How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[cesmonkey]

Here's some comic relief, depending upon your point of view ...

People familiar with Russian culture are probably aware how much superstition plays a role in society, even in modern Russia.  Here's an article from the Russian tabloid, Komsomolskaya Pravda.  (Google translation, of course)

https://www-kp-ru.translate.goog/daily/27387/4581000/?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
The consequences of the eclipse: Numerologist called the two most dangerous days in May 2022
Numerologist Farida Krasavkina advises avoiding any conflicts and quarrels on May 1 and 10

 

[Ultradave]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

For example, a single howitzer (Excalibur) or a battery could have been targeting the building and the Grads used for distraction/saturation around it.  All they would have to do is compare the estimated flight times for both missions, set one as the baseline, then +/- the other one so that it came down roughly at the same time.

This is exactly what artillery Bn FDCs do - calculate a TOT mission for all 3 batteries of the Bn. Each battery computes it's firing data, reports time of flight to the Bn FDC. Bn FDO controls the firing of each battery with a "mark" 

A true Bn TOT with a mix of ground and air bursts is a sight to behold (spoken like a true Redleg, eh? ). Done right, every round will impact/explode at pretty much exactly the same time. This was a little more loose than that but essentially looks like the same effect.

Dave

Edited May 1, 2022 by Ultradave

[TheVulture]

Because I'm procrastinating this evening, I decided to plot the artillery impact points from the farmhouse video on to the google maps that @chrislposted above. Red dots are from the initial zoomed in view, orange dots are from after the camera conveniently zooms out just before the first rounds land outside its previous field of view. The purple circle is an area that is clear on the map, but obviously has some degree of ground 'clutter' in the video, but I can't tell what it is. Might well be some vehicles. Green line is 200m in length. 

Random observations:

The first round is a direct hit on the roof of the farmhouse and is possible the brightest explosion. Different kind of round, or just because it's up in the air rather than half-buried in the ground as it explodes?

The center of mass of the red dots seems to be different to the center of mass of the orange dots, which might suggest two different batteries with different central aim points (and the camera apparently knew when to widen its view).

Visually (and from watching the video) it seems like there are more rounds close to roads / treelines / buildings than might be expected by chance given the wide spread of impacts, but you'd have to do some kind of statistical analysis to tell really (and I'm only placing the dots approximately by eyeball, so I might be unintentionally biasing them towards roads etc.)

Here is the purple area ground clutter, before it all starts, and conveniently illuminated by a shell. Can't tell what it is, but for scale the distance between the two tree lines is about 300m, so we are talking (very approximately) vehicle scale stuff here, rather than pebbles or buildings.

 

[Haiduk]

About situation on Azovstal. 

Despite on agrrement, about cease fire since 10:00 of 30th of April to start evacuation of civilians, Russian forces continued shellings up to 12:00. During the night 29th-30th their artillery caused again some fcilities collase, which partially trapped the people underground. After shelling ended, UKR fighters have been disassembling ruines and helped civilains to go out. Russians delayed evacuation buses, so they arrived only at 17:00, so yesterday only 20 civilians could evacuate. Today already 100 civilians evacuated, but Russians at 17:00 renewed warfare, because formally the truce should be finished at this time. 

Ukrainian fighters demand from Red Cross and UN to maintain evacuation of wounded soldiers, but Russia rejected this. Acting commander of  36th marines brigade also appealed to president of Turkey Erdogan for extraction procedure for UKR soldiers. 

Here is a video, how UKR soldiers help civileans to reach the buses

 

 

[asurob]

Help an old sailor out here.

I keep hearing how Pootin is going to declare war on Ukraine in or around the 9th of May.  I understand this lets him further mobilize his nation's military.  But other then more meat for the grinder on the ground how in the hell does this help the Russian Army in any way?  Based on their performance sending more untrained (and frankly way out of shape) reserve units to the front line isn't going to finally get that offensive on track.  So what's the deal?

Further, and I get a lot of this is for the home audience...I keep reading how he is going to declare war against NATO...or things along this line.

Again, how in the hell does that help his war cause in any way.  Russia's navy would last about 20 minutes against the US Navy...I'd say their Airforce a couple of hours against NATOs...and the army....a giant LOL...other than Nuclear forces (which while it only takes one I have serious doubts about their upkeep) in no way does a sane leader who isn't winning the war they are in...expand it.

So what's the point of all this...is this truly just more propaganda for the home crowd?

[Battlefront.com]

51 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Here's some comic relief, depending upon your point of view ...

People familiar with Russian culture are probably aware how much superstition plays a role in society, even in modern Russia.  Here's an article from the Russian tabloid, Komsomolskaya Pravda.  (Google translation, of course)

https://www-kp-ru.translate.goog/daily/27387/4581000/?_x_tr_sl=ru&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
The consequences of the eclipse: Numerologist called the two most dangerous days in May 2022
Numerologist Farida Krasavkina advises avoiding any conflicts and quarrels on May 1 and 10

 

Your Google translate link didn't work so I fixed it for you.

