How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

1 minute ago, kraze said:

Yes, exactly. It's not some border dispute or dispute over some political ideas or decisions. If Ukraine stops fighting - they will kill us all, or at least will try hard to do it like they did many many times before. Millions dead and with no place to live for whoever survives is a much worse outcome than hundreds of daily casualties - even though it's horrific either way.

yeah, if the coup had come off as Putin had planned, the Ukrainian people would've been in for a lot of suffering.  But after wrecking Putin's plans and fighting against him, he would enslave/murder the whole population now if he could.  

[kraze]

16 minutes ago, sburke said:

WSJ saying that that Russian tug was hit be a Harpoon missile.

Ukraine Uses Western Harpoon Missile System to Sink Russian Tugboat (msn.com)

That bottle of champagne was desperately asking to get opened for a while

[Calamine Waffles]

 

[Aragorn2002]

7 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Actually yes, my parents. My father in Athens had some very rough time, executions, hunger, people dying in the streets searching for food...My mother in Crete had a better 4 years living in a self sufficient village. Only one day they were rounded up in a church with her mother and the villagers with germans pouring gasoline around. Repisals for beating (killing?) two german soldiers. The wehrmacht doctor, that also looked after the kids of the region, intervened and prevented the holocaust. I still believe they didnt intend to burn them though but rather scare them. But a 15yr old kid that run away was shot in the back. Strangelly she still recalls, a soldier among the chaos stealing a pouch and some money from some poor peasants house and the officer forcing him to return it. A paradox, among the sheer sinster brutality they still had a sense of "professionalism" and discipline. 

Apologies for the off topic but thought you mind find it interesting. So yes, I dont think there is wisdom in supporting fascism. That being said I dont think Russia will ever achieve even a fraction of the level of darkness Nazi Germany brought, so I cant see the parallel with Hitler. I hope I'm not mistaken with their potential, I will come here to sincerely apologize to be honest and recognize the vision you all had and I missed.

 

And I very respect that.

 

Here I have to say that Russias intervention role effectively ended the rule of ISIS. I don't know what we were doing there training and arming moderate rebels that somehow were ending in the radical islamists ranks but we had a share on the mess. I think ISIS was hell on earth. Probably worse than Assad. And ISIS was the child of the iraqi invasion, Europe had no involvment and opposed vigorously. (hence the French fries were banned) .

Also the refugee boats are filled with many nationalities, some are coming through Libya that has become an international slave hub, some from Iraq, many were also coming from Afghanistan. The biggest weaponizer of the refugees is by far Erdogan, (see the greek/turkish border crisis a couple of years ago) a ruler we are harbouring in our alliance, conduct common army drills and even allowing to have a say in Finland -Sweden entrance to NATO. 

 

 

It did cost him membership of the EU and I'm convinced it will cost him NATO membership once Ukraine has won this war (if he's still around by that time that is).

[danfrodo]

on a side note, it looks like Zelensky has access to a weight room.  Dude is looking rather pumped.  Probably not a bad thing for his mental health to do some lifting.  

[kraze]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

yeah, if the coup had come off as Putin had planned, the Ukrainian people would've been in for a lot of suffering.  But after wrecking Putin's plans and fighting against him, he would enslave/murder the whole population now if he could.  

We know what their troops did in occupied towns, I myself can hardly imagine the suffering russians cause in other places they occupy for more than 3 months now. I mean - near Mariupol there are already huge mass graves that cannot be hidden from satellites even if russians tried and that's the biggest city they captured during the full scale invasion - what happens in smaller towns is anyone's guess - but it's not a happy guess at all.

[dan/california]

What he said.

[Aragorn2002]

Just now, danfrodo said:

on a side note, it looks like Zelensky has access to a weight room.  Dude is looking rather pumped.  Probably not a bad thing for his mental health to do some lifting.  

Haha, yeah, as a frequent visitor of the fitness school I can attest that such arms need a lot work.

[kraze]

20 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Here I have to say that Russias intervention role effectively ended the rule of ISIS. I don't know what we were doing there training and arming moderate rebels that somehow were ending in the radical islamists ranks but we had a share on the mess. I think ISIS was hell on earth. Probably worse than Assad. And ISIS was the child of the iraqi invasion, Europe had no involvment and opposed vigorously. (hence the French fries were banned) .

