How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

Saint Javelin, lovely...

 

 

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, Combatintman said:

The intact bridge is actually two and possibly three crossings.  Nonetheless, that is a nasty fight if the Ukrainians choose to make it so.

Location:

Intact Bridges.kmz 701 B · 1 download

Satellite View:

Oblique view looking SW-NE

So I finally took MFSF up and over this area:

The punchline is that there is not a lot of good news for the Russians along this axis, if their goal is Slovyansk.  I found three rough options for something BTG size to try and break through that Severski-Donetsk River line and none are optimal but some are definitely better than other.

Axis #1 - Swing north and come across as Seredenje as there is a gap between the Oskil River and that soggy mess to the south.  Possible crossing points right at Seredenji:

It ain't pretty but it is the best of the bunch.  Problem here is that once you get to a town called Oleksandrivka :

Welcome to the Black Forest, which one would need to bust through to get to a northern approach to Slovyansk.  Big problem here is then you are on the Izyum axis on advance = traffic jam.

So then we take Axis 2 - The Russian Most Probable:

And further up:

This would be the land of those three bridges:

So Axis #2 is a hellish landscape from a manoeuvre point of view.  This would be on the back side of Lyman and it is like this for along way north and south.  Worse, it is dominated by high ground pretty to the West and South:   

Axis 2 will take the least imagination and is basically a frontal - so you know the Russians will pick it.  This is a very complex engineering problem and a major choke point where you are going to get hammered the entire way.  I suspect that the Russians already took a lot of losses back at the Zarichne/Torske choke point:

Here looking east back towards Kreminna.

And then there is Axis 3:

Still pretty messy looking that way but if you swing a bit further south and east, thing open up a fair bunch:

That is looking south.  Problem with Axis 3 is that one still has to traverse that wooded soggy bit and I could not find any major bridges.  The big advantage of Axis 3 is that it opens way op around the south end of Slovanyanks and you could set up a cut-off and break out further South.

The Russian may try a combo of these but the long pole in the tent will be engineering support - shame they lost all that equipment in the opening of this thing.  None of these are easy goes, my money is on a Axis 2 & 3 combo as 1 is easier but it really does not lead to anything.

Either way, a lot of CM battlefields here, heck there is an entire campaign in this.

[Battlefront.com]

When we looked at Combatintman's original assessment of the Slovyansk approaches it looked brutal from all directions, but for different reasons.  Terrain being just one of them.  Thanks to The_Capt for taking a look into that in detail.

Russia has two major limitations on any advance towards Slovyansk.  The first is obvious... manpower shortages.  Tanks and artillery they might have, but guys to filter into the forests and fight through to Slovyansk is, by all counts, just not available.  The second is time.  Russia has been farting around with this offensive for almost 2 weeks now and every day they take losses that they can't replace any time soon.  And the forces in the fight now can't stay functional for too much longer before combat exhaustion sets in.

What Russia needs is a path to victory that does not require massed manpower or a long timeline.  I don't see anything from the Lyman direction offering those possibilities unless the Izyum advance gets there first (see further below for that bit) and the Lyman direction takes advantage of Ukrainian disarray.

Even if Russia manages to get to Slovyansk from whatever combination of directions... what then?  This is a big urban area that Ukraine knows it has to hold.  There's little chance of cutting it off from supply (that would take a huge force on its own), so we're now talking about an urban slog that requires massive amounts of manpower and loads of time.

Which means, they have already lost the battle of Slovyansk before they've even gotten there.  Battle of the Bulge continues to keep coming to mind.  Slovyansk = Antwerp.

 

For the fun of it, let's keep exploring all the tactical roads to defeat for the Russians

All three approaches from the Lyman area are unlikely to succeed as the combination of bad terrain and prepared Ukrainian positions make it unlikely that any one would work out.  Even trying for 2 or 3 at one time, which would stress out Ukrainian defenses and increase the chances of a breakthrough, likely wouldn't work.  The terrain is just too easily bottled up.

The worst line of attack is Axis 3 (south from Lyman, then west towards Slovyansk).  Why?  Delicate LOC and very exposed flank.  This is one of those situations where getting to your destination is much less than half the battle.  Maintaining this position would be very difficult.  Axis 2, the horrid frontal assault, is the best in terms of LOCs as Axis 1 is a big swing north instead of heading straight for the prize.  So I agree with The_Capt that Axis 2 is the best of the three bad choices.

This confirms my belief that the only viable way to take Slovyansk is from the north and west by driving south from Izyum.  Some form of advance/pressure from Lyman might be helpful, except for the fact that it drains forces of their strength and Russia is desperately short of forces.  So maybe not all that helpful.