So it looks like the Astrologers are helping prepare Russians for a very disappointing May.  Interesting to see the Kremlin pulling out all the stops to keep the population under its control.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

49 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

Because I'm procrastinating this evening, I decided to plot the artillery impact points from the farmhouse video on to the google maps that @chrislposted above. Red dots are from the initial zoomed in view, orange dots are from after the camera conveniently zooms out just before the first rounds land outside its previous field of view. The purple circle is an area that is clear on the map, but obviously has some degree of ground 'clutter' in the video, but I can't tell what it is. Might well be some vehicles. Green line is 200m in length. 

Random observations:

The first round is a direct hit on the roof of the farmhouse and is possible the brightest explosion. Different kind of round, or just because it's up in the air rather than half-buried in the ground as it explodes?

The center of mass of the red dots seems to be different to the center of mass of the orange dots, which might suggest two different batteries with different central aim points (and the camera apparently knew when to widen its view).

Visually (and from watching the video) it seems like there are more rounds close to roads / treelines / buildings than might be expected by chance given the wide spread of impacts, but you'd have to do some kind of statistical analysis to tell really (and I'm only placing the dots approximately by eyeball, so I might be unintentionally biasing them towards roads etc.)

Here is the purple area ground clutter, before it all starts, and conveniently illuminated by a shell. Can't tell what it is, but for scale the distance between the two tree lines is about 300m, so we are talking (very approximately) vehicle scale stuff here, rather than pebbles or buildings.

 

Thanks for doing this.  Some interesting things to note, especially for our more "red legged" friends (Redleg is US slang for artilleryman if anybody is wondering).

To me it looks like a concentrated attempt to hit the structures and the immediate surroundings.  However, either a bunch of artillery was deliberately aimed away from this area or the Ukrainian's made a mistake, because a large % of the shells hit nothing but empty fields.

A theory is that the Ukrainians deliberately threw away some rounds to kinda compensate for the precision round or perhaps rounds.  Distraction from the truth, so to speak.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

39 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

About situation on Azovstal.

Thank you for the update.  This is, of course, good news.  Every civilian evacuated to Ukrainian territory is a victory at this point.  Hopefully there will be more tomorrow.

Steve

[Haiduk]

22 minutes ago, asurob said:

more untrained

Why untrained? Russia has enough retired contractors and former conscript servicemen, enough veterans of local conflicts - yes, they already 30-35-40+, but have enough experience. Also many different paramilitary groups, like cossacks (most of them just clowns in WWI style uniform, but they aren't infantil millenials). If Putin claimed mobilization, I wonder, how much of those 74% Russians, which now support the war will go to enlist offices. Or they will hide, bribe and run away to Georgia, Armenia, Kazahsyan, India etc. to avoid the war. Because one matter to shout from own armchear "Go, boys! Destroy this fascist ukies!" and other matter to turn out in dirty and bloody trench under fire.   

By the way I heard that average age of UKR army also not too young - 30-35 years. 

Edited May 1, 2022 by Haiduk

[holoween]

1 hour ago, TheVulture said:

If this plot is accurate then that would indicate incredibly inaccurate Ukrainian artillery and lends credibility to the idea a guided shell was used initially.

For comparison ive seen a plot of PzH2000 with a 95%cep less than 200m long and less than 50m wide at 37km. If ukrainian arty was even at half the accuracy they could simply have a full battery strike the target and get multiple hits without guiding.

Edited May 1, 2022 by holoween

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, asurob said:

Help an old sailor out here.

I keep hearing how Pootin is going to declare war on Ukraine in or around the 9th of May.  I understand this lets him further mobilize his nation's military.  But other then more meat for the grinder on the ground how in the hell does this help the Russian Army in any way?  Based on their performance sending more untrained (and frankly way out of shape) reserve units to the front line isn't going to finally get that offensive on track.  So what's the deal?

Further, and I get a lot of this is for the home audience...I keep reading how he is going to declare war against NATO...or things along this line.

Again, how in the hell does that help his war cause in any way.  Russia's navy would last about 20 minutes against the US Navy...I'd say their Airforce a couple of hours against NATOs...and the army....a giant LOL...other than Nuclear forces (which while it only takes one I have serious doubts about their upkeep) in no way does a sane leader who isn't winning the war they are in...expand it.

So what's the point of all this...is this truly just more propaganda for the home crowd?

All speculation of course, but...

