How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Offshoot]

11 minutes ago, YouWillOwnNothing said:

I reminds me about a Nazi, refusing to look at a calculation presented by Einstein, because it was from a jew.

This shows your disconnect from critical analysis. You see, Einstein was in fact a genius who knew what he was talking about, whereas the man you are promoting here (assuming it is the same Mercouris, which you haven't denied) has been shown to have a very tenuous relationship with the truth (just one example from his rap sheet: "you purported to obtain a statement from H that was not a true document and you knew was not a true document and you had not had any contact with H").

You talk about facts but have not discussed any, instead dropping a link with no explanation. I don't accept anything as fact without verification, and certainly not when provided by some sketchy dude intermixed with a bunch of his reckons.

Don't bother replying to me personally. I have added you to my ignore list as your contributions here are valueless.

[Haiduk]

@sburke @Kinophile

Lt.colonel Sergey Gundorov, Mi-35M flight or squadron commander of 487th separate helicopter regiment (airbase Budionovsk, Stavropol region) of 4th AF and AD Army of Southern military district. The Regiment has Mi-28N, Mi-24, Mi-35, Mi-8 AMTSh. Last known duty of Gundorov - flight commander of Mi-28N in 2012 (in that time had a rank of mayor). Got lost two days ago, 16th of June, when his Mi-35M was shot down, near Rivnopil' village, Donetsk oblast. 

Together with him got lost second crewman lieutenent Dmitriy Yevdokimov

 

Edited June 18, 2022 by Haiduk

[Harmon Rabb]

 

Footage of that Russian tugboat we were discussing yesterday being hit.

Edited June 18, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, YouWillOwnNothing said:

Attacking the messenger is not making the arguments and facts go away.

Attacking the people making the arguments doesn't make the facts go away either

As for your Einstein analogy, I agree that you shouldn't just dismiss someone casually because of who they are.  Girkin is a murderous war criminal, but I believe him when he says Russia is losing the war because it is run by a bunch of idiots.  Why?  Because he is speaking about a topic he knows a lot about and his opinions are not in contrast with verifiable information.  Yet I don't value the opinions of a disgraced and obviously mentally challenged Briton just because he is able to blather on a camera for a little while.

OK, so you're now getting an official warning.  If you want to participate in the discussions and follow the Forum rules for behavior, you can stay.  If you're going to stick with your current strategy of trying to drop "truth bombs" and run away, then you'll lose your ability to post.

Your choice.

Steve

[Haiduk]

22 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Footage of that Russian tugboat we were discussing yesterday being hit.

And both videos were posted too  

There is confirmed this resque vessel was hit with two Harpoons

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

But retaking the north bank of the Dnipr is a long way away from retaking the land bridge.

No, but it puts them within artillery range of the "neck" going to/from Crimea.  That plus some partisan activities would put a big hurt on the defenses west of Donetsk.  Which, not surprisingly, are getting thinner by the day as Russia strips out more and more troops there for the Donbas and defending Kherson.

Even this doesn't win the war, but it keeps moving it in the right direction.

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

And it's not about what we think, it's what Putin can get away with forcing Russia to think.

.... So restating my prior case, if the liberation of Kherson (north bank of Dnipr) does not come with the effective destruction of the Russian armies currently occupying it, it is tragically NOT decisive, at least not by metrics that matter in terms of Russian regime change (and reinvention of Russia on more constructive terms for its own people, not to mention its neighbours and human civilisation in general).

....While if it does include decisive defeats of the Russian armies, then by definition the door is open to the restoration of the 2014, and perhaps the 2002 frontiers. In effect, the UA has cracked the code, as the Americans did in Normandy and elsewhere.

Ukraine hasn't come up with anything special, but it has been following a very good formula...

Kill enough Russians in any one place and they have to leave.  Northern Ukraine all the way down to Kharkiv was not the result of a dramatic Ukrainian military action.  It was the culmination of collective Russian losses.

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

But nobody has shown me a convincing path to that yet.

