How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, Alphaomega said:

Glad to hear there are "all sorts of possibilities" with a nuclear exchange being very low on the list.
 

For nukes to be seriously in play we have to first conclude that Putin is, by all definitions, insane.  Then we have to conclude that everybody he needs to make a nuke strike happen are equally insane.  After that, we have to conclude that there's nobody sane enough to intervene effectively before a nuke flies.

There's no indication any of these three preconditions exist, therefore it's not the most likely scenario facing us at this point in time.

Steve

[asurob]

43 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another probable coincidental Russian infrastructure disaster.  This is a power plant is in Sakhalin.  Sure, it's nice to think that Japan activated someone to make this happen, but it's likely just routine Russian neglect/incompetence.

 

I'm going to go with your Japanese theory.  Mostly because it warms my heart to see our good friends the Japanese sticking it to Russia.  (Yeah I know they aren't)

[LongLeftFlank]

37 minutes ago, dan/california said:

My guess is they do that anyway. They have ALL the pieces. And the lesson of the last two decades is that people with nukes don't get the bleep bombed out of them......

I remember a quote from a few decades ago where a Japanese minister archly responded, "hmm yes, it might take us that long." [6 months] So totally Japanese lol. 

Edited April 30, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Taranis]

"A woman sits among debris and destroyed cars in Mariupol, Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, April 29, 2022. ALEXEI ALEXANDROV / AP"

 

"Smoke in the distance rises from the Azovstal metallurgical complex in Mariupol, where Ukrainian civilians and soldiers are confined. AP"

"A Russian soldier guards an area of the port of Mariupol. AP"

 

"A sunken Ukrainian warship in port. AP"

 

"Two women carry aid cards with the letter Z, which has become a symbol of the Russian military, and a hashtag reading "We don't abandon our people". AP"  * Propaganda time !

 

"Russian military vehicles patrol a road outside Mariupol. AP"  * BTR-82A

[Aragorn2002]

4 hours ago, db_zero said:

Speaking of the economy the Russian economy isn’t the only one in trouble-the US economy is looking shaky. Not in the same category as Russia but a severe recession is not out of the cards…

While not highly probable something along the lines of 2008 isn’t out of the question. Putins use of a tac nuke could be a huge shock to the US economic prospects given it’s already fragile state….GDP falling last quarter, stock markets in bear territory, inflation raging and the Fed way behind the 8 ball, forced to aggressively raise rates while dumping 50 billion a month in MBS onto the markets…

Have a great weekend everyone!

[Taranis]

Ukrainian military liberated Momotove in Kharkiv region
https://t.me/Tsaplienko/7342

[kraze]

6 hours ago, IMHO said:

And how this will help prevent a Nuclear Third World War?

If Russia starts lobbing nukes at Ukraine - it's a nuclear WW3.

Allowing Russia to do it without consequences - means everybody can do it. Means China may think "ah screw it, if I can't have it - nobody can" and lob one at Taiwan. North Korea may think "I didn't get russian nukes to just sit on them" and lob one at non-nuclear Seoul. Possibilities are endless.

Before you know it "tactically nuking" another country is the new norm.

So sure it doesn't end the world like a full on nuclear war will - but it will turn chunks of it into a radioactive wasteland.

[Kinophile]

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1520192371929100294?t=G-d7UcZgfixDCjaNWzbscQ&s=19

Useful

[Taranis]

"Residents walk in the city of Mariupol as the soldiers of the self-proclaimed "Donetsk People's Republic" guard an area, April 29, 2022. ANDREY BORODULIN / AFP"

 

"Airmen push more than 2,000 pounds of 155mm shells destined for Ukraine into a C-17 aircraft for transport, Friday, April 29, 2022, at Dover Air Force Base, Utah. New York State. ALEX BRANDON/AP"

"Airmen from the 436th Airlift Squadron place 155mm shells on pallets of aircraft bound for Ukraine, Friday, April 29, 2022, at Dover Air Force Base, New York. President Joe Biden on Thursday asked Congress for $33 billion to support Ukraine's fight against Russia, signaling a growing and long-term US commitment. ALEX BRANDON/AP"

 

[Combatintman]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1520192371929100294?t=G-d7UcZgfixDCjaNWzbscQ&s=19

Useful

The intact bridge is actually two and possibly three crossings.  Nonetheless, that is a nasty fight if the Ukrainians choose to make it so.