The problem is Izyum has not shown much progress since the operation started.  The initial expansion of the bridgehead has stalled out and Ukrainian pressure from the western flank continues to manifest itself.  I think if Russia had the strength to break south from Izyum we'd have seen it by now.  And even if they did suddenly gain a lot of ground, where are the forces necessary for taking Slovyansk?  I don't see it happening.

 

Bottom line here is that we have three probable outcomes:

1. What we see now is about as good as it's going to get.  Maybe some small advances here and there, but nothing that will matter.
2. Advances from either Izyum and/or Lyman make some additional progress, but are ultimately unable to establish a means of enveloping Slovyansk.  The result is a bunch of overextended positions.  Sorta like Mykolaiv.
3. Advances from Izyum and/or Lyman manage to envelop Slovyansk from 2-3 sides, but are too weak to threaten Slovyansk itself.  Sorta like Kyiv.

All three scenarios mean that eventually Russia's forces will go on the defensive permanently without achieving anything of significance.  Depending on how far they get, they might even have to pull back.

Steve

[akd]

Looks like a Russian counterattack on that Russian HQ position in Mariupol that Azov previously wrecked and captured:

 

[Anon052]

2 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ghost-of-kyiv-who-shot-down-more-than-40-russian-aircraft-dies-in-battle-q3sq0hztx

May this hero rest in peace.

Was this guy real? I tough he was a legend to bolster morale. I have not seen any videofootage of any dogfight and no reports of any airbattle with the exception of this Ghost of Kyiv. So I asumed the ukrainians tried to avoid direct air encounters and used fighters to screen their ground attack planes.

There are lots of information about ground battles but not as much about the air campaign. You only see vids of russian aircraft shot down by groundforces.

[Aragorn2002]

2 hours ago, kraze said:

lenin invented most hated Ukraine so let's erect a monument to him

Russia is a true cargo cult of both Nazi Germany and USSR. They lack the military effectiveness of both and just quickly eat through the stocks left to them - but they sure as hell try to be the mix of the two.

Well, let's make sure they'll meet the same end.

[danfrodo]

43 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Well, let's make sure they'll meet the same end.

Yo Aragorn, check your messages.  I was worried Putin sent a team after you.

[danfrodo]

57 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

When we looked at Combatintman's original assessment of the Slovyansk approaches it looked brutal from all directions, but for different reasons.  Terrain being just one of them.  Thanks to The_Capt for taking a look into that in detail.

Russia has two major limitations on any advance towards Slovyansk.  The first is obvious... manpower shortages.  Tanks and artillery they might have, but guys to filter into the forests and fight through to Slovyansk is, by all counts, just not available.  The second is time.  Russia has been farting around with this offensive for almost 2 weeks now and every day they take losses that they can't replace any time soon.  And the forces in the fight now can't stay functional for too much longer before combat exhaustion sets in.

What Russia needs is a path to victory that does not require massed manpower or a long timeline.  I don't see anything from the Lyman direction offering those possibilities unless the Izyum advance gets there first (see further below for that bit) and the Lyman direction takes advantage of Ukrainian disarray.

Even if Russia manages to get to Slovyansk from whatever combination of directions... what then?  This is a big urban area that Ukraine knows it has to hold.  There's little chance of cutting it off from supply (that would take a huge force on its own), so we're now talking about an urban slog that requires massive amounts of manpower and loads of time.

Which means, they have already lost the battle of Slovyansk before they've even gotten there.  Battle of the Bulge continues to keep coming to mind.  Slovyansk = Antwerp.

 

For the fun of it, let's keep exploring all the tactical roads to defeat for the Russians

All three approaches from the Lyman area are unlikely to succeed as the combination of bad terrain and prepared Ukrainian positions make it unlikely that any one would work out.  Even trying for 2 or 3 at one time, which would stress out Ukrainian defenses and increase the chances of a breakthrough, likely wouldn't work.  The terrain is just too easily bottled up.

The worst line of attack is Axis 3 (south from Lyman, then west towards Slovyansk).  Why?  Delicate LOC and very exposed flank.  This is one of those situations where getting to your destination is much less than half the battle.  Maintaining this position would be very difficult.  Axis 2, the horrid frontal assault, is the best in terms of LOCs as Axis 1 is a big swing north instead of heading straight for the prize.  So I agree with The_Capt that Axis 2 is the best of the three bad choices.

This confirms my belief that the only viable way to take Slovyansk is from the north and west by driving south from Izyum.  Some form of advance/pressure from Lyman might be helpful, except for the fact that it drains forces of their strength and Russia is desperately short of forces.  So maybe not all that helpful.

