How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

42 minutes ago, Suleyman said:

I just seen a video of a tank heavy large convoy heading to the Donbas front, company of T-80BVs (12) plus a couple BMP-2 platoons and a lot of infantry with their truck carriers and MTLBs. 

A very weak BTG:

 

Edited May 20, 2022 by akd

[chrisl]

1 hour ago, Armorgunner said:

A really interesting story, from a Russian soldier. In one of the 22 so called BTG´s in the Izyum salient. His company had 13 men, after he and his friends arrived.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/5/19/2099028/-Ukraine-Update-A-Russian-volunteer-s-story-lays-waste-to-the-myth-of-the-Russian-BTG

So it's getting to be impossible to guess how many actual live humans Russia has anywhere.

A brigade ls likely to be just one BTG

A BTG is likely to be at 50% of TOE and its actual fighting force might be a single company. Even a "full strength" BTG is probably only 80% and composed of guys who just met, have never trained together, and may have minimal training.

And a company might be as few as a dozen guys.

So in the worst case, there will be a brigade on the map and it will be a dozen guys in real life.

Normally, I think the Russians would value this level of confusion because it would mean that it's impossible for the UA to guess force strengths.  But in this case, I suspect that NATO ISR that's being fed to Ukraine is better than Russian C3I, and Ukraine may actually have better information on actual strength of Russian forces than Moscow does.

 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

2.  But for this observer, a forced evacuation by UA of its 2014 Donbas fortified lines cannot be readily 'spun' as anything but a strategic UA defeat and a desperately needed Russian 'victory'. That is regardless of the cost, whose accounting truly matters only to Moscow, frankly. I take it as given they will eventually start arguing for a cease fire, and "facts on the ground" will matter, a lot. 

3. As of today, all the handwavy confident theories and Twitter anecdata we keep sharing here (me included!) from 2-3 echelons up seem to amount to 'the Russian is finished.' or 'just kick in the door and the whole rotten structure caves in'. Saying it just don't make it so, any more than it did for the original theorist in question.  And believe you me, I've been deeply immersed in those theories since Day One, and patiently waiting for them to show up in force!

5.  So, show us, please! those systemic 'imminent collapse' theories in train, today, on the ground. Today! Not in some vague future halcyon period that happens, umm, over the summer once the UA finally gluts itself with NATO armaments and knowhow, while entire RA units actually mutiny or defect en masse (not just anecdotally), and huge banners and crowds preaching 'Peace Bread and Land' appear in Red Square.

6.  This is a tactical wargaming board. It looks very much to me like the Russians have just turned the tables, operationally if not yet tactically. By finally 'securing' Donbas plus the land bridge, in the very way they said they would do back in March, once it became clear their Czechoslovakia putsch to take the whole country had explosively s&&t the bed....

Whoa there!  So I have taken a few days away because this great Russian offensive has taken on all the glam of watching a blind goat wooing a virgin armadillo.  So we are talking about that 7km "blitz" and a couple UA TD outfits bailing, right?  I mean did I miss the fall of Lviv or something?

So, I disagree that this is "strategic", hell it probably is not operational but we will see if the RA can actually advance more than 20kms before it runs out of gas.  We have been here before.  There was the terrible Izyum offensive that was poised to "pinch off and crush the UA defenders" in some sort of Failais Part Deux, which petered out to whatever that melanoma looking thing has become.  Then the imminent crossing of the S-D River, which turned out to be a catastrophe.  And now the Russians take 7km and we are at the End of Days?

"Imminent collapse" - how many times does this need to happen before people get the point?  The RA has already collapsed twice, strategically and operationally - even if I grant that the UA may have "collapsed" tactically at Popasna.  First was the RA collapse of an entire front in the North, we still remember that part right?  That was likely the turning point in this war and was a collapse by any standard.  Then we have seen another operational level collapse around Kharkiv, my understanding of military theory is that when you are the invader and have withdrawn until the enemy is at your border, things are not going well.