"Collapse"   Happened on a local level twice before in this war, no reason to think it won't happen again.  Especially given what we know about Russia's forces.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

I believe we are missing Crimea water problem. The Invasion of 2014 was not as successful as it might seem. RU failed to capture the land bridge and thus failed to ensure water supply to Crimea. The result was ecological catastrophe in slow motion.

Yes, I believe the "land bridge", including the water supply, was a major reason for the war.  But I don't think it explains "why now".  There was no water crisis in Crimea different than any time before 2022, so I don't think there's anything special about it.  Instead, it's part of a long list of benefits of taking over Ukrainian territory.  It's in a similar category of having the rest of the coastline in Sea of Azov and Black Sea, securing natural resources, increasing Russia's population, etc.

3 hours ago, Grigb said:

So, Putin had very real pressure to start a war with Ukraine as soon as possible to capture at least enough UKR land to ensure water supply. And if you are going to war why not to try to capture whole things? Military reports they can defeat UKR resistance in couple of days. So, all out war for quick regime change is better than limited invasion with unclear exist strategy. 

None of Russia's military options had an exit strategy from potential Western sanctions, so in that sense Putin probably figured that if Russia was going to suffer an unknown number of sanctions for an unknown number of years, might as well have all of Ukraine instead of a piece of it.

As the old British saying goes, "in for a penny, in for a pound".  Which is you might as well finish what you started even if it costs more in the short term.

Steve

[CHEqTRO]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

This is probbaly very accurate depiction of things. It's worth to note in this context that already 2 months ago there were reports of Russian officers (or Russian-minded Belarusians, even retired SU career offcers back in service) taking care of Belarusian units, and we see unprecedented scale of manouvers, security checks and troops moving around.

Right now analysts dealing with Belarus speculate Lukashenko is desparately trying to fight for his own loyal cadre to be kept in charge of his own forces. Thus his strange and erratic messaging last months.

 

Also it's more and more obvious to me that Kazakhstan expedition -that so many Central Asian analysts tried to explain in geopolitical terms, even talking about New Silk Road- was actually giant cope cage for Putin to give him extra conviction about resiliance of his VDV troops in taking airport, riding downtown and shooting surprised crowds. One piece of self-confirmation machine that spinned acording to wishes of the Czar.

 

Interestingly, Lukasehnko has ramped up the rethoric these last days, whih coincide with the nation wide training exercises and movement of troops to the Ukranian border.

 

Now I am curious which supposed Ukranian governmental entety is going to call the belorussians, of all people, for help, in order to defend their sovereignety. If they had a figure like Medvedchuk in power in some region of Ukraine acting as the """"""real""""" Ukraine then maybe, but they dont so, who? The LDPRs, which their whole reason of existing is being a threat to Ukranian sovereignity? Wouldnt that be something, having Pushilin calling for the maintainment of international recognized border of Ukraine.

 

We will see what cames of this, but IF the Russians intend to keep the war going they are going to need to mobilize, so they are going to need to declare war to do that, and so, supposedly, CSTO will have to get engaged in it as well. Hence maybe Belorussian preparatives? Wouldnt be interesting, to see CSTO collapse, as central asian countries decide to reject the call to arms? Kazakhstan definitively seems unhappy about the whole ordeal...

 

[CHEqTRO]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

But retaking the north bank of the Dnipr is a long way away from retaking the land bridge.

And it's not about what we think, it's what Putin can get away with forcing Russia to think.

.... So restating my prior case, if the liberation of Kherson (north bank of Dnipr) does not come with the effective destruction of the Russian armies currently occupying it, it is tragically NOT decisive, at least not by metrics that matter in terms of Russian regime change (and reinvention of Russia on more constructive terms for its own people, not to mention its neighbours and human civilisation in general).

....While if it does include decisive defeats of the Russian armies, then by definition the door is open to the restoration of the 2014, and perhaps the 2002 frontiers. In effect, the UA has cracked the code, as the Americans did in Normandy and elsewhere.

But nobody has shown me a convincing path to that yet.