The problem is Izyum has not shown much progress since the operation started.  The initial expansion of the bridgehead has stalled out and Ukrainian pressure from the western flank continues to manifest itself.  I think if Russia had the strength to break south from Izyum we'd have seen it by now.  And even if they did suddenly gain a lot of ground, where are the forces necessary for taking Slovyansk?  I don't see it happening.

 

Bottom line here is that we have three probable outcomes:

1. What we see now is about as good as it's going to get.  Maybe some small advances here and there, but nothing that will matter.
2. Advances from either Izyum and/or Lyman make some additional progress, but are ultimately unable to establish a means of enveloping Slovyansk.  The result is a bunch of overextended positions.  Sorta like Mykolaiv.
3. Advances from Izyum and/or Lyman manage to envelop Slovyansk from 2-3 sides, but are too weak to threaten Slovyansk itself.  Sorta like Kyiv.

All three scenarios mean that eventually Russia's forces will go on the defensive permanently without achieving anything of significance.  Depending on how far they get, they might even have to pull back.

Steve

Looks like another score for this forum:  the probes were the offensive, not some prelude like pundits were saying. 

So for Slovyansk, Russia would need to advance through highly restricted terrain, where it doesn't matter how many tanks have because they can't deploy.  HIt the front of the column, block road, shell w artillery.  Russia could bring up it's artillery and shower the area for days, then try to push thru, but that is very time consuming and only works if the Urkainians abandon the areas completely.  The new theater commander has an impossible task.

[MSBoxer]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

Looks like another score for this forum:  the probes were the offensive, not some prelude like pundits were saying. 

Add that to the reports I have seen on various media outlets this morning that Russia is sending in depleted units, often combining them to create new "full strength" units.

Once again our members were ahead of the 'experts'

[Combatintman]

2 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

Add that to the reports I have seen on various media outlets this morning that Russia is sending in depleted units, often combining them to create new "full strength" units.

Once again our members were ahead of the 'experts'

Its why the games are without par.

[Battlefront.com]

Here's an interesting bit of video.  It is supposedly a strike on a Russian command center of some sort.  Note that the focus of the camera is on the rather large building on the other side of the treeline.  First shot is a direct hit, rest is the usual mix of accurate and WILDLY inaccurate shelling.  Does anybody think the first hit was a fluke?  I don't.  My guess is we just saw a precision shell used as the only other option, a TB2 strike, seems insufficient to make that sort of blast effect.

 

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's an interesting bit of video.  It is supposedly a strike on a Russian command center of some sort.  Note that the focus of the camera is on the rather large building on the other side of the treeline.  First shot is a direct hit, rest is the usual mix of accurate and WILDLY inaccurate shelling.  Does anybody think the first hit was a fluke?  I don't.  My guess is we just saw a precision shell used as the only other option, a TB2 strike, seems insufficient to make that sort of blast effect.

 

Two different batteries shooting? one of them with MUCH newer gear? Maybe even NATO 155 from one of them? They clearly felt the target was worth smashing

[sross112]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Here's an interesting bit of video.  It is supposedly a strike on a Russian command center of some sort.  Note that the focus of the camera is on the rather large building on the other side of the treeline.  First shot is a direct hit, rest is the usual mix of accurate and WILDLY inaccurate shelling.  Does anybody think the first hit was a fluke?  I don't.  My guess is we just saw a precision shell used as the only other option, a TB2 strike, seems insufficient to make that sort of blast effect.

 

Over 30 rounds in less than 20 seconds so it is probably an MLRS strike. The initial explosion doesn't look that much different in size to make me think it is anything other than one of the rockets. At first glance it looks a little different but that is due to it striking the building and not the ground. So I'd say it is good luck and the rest is to be expected with rocket artillery. To get a guided munition and an MRLS salvo to hit within a second of each other would be pretty amazing. Unless the same MLRS could launch a guided and unguided in the same salvo?

[danfrodo]

While most US media is focused on what US does, I saw on an Oryx twitter (via DailyKos) that Poland just sent massive weapons haul:  (I don't have twitter so didn't know how to share, but here's cut & paste)

- 230+ T-72M(1) MBTs

- 40 BMP-1 IFVs

- 20+ 2S1 Goździk SPGs

- 20+ BM-21 Grad MRLs

- WB Electronics FlyEye reconnaissance UAVs

- 100 R-73 air-to-air missiles [For Su-27 and MiG-29]

230 T72s -- that is game changing when coupled w all the artillery coming online.

[Battlefront.com]

13 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Over 30 rounds in less than 20 seconds so it is probably an MLRS strike. The initial explosion doesn't look that much different in size to make me think it is anything other than one of the rockets. At first glance it looks a little different but that is due to it striking the building and not the ground. So I'd say it is good luck and the rest is to be expected with rocket artillery. To get a guided munition and an MRLS salvo to hit within a second of each other would be pretty amazing. Unless the same MLRS could launch a guided and unguided in the same salvo?

