays. As practice has shown, the speed of the "box" directly affects its survival. The T-72B and T-72B3 had very impressive losses during the battles in urban areas, while the group of the 80s lost only one tank in 3 months of operation.

Of course, serving mixed groups is hell for rear echelon, but there is no need for them [mixed groups]. In the later stages of the operation, the machines were used for completely different tasks. There were no complaints about the reliability of the machines, they withstood more than they should have. The movement on the T-80 BVM is much quieter and smoother, which made it possible to carry out lightning attacks.

The main drawback of the tank is an outdated thermal imaging sight on which any landfill makes excessive background noise, and high fuel consumption.

 

Author:

— Nuances in use? Ammunition? Was the ammo put only in mechanized laying [autoloader]? Typical composition of ammo (proportion: HE, HEAT, APFSDS)? Or were they filled in for a specific task? What type of ammunition was used most often? Is the main APFSDS still 3B42?

ATGM — a suitcase without a handle or a really useful thing? Is it really possible to implement the "long arm" [feature] of our tanks in the conditions of combat in the current theater of operations [Not sure what he means as usually long arm of RU tanks is barrel launched ATGM with range longer than NATO cannons range, but given answer from tanker he might mean indirect long range cannon fire to counter NATO ATGMs]? Have you ever used it? If yes, then the nuances, reliability, were there any failures of guidance and what is their reason? From personal experience: what kind of ammunition would need to be modified or created?

Tankman:

— There have never been more than 10 shells in the armor [means inside tank]. From the experience of fighting around Donetsk airport, I know what happens to a combat vehicle when it is packed to capacity with ammunition. When a shell from an RPG arrives from the building above into the commander's hatch,  the turret flies to the 3rd floor of the [Donetsk airport] terminal. Our counterparts decided to ignore this simple truth and were always packed to capacity, for which they were nicknamed among the [men of our] unit "lemming herd".

There was nothing but Mango at the beginning of the operation, ammunition was spent so quickly that it was not possible to replenish it. As for the "long arm", I will answer as concisely as I can.

You can, but it is difficult. It is extremely inconvenient to make a calculation in order to hit a hidden standing target (God forbid, also moving), and forces you to invent a bicycle on the spot, based on the terrain features.

Concrete-piercing types of weapons are urgently needed, taking into account the NATO guidelines for the construction of fortifications.

 

Author:

— Observation. Did you perform any tasks at night? How does the commander conduct surveillance at night? How did the sighting equipment manifest itself? At what distances, on average, was it possible to detect the enemy?

Tankman:

— Performing tasks in the dead of night by armored formations is effective only when working from closed [hidden] positions. In an ideal scenario, if a tank group is advancing to the assault, it is better to do it at 2-3 o'clock in the morning and reach the point of the beginning of the battle by dusk. The sighting equipment is outdated, needs to be replaced. But for the fight against the tanks of the USSR, although modernized, this is not critical. Thanks to the infantry and the coordinated work of "Akhmat" [I think he means Chechen battalion Akhmat], we always knew where the enemy was and how he moved.

 

Author:

— General awareness of the situation. Connection. Communication in combat with an infantry unit? Were automated control systems used (according to the ESU TK type) or all only through radio communication?

Tankman:

— I'm not disclosing the communication details.[It may be because Comms are always real embarrassment for Soviet/RU army]

 

Author:

— Tank duels? Or are tanks not fighting tanks (with)[It is RU historical meme which caused a lot of arguments in RU mil history community]? Are there any problems with the defeat of enemy tanks? How do you assess the resistance of the T-80BV M to modern anti-tank weapons? What is the opponent's skill?
Tankman:

— Tank duels in this theater are very much in demand from our side, and we are trying to impose them. The superiority in reverse speed and the ability to enter the enemy's sides gives us the opportunity not to lose these duels at all ever. And since the Ukrainian tanks are completely packed with ammunition to the point of failure, you do not need more than one hit.

As for resistance against domestic weapons — a solid 5 [top mark]. As for the Western ones, it is more difficult, since we did not give the opportunity to use them against us. But, it seems to me, tandem shells could be a problem for us, but there is always a good old grid [mesh armor] for this.

