How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[asurob]

Saw this quote on twitter...seems relevant given last nights spontaneous explosions inside Russia.

[Der Zeitgeist]

9 minutes ago, asurob said:

Saw this quote on twitter...seems relevant given last nights spontaneous explosions inside Russia.

"The drone will always get through."

[akd]

55 minutes ago, kraze said:

That "signature is intelligible" is like an icing on an orgy of evidence cake. Just perfect.

“Signature Unclear” is actually a well-known online alias in Russian neo-Nazi world apparently, so this may not be as amazing as initially thought.

[Haiduk]

Izium axis, Stugna-P crew hit 4 targets for 3 minutes like on the firing range. Russan spotting capabilities = 0. though, it seemed to me one BMP (?) made several shots "somewhere"

It's noteworhy, the operator commands in pure Russian language

PS. Flight time is about 11 second - the range to the targets is about 2200 m

 

 

Edited April 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[Der Zeitgeist]

5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Izium axis, Stugna-P crew hit 4 targets for 3 minutes like on the firing range. Russan spotting capabilities = 0. though, it seemed to me one BMP (?) made several shots "somewhere"

Great, just like Combat Mission, then. 

[sburke]

3 hours ago, akd said:

Some FSB agent misinterpreted the instructions to include SIM cards in the captured saboteur / assassin group material:

Also read his directives a bit too literally:

(This is so ridiculous that I would assume it to be an act of resistance within the scope of not disobeying orders.)

well I think that team is headed for Lerfortovo.  The level of incompetence just made their superiors look bad.

[akd]

@sburke @Kinophile

Acting commander of DNR 1st Army Corps Col. Eduard Pelishenko seriously wounded, raising question of what happened to 1st AK commander Sinenkov:

 

Edited April 25, 2022 by akd

[akd]

@Haiduk , please check above.  Translate is playing havoc with some of the source material.

[Haiduk]

17 minutes ago, akd said:

@sburke @Kinophile

Acting commander of DNR 11th Motor Rifle Regiment, 1st Army Corps Col. Eduard Pelishenko seriously wounded, raising question of what happened to 11th MRR commander Sinenkov:

 

@sburke @Kinophile

He is already acting commander of 1st Army Corps of DPR, not 11th regiment. The shell hit his comamand vehicle.

Edited April 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

It looks like Ukrainian counterattack around Kherson is picking up pace:

 

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, Huba said:

It looks like Ukrainian counterattack around Kherson is picking up pace:

 

There was a statement yestarday, Russians concentarted own forces in Blahodatne to attack in Mykolaiv direction, but were struck with artillery, lost dozen vehicles and retreated to Chornobaivka. There was claimed 8 villages were retaken by UKR forces in Kherson oblast, but unknown what exactly. Kherson sector is most "war fogged", many information about actions there, but almost nothing specifically.

In Vysokopillia Russians is gathering forces either to expand own zone of control to the north or to conduct next attempt to seize Kryvyi Rih. But they hadn't enough forces, I think for this tastk  

Edited April 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

Moldovan authorities commented on the explosions/ situation in Transnistria - looks like somebody blew up/ shot RPG at local government building, no casualties, authorities suggest that "someone" is trying to create tensions in the region.

https://newsmaker.md/rus/novosti/byuro-reintegratsii-vzryvy-v-tiraspole-predlog-dlya-obostreniya-situatsii-v-pridnestrove/

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, CHEqTRO said:

Something is going on in Transnistria:

 

 

I've been waiting for something to happen in Transnistria.  This is one of the primary areas ripe for disruption of long standing Russian interference.  We have several possibilities to keep in mind:

• Moldova did it to stick a finger in Russia's eye after the threats of last week
• Ukraine did it to stick a finger in Russia's eye after the threats of last week
• Local Transnistrian underground movement did it to stick a finger in Russia's eye after the threats of last week
• Russia did it as a false flag attack for some reason we don't yet understand

I'm going with the first option for now, though it could easily be the second or a combo of the two.

