How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[JonS]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

We really shouldn't go down this rabbit hole should we.......?

probably not ... BUT ... while we're here ...

Fortunately, the charging one has been solved now that we've all standardized on mini-USB. Or is it micro-USB? ****.

[kraze]

57 minutes ago, hcrof said:

Has anyone else noticed that while russian tank losses have decreased from about 10 a day to about 3 a day, their artillery losses have increased from 2-3 a day to about 9 a day? This has happened over the last 2 weeks or so from memory.

Im not sure what it means but it seems to be a good thing - fewer tank targets and more effective UA CB fire? Or maybe the pressure is off a bit and UA artillery has more time to hunt russian guns?

It means they attack less and defend more.

Which is true if you consider there is only a single area where any offensive actions happen

[Grigb]

Just decided to add my couple of cents.

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

We must keep in mind that Russia is not immune to shortages either.  At some point Russia might start running out of some calibers of standard ammo.  Nobody knows when that might happen, but ammo isn't endless for anybody.

Infamous Murz recently stated that LDNR artillery is extremely low on 122mm ammo and Russian Western Military District is running out of 122mm stock. They are urgently converting LDNR artillery to 152mm caliber (D-20 guns from Russian military storages).

As result:

• LDNR is not able to capitalize on fall of Mariupol due to some units are out of 122mm ammo and some units are in the midst of conversion to 152mm. 
• LDNR CB capabilities around Donetsk are negligible now and because of that UKR artillery is highly active there. 

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Plus, at some point Russia will run into problems with conventional artillery pieces being too worn to stay in the fight.  Russia has the capability to recondition them, definitely.  The problem for Russia is that such work can't be done if the systems are in the field popping off rounds.  Does Russia have enough spare systems, especially SPGs, sitting in Russia that can be rotated in while others are withdrawn for overhaul?  I don't think so.

Steve

Murz also stated during fire missions they are encountering multiple problems with 152mm guns (D-20) taken from storage. Interestingly, his statement implies they (LDNR and Russians) are unable (unwilling) to thoroughly inspect these guns before sending them to the fight. 

[Haiduk]

12 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Towards the end there's some time spent with a completely devastated column of Russian vehicles, many of them OMAN.  Some bits and pieces of bodies remain, but largely cleaned up.  No ability to know when that particular fighting happened, but at least some of the vehicles are really recent.  In fact, there was the first instance I've seen of a Belarus vehicle in Russian service.

This is that first famous large column of Rosgvardia, destroyed in first or second day of war. All this did 6th company of 92nd mech.brigade near Kutuzivka village NE from Kharkiv. The company in Day 1 turned out itself in the rear of Russians, because they advanced forward too fast, trying to enter in Kharkiv. In first contacts the company lost 3 BTR-4E, but despite this company commander decided to break through back to Kharkiv. The company, heading toward the city, encountered with large columnn of Rosgvardia/OMON, which drove in the same direction. Commander immadiately ordered to attack them - as result almost whole column was destroyed, but from full elimination Russians were saved because two their tanks appeared on the road and engaged UKR company. Two more BTR-4E were knokced out by tanks, so rest of company broke contakt and on full speed reached Kharkiv.

Edited June 8, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

42 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Just decided to add my couple of cents.

Infamous Murz recently stated that LDNR artillery is extremely low on 122mm ammo and Russian Western Military District is running out of 122mm stock. They are urgently converting LDNR artillery to 152mm caliber (D-20 guns from Russian military storages).

As result:

• LDNR is not able to capitalize on fall of Mariupol due to some units are out of 122mm ammo and some units are in the midst of conversion to 152mm. 
• LDNR CB capabilities around Donetsk are negligible now and because of that UKR artillery is highly active there. 

Murz also stated during fire missions they are encountering multiple problems with 152mm guns (D-20) taken from storage. Interestingly, his statement implies they (LDNR and Russians) are unable (unwilling) to thoroughly inspect these guns before sending them to the fight. 

This is one of theese problems - D-20 with torn barrel after several shots.

Edited June 8, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

@sburke @Kinophile

Colonel Ruslan Shyrin, chief of the staff of 336th Guard naval infantry brigade, Baltic Fleet.

 

PS. About killed lt.general Kutuzov. He was shadow commander of DPR "army" (1st Army Corps of DPR People's miltia)

PPS. Retired colonel-pilot Vladimir Liakhov have died of natural cases, not in action. Just his memory table was placed near the KIAs.

Edited June 8, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russian TG tells the lack of infantry forced Russians to use personnel of recon companies and battalions to participate in actions like usual infantry. This causes additional losses of specialiized troops, so Russian units soon can be limited in the tactical recon. Russian command puts an ultimatum for recon units commanders - either their soldiers go to the battle like usual infantry or this commander have to retire. As the author told on this screen, his familiar recon battalion commander chose to retire. 