Considering Russia supplies and supports Islamic terrorist organizations all around the world incl. Hezbollah and Taliban - you may be very very wrong about their actions towards ISIS.

In fact had Russia not "intervene" in Syria - that would've been a stable country in just months, probably a moderately negotiable one like Qatar or Kuwait with ISIS getting a good beating instead of using the chaos and suffering Russia has caused to get in there and use Syrians towards their goals.

Assad was nearly done and the guys beating him weren't ideological.

Edited June 17, 2022 by kraze

[Calamine Waffles]

17 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Actually yes, my parents. My father in Athens had some very rough time, executions, hunger, people dying in the streets searching for food...My mother in Crete had a better 4 years living in a self sufficient village. Only one day they were rounded up in a church with her mother and the villagers with germans pouring gasoline around. Repisals for beating (killing?) two german soldiers. The wehrmacht doctor, that also looked after the kids of the region, intervened and prevented the holocaust. I still believe they didnt intend to burn them though but rather scare them. But a 15yr old kid that run away was shot in the back. Strangelly she still recalls, a soldier among the chaos stealing a pouch and some money from some poor peasants house and the officer forcing him to return it. A paradox, among the sheer sinster brutality they still had a sense of "professionalism" and discipline. 

Apologies for the off topic but thought you mind find it interesting. So yes, I dont think there is wisdom in supporting fascism. That being said I dont think Russia will ever achieve even a fraction of the level of darkness Nazi Germany brought, so I cant see the parallel with Hitler. I hope I'm not mistaken with their potential, I will come here to sincerely apologize to be honest and recognize the vision you all had and I missed.

Oh, your parents have memories of World War 2? So you must have memories of the Greek junta, no?

[panzermartin]

1 hour ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Married to an Afghan lady who is both pro-Russian and anti-NATO (for the rest we're doing fine,

Haha, so you carry here the words you can't get to her . Now it makes sense j/k

I'm curious, what are her arguments on that ? 

[panzermartin]

3 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Oh, your parents have memories of World War 2? So you must have memories of the Greek junta, no?

No personally I don't have, I was born after that. It is just my parents were bit oldish when I was born.

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, Suleyman said:

My view on this war is different, I definitely believe the Ukrainians should be able to choose what they want and Russia shouldn’t invade a country over something majority of them wanting. However our foreign policy (US) is funny to me. There’s other nations in the world right now that are under severe oppression and occupation (arguably more than Ukraine) yet we don’t really do nothing for them. I’m fine with us helping Ukraine with military gear but spinning up this thing that we are righteous is hilarious to me.

To me it seems our government just wants to wreak havoc on the Russian military and government since they are our historical rival in certain regions of the world(which is fine I guess they’d do the same to us). I earn decent pay however a lot of Americans don’t, and a lot of them suffer from the increases in gas prices and other inflation caused by this war. If we as a people are so willing to suffer to help people in need we should also help other peoples in need too not just the ones that our foreign policy decides is absolutely important. 

The fact that we aren't saints doesn't mean we aren't much more civilized than (most of) the rest of the world. 

Edited June 17, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Suleyman]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

The fact that we aren't saints doesn't mean we aren't much more civilised than (most of) the rest of the world. 

I think that's very disrespectful to the many beautiful cultures and nations across the world. What makes us more civilized? 

[Aragorn2002]

4 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Haha, so you carry here the words you can't get to her . Now it makes sense j/k

I'm curious, what are her arguments on that ? 

Let me just say I know how it is to live under censorship.

Well, her parents were part of the communist regime in Afghanistan and treated well by the Russians. Apart from that they visited Russia frequently and speak the language etc. So NATO are the dogs of the US and Zelensky is a warmonger.

[Aragorn2002]

5 minutes ago, Suleyman said:

I think that's very disrespectful to the many beautiful cultures and nations across the world. What makes us more civilized? 

Democracy?

 

Edited June 17, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Haiduk]

Polish "Krab" SP-howitzers already in action 

 

[Huba]

Damn those are serious numbers. 