Short article on the attack:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/25/explosions-hit-security-ministry-in-breakaway-transnistria-a77485

Steve

[sburke]

32 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@sburke @Kinophile

He is already acting commander of 1st Army Corps of DPR, not 11th regiment. The shell hit his comamand vehicle.

guess that begs the question of what happened with a couple guys like the former commander of both 1st Army corp

[Battlefront.com]

Someone posted about seeing a Tweet about lots of DLPR casualties being evacuated by truck.  Got this from a friend, but without direct link to the source intercept:

Quote

Ukraine’s SBU published an audio intercept which, if accurate, told of RF ambulance crews resorting to trucks in the Popasna sector, because of all the casualties.

Steve

[akd]

54 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@sburke @Kinophile

He is already acting commander of 1st Army Corps of DPR, not 11th regiment. The shell hit his comamand vehicle.

Okay, thanks. I had that originally, but looking at the sources cited, thought he was commanding 11th regiment.  Will correct.  Was that his former post?

Edited April 25, 2022 by akd

[Haiduk]

Some updates. 

First of all this about JFO zone. LPR forces with support of Russian artilelry and aviation after about two months of shelling, bombing and assaults could take large Ukrainian strongpoint east of Novotoshkivs'ke settlement about week ago. Ukr forces withdrew to the settlement and held positions there, but since the enemy began to outflank them, advancing to Orikhove (also the clashes was so far and from the north near Nyzhnie), UKR troops abandoned compltely ruined Novotoshkivs'ke

On Lyman axis Russian troops could to advance too and seiz eastern part of Zarichne village and engaged UKR forces south near Yampil'.

Russians and LPR forces also activated on Severodonetsk direction, so we can expect assault actions of this city

Information about explosion of police building in Kreminna, where as if was a meeting of local collaborants, Russians and LPR commanders should be verified.

The map just for illustration. Actully frontline already near Nyzhnie (some maps show this settlement under LPR control, but there is no meants in their sources about this)

 Ruined Novotoshkivs'ke from the drone

  

 

Edited April 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[Greup]

5 hours ago, sburke said:

nice job Putin.  How is that "roll back NATO plan" coming?

Live updates | Report: Sweden, Finland to apply to NATO (msn.com)

Two newspapers - one Swedish, the other one Finnish - are reporting that the governments of Sweden and Finland have agreed to submit NATO applications at the same time and that it will happen in the middle of next month.

The Finnish newspaper Iltalehti said that the Swedish government has expressed a wish to Finland that they apply together in the week starting May 22 and Swedish government sources confirmed the information to Sweden’s Expressen tabloid.

A correction: The Swedish newspaper only refers to what the Finnish newspaper already published so not two independent sources. What is officially said is that the two governments are to give an answer to whether they will apply  for membership at a joint PM meeting in May. The reason for this would be to share the risks of a potential Russian aggression while in an applicant state should they decide to apply. (Many news sources think they will apply, though)

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

President Zelenskyi is Supreme Command-in-Chief. He assumes only political decisions and can agree or reject proposals of militaries for some actions and operations, of course, after discussions and recommendations of National Security Council.

The Secreter of National Security Council Olexiy Danilov. He considers as man of party of "hawks" in president entourage. All main decisions about startegy, military politic, relations with allies etc for president final approval. 

Minister of defense Olexiy Reznikov - in terms of war his role went on background, now his main duty is a questions of military supoprt of allies, funding of army, supply etc. 

Directly in development of military operations involve three main persons in the army (indeed more, but I meant only main) 

General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi is Command-in-Chief of Armed Forces. He participates in development of startegy of defense and military operations and also can aree or reject proposals before to propose own decisions to President. Now he is mega-popular in Ukraine.

Lieutenant general Serhiy Nayev - commander of the Defense Forces (in peace time - Joint Forces Comamnder). As I understand, he more responsible for coordination. Former JFO commander.

Chief of General Staff - lieutenant general Serhyi Shaptala. Development of operations. During battle for Debaltsevo in 2015 was the commander of 128th mountain infantry brigade, which was a backbone of UKR troops there.

 On lower layer HQs of Operative Comamnds West, North, East, South exist.

They have one more lower layer - OUV (ukr. "operatyvne uhrupuvannia viys'k"="operative grouping of troops"). For example, OUV "Sloboda"  on Izium axis consists of as minimum of three BTGs of 92nd and 93rd mech. and 95th air-assault.

Excellent, thank you!