Members of LostArmour discussion boards also told about lack of capable infantry both in Russian troops and LDPR. All last success maintained mostly by PMC, remained motivated VDV and Spetsnaz, which more and more plays a role of VDV. Most part of "line infantry" day by day is losing own motivation.  

Edited June 8, 2022 by Haiduk

[LongLeftFlank]

Welcome back, brother @Haiduk ! We are glad to see you posting again, we hope all is well.

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Welcome back, brother @Haiduk ! We are glad to see you posting again, we hope all is well.

Thanks ) Just became some more of work, my wife turned back and often occupies PC because her work, also it's hard to live three months 24/7 as war news translator, so I took small vacations 

Edited June 8, 2022 by Haiduk

[Armorgunner]

First 3 months of the war, in 1,5 minute. Frontlines moving, and 2100 cruise missile strikes.

 

 

[Bil Hardenberger]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

This is that first famous large column of Rosgvardia, destroyed in first or second day of war. All this did 6th company of 92nd mech.brigade near Kutuzivka village NE from Kharkiv. The company in Day 1 turned out itself in the rear of Russians, because they advanced forward too fast, trying to enter in Kharkiv. In first contacts the company lost 3 BTR-4E, but despite this company commander decided to break through back to Kharkiv. The company, heading toward the city, encountered with large columnn of Rosgvardia/OMON, which drove in the same direction. Commander immadiately ordered to attack them - as result almost whole column was destroyed, but from full elimination Russians were saved because two their tanks appeared on the road and engaged UKR company. Two more BTR-4E were knokced out by tanks, so rest of company broke contakt and on full speed reached Kharkiv.

Someone needs to build this out in CM.

[LongLeftFlank]

In the attrition game, if tubes/rails (wear parts) are the firehose nozzles and ammo production is the water, then the road and rail LOCs are the hoses. Which point ought to be being aggressively cut or squeezed off, by Gray Eagles or SOF action? Take all the time you need....

Or, in the immortal words of Oddball:  It's still up! ..... No it ain't.

P.S.  I think the Ukrainian Army is cribbing Oddball's wardrobe.  Гав гав вай!

P.P.S.  One of my very favourite books as a geeky kid (yeah, you can all relate) was Gene Gurney's "the War in the Air" large format photojournal.  I would check it out from the library for months at a time. (And to my eternal joy, I finally acquired a copy in 2015 from an antiquarian in Naples, of all places! my daughter was even interested iin the photos).  Anyhoo, there was this one great drawing -- infographic we'd call it now -- I think reproduced from a newspaper, showing the concept of air interdiction in northern France. Victory Through Air Power! all that. Alas, it doesn't seem to live on the Interwebz.

Edited June 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[akd]

Interesting drone perspective:

https://t.me/savelifeua/876

[fireship4]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Victory Through Air Power!

From a bit of searching you mean the book by Alexander P. de Seversky?  Interesting bit of history, it became a Disney animated short (as well as a Buggs Bunny bit called Victory through Hare Power apparently heheh).

This was the closest thing I could find to the image you mentioned:

Pg. 237, 'Aerial Interdiction' 1994, Eduard Mark - PDF.

[EDIT: Can't help but post some other possibilities, though I can't find one that really matches the style in your reply: 

https://www.sarahsundin.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/AAF-Interdiction-1944-1024x637.jpg

https://markbielski.com/cms/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Breakout_Normandy_Big_Picture-960x732.jpg]

Edited June 8, 2022 by fireship4

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

it's hard to live three months 24/7 as war news translator, so I took small vacations

Well deserved   Hopefully you got some good rest and relaxation while away from the computer.

Selfishly, of course, we are very glad to have you back here as much as you can be.

Steve

[LongLeftFlank]

38 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

From a bit of searching you mean the book by Alexander P. de Seversky?  Interesting bit of history, it became a Disney animated short (as well as a Buggs Bunny bit called Victory through Hare Power apparently heheh).

This was the closest thing I could find to the image you mentioned:

Pg. 237, 'Aerial Interdiction' 1994, Eduard Mark - PDF.

No, but thanks for your efforts. Something more like this, although it isn't the image I was looking for (and the book isn't with me here in Asia).

[Harmon Rabb]

Lavrov gets a though guestion from a Ukrainian reporter in Turkey today regarding Russia's theft of Ukrainian grain.

Notice in his response he said Russia's goal is removing "Neo-Nazi's" from eastern Ukraine rather than the whole country.

 

Edited June 8, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[sburke]

A major Russian radio station was hacked and started broadcasting Ukraine's national anthem and anti-war songs (msn.com)

[sburke]

Russia's Stolen Planes Will Soon Become Worthless Thanks to Bootleg Parts (msn.com)

[sburke]

wonder if this ship will ever sail again.

