How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

nice job Putin.  How is that "roll back NATO plan" coming?

Live updates | Report: Sweden, Finland to apply to NATO (msn.com)

Two newspapers - one Swedish, the other one Finnish - are reporting that the governments of Sweden and Finland have agreed to submit NATO applications at the same time and that it will happen in the middle of next month.

The Finnish newspaper Iltalehti said that the Swedish government has expressed a wish to Finland that they apply together in the week starting May 22 and Swedish government sources confirmed the information to Sweden’s Expressen tabloid.

[akd]

Some FSB agent misinterpreted the instructions to include SIM cards in the captured saboteur / assassin group material:

Also read his directives a bit too literally:

(This is so ridiculous that I would assume it to be an act of resistance within the scope of not disobeying orders.)

Edited April 25, 2022 by akd

[The_MonkeyKing]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

nice job Putin.  How is that "roll back NATO plan" coming?

Live updates | Report: Sweden, Finland to apply to NATO (msn.com)

Two newspapers - one Swedish, the other one Finnish - are reporting that the governments of Sweden and Finland have agreed to submit NATO applications at the same time and that it will happen in the middle of next month.

The Finnish newspaper Iltalehti said that the Swedish government has expressed a wish to Finland that they apply together in the week starting May 22 and Swedish government sources confirmed the information to Sweden’s Expressen tabloid.

Finland is applying soon. Absolutely no question about it.

Sweden on the other hand is unlikely to be fast enough to apply at the same time as Finland. Their NATO process is a mess and just staring. Finland is already starting to wrap up, but might wait 1-2 weeks for Sweden..

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, akd said:

Some FSB agent misinterpreted the instructions to include SIM cards in the capture saboteur material:

Also read his directives a bit too literally:

 

LOL!  FFS, sure, I am a Ukrainian covert operative doing black bag jobs in Russia but I am definitely going to have my swastika flag and picture of Uncle Adolf with me at all times.  What part of subtlety did they not teach at Russian internal security school?  

[CHEqTRO]

Something is going on in Transnistria:

 

 

Edited April 25, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, CHEqTRO said:

That would show that tank on tank warfare has been limited or neglible, and that despite that, they still want to keep their tanks operational for use against soft targets. Some food for thought for the "tank is dead" argument.

Since WWII beginning someone (either Guderian or Stalin) has been credited with the phrase "tanks shouldn't fight with tanks"

During the war 2014-2015 HE shells were most useful for infantry support, positions hit etc. So its waste rate was high. I think some quantity of tank ammunition could be destroyed during explosions on storages in 2016-2018. And now, when the war more intensive and additional three tank brigades (3rd, 4th, 5th) of Reserve Corps are deployed, there is a need in much more HE ammunitions.

[Pete Wenman]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

UR-77 mineclearing vehicle usage in Mariupol

Question to all - but what is the thinking behind this being used in this way. Is it just being used in a quasi mortar role, as it does not seem to be taking advantage of the actual line clearance, nor being placed down a linear feature ?

thanks 

P

[The_Capt]

Just now, Pete Wenman said:

Question to all - but what is the thinking behind this being used in this way. Is it just being used in a quasi mortar role, as it does not seem to be taking advantage of the actual line clearance, nor being placed down a linear feature ?

thanks 

P

Pete,

  Looks like some sort of HE demo gun config.  One theory is that they are lobbing high angle so the line charge "plomps" into a pile and then just becomes a big bomb, that does match the video.  Or they are trying for a linear breach and wound up with a partial detonation, either way this is not what this kit was designed for but they have an alleged history of doing this in Syria (not fully on with the source).

https://medium.com/war-is-boring/assads-new-brutal-mine-clearing-tank-spotted-on-the-front-line-893967d17710  

[BlackMoria]

It is being used as a 'terror' weapon (quasi mortar).  It's accuracy as a 'mortar' sucks, especially in urban terrain.  The cable to command the detonation is going to drop on top of building, utility/power/phone lines, etc, dragging the main charge back some ways (you can see the rocking forward of the launch vehicle in the video of that very thing happening.

In short, it works fine as a 'terror' weapon since accuracy doesn't matter at all.  You just want something to do a big boom somewhere where you think people (and not your own troops) are...

[Huba]

18 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

Something is going on in Transnistria:

 

 

It is all over the Twitter now, but no more details so far. Let's wait and see, but might be important development.

[akd]

Crazy.  You can actually see shrapnel bounce off the road and hit this guy:

 

[Taranis]

48 minutes ago, akd said:

Some FSB agent misinterpreted the instructions to include SIM cards in the captured saboteur / assassin group material:

Also read his directives a bit too literally:

(This is so ridiculous that I would assume it to be an act of resistance within the scope of not disobeying orders.)

Note the green wig for naughty parties and Sims 3 boxes

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Kinophile said:

@The_Capt mentioned it earlier, and I'm also really curious about the UKR state of things.

We talk a bumpteen pages about Russia, Putin et al but we have little discussion on UKR mil-pol relationships. The screaming tantrum baby of Russia has gotten lots of attention, but we need to do some due diligence on the real player in this war, the one who actually matters (because without them this entire situation would not exist) - the Ukrainian Ground Forces.

How does the UA actually function within the political framework?

Do they develop and set their military goals in isolation?

Is Zelensky involved much or more just informed?

EDIT - Just saw this on NYT. Political related but still relevant. It set the bar for the military - No Surrender. Stand and Fight. At a moment like that, those words need to be said. This probably gave Zel a lot of credit with the UA.

What is the operational decision making process? Is there a Stavka/Joint Staffs?

How well do the UGF and UAF communicate & coordinate?

 

 

President Zelenskyi is Supreme Command-in-Chief. He assumes only political decisions and can agree or reject proposals of militaries for some actions and operations, of course, after discussions and recommendations of National Security Council.

The Secreter of National Security Council Olexiy Danilov. He considers as man of party of "hawks" in president entourage. All main decisions about startegy, military politic, relations with allies etc for president final approval. 

Minister of defense Olexiy Reznikov - in terms of war his role went on background, now his main duty is a questions of military supoprt of allies, funding of army, supply etc. 

Directly in development of military operations involve three main persons in the army (indeed more, but I meant only main) 

General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi is Command-in-Chief of Armed Forces. He participates in development of startegy of defense and military operations and also can aree or reject proposals before to propose own decisions to President. Now he is mega-popular in Ukraine.

Lieutenant general Serhiy Nayev - commander of the Defense Forces (in peace time - Joint Forces Comamnder). As I understand, he more responsible for coordination. Former JFO commander.

Chief of General Staff - lieutenant general Serhyi Shaptala. Development of operations. During battle for Debaltsevo in 2015 was the commander of 128th mountain infantry brigade, which was a backbone of UKR troops there.

 On lower layer HQs of Operative Comamnds West, North, East, South exist.

They have one more lower layer - OUV (ukr. "operatyvne uhrupuvannia viys'k"="operative grouping of troops"). For example, OUV "Sloboda"  on Izium axis consists of as minimum of three BTGs of 92nd and 93rd mech. and 95th air-assault.

Edited April 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

Bunch of derailed cars with BMPs

 

 

Edited April 25, 2022 by Huba

[Vanir Ausf B]

41 minutes ago, akd said:

Crazy.  You can actually see shrapnel bounce off the road and hit this guy:

 

Paging @Thomm

On 4/7/2022 at 2:26 PM, Thomm said:

Actually, my real question is: Why do we not see more airburst artillery shells in use?

Are they too rare? Too expensive? Out of fashion?

Best regards,
Thomm

 

[akd]

3 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Paging @Thomm

 

Something not very large hit a tree.  Maybe RPG round?

Edited April 25, 2022 by akd

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Paging @Thomm

 

I am not sure that was airburst.  If anyone who has been in combat can tell you, fast flying metal does some crazy sh@t and the human body is a weird bag of water.

I had an outer cordon security contractor take an AK round, right dead center of mass and he had no vest.  The bullet passed straight through and basically hit nothing.  Apparently there is an AK-sized hole in our guts that misses ribs, lungs, arteries and organs, and this round found it.  The guy was back up and on the line in a day - showing off the bandages.

Couple weeks later he stepped on a landmine and got his foot, left hand and and eye blown out.

War makes that kinda sense at the front end.

[FancyCat]

Good timing on airbursts, Trent Telenko had a twitter thread on it, where he thinks Russia does not have airburst shells. 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1517959072791805953.html

 

 

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Some FSB agent misinterpreted the instructions to include SIM cards in the captured saboteur / assassin group Also read his directives a bit too literally:

(This is so ridiculous that I would assume it to be an act of resistance within the scope of not disobeying orders.)

ROFL! You can´t make that up, can you? Brilliant! signed and best regards...N.O. Tintelligable

[Maquisard manqué]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

LOL!  FFS, sure, I am a Ukrainian covert operative doing black bag jobs in Russia but I am definitely going to have my swastika flag and picture of Uncle Adolf with me at all times.  What part of subtlety did they not teach at Russian internal security school?  

Erm, subtle as in leaving obvious breadcrumbs leading back to Moscow? Like with Litvinenko, Salisbury etc etc?

[billbindc]

 

Clearly a GRU op.

[kraze]

That "signature is intelligible" is like an icing on an orgy of evidence cake. Just perfect.

And then you ask why FSB completely effed up in Ukraine

[Taranis]

"Ukrainian soldiers dig a trench near Barvinkove, eastern Ukraine, April 25, 2022. YASUYOSHI CHIBA / AFP"

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

President Zelenskyi is Supreme Command-in-Chief. He assumes only political decisions and can agree or reject proposals of militaries for some actions and operations, of course, after discussions and recommendations of National Security Council.

The Secreter of National Security Council Olexiy Danilov. He considers as man of party of "hawks" in president entourage. All main decisions about startegy, military politic, relations with allies etc for president final approval. 

Minister of defense Olexiy Reznikov - in terms of war his role went on background, now his main duty is a questions of military supoprt of allies, funding of army, supply etc. 

Directly in development of military operations involve three main persons in the army (indeed more, but I meant only main) 

General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi is Command-in-Chief of Armed Forces. He participates in development of startegy of defense and military operations and also can aree or reject proposals before to propose own decisions to President. Now he is mega-popular in Ukraine.

Lieutenant general Serhiy Nayev - commander of the Defense Forces (in peace time - Joint Forces Comamnder). As I understand, he more responsible for coordination. Former JFO commander.

Chief of General Staff - lieutenant general Serhyi Shaptala. Development of operations. During battle for Debaltsevo in 2015 was the commander of 128th mountain infantry brigade, which was a backbone of UKR troops there.

 On lower layer HQs of Operative Comamnds West, North, East, South exist.

They have one more lower layer - OUV (ukr. "operatyvne uhrupuvannia viys'k"="operative grouping of troops"). For example, OUV "Sloboda"  on Izium axis consists of as minimum of three BTGs of 92nd and 93rd mech. and 95th air-assault.

Haiduk, thank you very much for that detailed description of the Ukrainian senior level of command.

Funny... last night I had to research this a little bit.  I learned that this structure is very new:

Quote

In March 2020, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky signed an amendment that separates the positions of the chief of the general staff from the commander in chief of the armed forces. This new system of command and control separates force generation from force employment functions, which is a core feature of Western military structures. 

This itself came from a 2018 law passed in the Rada to implement various changes (not defined in detail) to modernize and improve Ukraine's governance of the military.

Separating the Chief of the General Staff from the Commander-In-Chief of the Armed Forces is a good move.  One person doing two jobs is not a good thing, but one person doing two different jobs is really not good.

Steve

[Huba]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Separating the Chief of the General Staff from the Commander-In-Chief of the Armed Forces is a good move.  One person doing two jobs is not a good thing, but one person doing two different jobs is really not good.

High command system with proven track record for beating Russians:

 

Edited April 25, 2022 by Huba