At the very least, it allows Ukranian troops operating there to go to other places, namely, the Donbass or the Zaphorizia front. Obviously, if those Russian units are able to scape, it would have been a missed oportunity for the Ukranians, as any offensive towards Melitopol would probably encounter whatever the Russians are able to salvage from Kherson. Plus the whole political fallout inside Russia in case of having those units encircled would be extremely juicy.

Still, those units are going to get attritioned to hell, and they will get out mauled and combat ineffective (unless the Russian order a withdrawal, which would be surprising, for political reasons aswell), so there is that.

 

Edited June 18, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[sross112]

7 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Ukrainians are fighting and praying for their freedom for centuries. They know what suffering is. It's a tragedy, I agree, but that has been most of their history. They have something worth fighting for. The alternative is endless misery and terror. I know what I would chose.

"I would rather die on my feet than live on my knees." - Euripides

There is no guessing what is in store for their people and their country should they lose. If anyone needs more detail on the machine Ukraine would be subjected to read the Gulag Archipelago. 

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, YouWillOwnNothing said:

[Some smug AYBABTU sh*te about natgas I just can't be arsed to listen to]

 

1.  I actually make my living in the energy business, so please believe me when I say there are still a boatload of perfectly functional coal plants in Europe (google RWE) which can keep the lights on there if need be for some years, in spite of the CO2 consequences (which, indeed, we humans must all live with collectively. Especially tundra and taiga dwelling Russians, who get to experience them long before the river-valley-dwelling fellow Slavs whose lands they feel entitled to colonise).

TL:DR  Europeans have many choices about freezing in the dark, and those choices are NOT made in Moscow.

Extending remarks: 

2. I went to MBA school in the 1990s with a GAZPROM egghead who was a flat out genius. And he was quite firm on one point: ever since fur trading days, in spite of throwing its best brains at the question, Russia has always been a piker at the global resource and commodities game, with at best 'swing supplier' leverage. Even tiny overregulated Canada kicks their arse.

3.  Deciding which key resources go where on the planet, and for how much, has been an exhorbitant privilege of the Anglo-Saxon maritime civilisations since before 1500. I backdate that to include the Dutch Republic and pre-union Portugal. When Bajazet took full control of the old Silk Route from the Mamluks c.1480, it forced Henry the Navigator and his backers to explore beyond the Mediterranean basin. Raise your hands,  nation states whose seafarers can deal with the Atlantic (or North Sea). The rest is history.... 

4.  More broadly yet, ever since it was codified by guilds of cloth merchants in Flanders in the post Black Death 1380s, and then further refined by Baltic traders, market capitalism (even when harnessed, for a time, by ambitious kings and republics) consistently chews and spits out authoritarianism/despotism + kleptocracy (those invariably come as a package) in the event of conflict.

Kapital siegt on allen fronten.

[Note that none of this sidebar pontificating negates my worry about the ruinous consequences of a long drawn out war for the dear Ukrainians, as expressed above. Capital can be a heartless, faithless sh*t as well, seeking low lying ground like water]

[akd]

19 hours ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Evgeny “Bullet” Andreev, battalion commander, 1st AK, DNR (as of 2017 he was a company commander in the 2nd Motor Rifle Battalion of the 11th Separate Motor Rifle Regiment, but don’t know if he rose to command same battalion):

 

Hmm…

 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, CHEqTRO said:

Now I am curious which supposed Ukranian governmental entety is going to call the belorussians, of all people, for help, in order to defend their sovereignety. If they had a figure like Medvedchuk in power in some region of Ukraine acting as the """"""real""""" Ukraine then maybe, but they dont so, who? The LDPRs, which their whole reason of existing is being a threat to Ukranian sovereignity? Wouldnt that be something, having Pushilin calling for the maintainment of international recognized border of Ukraine.

 

We will see what cames of this, but IF the Russians intend to keep the war going they are going to need to mobilize, so they are going to need to declare war to do that, and so, supposedly, CSTO will have to get engaged in it as well. Hence maybe Belorussian preparatives? Wouldnt be interesting, to see CSTO collapse, as central asian countries decide to reject the call to arms? Kazakhstan definitively seems unhappy about the whole ordeal...