Russia is not going to provoke a shooting war with NATO.  They know their forces will immediately start being removed from the map and totally evaporate within days.  I do not doubt that Putin is well aware of this, especially now that he's seen what Ukrainians can do with a tiny slice of NATO weaponry.  Which would then box them in so much worse than they are now that they either surrender or nuke something, which in turn will mean the Russian state will cease to exist in any meaningful way.

Declaring war on Ukraine, though, is possible.  If Putin wants to keep the war going he's going to need the current batch of conscripts and a whole lot more than that added to the rolls right away.  As Haiduk said, the new forces would be Reservists and therefore not untrained (though compared to US reservists they would be very unprepared).  It's already unlikely that they can hold the front long enough to get them trained and equipped, so he either does it soon or other events will decide things for him.

The counter to this is that Putin has not declared war up to this point because he fears doing so will do... something he doesn't want.  Not exactly sure, but something. Otherwise the failure to mobilize is completely illogical.

There is also one direct drawback to declaring war against Ukraine.  Most likely Ukraine would declare war on Russia and that means open season on Russian infrastructure by artillery, missiles, drones, special ops, air forces, cyber, etc.  Putin should be aware that this will not be good for Russian confidence in his leadership.

Steve

[Huba]

New ISW maps are up:

 

[acrashb]

Here's one I don't think we've seen yet.  I don't know if this is a training issue or just a "what the hell were they thinking" issue. 

 

 

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Here's one I don't think we've seen yet.  I don't know if this is a training issue or just a "what the hell were they thinking" issue. 

 

 

It is a particularly creative way to make the point that attacking Ukraine at the beginning of the spring mud season with an armor heavy army is one the dumber moves in military history. A clueless, effectively untrained, armor heavy army, who apparently have never done a vehicle recovery drill in their lives. And alas for that poor fool, he will now be the subject of the what NOT to do video in every safety briefing ever done on the subject, forevermore. 

 

[Machor]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Moscow is also needs a brigade of psychiatrists.

Yup.

 

[The_Capt]

34 minutes ago, asurob said:

Help an old sailor out here.

I keep hearing how Pootin is going to declare war on Ukraine in or around the 9th of May.  I understand this lets him further mobilize his nation's military.  But other then more meat for the grinder on the ground how in the hell does this help the Russian Army in any way?  Based on their performance sending more untrained (and frankly way out of shape) reserve units to the front line isn't going to finally get that offensive on track.  So what's the deal?

Further, and I get a lot of this is for the home audience...I keep reading how he is going to declare war against NATO...or things along this line.

Again, how in the hell does that help his war cause in any way.  Russia's navy would last about 20 minutes against the US Navy...I'd say their Airforce a couple of hours against NATOs...and the army....a giant LOL...other than Nuclear forces (which while it only takes one I have serious doubts about their upkeep) in no way does a sane leader who isn't winning the war they are in...expand it.

So what's the point of all this...is this truly just more propaganda for the home crowd?

So assuming this goes long (I.e. the Russian military does not collapse), then we are talking about a Force Generation/mobilization competition.  Everyone looks at Russia’s manpower numbers and goes “woah” and starts chattering about Ukraine getting “orc hord-ed”, over-run and crushed.  The crowd along these lines either fear this, and some appear to want it for various reasons.

The reality is that in a Force Generation race Ukraine is already way out front.  The have a bottomless bank, they have western training support and they have already mobilized the manpower.  Further, Ukraine has the entire western military industrial complex to draw from, a complex that is pretty much invulnerable to Russian influence (less natural gas etc).  In short the west can push better, and more, equipment into Ukraine, while Ukraine can training better and faster.

Russia has more manpower, yes. But it needs more than just teenagers lining up to fight, it needs the training infrastructure and trainers to get those kids to the point they can fight as military units. Its frontline ready equipment has been badly shredded and there is speculation as to the state of its reserves.  Russia’s military industrial complex is under siege, along with the rest of its industry.  It ability to produce modern equipment is in question but likely badly eroded and very likely much slower than the west can.

So adding that all up and a long war/mobilization scenario suddenly does not look so good for Russia as it would need to build the Force Gen pipe internally, equip that force all the while under increasing stress.  The longer Russia takes, the worse it gets.  Ukraine is the front end of a proxy war between Russia and the entire western world (along with others).  It’s “allies” such as China have no interest in getting into this as deeply as the west is in Ukraine.

 So the calculus does not look good no matter what Putin “declares” or not in a week or so.  The RA can’t seem to advance more than 30kms without stalling, and this is the best of what is left.  Putin does not have the military to win this, and he can’t build one faster, better than his opponent; like everything else in this war, the math does not add up for Russia.

As to “war on NATO” or nukes, I think those are more likely to get Putin removed from power, perhaps terminally as I am not sure Russians are ready to die en masse for one man, no matter what the polling shows.

