How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[c3k]

"Fog Eating Snow". Yes, the Ukraine nibbles and bits approach is working. But, they will absolutely need to continue to attrit Russian artillery if they are to win and regain their pre-2014 borders (I include the Crimea). To do this, they need long-range artillery especially MLRS. ATACMs would be nice.   300km range would allow Ukraine to set the launchers back in their "safe" areas and launch against identified Russian batteries (whether inside Ukraine's borders or firing from inside Russia. Shrug: that's Russia's choice.).

Regardless if Ukraine gains the 300km+ guided weaponry, they need to out-range and use effective counter-battery fire to eliminate Russian ranged weapons. THAT, and only that, will allow them to advance to (and maintain) their borders.

As far as Crimea: destroy the Kerch bridge; interdict any shipping trying to resupply Crimea; pressure the Perekop Isthmus. Make Sevastopol a maritime graveyard for the Russian navy. Then move in.

[danfrodo]

27 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Incredible.  And Putin hasn't even visited his troops in the rear, not to mention at the front.  Well, unless you want to include him visiting SFB guys pretending to be wounded.

This move was beyond ballsy.  Ukraine has been dominating the PR war since the start, yet keeps finding new ways to humiliate Russia.  The same day the President of Ukraine, who has been targeted with some large number of assassination attempts, goes to the front lines and returns safely, Russia loses two high level leaders while the most senior leader cowers in the Kremlin.  Well, that says a lot about how this war is going for Russia, doesn't it?

It will be interesting to see how the ultra hardcore Russian warmongers take to this news.  These guys are not going to overlook the symbology of this, especially now that they are already expressing doubts.

Steve

I wonder how (if) this will be covered in state TV?  I'd say it was all faked and that Zelensky was actually in Lviv or even inside Poland because he's a spineless coward.  I would've been saying stuff like that from the start.  Enough of the brainwashed will buy it that it will take on a life of its own.  Have a point of contact for all the pundit clowns to check in every day w the current message and repeat it ad nauseum on every show.  It goes on all day, every day, in the US, and the talking point discipline here is really quite remarkable. 

Which is another odd thing:  if Putin can tell the populace anything he wants, why does it actually matter how much of Donbas he controls?  Who's gonna know?  We keep hearing about how Putin needs this or that to get enough victory to go on the defensive, but really why does it even matter?  He's got plenty and can simply claim whatever he wants.

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

Case in point - this got posted a couple of hours ago (it's twitter so should probably wait for corroboration but posting anyway)

 

Will put a link, there's another tweet with a photo of a corpse attached.

https://twitter.com/uasupport999/status/1533586195388801030

 

I don't think I have 14 dead - assuming Lieutenant General Roman Berdnikov is confirmed.

KIA

MG Andrey Kolesnikov, Russia’s 29th Combined Arms Army commander
Andrei Sukhovetsky, Deputy Commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army
Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, First Deputy Commander Of The 41st Army
Major-general Oleg Mitiayev, commander of 150th motor-rifle division
General-Lieutenant Andrey Mordvichev commander 8th CAA 
Major-General Tushaev (Chechen)
LTG Yakov Rezantsev, Russia’s 49th CAA commander, in Chornobaivka near Kherson.
MG Vladimir Frolov, deputy commander of 8th Guard CAA, Southern military district
Major General Simonov Deputy chief of Electronic Warfare Troops of Armed Forces of Russian Federation
Major General Kutuzov Roman Vladimirovich
Lieutenant General Roman Berdnikov Commander of the Russian Federation’s 29th Army

Major General (*ret.) Banamat Botashev Russian Air Force 

WIA
Major General Serhiy Nirkov was seriously wounded; Chief of Staff - Deputy Commander of the 35th Combined Arns Army
Major General Andriy Serytsky Chief of Staff - Deputy Commander of the 36th Combined Arms Army was seriously wounded;

[chuckdyke]

They may rest in pieces. 

[Fenris]

Interesting because the mine suspected of being used, see second part of tweet.  Essentially an automatically triggered panzerfaust sitting on the side of the road waiting for something to drive past.

 

 

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

They may rest in pieces. 

Lol

[G.I. Joe]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

For quite some time I've been thinking that NATO should transform into a broader military pact that includes Asia theater.  Back in the old days it could be argued that what happened there wasn't as important for Europe and vice versa.  Really, we're all one big unhappy family now and Europe's economic interests could be seriously threatened by an outbreak of war in Asia (North Korea, China, etc.).  In fact, it's unlikely that a large war in Asia wouldn't involve all NATO members anyway, so why not get the deterrence in place now?  It's worked to keep Russia contained for the most part.  Even though NATO failed to stop Putin from attacking Ukraine, it has significantly limited his options and is one of the reasons Russia will lose this war.