2 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

7.  Meanwhile the UA, for all our fond hopes and armchair projecting, shows no sign yet of being able to mount counterattacks above local/ battalion scale, sustained for about 3 days march (on foot!). Such 18th century tactics will simply not suffice to recover the 20% of their territory in Russian hands today, once those bastards dig in. Yes, there is no question they will figure it out, this particular 'tech' predates gunpowder. And Russians are historically masters at this art. 

8.  I am an amateur in military matters, but I am also a businessman with 25 years experience in emerging markets (many of them 'frontier', which is to say, distressed). If the above situation 'congeals' into a cease fire, it will leave Ukraine as a devastated and impoverished no-mans land, far worse off than 2014. Bloodlands 2022. Not a bulwark or entrepot for modern Europe. No private capital will dare to invest there. Ukraine might as well reach an arrangement with Putin at that point.

So the real question here is "can the UA do operational offensive?"  And the jury is still out to be honest.  That operation around Kharkiv (a much higher priority than the villages in the Donbas) demonstrated that the UA can re-take ground and pretty quickly.  How well the RA was dug in, how the UA did it and is it repeatable are the unknowns.

We have talked at length about the Russian problems defending a line approximately the same length as the Western Front with a fraction of the troops needed. The line density is something like 100 men per km with what they were showing, and that is stuffing the line with replacements straight from the recruiting depot.  I don't care what the Russian grandfathers were good at, there is a force-space reality here that is going to be impossible to make airtight without another 1 million men and the equipment to arm them.

Meanwhile Ukraine has a 3 month head start in mobilization, I personally think that the UA has more combat ready troops than the RA at the moment and everyday they are getting more with better equipment.  While Russia continues its downward spiral economically and militarily.

As to post-ceasefire (if it happens - Ukraine is signaling the other way, and losing a few dozen kms in the Donbas is likely not to break a nation who had guns within range of its capital) - we had better be ready to pony up and re-build Ukraine a la Marshal Plan, or there was no point in the sunken costs.  Re-building national infrastructure will likely sustain the Ukrainian economy in the short to middle term, in the long term private industry will show up because they are a greedy bunch and this is a market filled with US greenbacks for reconstruction.  We need a functional and well defended Ukraine very badly right now because it will mean the "global order" won this war, and we are willing a pay a lot to ensure that happens (or should be).  We need a bright and shiny Ukraine as a demonstration that the Western based global order still works.  This needs to be a lesson for Russia, and more so for China that we will not let the pen that writes the rules go easily.  If we fail, then we deserve what happens next.

Edited May 20, 2022 by The_Capt

[Suleyman]

54 minutes ago, akd said:

A very weak BTG:

 

Indeed. The tanks are the biggest threat, the infantry is probably gonna be playing defense.

[dan/california]

50 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Whoa there!  So I have taken a few days away because this great Russian offensive has taken on all the glam of watching a blind goat wooing a virgin armadillo.  So we are talking about that 7km "blitz" and a couple UA TD outfits bailing, right?  I mean did I miss the fall of Lviv or something?

So, I disagree that this is "strategic", hell it probably is not operational but we will see if the RA can actually advance more than 20kms before it runs out of gas.  We have been here before.  There was the terrible Izyum offensive that was poised to "pinch off and crush the UA defenders" in some sort of Failais Part Deux, which petered out to whatever that melanoma looking thing has become.  Then the imminent crossing of the S-D River, which turned out to be a catastrophe.  And now the Russians take 7km and we are at the End of Days?

"Imminent collapse" - how many times does this need to happen before people get the point?  The RA has already collapsed twice, strategically and operationally - even if I grant that the UA may have "collapsed" tactically at Popasna.  First was the RA collapse of an entire front in the North, we still remember that part right?  That was likely the turning point in this war and was a collapse by any standard.  Then we have seen another operational level collapse around Kharkiv, my understanding of military theory is that when you are the invader and have withdrawn until the enemy is at your border, things are not going well.