Fortunately for us, competent Ukrainian tankers are gone, most of the experienced commanders and gunners were knocked out as a result of the fighting of the 14-15s.

Author:

— And the last question. How did the additional fabric screens perform [The egg shell armor but obviously he means working one not empty]?

Tankman:

— By the current moment, there are no more of them left on our tank. [RU Addon side armor packages are easily damaged and tend to fall off quickly]  But, apparently, we were hit with something during the cleaning of the village of "Z.", and they saved us. Works.

https://www.economist.com/interactive/international/2022/06/15/does-the-tank-have-a-future?etear=nl_weekly_5

More red meat for the treadheads here to rip into!

The T-72 is the Toyota Corolla of tanks—a mass-produced stalwart of armies around the world. 

Lol, they dream of having a fraction of the Corolla's mechanical reliability. I'd say it's more like a Ford Taurus.

Having ammunition and crew sit together is a design flaw. 

No wonder the Russian (T80) tanker above said they don't carry more than ten rounds.

A typically pragmatic (if not fatalistic) Russian workaround, and the fact (assuming it's a fact) that the Ukrainians don't gives an interesting case in point about how different they really are culturally.

Compare British and Americans, or Indians and Pakistanis.  Or Hong Kongers and mainlanders.

[LongLeftFlank]

On 6/17/2022 at 11:54 AM, LongLeftFlank said:

[Pfarrer] SIEVERODONETSK /1600 UTC 15 JUN / RU continues to commit to a bloody urban fight-- sacrificing its advantages in maneuver warfare. FEBA reported as stable. Reports indicate ~500 civilians are sheltering under the AZOT chemical plant. RU would prefer to capture AZOT intact

1.  Rust belt maze from hell.  And another one is waiting across the river, the refinery complex at Novodruzhesk, now heavily fortified. And there's another further back at Siversk.

2.  And here again are the Big Red Arrows of Doom! (Those are the ragtag separs I showed 2 days back using antique RCLs and LMGs)

 

3. Foreign legion still east of the river? My guess is no. 

 

 

Gonzo journalist Butusov continues dancing close to the flame....

Lethal game of volleyball. Fetch the Roach, muthaf***a!

[health warning: pro-Russian sources above]

Russians are determined to take this city, one way or the other, progress on other fronts be damned. Although losing their Kherson bridgehead in exchange is going to hurt.

I am increasingly convinced they are looking to wind down their invasion of Ukraine and cut their massive losses.  They are looking to 'rationalise' a new frontier/front along various river lines and claim 'mission accomplished'.

They then go over to the defensive, fortify like mad and continue the attrition war, hoping to kill Ukrainian kids about 1 for 1. And start whining for a cease fire, 'plebiscites', peacekeepers and, of course, an end to sanctions.

Which the Chinese and other weasels (Erdogan?) will vigorously back, for reasons I don't want to sidetrack into again.

Edited June 18, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Grigb]

14 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Having ammunition and crew sit together is a design flaw. 

No wonder the Russian (T80) tanker above said they don't carry more than ten rounds.

A typically pragmatic (if not fatalistic) Russian workaround, and the fact (assuming it's a fact) that the Ukrainians don't gives an interesting case in point about how different they really are culturally.

The comment about Ukrainian tankers is somewhat questionable. He cannot know how many rounds UKR tanks are carrying. So, he judged by the fireworks. But even unofficial after Chechnia SOP with keeping only 20 rounds can produce the same violent fireworks.  Even his 10 rounds SOP can do it. It does not prevent fireworks but just decreases the chance of major fireworks after a minor hit (RPG). Hit him with a tank round and up he goes.

[LongLeftFlank]

4 minutes ago, Grigb said:

The comment about Ukrainian tankers is somewhat questionable. He cannot know how many rounds UKR tanks are carrying. So, he judged by the fireworks. But even unofficial after Chechnia SOP with keeping only 20 rounds can produce the same violent fireworks.  Even his 10 rounds SOP can do it. It does not prevent fireworks but just decreases the chance of major fireworks after a minor hit (RPG). Hit him with a tank round and up he goes.