But that's just me dreaming of New World Order 2.0

Steve

I know I was reflecting on the possibility of an Asian counterpart to NATO, sort of SEATO 2.0 if you will (but with a more northerly focus), a few pages ago, but simply expanding NATO itself might actually be a more practical approach.

Admitting first Japan, then South Korea (or vice-versa) into NATO might be a lot easier than hammering out all the issues of creating a new alliance from scratch. Especially since Japan does have maritime borders (and disputed territories) with Russia and South Korea is definitely close enough to be directly threatened.

Conversely, separate alliances would allow for at least the possibility of keeping a regional conflict contained, which could be useful in some instances.

7 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

The problem with a NATO type mutual defense bloc in the Indo-Pacific region is that the Indo-Pacific region is a lot more heterogeneous and less integrated than Europe + North America is. Many of these nations have very different and often competing strategic interests, and some (Japan and Korea) still bear significant historical grudges.

+1

Excellent point...a formal alliance in Asia does pose a lot of complicated challenges. On the other hand, Greece and Turkey have managed to be in NATO alongside each other since 1952. Also, it's probably not too much of a stretch to say that the Cold War and the existence of NATO helped pave the way towards the EU in some ways. Without wishing to sound like too much of a wide-eyed idealist, I like to think that Japan and South Korea entering into a formal defensive alliance with each other could be a catalyst for two of the world's major democracies to work towards reconciliation and improve their peacetime relations in a mutually beneficial way. Might at least be worth a try...

But, there are other obstacles - Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution could still be an issue, although it has been reinterpreted to allow for coming to the defense of an ally.

There is also the issue that (if I understand correctly) NATO's constitution requires members to be democracies, which is why Spain and Portugal were kept out until Franco and Salazar were gone (although Greece stayed in during the junta years, so that rule hasn't necessarily been enforced on pre-existing members who backslide). This would, for example, prevent Vietnam from joining... Of course, this is less of an issue in Asia now than it used to be (Taiwan and South Korea would have been ineligible until late in the Cold War), but is still a consideration.

(As an aside, if Vietnam were to end up following a path paralleling Taiwan and South Korea -becoming an autocratic U.S. ally that slowly morphs into a functioning democracy-, it could count as possibly the most dramatic example of losing the war but winning the peace ever).

However, the biggest stumbling block in my mind is Taiwan's lack of formal recognition as a country. It would be extremely difficult to include them in any such alliance, and their security is arguably the paramount concern here. Of course NATO Asia or an "Asian NATO" would add a certain weight to the tacit U.S. policy of standing ready to defend Taiwan...

Edited June 6, 2022 by G.I. Joe
word choice adjustment

[The_MonkeyKing]

[chuckdyke]

20 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Admitting first Japan,

Very good idea and leave Australia out of it. A brilliant idea. 

[G.I. Joe]

31 minutes ago, chuckdyke said:

Very good idea and leave Australia out of it. A brilliant idea. 

Didn't mean to leave Australia out at all! Might be one of the easiest admissions to get through... Kishida's possible attendance at the NATO summit just had my mind focused on the geographic frontlines close to continental Asia. Australia is obviously a key player, I was just thinking in terms of who is most in danger of coming under direct attack and requiring assistance.

Edited June 6, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[Huba]

3 hours ago, c3k said:

"Fog Eating Snow". Yes, the Ukraine nibbles and bits approach is working. But, they will absolutely need to continue to attrit Russian artillery if they are to win and regain their pre-2014 borders (I include the Crimea). To do this, they need long-range artillery especially MLRS. ATACMs would be nice.   300km range would allow Ukraine to set the launchers back in their "safe" areas and launch against identified Russian batteries (whether inside Ukraine's borders or firing from inside Russia. Shrug: that's Russia's choice.).

Regardless if Ukraine gains the 300km+ guided weaponry, they need to out-range and use effective counter-battery fire to eliminate Russian ranged weapons. THAT, and only that, will allow them to advance to (and maintain) their borders.

As far as Crimea: destroy the Kerch bridge; interdict any shipping trying to resupply Crimea; pressure the Perekop Isthmus. Make Sevastopol a maritime graveyard for the Russian navy. Then move in.

If there is no breakthrough in re-opening Ukrainian grain trade, I think this is the direction we are heading at. Somebody mentioned earlier that precision weapons deliveries to Ukraine is a case of boiling frog slowly - first there were "no weapons able to strike Russian territories", now "Russian artillery shooting across the border is fair game", next logical steps is targeting air and naval bases.

BTW, Novorosyisk is around 350km from current UA lines, quite possibly it already is in ATACMS range. With big enough expenditure, it should be possible to get rid of all of major BSF ships and their support facilities. That would only leave aircraft to interdict the trade, technically doable but politically unacceptable solution in my opinion.

[chuckdyke]

45 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Didn't mean to leave Australia out at all!

There is the ANZUS treaty that stands for Australia, New Zealand, US. From the time I spent in SE Asia it is a combination of Autocracies and Theocracies. The countries most suitable are the ASEAN countries who have managed to live very peacefully with each other. Kind regards and happy gaming. 

[Taranis]

"A Ukrainian soldier rests before returning to the Donetsk front line, in the Donbass, on June 5, 2022. BERNAT ARMANGUE / AP"

[Huba]

Russians are again attacking in Severodonetsk:

 

[LongLeftFlank]

18 hours ago, dan/california said:

 

Well, it certainly appears Туман has met @The_Capt's "fog eating snow".

***

This one definitely falls into the category of unconfirmed,  but I've seen it in a couple of places now:

https://poland.postsen.com/news/11623/General-Mikhail-Zusko-arrested-in-Russia-Here’s-why-–-o2.html

https://charter97.org/en/news/2022/6/1/500635/

...The commander of 58th CAA was (allegedly) arrested, variously for (a) failure to meet his objectives (b) being of Ukrainian (Volhyn) origin (c) betraying his army's positions outside Mykilyaev to the enemy.

@sburke

Edited June 6, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[LongLeftFlank]

Scenario 2. The Tractor Works

Interesting street map, very Rodger MacGowan (/genuflects), but the controlled zones may be fanciful. Don't have his source.

P.S. This tweeter (who I doubt is actually fighting, but I could be wrong) also posts a number of graphic but tactically non-informative images and videos of Russians getting killed.

If you get off on that, be my guest, but *please* don't repost them here; they are simply war pron, regardless of which particular humans are suffering and dying. I think we had that convo already. Cheers.

2.  Wishful thinking aside, it looks like the UA has withdrawn into the industrial district again, presumably having done what they intended (disrupt a Russian buildup?). Another good map by a French military analyst (and some sobering commentary for those 'preannouncing another Russian rout).

3. Caption: Bridge across the Seversky Donets on the highway Slavyansk-Liman (UA tank is headed north, IFV headed south, per thread)

Brother @Haiduk, I hope all is well. Is this (dam?) viaduct still up, or is this old footage?

 

 

Edited June 6, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[slysniper]

On 6/4/2022 at 11:29 PM, Heirloom_Tomato said:

The average load of grain we ship/recieve here at work, in Canada, is in the 40 metric tonnes range. In order to meet the 6,000,000 metric tonnes a month it works out to 5,000 truckloads of grain to be moved every single day. 

The new and modern rail cars here hold 100 metric tonnes. The new modern grain handling facilities are being setup to accommodate trains of 134 cars in length with load/unload times of 12 hours per train. This means with the most modern equipment and facilities, 15 trains need to be loaded and leave Ukraine every day. If they are using systems designed 30 years ago, it becomes 20 trains a day. If facilities are any older, the three "modern" elevators around me were all built in the sixties, then it will be closer to 40 trains. Of course this all assumes everything is going to work perfectly without any maintenance issues. 

If you are lucky enough to live in a location with a lawn, it is not too late to rip up some grass and plant some vegetables. 

well, the 5000 trucks per day would represent almost 4 trucks per minute.

Of course its not a logical answer, even if there was multible route that could be developed as to flow for the movement of the grain, there would still be the logistical challenges as to fuel and such.  So of course its not the answer.

But I look at it if you even manage 500 trucks a day, well at least you have 10%,  10% is better than none.

Rail system is not the answer, even if it is possible to get it working as to infastructure issues. 

No way to increase the availability of grain cars that would carry the product, not like there be a lot of them sitting around available to be used to form the needed trains. So again, not the answer, but At least some of the stocks could be saved.

The amount of food from the region is just amazing as to the numbers. 

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, slysniper said:

well, the 5000 trucks per day would represent almost 4 trucks per minute.

Of course its not a logical answer, even if there was multible route that could be developed as to flow for the movement of the grain, there would still be the logistical challenges as to fuel and such.  So of course its not the answer.

But I look at it if you even manage 500 trucks a day, well at least you have 10%,  10% is better than none.

Rail system is not the answer, even if it is possible to get it working as to infastructure issues. 

No way to increase the availability of grain cars that would carry the product, not like there be a lot of them sitting around available to be used to form the needed trains. So again, not the answer, but At least some of the stocks could be saved.

The amount of food from the region is just amazing as to the numbers. 

Before the whole war thing started, there was something interesting regarding bulk freight from the east - some of the coal Poland was importing was being brought in ISO containers instead of bulk carrying train cars/ lorries. IIRC it was more convenient to transport it to end users (not huge power plants, but businesses that re-selled it to individual consumers for heating purposes). There is some additional capacity to be found in solutions like this, but I'm pretty sure it is already calculated into the aforementioned 600K tons/ month current capacity.

Supply Ukraine with ATACMS, sink BSF, establish naval patrols on the way to Odessa - there hardly is any other way. Negotiations with Russia are seemingly going nowhere at the moment.

[LongLeftFlank]

On 5/22/2022 at 9:08 PM, LongLeftFlank said:

 

Most of them were in their first good pair of boots. When the boots wore out, they'd be ready to listen.

By the fourth month of the war, the boots had worn out...

....the Made In China boots? Maybe this is a new Trent Telenko area

2.  22 minute Ukrainian doco in link (mostly in English) with Foreign Legion fighters. The interview with the unit CO early on has the most military substance, including some remarks that a number of Americans bailed because they couldn't adjust to being on the outgunned side. It's mainly human interest after that.

 

Edited June 6, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[AlsatianFelix]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Incredible.  And Putin hasn't even visited his troops in the rear, not to mention at the front.  Well, unless you want to include him visiting SFB guys pretending to be wounded.

This move was beyond ballsy.  Ukraine has been dominating the PR war since the start, yet keeps finding new ways to humiliate Russia.  The same day the President of Ukraine, who has been targeted with some large number of assassination attempts, goes to the front lines and returns safely, Russia loses two high level leaders while the most senior leader cowers in the Kremlin.  Well, that says a lot about how this war is going for Russia, doesn't it?

It will be interesting to see how the ultra hardcore Russian warmongers take to this news.  These guys are not going to overlook the symbology of this, especially now that they are already expressing doubts.

Steve

Everything good that Ukraine does, Russia copies soon after. Putin will visit Russian troops within 2 weeks. Ukraine will target him. This is the way.

[Kinophile]

Nope, he'll send a body double, deep fake his face on and meet with that worker/wounded soldier a third time.

 

[Kinophile]

Maj Gen Roman Kutuzov was killed leading an assault on a Ukrainian settlement in the region, a reporter with the state-owned Rossiya 1 said.  Alexander Sladkov said Gen Kutuzov had been commanding troops from the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic.  "The general had led soldiers into attack, as if there are not enough colonels"....

Interesting. 

What are the bets the FSB was also closing in...

[LongLeftFlank]

From the pro-RU side of the hill, with love. Not. Thermobaric rockets at short range.

Hmm, like Azovstal was some kind of brilliant Russian victory, sport?  I think that's the general plan, actually (hostages, yeah ok, sure), whenever the Ivans get around to being able to attack it. And if you should get through that, there's the refinery complex at Novodruzhesk, with more bunkers and tunnels.... 

But wait, that's not all!

Or else a few thousand sappers could bleed whatever's left of the Russian infantry white in these various Rust Belt steel mazes for freeking months.  It's not like they haven't had time to prep this entire zone or anything.

Why would the UA yield this zone at all?  Fear of a 'cauldron?' 

So they can simply get shelled by Grads out in the open country in front of Siviersk?

Edited June 6, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[fireship4]

11 hours ago, sburke said:

Major General Vitaly Gerasimov, First Deputy Commander Of The 41st Army

Isn't this disputed?

[LongLeftFlank]

17 minutes ago, fireship4 said:

Isn't this disputed?

Different Gerasimov?

It's Mordvichev whom I think was declared fatally wounded in Mariupol, but was then subsequently seen sucking up to the TikTok Imam on one of his photo op visits.

....Wait, this is all in that BBC piece @Kinophile posted just above.

Edited June 6, 2022 by LongLeftFlank