So the real question here is "can the UA do operational offensive?"  And the jury is still out to be honest.  That operation around Kharkiv (a much higher priority than the villages in the Donbas) demonstrated that the UA can re-take ground and pretty quickly.  How well the RA was dug in, how the UA did it and is it repeatable are the unknowns.

We have talked at length about the Russian problems defending a line approximately the same length as the Western Front with a fraction of the troops needed. The line density is something like 100 men per km with what they were showing, and that is stuffing the line with replacements straight from the recruiting depot.  I don't care what the Russian grandfathers were good at, there is a force-space reality here that is going to be impossible to make airtight without another 1 million men and the equipment to arm them.

Meanwhile Ukraine has a 3 month head start in mobilization, I personally think that the UA has more combat ready troops than the RA at the moment and everyday they are getting more with better equipment.  While Russia continues its downward spiral economically and militarily.

As to post-ceasefire (if it happens - Ukraine is signaling the other way, and losing a few dozen kms in the Donbas is likely not to break a nation who had guns within range of its capital) - we had better be ready to pony up and re-build Ukraine a la Marshal Plan, or there was no point in the sunken costs.  Re-building national infrastructure will likely sustain the Ukrainian economy in the short to middle term, in the long term private industry will show up because they are a greedy bunch and this is a market filled with US greenbacks for reconstruction.  We need a functional and well defended Ukraine very badly right now because it will mean the "global order" won this war, and we are willing a pay a lot to ensure that happens (or should be).  We need a bright and shiny Ukraine as a demonstration that the Western based global order still works.  This needs to be a lesson for Russia, and more so for China that we will not let the pen that writes the rules go easily.  If we fail, then we deserve what happens next.

Would you be so kind as to submit this to the New York Times, as either an op-ed or a letter to the editor? They need a bit of talking around far more than our honored friend LLF. LLF's' heart is in the right place, even if his nerve has gone a bit wobbly. The New York Times' problem seems rather more severe. No offense LLF, none at all, love your stuff.

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, sburke said:

I think Haiduk posted that last guy with the following info - Mayor Anatoliy Miagkov, last mention of his service - 12th separate special force detachment 

Colonel Gerasimenko, not GRU, but Rosgvardiya spetsnaz. Like and mayor Miagkov he served in 12th sep.special force detachment "Ural" (Nizhniy Tagil). But he got lost early of 8th of April.

Edited May 20, 2022 by Haiduk

[Chibot Mk IX]

Yeah, It’s not the end of the world

The current situation is just like a mini-me version of Battle of Kursk. The German's AGS achieved a breakthrough but AGC stopped cold by Central front. A single axis breakthrough definitely will create some crisis . But it’s going to be very hard to make the whole UA line collapse unless UA become panic in the next few days.

 

[Haiduk]

Colonel Denys Prokopenko "Redis", commander of Azov was the last to leave the bunker of Azovstal. Now we can only hope on mediating countries guaranties.

Russian minister of defense Shoigu reported to Putin that 2439 defenders came out from Azovstal plant

Edited May 20, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Here again about capabilities of crews in steel boxes to spot incoming ATGMs to react on them or immediately open fire at the launcher. UKR Stugna-P crew fired a missile directly in front of driving BMP

 

[Vacillator]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Here again about capabilities of crews in steel boxes to spot incoming ATGMs to react on them or immediately open fire at the launcher. UKR Stugna-P crew fired a missile directly in front of driving BMP

To be fair I'd say that was a good shot, well executed.  Not much chance for the target to react.  But why were they barrel-assing down the road on their own in the first place?

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, Vacillator said:

To be fair I'd say that was a good shot, well executed.  Not much chance for the target to react.  But why were they barrel-assing down the road on their own in the first place?

They heard there was a brand new washing machine ripe for the picking just up the road.  Disinformation spread by SBU. 

[sburke]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Whoa there!  So I have taken a few days away because this great Russian offensive has taken on all the glam of watching a blind goat wooing a virgin armadillo.  .