1. True. I wouldn't take Lukashenko here literally however, what he means is probably within broad categories of 'Former Russian world" being attacked and defending against perifidious and decadent westerners. So, it's  communicate for hardliners in his army (mainly Russians and siloviki) that he will stay on his former course.

He really is riding on many horses in the same time, both internal and external pressures must be immense. That Russians did not manage to infiltrate his apparatus totally yet is actually beneficial from Western perspective.

2. Unfortunatelly we cannot entirely exclude provocations (even bloody), state terrorism against LITH-PL or that he suddenly throw some of his forces "at the request" of Kherson People's Republic. I doubt that manufactured refugee crisis or plane kidnapping is end of his possibilities. Especially, since:

3. Belarusian experts in PL, and they usually have good sources, noted that Lukashenko is (and probably should) be very concerned about recent Belarusian volunteers in Ukraine. Unlike earlier Belarusians fighting in Donbas for those 7 years, most guys from 'Kostas Kalinouski regiment" come from recent wave of opposition diaspora, are more numerous, better educated, partially trained by professionals (perhaps by some neighbour NATO military... ) and organized. And they gain experience quickly, in real war. These guys know what they are fighting for and it is not something unthinkable they may actually see it in their lifetime.

In other words- his opposition is still scattered abroad, but now it has internationally recognized leaders (Ms. Tsichanouska) and what more- tooths and claws to defend. This is not something he faced before in his career.

4. Tokaiev and entire Kazakh elites was reportedly not at all thrilled by a way which Putin handled their own small internal dispute- killing several hundred of their own citizens. Other Central Asiatics states are in slightly similar positions like Lukashenka, but unlike him they actually can play some China card.

Edited June 18, 2022 by Beleg85

[Bearstronaut]

4 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Here's a video I don't think I've seen in this thread: 

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/veykmu/ukraine_korean_navy_seal_ken_rhee_and_team/

Those are some very calm people, given the situation.

This dude, Ken Rhee, is a former ROK Navy SEAL officer and is a minor celebrity in Korea. He’s starred in a TV show taking other celebrities and putting them through tough military training (this is a popular genre in Korea). He returned to Korea recently after injuring his knee in Ukraine and is facing criminal charges. After the war kicked off in February the South Korean government put a travel ban on going to Ukraine for ROK citizens.

[Artkin]

I didnt realize Minsk was such a clown show until this thread. Big bad Belarus with its Corps strength army of T-72B and BMP-2. Yeah good luck with that Lukashenko.

 

They will be quickly defeated unless the Russians are preparing for another strategic shift of troops back to the North (I assume by train). To move a Russian division (2 divisions per corps) to a destination: "Moving a tank or motor rifle division would necessitate the utilization of around 1,950 to 2,600 
railcars,
23 which is at least three times more than what was scheduled for Zapad. Given that a 
typical train echelon has 57 cars, just one division would require as many as 34 to 50 trains.
24"

This is going to be too slow for a surprise attack. Considering the Russians are probably low on PGM's, it's total suicide attacking Ukraine from the North IMO. 

UKR will outpace the Russians at redeployment every time. 

Edited June 18, 2022 by Artkin

[danfrodo]

Took me nearly an hour to get caught up on all the posts, great work.  LLF on a roll.  Some up-close to combat videos, I was surprised to see a reported within ~25mm of tank shell strike.  Dude is really taking his job seriously -- and might not be long for this world.  Just about every time I think  I had a point to make I keep scrolling and someone has already made the point. 

Kherson:  interesting points here, my take was already taken somewhere above but I'll see if I can summarize:  Kherson is a worthy territorial goal for UKR, of course, but would be a big strategic win if they can trap and destroy/capture russian forces there.  If not, then both sides will be able to reposition their troops to the east on the Melitopol axis.  I do wish UKR was currently able to move down that road and then swing west, cutting off all of Kherson supplies, but not yet it seems.

Some guy posts some crap some british nobody says we have to care?  why? 