Yeah, I agree, a top turret HEAT penetration is gonna be pretty effing nasty, regardless whether a brew up follows immediately. It might be a touch less painful for the crew, actually, albeit nothing left to send home to Momma....

But on the battlefield, humans will grasp at whatever folk wisdom they can to persuade themselves to keep going.

Edited June 18, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

If true, there is unquestionably a political element. A large part of VDV's job is to keep the rest of the Army in line. Commanders are neither selected nor replaced for military reasons (save death). @sburke

Sorry, but it looks like it is  not entirely true.

I do not know from where idea VDV keeps army in line is coming. Keeping army in line is a dishonorable job beneath VDV. It is the job of Rosguardia formations. 

According to RU talks Serdyukov was de facto relived right after ending Kiev battle. Now it is just formally arranged. They say Serdykov wanted to be a legend like founder of VDV Margelov and decided to press on for Kiev even after they realized UKR forces are not surrendering.

Almost all field commanders ignored him except 76th VDV Division. As a result the division got totally defeated (Divisional Recon company was destroyed). Those who talked with survivors got shocked for couple of days. Looked like guys were on edge of mutiny and Serdyukov got unofficially sacked.

[dan/california]

 

21 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

If true, there is unquestionably a political element. A large part of VDV's job is to keep the rest of the Army in line. Commanders are neither selected nor replaced for military reasons (save death).

It makes perfect sense, unless you bleep around into a real war. Then those very loyal, but not so very competent, commanders get your elite units slaughtered. The very elite units who are supposed to keep the army from deciding that maybe their real enemy is in Moscow.

[LongLeftFlank]

11 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Sorry, but it looks like it is  not entirely true.

I do not know from where idea VDV keeps army in line is coming. Keeping army in line is a dishonorable job beneath VDV. It is the job of Rosguardia formations. 

According to RU talks Serdyukov was de facto relived right after ending Kiev battle. Now it is just formally arranged. They say Serdykov wanted to be a legend like founder of VDV Margelov and decided to press on for Kiev even after they realized UKR forces are not surrendering.

Almost all field commanders ignored him except 76th VDV Division. As a result the division got totally defeated (Divisional Recon company was destroyed). Those who talked with survivors got shocked for couple of days. Looked like guys were on edge of mutiny and Serdyukov got unofficially sacked.

Good info, thanks.

I may not be being clear, sorry, but nobody seriously disputes the political role of the VDV in supporting the internal Russian power structure (a legacy of the USSR). They definitely aren't the only formation tasked with preventing/countering coups (Taman Guards, MVD, OMON and now Rosvgardia, not to mention Kadryov's boys who are Putin's personal vassals), but they are part of the complex.

Not unique to Russia either; the US 82nd Airborne has special internal duties as well.

Edited June 18, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Grigb]

2 hours ago, Machor said:

This. When you look at all variables, there are two that scream out: Covid, and full Russian control over Belarus. I do suspect Covid and isolation played a role in terminally messing up Putin's already troubled psychology - just recall his 'Ukraine doesn't exist' speech right before the war. But it was Belarus that was the most significant geopolitical change since the annexation of Crimea. However, I will make a correction. 

It's even more recent than that - Putin took control only after the 2020-21 protests against Lukashenko were effectively suppressed.

Yes, it seems so. Apparently Covid and isolation took its toll on Putin. Also Lukashenko was resisting Putin right until protests. After that Lukashnko became much more agreeable and that gave shortest route to Kiev. 

[Grigb]

14 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I may not be being clear, sorry, but nobody seriously disputes the political role of the VDV in supporting the internal Russian power structure (a legacy of the USSR).

Not unique to Russia either; the US 82nd Airborne has special internal duties as well.

And it surprises me. It is army QRF and shock troops. Even in USSR. Army units simply are neither loyal nor reliable enough for any RU political regime because RU rulers rarely come from military clan. 