Icluding captures, tanks are probably replenished. Artillery not so much, but new systems make up for it with quality. But APCs seem to be urgently needed in huge quantities. 

 

Edited June 17, 2022 by Huba

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Let me just say I know how it is to live under censorship.

Well, her parents were part of the communist regime in Afghanistan and treated well by the Russians. Apart from that they visited Russia frequently and speak the language etc. So NATO are the dogs of the US and Zelensky is a warmonger.

Ok your wife and relationship are worthy of their own thread if you wan to start one. There is a book in that somewhere.

Edited June 17, 2022 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

Thank you guys for getting yourselves back on track while I was out.  Very much appreciated.

Before this war started the friend that I've been talking about this stuff with since 2010, who is in Kyiv, had a conversation about this point explicitly.  We both agreed that this was just about the worst time in the last 20 years for Putin to launch a war.  The reasons all basically boil down to the US military-industrial complex looking to avoid a repeat of the post-Vietnam environment of lower defense spending and national soul searching.

From an entirely cynical standpoint, Putin just gave the US military-industrial complex a huge new purpose and source of funding.  The tax coffers are open and the Arsenal Of Democracy is now firing up its production.  It's like WW2 all over again, except this time Russia gets none of the tools of war it needs to win, but instead has to face them in battle.

Putin is not the master strategist

Steve

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, BFCElvis said:

Just hanging out.....my itchy banning finger hasn't been used in a while. I have it on standby.

Its the den mother and she has the flashlight...hide!

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

Damn those are serious numbers. What West delivered covers less of 50% of the losses. Time to speed things up...

Here's how these numbers line up with Oryx:

400 Tanks -> Oryx says 194 (50%)

1300 IFVs -> Oryx says 290 (22%) for all armored passenger vehicles

700 Artillery -> Oryx says 93 (13%)

Interesting to see how many more tanks were documented as a percentage compared to the other categories.

I suspect a some of the artillery "lost" includes systems that are simply worn out and no longer useful.  From a combat perspective it's not much different, especially if there's no reason to think they're coming back into service (i.e. no ammo for them anyway).

Steve

[Haiduk]

UKR artillery has struck several targets in Donetsk in second time for this day. Reportedly ammunition storage of "Kalmius" DPR artillery brigade hit (but there is no such devastating detonation like in Rrasnyi Luch yesterday) and several other vehicles/ammunition depots inside the city

Locals also write about several hits in Makiivka and Horlivka. Looks like at last political decision allows army that, what we want all theese years - strikes at military units and storages in the deep of occupied territiory, even if they located close to residental areas. Recently this actions was very limited and conducted mostly at the targets on the outskirts of the towns and cities. But now probably there is a task to reduce capabilities of LDPR artillery, so we are seen series of strikes on ammunition storages

Edited June 17, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

Here's some intense footage of fighting in Serverodonetsk by the International Legion.  There's a great bit towards the end that shows these guys are not TickTock warriors parading around safe in the rear like some others we know of

 

[The_Capt]

58 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I remember like 10 years ago I was talking to a guy at work and I said "We already know how afghan mess will end.  One day we will just leave.  There is no win, no lose, we will simply leave." 

We knew this while we were still there, which made prosecuting a war a little difficult.  I can recall being at the outdoor market in outside the airfield in Kandahar in '07 and seeing old Martini-Henrys (likely knock off), Lee Enfields (Indian knock offs) and real Soviet AK 47s and guys joking "in ten years there will be M4s and Canadian C7s hanging up there for sale".

Why and how the Afghanistan mission failed could fill a thread of its own so I will summarize:

- The West was never going to either do or stay enough to make the changes we were looking for stick.

- The Afghans had no interest in making the changes that were need to stick either.  It is impossible to heal a patient who does not want to live.

- "Forget it Jake, its Chinatown"...we picked the wrong side in a country where there was no right side and likely will not be for some time.

At best, we were keeping people busy who would cause trouble elsewhere and killing the right people who needed it (most of the time) - global custodial work: keep sweeping the garbage into the right piles, make sure the fires stay small and shoot the odd rat to keep their population down.