UKR talking losses, numbers all over the place.  But what matters is that this fight for everyone that wants to live in a peaceful world of trade and prosperity, which Putin very much threatens.  Whether UKR losses 50 or 300 a day matters in lives lost, but it certainly should not change support, since UKR supporters should already be doing everything within reason to help resoundingly defeat Putin's conquest.

Lukashenko says he'll fight to protect western UKR from Polish invasion.  That's like some kind of comedy skit.  Though I really would like to see  Lukashenko's BTGs to get the opportunity to see just what the Polish army can do.  Yes, roll down that highway toward Lviv and have the Poles hit your right flank.  Won't be pretty.

Oh, forgot the most important point:  someone has clearly taken our friend Aragorn hostage and replaced him w an imposter who is writing optimistic posts.  Obviously this is an imposter and we need to activate a special ops team in The Netherlands free the real Aragorn, else we will all become too optimistic and complacent.

Edited June 18, 2022 by danfrodo
addition

[FancyCat]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

But retaking the north bank of the Dnipr is a long way away from retaking the land bridge.

And it's not about what we think, it's what Putin can get away with forcing Russia to think.

.... So restating my prior case, if the liberation of Kherson (north bank of Dnipr) does not come with the effective destruction of the Russian armies currently occupying it, it is tragically NOT decisive, at least not by metrics that matter in terms of Russian regime change (and reinvention of Russia on more constructive terms for its own people, not to mention its neighbours and human civilisation in general).

....While if it does include decisive defeats of the Russian armies, then by definition the door is open to the restoration of the 2014, and perhaps the 2002 frontiers. In effect, the UA has cracked the code, as the Americans did in Normandy and elsewhere.

But nobody has shown me a convincing path to that yet.

As we see with the lack of general mobilization, clearly Putin has limits to what he can do with Russian society. You are acting like militarily defeating Russia on the field in a decisive battle is the only way of defeating Russia's military. One, let us throw away the idea of reforming Russia or even overthrowing Putin or turning Russia into a democracy. In my opinion, none of that is needed to get Ukraine her pre-2014 borders.

Two, as I already mentioned, Putin is waging offensives for political goals, not for military advantages. A key aspect of ensuring Ukraine wins is ensuring that Ukraine has a chance against Russia. That means the defeat of Putin's political goals. Kherson is not merely a town, it is a essential part of Novorossiya which is the legitimization of Russia's control over the land bridge. If Ukraine retakes Kherson, it illustrates to Ukrainians and Russians that Ukraine is intent and able to retake her territories. It thrashes Putin's political legitimation of the land bridge into Russia.

It means that Ukraine can threaten and retake Southern Ukraine. It empowers pro-Ukrainian sentiment in occupied regions. It emphasizes to Russian soldiers they are losing. It tells the Russian people in a big, unavoidable, immune to Putin's truth twisting, that the Kremlin has screwed up big time.

Others have already spoken of how disadvantaged Russia's military is due to time, I will point out one of Putin's advantages is the crafting of a information control bubble and elevation of himself into a huge reserve of prestige and gravitas. Defeating that gravitas is key to causing internal chaos in Russia. Defeating that prestige is key to further empower Ukraine in dealing with the West.

[Haiduk]

@Battlefront.com

Interesting document about Russian/LPR wounded, which shows a ratio between Russian, LPR regulars and LPR conscript losses from 15th of May to 15th of June likely on Popasna-Bakhmut direction, which passed through the hospital in Pervomaisk town (Luhansk oblast, occupied since 2014). 

Here the title document, which tells that from 15th of May to 15th of June the hospital brought 893 wounded servicemen. From this number 124 were died because their injuries were incompatible with life.

  

 

Further in thread issued sheets of theese 124 died servicemen - alas, only three sheet from six, so only 72 names available. The list composed inattentively, there are some mistyping in military unit numbers, also some LPR troopers "enlisted" to Russian units, but I corrected it. 