Now this is interesting - you mention BTGs, but the UGF Mech. Inf BDE structure is often shown as separate inf, tank battalions.

I assume there is a significant difference with the Russian BTGs, otherwise this fight would look very different %D.

What's the structural comparison between R-BTG and U-BTG? 

Edited April 25, 2022 by Kinophile

[Haiduk]

Now look at southern front between Huliaypole and Velyka Novosilka. For last 4-5 days Russian could advance enough far west from Velyka Novosilka - further they threw from this small bulge own main forces, for example, to cut highway M15 Zaporizhzhia - Donetsk in area of Pokrovske in 35 NW.

Reportedly Russians gather much forces on south sector to offensive on Zaporizhzhia from Vasylivka - Orikhiv  - Huliaypole line and on Pokkrovsle NW of on Pokrovsk SE from Temyrivka - Velyka Novosilka line.   

As told different sources, Russian here have huge advantage in artillery, so there is alsmost no infantry battles, mostly intensive artillery duels. Ukrainian force here has BTGs of 128th mountain assault brigade, and some marines and air-assault as well as territorial defense units and differnt volunteer detachments. From Russian side - elements of 42nd motor-rifle division (mostly 70th, 71st regiments), also was reported appearance of small number of arab merceneries. 

In Mariupol, despite of Putin's order to stop assaults and block Azovstal, airstrikes, shellinf with artilelry and naval gauns as well as assault probes didn't stop.

 

[Haiduk]

3 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

What's the structural comparison between R-BTG and U-BTG? 

There is an opinion, Russians took idea of BTG from us, when Ukrainan army crossed to brigade structure from Soviet divisional-regimental. Though, in USSR BTGs and CTGs also existed, but just wasn't such term. This could name "reinforced battalion".  I can't say that structure of our typical BTG will very differ from Russian. But for real tasks strucures of BTGs can be completely different.

[Kinophile]

Thank you.

To be clear for myself, you're saying that the U-BTG is a more fluid formation, structured by task and mission, using elements as required and then folding them back into the Brigade? That is, it's TOE is not fixed?

And this is opposition to the R-BTG, which is a discrete formal formation, with an official, doctrine-derived TOE and ORBAT?

@Battlefront.com et al, what sources have you looked at for reviews, analysis of the UAs transformation since 2014?

Also, this Politco article on Zaluzhnyy has a line I'm very interested in:

Quote

Zaluzhnyy’s elevation to the top job was also a key part of an effort to restructure the leadership dividing operational duties and the planning responsibilities within the general staff.

RUS was expecting an enemy that, at most, would fight like them. They could crush such an force as it would play to RUS strengths.

But the UAs restructuring and redesign effort, from the top (as above) and down (ref NATO level NCO training) is the reason the UA can withstand this Russian Invasion. 

So this UA does not fight like Russia, yet it seems to retain the BTG as a useful concept - why? What are they doing right with BTGs v the Russians? 

Is it the UA's decades long emphasis on a professional NCO Corp and small unit leadership that's enabling their BTGs to be more responsive, flexible and fluid?

Edited April 25, 2022 by Kinophile

[Huba]

Reportedly more explosions in Moldova. It's getting interesting:

And here's Strelkov's opinion on what's happening:

 

Edited April 25, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

31 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

To be clear for myself, you're saying that the U-BTG is a more fluid formation, structured by task and mission, using elements as required and then folding them back into the Brigade? That is, it's TOE is not fixed?

Each BTG both and UKR and RUS is composing for own task. All what you see in open sources as "typical structure" is just paper BTG. Of cource, real BTG in most cases will match on 80-100 % with "typical", but, for example can have two companies instead three, artillery battalion instead battery, no EW unit, more supporting units etc

So, all BTGs in CM - UKR and RUS are "typical"

I don't know how it is now, but in 2014 each UKR brigade could establish only one, rare two BTG. Russian brigades and regiments could establish three BTGs.

Edited April 25, 2022 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

That's very interesting. So a UKR BDE could be considered the resourcing pool to equip it's BTG for whatever task?

Why are UKR Bdes so small, in comparison to RUS? Wide front to defend with limited forces? Focussing on Quality over RUS's quantity?

Have you seen the war forcing any changes in structure?

Edited April 25, 2022 by Kinophile