Russia's long-struggling aircraft carrier has its return to action delayed — again (msn.com)

The return to service of Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov will be delayed another year. Defects in work being done on the ship mean it won't be delivered until 2024, according to state media.
 

[G.I. Joe]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

wonder if this ship will ever sail again.

Russia's long-struggling aircraft carrier has its return to action delayed — again (msn.com)

The return to service of Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov will be delayed another year. Defects in work being done on the ship mean it won't be delivered until 2024, according to state media.
 

Same here, given the impact of sanctions it would not be at all surprising if Admiral Kuznetsov is out of action for good.

Interesting sidebar that three navies currently have Soviet era Ukrainian-built aircraft carriers. Liaoning and INS Vikramaditya were also built in Mykolaiv...

[Combatintman]

Don't think I've seen anyone post this resource before:

Eyes on Russia: The Russia-Ukraine Monitor Map by Cen4infoRes · MapHub

 

[Battlefront.com]

48 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russia's Stolen Planes Will Soon Become Worthless Thanks to Bootleg Parts (msn.com)

Thanks for that!  I already knew about the parts tracing (there was some great reporting years ago about counterfeit aircraft parts) but did not think through what this means once faith in record keeping goes out the window.  Yeah, if I were a leasing company I wouldn't want one of those planes back either.  I am sure nobody would insure it, which is a death sentence right there.

This is yet another example of an argument that "Russian can tough it out" crowd will have difficulty dismissing in a credible way.  Air transport is critical for modern economies, therefore the lack of it is highly detrimental.

Aircraft aren't just moving people around, it's moving parts and goods around quickly.  Russia is geographically MASSIVE, so any artificial constraint on the ability to move things by air is going to have impacts all throughout the economy.  Some guy in Vladivostok messing up a parts order going to Moscow means weeks to sort out, not hours or days.  Now picture that something being the difference between a production line of 500 workers being able to do their job or being furloughed until the part arrives.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Grigb said:

Just decided to add my couple of cents.

Infamous Murz recently stated that LDNR artillery is extremely low on 122mm ammo and Russian Western Military District is running out of 122mm stock. They are urgently converting LDNR artillery to 152mm caliber (D-20 guns from Russian military storages).

As result:

• LDNR is not able to capitalize on fall of Mariupol due to some units are out of 122mm ammo and some units are in the midst of conversion to 152mm. 
• LDNR CB capabilities around Donetsk are negligible now and because of that UKR artillery is highly active there. 

Murz also stated during fire missions they are encountering multiple problems with 152mm guns (D-20) taken from storage. Interestingly, his statement implies they (LDNR and Russians) are unable (unwilling) to thoroughly inspect these guns before sending them to the fight. 

Welcome to the forum and thanks for taking the time to register to contribute to this discussion!

It seems that my reminder that Russia doesn't have endless artillery capabilities was well timed   If we are seeing the tip of the iceberg, we're likely going to have corroborating evidence in the next 1-2 weeks in the form of less artillery strikes front wide, shorter and/or less effective uses in key areas, or something else that indicates a tempo change that isn't readily explained.

The comments about the weapons taken out of storage is of particular interest to me.  I've always presumed that equipment like this goes into storage in whatever state it was in prior to being decommissioned.  That's the lazy and cheap way of doing, which is apparently SOP for Russia.  Which means these mothballed systems run the gamut from "probably usable" to "going to get someone killed using it".

The other interesting point here is this indicates that Russia has run through it's "ready" inventory and is now having to dig around for replacements.  Whether this is because of battlefield losses or wearing them out, it doesn't matter in the near term.  A gun out of service is a gun out of service.  Obviously long term guns that are worn out can be brought back to the battlefield eventually.  But in a timeframe that matters?  I don't think that's very likely.

The time and resources it takes to refurbish one D-20, for example, is probably not all that bad.  If all the parts are accessible to the shop, maybe a couple of days?  But what is the throughput capacity of that shop?  1 gun at a time?  10 guns at a time?  How long can it go at max output before it runs into problems sourcing materials?

This sort of bottleneck problem is not specific to Russia, though I do think Russia is likely less capable of muscling through it quickly as other countries.  Therefore, unless Russia is in possession of a magic wand I don't see them getting many guns taken out of the fight back into the fight within a timeframe that matters to this war.

Steve

[Centurian52]

On 6/4/2022 at 9:59 AM, Battlefront.com said:

So a big thanks to you guys for helping keep this discussion active and productive.  From a professional standpoint, I need to understand warfare at all levels in order to do the job that you guys effectively pay me to do.  And that is make the most realistic simulation of warfare possible.  I think we're all doing a pretty good job making sure that happens

I get the distinct impression that Combat Mission is only going to get better and better