So from this 72 names we have next ratio:

Russian forces: 40

Western military district:

- 8th Guard CAA:

--- 150th motor rifle division: 2

-------- 163rd tank regiment: 1

-------- 102nd motor-rifle regiment: 10

Eastern military district:

- 5th CAA:

----- 57th motor-rifle brigade: 3

----- 60th motor-rifle brigade: 1 

- 68th Army corps (Sakhalin island, Kurils islands)

----- 39th motor-rifle brigade: 13

Pacific Fleet:

---- 40th separate naval infantry brigade: 8

---- 261st separate maritime engineer battalion: 1

Rosgvardia:

---- 141st special mortorized regiment of 46th operative brigade (Kadyropv's troops): 1

  

LPR forces: 32

LPR regulars (2nd Army Corps): 17

- 6th motor-rifle (cossack) regiment: 15

- 15th territorial defense battalion "USSR Brianka": 2

LPR conscripts: 15

I have no info about belonging of theese 4-digits numbers - to battalions or rifle regiments

--- m/u 2610: 5

--- m/u 2632: 2

--- m/u 2634: 7

--- m/u 2720: 1

Edited June 18, 2022 by Haiduk

[FancyCat]

We speak of momentum. Russia as illustrated in mainstream news is the side with the momentum. It has the upper hand, or more aptly the illusion of the upper hand. The northern offensive by Russia to take Kiev, and it's withdrawal, we saw how Russia saw to retain momentum and upper hand against Ukraine by giving the reasoning it was giving peace a chance. Despite being a decisive defeat of Russia's military, we saw little internal dissent kicking up, we saw little changes in world perception of Russian momentum.

Taking Kherson, after Russia has touted it's seizure, control, domination and eternal rule forevermore of southern Ukraine means a stab right into Russia's worldwide momentum and upper hand. It may not be a decisive military defeat of Russia's forces in Ukraine but it is a decisive defeat of Russia's political goals in Ukraine. That is really important LLF, if nothing else than to internally cause chaos in Russia but it will do a lot worldwide.

[Haiduk]

Next counter-battery work for reducing of Russian artillery superiority. 40th artillery brigade shelled Russian Grad battery and destroyed two launchers and ammunition truck. This is near Sukha Kamyanka, 10 km SE from Izium

 

Edited June 18, 2022 by Haiduk

[Artkin]

Is anybody here able to elaborate on the purpose of "Separate" organizations? Were these created specifically for defense? Maybe to guard a smaller region? 

Edited June 18, 2022 by Artkin

[Harmon Rabb]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

And both videos were posted too  

There is confirmed this resque vessel was hit with two Harpoons

Great news!

I was looking forward to seeing Harpoon missiles in action on the Black sea for months. As they supposedly said as a toast in Ramstein, bottoms up to the Russian Navy! All the way to the very bottom!

 

Edited June 18, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[Haiduk]

17 minutes ago, Artkin said:

Is anybody here able to elaborate on the purpose of "Separate" organizations? Were these created specifically for defense? Maybe to guard a smaller region? 

No, is mostly about cpability of unit to conduct own tasks autonomously. Since 2000th Russian army due to local conflicts transferred from old Soviet divisional structure to separate brigades structure, when each brigade has own set of heavy support weapon systems and wasn't depend from higher HQs and to be more flexible. But since Russia again became to dream about own empire ambitions and prepare to "big war", they again partially turned to divisional structure for solving of more scale tasks. Part of separate brigades were turned out to divisions, some were reduced to regiments. But there are many units remained as separate brigades in compositins of armies or army corpses (of coastal units)    

All UKR brigades are "separate".

Edited June 18, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

UKR 72nd mech.brigade arrived to Donbas (whole or some elements) and already shot down there Russian Su-25 with Igla MANPAD. Pilot ejected, but was captured

 

Edited June 18, 2022 by Haiduk

[Suleyman]

Impressive that the Ukrainians have anti ship units putting in work. Couple more ships even if tugboats and the black sea fleet might have to fall back. You can’t lose that much ships and the rival doesn’t even have a navy operating. 
 

The Kherson offensive is slow but it seems to be a decent push, it will grab the attention of Russian forces. I wonder if they will be able to drive deep, or are the Russians going to counter it. Tbh, what I think is that region for now will be a push pull battle.