[Cogust]

23 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Here's one I don't think we've seen yet.  I don't know if this is a training issue or just a "what the hell were they thinking" issue. 

 

 

I wouldn't stand there if it was between two cars, why are they just standing where a big, blind steel beast is about to go? This situation could go wrong in so many ways, there's a reason behind most militaries using towing equipment and not pushing armoured vehicles with tree trunks.

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

It is a particularly creative way to make the point that attacking Ukraine at the beginning of the spring mud season with an armor heavy army is one the dumber moves in military history. A clueless, effectively untrained, armor heavy army, who apparently have never done a vehicle recovery drill in their lives. And alas for that poor fool, he will now be the subject of the what NOT to do video in every safety briefing ever done on the subject, forevermore. 

 

 

[MikeyD]

I've been pasting select bits of information off this board to a 'standard' news site chat group and those posters are practically up in arms. Because none of what I'm posting resembles what they're reading in the usual American news outlets. They're still expecting Russia's grand eastern offensive to kick off soon, and for that other Russian army to to threaten NATO any day now.

Edited May 1, 2022 by MikeyD

[Machor]

Ukraine's Su-27s are up and flying (and I used to think using Ukrainian air support in CMBS was 'unrealistic'):

IDed as Su-27s by an expert:

 

[Battlefront.com]

33 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Here's one I don't think we've seen yet.  I don't know if this is a training issue or just a "what the hell were they thinking" issue. 

 

 

Yeah, I think that was posted here a little while ago.  If not, I probably saw it on that Twitter account.  I don't know that it's from the war or from before.   There's a lot of old stuff resurfacing lately.

Still, rather "funny" except for the guy probably got under the track a bit too much.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Machor said:

Ukraine's Su-27s are up and flying (and I used to think using Ukrainian air support in CMBS was 'unrealistic'):

IDed as Su-27s by an expert:

 

I wonder if Ukraine is training new pilots somewhere other than in Ukrainian airspace.  I know if I were in charge of training new pilots I'd be might uncomfortable with them getting in their initial flight time in Ukraine.  As inept and absent as the Russian air forces might be, Ukraine can't afford to have a green pilot in one of its few fighters come up against a Russian fighter.

Steve

[Combatintman]

1 hour ago, TheVulture said:

Because I'm procrastinating this evening, I decided to plot the artillery impact points from the farmhouse video on to the google maps that @chrislposted above. Red dots are from the initial zoomed in view, orange dots are from after the camera conveniently zooms out just before the first rounds land outside its previous field of view. The purple circle is an area that is clear on the map, but obviously has some degree of ground 'clutter' in the video, but I can't tell what it is. Might well be some vehicles. Green line is 200m in length. 

Random observations:

The first round is a direct hit on the roof of the farmhouse and is possible the brightest explosion. Different kind of round, or just because it's up in the air rather than half-buried in the ground as it explodes?

The center of mass of the red dots seems to be different to the center of mass of the orange dots, which might suggest two different batteries with different central aim points (and the camera apparently knew when to widen its view).

Visually (and from watching the video) it seems like there are more rounds close to roads / treelines / buildings than might be expected by chance given the wide spread of impacts, but you'd have to do some kind of statistical analysis to tell really (and I'm only placing the dots approximately by eyeball, so I might be unintentionally biasing them towards roads etc.)

Here is the purple area ground clutter, before it all starts, and conveniently illuminated by a shell. Can't tell what it is, but for scale the distance between the two tree lines is about 300m, so we are talking (very approximately) vehicle scale stuff here, rather than pebbles or buildings.

 

I'll pitch in on this debate but I'll be light on gunnery because we have some well-qualified people who should rightly be deferred to.  What prompted me to look was @TheVulture's remark about 'clutter' and I thought it was worth seeing if I could unpick it ... in short I couldn't.  However, what I have not seen in the debate are the observations below ...

Going back to 'clutter' there is possibly at least one other vehicle in the rough area of my 'moving vehicle' annotation.

To pitch in on the HQ piece ... if I had to set a brigade HQ up in that area ... I would put it about 1km away.

 

[Machor]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

I wonder if Ukraine is training new pilots somewhere other than in Ukrainian airspace.

There were comments on Twitter that they were filmed near Odesa - maybe, @Haiduk will be able to follow up.

[Battlefront.com]

BTW, just so you'z all know'z... I previously suggested keeping an eye on the Canadian Ukrainian Volunteer Twitter feed.  I've had a bit of a gnawing suspicion lately that maybe it's not as it seems.  The "bicycle" story got me very suspicious.  I poked around and I'm certainly not the only one.

Here's a thread discussing doubts.  Some of the doubts are just... well... wrong, but overall there's enough to be suspicious about.  If you should keep checking in on the account (I intend to for a bit longer) just be aware that anything that isn't easily verifiable should be treated with skepticism: