How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

The entire M777 machine is

The Mars Climate Orbiter called - it wants its metric-imperial conversions back.

[dan/california]

 

45 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

Interesting! I was wondering if that was going to end up being an issue. I have a re-branded Holden Monaro, fine car, but an international mix of parts. The drive-train uses good old SAE and everything else is metric. Always have to keep a proper mix of the tools in the go bag.
 

The contract Ukraine just signed with Poland makes it pretty clear that is going to be their SPG going forward. That will give them ~80 of them total. I assume the will be happy to equip all their towed units with 777s eventually.

All of this is a classic case of doing something in a very great hurry because their just isn't any other choice. Things will break that wouldn't have if we had started equipping Ukraine three years ago in a rational way. People are DYING who wouldn't be if we had started equipping Ukraine three years ago in a rational way. We didn't all we can do is accept that doing it now this way is unavoidably inefficient, and just keep sending them everything they can physically use, as fast as it can be moved.

We can also get the bleep over idiotic fine distinctions in what we send. They need MLRS yesterday, they need better AA yesterday. They need those bleeping Marders YESTERDAY. Brave people are dying, and a fair chunk of the third world is getting very hungry while we worry about distinctions that just don't make any sense. The Russians would attack the supply bases in Poland if they thought they could, and still have an army three days later. They haven't, they aren't going to because the only two scenarios are they lose in days instead of months, or civilization gets an unpleasant reset, and even the Russians are not that stupid.

Edited June 7, 2022 by dan/california
spelling

[Vanir Ausf B]

 

[Huba]

Summary of Arestovych's daily update. To be taken with appropriate grain of salt of course, but what caught my attention is the notion of large weapons supplies to arrive by ship in 2-3 weeks. He might mean just the pledged US M113s, but on the other hand maybe the time has arrived for more serious western-made AFVs to start appearing in Ukraine? Next Ramstein group meeting is to take place on June 15th (this time in person, not on telco like previous one), and it always resulted in upping the game a bit, I don't think it will disappoint this time either.

 

Edited June 8, 2022 by Huba

[The_Capt]

33 minutes ago, Huba said:

Out of curiosity I got back to the beginning of this magnificent thread to see what was being said about this war when it was just unfolding. Out of many great (one could say almost prophetic) predictions then made , this one caught my eye. Arguably we have already crossed that line around week ago when Ukrainians promised not to attack Russia's proper with the new MLRS they are about to receive.

Prophetically misspelled…sigh.

Fixed it.  Wow, that was on page #32!  We have covered a lot of ground since then.

Edited June 8, 2022 by The_Capt

[G.I. Joe]

26 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

The contract Ukraine just signed with Poland makes it pretty clear that is going to be their SPG going forward. That will give them ~80 of them total. I assume the will be happy to equip all their towed units with 777s eventually.

Krab seems like a very logical choice, I have often thought that once the current war stops it makes sense for Ukraine and Poland to pursue a policy of deep standardization with each other beyond NATO interoperability requirements. Given that there is clearly an emerging Special Relationship between the two countries and their requirements are very similar, I don't doubt it will be a consideration.

Obviously there will be exceptions - PzH 2000 might be worth hanging onto as a "silver bullet" in a high low mix with Krab* and Ukraine may well look at a heavier fighter such as F-15EX to replace the Su-24 and Su-27 fleet in addition to the Polish F-16 / F-35 mix, for example. But as an overall policy, I think we might see a lot of the same gear in Poland and Ukraine going forward.

*Edit - unless Krab has comparable rate of fire and the ability lay down simultaneous impact salvos, in which case it might be superfluous - I haven't had time to check.

Edited June 8, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[Vanir Ausf B]

Latest doom posting from Girkin:

"The internal political situation in the Russian Federation is also very similar to that of the eve of 1905. The authorities are frankly UNPOPULAR and are often despised in all socially active layers of the society. They only hold on thanks to bureaucracy - outrageously inefficient and thoroughly (disgustingly) corrupt. The Armed Forces are demonstrating the same depressing inefficiency, while its command - inability for adequate management (Shoygu and Gerasimov are as far from Kuropatikin in their professionalism as a petty wedding toastmaster from Bolshoi Theatre performer). In addition, instinctively feeling their own "anti-effectiveness" and unpopularity, the authorities are clearly afraid of conducting even the most necessary of the mobilization measures - afraid of "shaking up the stability". But when they do decide (the course of the war will inevitably force them to) - they will do it in the very last moment, when the "trust credit" from the society will be fully exhausted, while the deteriorating socio-economic situation of the population will be capable of provoking an explosion of anger."

 

 

[Huba]

27 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Krab seems like a very logical choice, I have often thought that once the current war stops it makes sense for Ukraine and Poland to pursue a policy of deep standardization with each other beyond NATO interoperability requirements. Given that there is clearly an emerging Special Relationship between the two countries and their requirements are very similar, I don't doubt it will be a consideration.

Obviously there will be exceptions - PzH 2000 might be worth hanging onto as a "silver bullet" in a high low mix with Krab* and Ukraine may well look at a heavier fighter such as F-15EX to replace the Su-24 and Su-27 fleet in addition to the Polish F-16 / F-35 mix, for example. But as an overall policy, I think we might see a lot of the same gear in Poland and Ukraine going forward.

*Edit - unless Krab has comparable rate of fire and the ability lay down simultaneous impact salvos, in which case it might be superfluous - I haven't had time to check.

Krab's advertised RoF is 3 round/10 seconds, 6 rounds/minute for three minutes, and 2 round/minute sustained. It can do MRSI too, probably not quite as good as PzH2000, but good enough. I imagine that UA will want to keep all the weapons they have in the inventory after the war ends, but gradually replace them with something managable in peactime - looks like for SPGs they have already settled

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Recent Ukraine TV video in the Kharkiv counter attack area with some TD units.  Closed Caption is in English.

It's a good look at the TD in the area and their attitudes.  At one point they describe a hit and run activity and said that's all they felt they could do, so that's all they tried to do.  The Russians apparently didn't expect an attack.  One of the soldiers was asked if they has burned up all the Russian stuff around them and he said nope, they can't take credit for it as a different "department" did that work (artillery).

Towards the end there's some time spent with a completely devastated column of Russian vehicles, many of them OMAN.  Some bits and pieces of bodies remain, but largely cleaned up.  No ability to know when that particular fighting happened, but at least some of the vehicles are really recent.  In fact, there was the first instance I've seen of a Belarus vehicle in Russian service.

 

Absolutely awesome video! It reminds me of a story a friend and coworker (a retired U.S. Army Lt. Col helicopter squadron Commander) told me one day at lunch. When he was a brand new Lt., during our Invasion of Grenada, he had just landed his Blackhawk helicopter at a U.S. Marine position in support of a Marine mission. He had walked over to the Marine Commander, a Major for his mission briefing, when some snipers began firing at them. My friend ran back to the helicopter while the Major just stood there and watched him. The Major asked “ Is there a problem Lieutenant?” To which my friend said”Sir, they’re shooting at us!” The Major replied “Yes, they are. I expect my Marines will take take care of it shortly.” A minute or two later he heard a couple of bursts and the incoming fire stopped. My friend very sheepishly walked back to continue the mission briefing by the Major who didn’t say another word regarding the sniping. My friend said he learned more about leadership from that Major in those few minutes than he learned at West Point in the four years he attended there. He told me it was a number of lessons that he never forgot. Those soldiers in the video might have been TD force, but they were definitely soldiers, veterans, and warriors. Slava!

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Calamine Waffles said:

The GM-352 chassis used by some earlier Tunguskas is made in Minsk.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GM_chassis

Interesting.  But is it likely that Russia would have any of these in service prior to the war?  If so, then maybe this isn't the first sighting of Russia's "deal" with Belarus.

JonS, that was good for a chuckle.  You have to think that somewhere there is an otherwise very smart engineer stuck flipping burgers for the rest of his life hoping nobody recognizes who he once was.

Steve

[Vet 0369]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

The Mars Climate Orbiter called - it wants its metric-imperial conversions back.

The six “Ps!” Prior planning prevents piss poor performance!

[JonS]

7 Ps : prior preparation and planning prevents ...

[JonS]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

an otherwise very smart engineer stuck flipping burgers

Eh, I blame the programme manager - he's the one responsible for making SURE discrete elements of the project interact properly. Mind you, no self respecting engineer would be using non-metric in the first place, so theres that.

[gnarly]

3 minutes ago, JonS said:

 Mind you, no self respecting engineer would be using non-metric in the first place, so theres that.

Politicians, however....

 

https://www.euronews.com/culture/2022/05/30/uk-to-revive-imperial-measurements-to-bring-back-british-culture-and-heritage-says-mp

 

[Sorry, off-topic...]

[Battlefront.com]

56 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Latest doom posting from Girkin:

Interesting that he likens the situation to 1905 rather than 1917, the former being more obscure for US based historians than the latter.  Not only does Girkin seem to understand this war quite well, he also is a lover of Russian military history.  He was, maybe still is, a military reinactor for those who didn't know.  Therefore, if he thinks the situation is looking like 1905 I'm inclined to defer to him.

His other observations about Putin likely waiting until it is too late does seem to be likely.

[dan/california]

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

JonS, that was good for a chuckle.  You have to think that somewhere there is an otherwise very smart engineer stuck flipping burgers for the rest of his life hoping nobody recognizes who he once was.

I still want video of the meeting where they figured that out. It is the world historical example of smart people doing doing stupid things.

As far as the bolts on the howitzer goes anyone who had ever turned a wrench in the mud, or far worse snow, would have made very sure there were only three sizes, and had a rock solid place on the gun to clamp a set. They should all be simple accessible hex bolts where an adjustable wrench would do in a pinch. I used to work on ski lifts for a living, I have seen unpleasant bolts in bad, frozen, 50 ft in the air places. Never once been happy about it.

edit: I am quite certain incoming fire would not improve the experience.

Edited June 8, 2022 by dan/california

[Huba]

1 minute ago, gnarly said:

Politicians, however....

 

https://www.euronews.com/culture/2022/05/30/uk-to-revive-imperial-measurements-to-bring-back-british-culture-and-heritage-says-mp

 

[Sorry, off-topic...]

Oh dear Lord... 

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

Oh dear Lord... 

Because British industry is doing so well with Brexit...

[OldSarge]

4 minutes ago, JonS said:

Eh, I blame the programme manager - he's the one responsible for making SURE discrete elements of the project interact properly. Mind you, no self respecting engineer would be using non-metric in the first place, so theres that.

I'm a bit surprised  that SI units aren't fully embraced and written into every DoD/MoD contract. It makes everything so much easier and eliminates embarrassing 'Oops' moments. But how to tell the 'Pointy Hair' ones that.

[Vanir Ausf B]

Hope they are ok.

 

[JonS]

I suspect the change probably happened when the M777 design was uplifted from BAE and moved to Hattiesburg for production.

Edited June 8, 2022 by JonS

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting that he likens the situation to 1905 rather than 1917, the former being more obscure for US based historians than the latter.  Not only does Girkin seem to understand this war quite well, he also is a lover of Russian military history.  He was, maybe still is, a military reinactor for those who didn't know.  Therefore, if he thinks the situation is looking like 1905 I'm inclined to defer to him.

His other observations about Putin likely waiting until it is too late does seem to be likely.

I'm still waiting for some of the Baltic Fleet ships to try to make a hazardous voyage a̶r̶o̶u̶n̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶w̶o̶r̶l̶d̶ through the Volga to reinforce battered P̶a̶c̶i̶f̶i̶c̶ ̶̶̶̶ Black Sea Fleet. 

[Battlefront.com]

Missed this one the other day.  It's from Dmitri, our intrepid translator of all things interesting (including Girkin's rants).  This is his thoughts on whether the GUR/SBU intercepted calls are real or fake.  His conclusion, supported by a lot of persuasive arguments, is that they are legit.  It's worth a read:

https://wartranslated.com/can-we-believe-the-russian-phone-calls-intercepted-and-published-by-ukrainian-sbu-and-gur/

Steve

[Calamine Waffles]

45 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting.  But is it likely that Russia would have any of these in service prior to the war?  If so, then maybe this isn't the first sighting of Russia's "deal" with Belarus.

Of course. Belarus was a major manufacturer of certain automotive chassis during the Soviet era. The MAZ and MTZ plants in Minsk made things like the MAZ-543 (which you know better as the truck chassis that carries such famous things as the Elbrus (Scud-B) and the Smerch), the MAZ-537 heavy hauler normally used for tank transport, the MAZ-7910 (S-300), the MAZ-7917 (Topol), the MZKT-79221 (Topol-M), and the GM-355 tracked chassis (Tor).

Edited June 8, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[Battlefront.com]

Another intense video from a British volunteer.  CASEVAC and withdrawal in a forest.  Looks to be a company sized force.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/v6ywko/another_video_of_ben_grant_son_of_uk_mp_fighting/

It seems this was the first video with the one passed around a few days ago with them engaging the BTR ("tank") is the second video.

Steve