It is like this:

1. Military clan will use VDV against KGB clan if Military decide to get rid of KGB clan
2. KGB clan will use Rosgvardia to keep ordinary Army formations in line (generals will be killed by infiltrators) 
3. Both Military and KGB will use both VDV and Rosgvardia to deal with any significant uprising. VDV goes first to establish military superiority and may be perform initial cleansing of the most threatening enemy elements (Butcha) but it will be Rosguardia that will do the job of quelling uprising and keeping anyone in line. In case of minor uprising VDV might not be even called.      

  

 

[LongLeftFlank]

10 minutes ago, Grigb said:

And it surprises me. It is army QRF and shock troops. Even in USSR. Army units simply are neither loyal nor reliable enough for any RU political regime because RU rulers rarely come from military clan. 

It is like this:

1. Military clan will use VDV against KGB clan if Military decide to get rid of KGB clan
2. KGB clan will use Rosgvardia to keep ordinary Army formations in line (generals will be killed by infiltrators) 
3. Both Military and KGB will use both VDV and Rosgvardia to deal with any significant uprising. VDV goes first to establish military superiority and may be perform initial cleansing of the most threatening enemy elements (Butcha) but it will be Rosguardia that will do the job of quelling uprising and keeping anyone in line. In case of minor uprising VDV might not be even called.      

 

I wrote a whole paper on it in uni, mate (1985); it's how I graduated.  When the 1991 coup was tried against Gorbachev, it was VDV (103rd Div, Tula-Ryazan) rolled into Moscow, and then back out again.

As you suggest, things have diversified and complexified a good bit since Putin took over, but the political role of the VDV remains.

I absolutely agree on military clan not being allowed to take charge. Russia's rulers have carefully innoculated themselves against Napoleons -- usually by shooting them on various pretexts -- since 1918.  Arguably as far back as 1825 when Tsars stopped being appointed and violently deposed by the army.

Edited June 18, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[chuckdyke]

His usual style is a professional presentation.

 

[Letter from Prague]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

.I am increasingly convinced they are looking to wind down their invasion of Ukraine and cut their massive losses.  They are looking to 'rationalise' a new frontier/front along various river lines and claim 'mission accomplished'.

They then go over to the defensive, fortify like mad and continue the attrition war, hoping to kill Ukrainian kids about 1 for 1. They then start whining for a cease fire, 'plebiscites', peacekeepers and, of course, an end to sanctions.

Which the Chinese and other weasels (Erdogan?) will vigorously back, for reasons I don't want to sidetrack into again.

That would basically be a complete strategic victory for Russia, despite their initially over-the-top goals. It would show they can invade, commit war crimes, steal children to Siberia, threaten food safety of the whole world, and then get away with it with barely any consequences.

I wonder if that can be prevented with West being "oh we have to make sure not humiliate / not escalate / not send anything powerful".

At least it seems the latest Ukraine's crowdsourcing attempts are working and people of Reddit's /r/noncredibledefense joke forum are having fun with it, while supporting a good thing.

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Gonzo journalist Butusov continues dancing close to the flame....

Lethal game of volleyball. Fetch the Roach, muthaf***a!

[health warning: pro-Russian sources above]

Russians are determined to take this city, one way or the other, progress on other fronts be damned. Although losing their Kherson bridgehead in exchange is going to hurt.

I am increasingly convinced they are looking to wind down their invasion of Ukraine and cut their massive losses.  They are looking to 'rationalise' a new frontier/front along various river lines and claim 'mission accomplished'.

They then go over to the defensive, fortify like mad and continue the attrition war, hoping to kill Ukrainian kids about 1 for 1. And start whining for a cease fire, 'plebiscites', peacekeepers and, of course, an end to sanctions.

And do it all over again in a couple of years. Not this time. 

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I wrote a whole paper on it in uni, mate (1985); it's how I graduated.

I was living there, mate. It was where I was born. So, i respectably disagree. 

Look at August 91 coup. It was USSR ending event. Where was VDV? You would expect VDV would be major force suppressing biggest uprising in modern USSR history. But reality was different.

They are QRF and shock troops. Keeping Army or anybody else in line was never their job.