My thinking is several batteries firing for effect, but the first round out of one of the tubes was a smart munition.  This would require no special coordination as firing a smart munition (once prepped) is identical to firing a dumb one.

Steve

[womble]

14 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Over 30 rounds in less than 20 seconds so it is probably an MLRS strike.

Or 10+ tubes firing a 3-round MRSI mission, or 5+ PH200s firing a 6 round mission.

[The_MonkeyKing]

17 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

While most US media is focused on what US does, I saw on an Oryx twitter (via DailyKos) that Poland just sent massive weapons haul:  (I don't have twitter so didn't know how to share, but here's cut & paste)

- 230+ T-72M(1) MBTs

- 40 BMP-1 IFVs

- 20+ 2S1 Goździk SPGs

- 20+ BM-21 Grad MRLs

- WB Electronics FlyEye reconnaissance UAVs

- 100 R-73 air-to-air missiles [For Su-27 and MiG-29]

230 T72s -- that is game changing when coupled w all the artillery coming online.

Indeed, I wonder how many operational tanks Ukraine had at the start of the invasion. Around 700 is my guess...

[rocketman]

1 hour ago, Anon052 said:

Was this guy real? I tough he was a legend to bolster morale. I have not seen any videofootage of any dogfight and no reports of any airbattle with the exception of this Ghost of Kyiv. So I asumed the ukrainians tried to avoid direct air encounters and used fighters to screen their ground attack planes.

There are lots of information about ground battles but not as much about the air campaign. You only see vids of russian aircraft shot down by groundforces.

Feels like a morale boost piece. Oryx has not even 40 confirmed aircraft downed, and many likely from MANPADs, so that one pilot would have 40 kills just seems unlikely. Nice story though.

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Anon052 said:

Was this guy real? I tough he was a legend to bolster morale.

Exactly a morale booster legend. Pilots of 40th tactical aviation brigade, where Ghost as if served, told this is composite image of all pilots of their brigade and maybe whole Air Forces. So, I suppose "Ghost shot down 40 jets" is more close to real total Russian losses of planes in this war, inflicted by our Air Forces and Air Defense, which a part of Air Forces. 190 shot down Russian jets is totally unrealistic number. 

This is discussional question either need this legends during the war or not. I think, not. 

[akd]

Another clip of Russians trying to reduce Azovstahl, now including 2S1 direct fire:

 

[Haiduk]

51 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

My thinking is several batteries firing for effect, but the first round out of one of the tubes was a smart munition.  This would require no special coordination as firing a smart munition (once prepped) is identical to firing a dumb one.

Steve

I posted yesterday this video, this was Grad salvo. No guided shells.

[sburke]

14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Exactly a morale booster legend. Pilots of 40th tactical aviation brigade, where Ghost as if served, told this is composite image of all pilots of their brigade and maybe whole Air Forces. So, I suppose "Ghost shot down 40 jets" is more close to real total Russian losses of planes in this war, inflicted by our Air Forces and Air Defense, which a part of Air Forces. 190 shot down Russian jets is totally unrealistic number. 

This is discussional question either need this legends during the war or not. I think, not. 

Agreed, Ukraine has so many heroes now, fictional ones are completely unnecessary.

[Haiduk]

Update about UKR advance on N/NE of Kharkiv. General Staff today claimed during 28-29th of April UKR forces liberated not only Rus'ka Lozova, Kutuzivka and Momotove, but also Slobidske, Prelesne (very small village next to Slobidske) and Verhnia Rohanka. 

Russian social media say in that time when in Tsyrkuny area Russian troops is deployed, the flanks of Tsyrkuny group secured mostly DPR conscripts with some Russian reinforcements.

If UKR troops can eliminate Tsyrkuny group they can after this advance further to Staryi Saltiv and Vovchansk to cut one of two Russian supply ways Belgorod-Vovchansk-Kupiansk- Izium.

 

Edited April 30, 2022 by Haiduk

[Markus86]

Another general seems to have died, Major General Simonov. 

 

 

[Aragorn2002]

15 minutes ago, Markus86 said:

Another general seems to have died, Major General Simonov. 

 

 

He will be dearly missed.

Edited April 30, 2022 by Aragorn2002