You have a way with words sir... now I have to figure out how to expunge that image...     That blind goat gets around.

by the way, the sky is falling.

[sburke]

Russia deploys 'Terminator' tank support vehicles into Ukraine (msn.com)

I can hear the slight rustling in the brush as a Ukrainian tractor hunts its prey.

 

 

"Thank God! We've got Terminators!" said pro-Kremlin journalist Aleksander Sladkov on a Russian Telegram channel. "Maybe they'll have technical faults, and maybe their use will only become clear in practice, but this is progress!"  

Edited May 20, 2022 by sburke

[Combatintman]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

7.  Meanwhile the UA, for all our fond hopes and armchair projecting, shows no sign yet of being able to mount counterattacks above local/ battalion scale, sustained for about 3 days march (on foot!). Such 18th century tactics will simply not suffice to recover the 20% of their territory in Russian hands today, once those bastards dig in. Yes, there is no question they will figure it out, this particular 'tech' predates gunpowder. And Russians are historically masters at this art. 

Slightly overblown because Ukrainian forces have demonstrated that they can mount offensive operations; however, definitely a valid point.  I think the Ukrainians have missed a couple of opportunities to inflict either severe defeats or a largish problem set for Russia by not attacking.  The obvious one was to have cut off the retreat routes back into Belarus after Russia decided that Kiev was in the 'too difficult' basket.

As others have said - an interesting couple of weeks ahead for sure and as things stand, Ukrainian forces can maintain this posture of dogged defence, skilled use of light agile forces cued by ISR to disrupt Russian forces while assimilating the new equipment from overseas and conducting some serious training.  Ukraine has to attack at some point but, while there may be some short term concerns, there is plenty of time for the situation to tip more obviously towards a Russian defeat.

[dan/california]

 

16 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

Slightly overblown because Ukrainian forces have demonstrated that they can mount offensive operations; however, definitely a valid point.  I think the Ukrainians have missed a couple of opportunities to inflict either severe defeats or a largish problem set for Russia by not attacking.  The obvious one was to have cut off the retreat routes back into Belarus after Russia decided that Kiev was in the 'too difficult' basket.

As others have said - an interesting couple of weeks ahead for sure and as things stand, Ukrainian forces can maintain this posture of dogged defence, skilled use of light agile forces cued by ISR to disrupt Russian forces while assimilating the new equipment from overseas and conducting some serious training.  Ukraine has to attack at some point but, while there may be some short term concerns, there is plenty of time for the situation to tip more obviously towards a Russian defeat.

The Ukrainians don't so much attack as just make it too unpleasant to stay. Which seems odd, but has worked at Kyiv and Kharkiv. We will have to see where they apply it next. I can't imagine the fifth Russian commander in Kherson is sleeping terribly well. Not without staring UP at the bottom of a bottle of vodka first , anyway.

 

For that matter it has worked rather well for the Mujahideen, twice.... 

[Machor]

Yet another nation joins the long list of those supplying the Ukrainian military... Iran: 

The 81mm version of the same mortar in its element: in the hands of AQAP:

 

[Combatintman]

So ... I was thinking the other day ... if only there was a war game that had a lot of the equipment and forces used in the current conflict/special military operation in which you could build maps and stuff ...

Map size 4,800m wide by 3,664m deep

Topo overlay

Satellite overlay

CM overhead ...

Where it is in Ukraine

Chervone Overlay.kmz

A couple of comparisons ...

The Combat Mission Black Sea map file ...

Chervone.btt

Just a map folks so no you can't do a QB on it or play it unless you actually click the editor button and add forces and plans etc.  Will this be a scenario one day ... hopefully.

I was prompted to make it because it looked like a BTG or two were going to roll south towards Barvinkove having rolled into Velyka Komyshuvakha towards the end of April and I though it would be worth seeing how it looked in Combat Mission and whether a scenario or two could be built around it - there's definitely meat there for sure so hopefully I can put something together.  If I do so it will be the subject of a separate thread.

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Here again about capabilities of crews in steel boxes to spot incoming ATGMs to react on them or immediately open fire at the launcher. UKR Stugna-P crew fired a missile directly in front of driving BMP

 

I never ever get tired of watching these videos.  Some folks w evil intent thwarted rather completely.

[Sojourner]

58 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

So ... I was thinking the other day ... if only there was a war game that had a lot of the equipment and forces used in the current conflict/special military operation in which you could build maps and stuff ...

Amazing work.

If you can make a map of this area Steve will love you long time...

[sburke]

10 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Amazing work.

If you can make a map of this area Steve will love you long time...

right after Steve gives us bridging equipment.  

[panzermartin]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Colonel Denys Prokopenko "Redis", commander of Azov was the last to leave the bunker of Azovstal. Now we can only hope on mediating countries guaranties.

Russian minister of defense Shoigu reported to Putin that 2439 defenders came out from Azovstal plant

Do we really know how many UA troops were taken out of action in Mariupol since the start of the siege. I remember a force exceeding 10.000 there, among them most of Azov's best. We are constantly talking about the russian inability to replace combat ready troops, but I wonder if Ukraine is facing the same or worse situation. 

[dan/california]

You can probably improvise with a narrow fordable spot, and some supply trucks to represent the bridging gear that just give huge points for their demise. The "graphics department" will not be amused to have pontoons thrown on top of their never ending pile.

Edited May 20, 2022 by dan/california
spelling

[Sequoia]

I'm stealing this post from someone else on another forum as I thought it was excellent. If the person from the other forum is also here (though I don't recognize the name) I hope you don't mind the theft.

 

Just my opinion, but, imagine being the one honest general in a corrupt army. You live on your pay rather than looting supplies (and your pay scale was determined by people who assumed you’d be looting your supplies and your men’s pay).

You try hard to force your subordinates to do the same to the extent that you can.

Then the auditors come in, every other general has plenty of money to bribe the auditors, you don’t. Every other general has hand picked subordinates whose gravy train depends on the general helping to claim everything is in order. Your subordinates know that you are the main reason they’re actually having to try to live on inadequate army pay….

After the audit, the army no longer has one honest general, instead it has zero.

Audits work when almost everyone is honest, and you’re trying to root out a few bad apples before they rot the entire barrel. I’m not sure what works when almost everyone is rotten and you’re trying to find and promote the handful of capable people. Public accountability has a small chance, but needs to start a the local level (so people are close enough to know who’s doing their job) and needs generations to build, and isn’t something a dictator wants.

Edited May 20, 2022 by Sequoia

[sburke]

Ukraine's Zelenskiy proposes formal deal on compensation from Russia (msn.com)

 

Oligarch's are gonna pay for Putin's war?  Betcha that makes them real happy.  

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Combatintman said:

So ... I was thinking the other day ... if only there was a war game that had a lot of the equipment and forces used in the current conflict/special military operation in which you could build maps and stuff ...

Map size 4,800m wide by 3,664m deep

Topo overlay

Satellite overlay

CM overhead ...

Where it is in Ukraine

Chervone Overlay.kmz 728 B · 0 downloads

A couple of comparisons ...

The Combat Mission Black Sea map file ...

Chervone.btt 260.14 kB · 2 downloads

Just a map folks so no you can't do a QB on it or play it unless you actually click the editor button and add forces and plans etc.  Will this be a scenario one day ... hopefully.

I was prompted to make it because it looked like a BTG or two were going to roll south towards Barvinkove having rolled into Velyka Komyshuvakha towards the end of April and I though it would be worth seeing how it looked in Combat Mission and whether a scenario or two could be built around it - there's definitely meat there for sure so hopefully I can put something together.  If I do so it will be the subject of a separate thread.

Can we revisit those scenario time limits? A Ukrainian infantry heavy attack on this map is going to take a little while.