Location:

Intact Bridges.kmz

Satellite View:

Oblique view looking SW-NE

[Cogust]

That 'probable power station' is definitely a hydro power plant, water intake on the South side and outlet to the East. There is also a road across the dam, so it's definitely crossable for infantry and light vehicles.

[Elmar Bijlsma]

5 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

And barring an utterly craven Western response, use of a nuke would bring China and the entire 'fence sitting' world urgently into the 'shut this maniac down, right now!' camp.

There is absolutely no 'win' for China in a nuclear war, whether or not it is a target (at once).

Among other consequences, I predict Japan would kit out a Trident fleet within 6 months to warn off both Xi and L'il Kim.

That is a key angle.

In my estimation, if there's one country that would hate to see the use of nuclear weapons, it is China. They know that they aren't under any kind of conventional threat from anyone. As such, a lowering of the bar on the use of tac nukes would be distinctly to their disadvantage. Not only would they hate it on the principle of lowering the bar on nukes and possible escalation, they'd be no fan of a nuke flinging neighbour in and of itself.

I would not be surprised if they have already notified Putin that they wouldn't be a fan of their use in Ukraine. And right now, China is the only friend worth having that the Russian cannot afford to piss off.

 

[gnarly]

19 minutes ago, Combatintman said:

The intact bridge is actually two and possibly three crossings.  Nonetheless, that is a nasty fight if the Ukrainians choose to make it so.

Location:

Intact Bridges.kmz 701 B · 0 downloads

Satellite View:

Oblique view looking SW-NE

I can see a BS map and scenario.....

[Los]

It's becoming likely full on war between Russia and the West is right around the corner no matter how much we try and noodle around the logic of it not happening. Better now to grab a hose, squat down and wash the sand out from between our legs and put ourselves in a position to ensure Russia is defeated. The world will either blow up or not blow up,  but until such time we should be focusing on destroying Russian capabilities as quickly as possible once the balloon goes up.

I think this means, for instance, war on the high seas, and hopefully the various fleets already realize this and are ready for the hair trigger notice they will receive that fighting has become general. I think a massive escalation of losses of Russian ships would be difficult to hide from the public. Is the Russian Navy in any better shape than the Army when it comes to sorting itself out? Probably not.

Los

 

 

 

[holoween]

19 minutes ago, Los said:

It's becoming likely full on war between Russia and the West is right around the corner no matter how much we try and noodle around the logic of it not happening

How does this in any way improve the russian position? Or what could they gain from it?

Because i cant think of any upside not even in the short term and certainly not in the long term. And it would just be insanity to involve NATO directly

[womble]

7 hours ago, db_zero said:

Speaking of the economy the Russian economy isn’t the only one in trouble-the US economy is looking shaky. Not in the same category as Russia but a severe recession is not out of the cards…

The war, following the COVID shock and the effects of Brexit has set the entire world's economy on a knife edge. Cost of living increases here in rightpondia are creating real pressures, but they are nothing to the problems that the lack of UKR and RUS grain and sunflower exports are going to create around the world*. The Chinese economy depends on the US economy and has its own structural problems, on top of the merely short term issues. Worldwide recession is, i feel, more likely than not.

* Or maybe this will be a stimulus to improve distribution networks so that the excess food that's produced can get where it's acutally needed... 

[womble]

20 minutes ago, holoween said:

How does this in any way improve the russian position? Or what could they gain from it?

Because i cant think of any upside not even in the short term and certainly not in the long term. And it would just be insanity to involve NATO directly

Still, better to have made the plans and set up the contingency orders, and not have to use them, than to be reacting in surprise to something you could have seen coming. Because even sane people make mistakes. And Putin seems to be staggering from one mistake to the next at the moment.

[mosuri]

12 hours ago, c3k said:

Older inertial guidance was subject to a lot of drift. On the order of 4 Nautical Miles per Hour was considered quite good.

Update systems were required for many of them. Celestial, navaid, radar, etc., to return the drift to a known position.

For a Soviet-era SRBM of the 60's/70's, meant to be equipped with a nuclear warhead, the drift would certainly be acceptable without the added expense of update systems or high-accuracy inertial nav systems.

The old "horse shoes and hand grenades" statement...

Modern ring-laser gyros, coupled with modern solid-state accelerometers produce accuracy several (3, 4, or 5) orders of magnitude better than the old "spinning mass" systems.

Thanks for the info! Didn't know the accuracy was quite that bad, although I was aware of some ballistic (not cruise) missiles using also celestial navigation. 

[c3k]

6 minutes ago, mosuri said:

Thanks for the info! Didn't know the accuracy was quite that bad, although I was aware of some ballistic (not cruise) missiles using also celestial navigation. 

Sure. It was possible to get better than that, but it was vastly more expensive to do. 

 

[c3k]

Russia's options:

I see Putin declaring a war (on May 9th) against the Nato-led and equipped proxy forces holding Ukraine hostage. It'll be a national crusade to free Ukraine, requiring additional effort and widespread sacrifice. It'll be hard, it'll be long, but like the GPW, victory will be theirs if Russia works and sacrifices enough. (Gotta be worthy, donchayaknow.)

Next, on the battlefield, the frontlines will stagnate as he tries to consolidate what gains have been made.

...and I really can't see the next step.   Russia is behind the curve compared to Ukraine. Every day that gets worse. Economically, militarily, and every other -ly, Russia cannot win.  Putin needs to grab a face-saving opportunity, clothe his dignity in whatever shred he grasps at, and then exit.

 

Meanwhile, back in reality-ville, with a stabilized front and Russian forces on the defense, it'll be Ukraine's fight to win. They'll start by shaping the battlespace. (<- That always sounds good. Need a powerpoint or three so I can give the General a cheesy "briefer's smile". Hell, if I were feeling cocky, I'd wink at him.) Long-range fires will begin to decimate the Russian artillery and LOCs. After a bit of that, then some accurate shelling of frontline hardpoints, followed by discrete but definite territorial advances.

Where first?

Cutting the land bridge to Crimea is ripe with opportunity. (About the time that's happening is when the bridge at Kerch needs to be dropped.)

Ukraine needs to advance to the pre-2014 borders before stopping.

[Combatintman]

2 hours ago, gnarly said:

I can see a BS map and scenario.....

Way ahead of you ...

Had to reorient the map to get the roads to sit better.

[Kraft]

Appearently in Kherson region the Russians noticed unrest and a general lack of USSR nostalgica. A Lenin monument was errected in response some weeks ago.

Its good to know they act so efficiently on problems that matter

Edited April 30, 2022 by Kraft

[kraze]

lenin invented most hated Ukraine so let's erect a monument to him

Russia is a true cargo cult of both Nazi Germany and USSR. They lack the military effectiveness of both and just quickly eat through the stocks left to them - but they sure as hell try to be the mix of the two.

[Aragorn2002]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ghost-of-kyiv-who-shot-down-more-than-40-russian-aircraft-dies-in-battle-q3sq0hztx

May this hero rest in peace.

Edited April 30, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Taranis]

"Residents under the eye of the soldiers of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic who guard an area, April 29, 2022. ANDREY BORODULIN / AFP"   * stated as picture from Mariupol

* AMN 233114 Tigr-M with remote controlled turret Arbalet-DM

Edited April 30, 2022 by Taranis