How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

If his morality is in question, Putin may have well launched the invasion with a eye on conquering Ukraine as quickly as possible, before his demise. Putin and Russian imperialists consider Ukraine to be a integral part of Russia, without it, Russia cannot compete on the world stage.

[MikeyD]

Pundits often talk about leaders wanting to leave a 'legacy'. If Ukraine had turned out to be 'easy' none of his neighbors on his western borders would have been safe. Putin wanted to be in the history books as the man who restored Russia to its former imperial greatness.

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

The question is not wether they think that they can spin this as a victory, is rather if they think that is better to (or they are able to just) cut their losses, and lick their wounds for the next round; or if they they think that the stratetig situation is too poor to be left as it is, and whatever cost a prolonged war might cause would be worth it in order to reverse (or atleast aliviate) their poor situation.

This is a question I've been asking myself and here for weeks now.  And I think we might finally be closer to seeing an answer.

If my guess is correct that the offensive has been called off, then I think the primary reason is that he finally saw that pushing ahead was a) going to fail and b) going to collapse his military 1917 style with the addition of YouTube/TicTok/Telegram.  If that happened the defeat would be certain and total.  Cancelling the offensive at least gives him a chance of finding another path to keeping his regime in power.

He had this clear choice in front of him and I think he's finally realized there isn't another option.  If he's called off the offensive then he made the best choice of two bad options.

I still don't see any way he's going to be able to end the war.  I still don't see any reason to think Ukraine won't launch successful operationally significant counter attacks soon.  Say, within a month maximum.  I don't think Russia can last more than a month or two into them before collapse becomes a reality.

So he might have bought himself a couple of months.  It will be interesting to see what he does with that time other than the obvious preparing for the inevitable Ukrainian counter attacks.  Because to win this he needs to do a lot more than that.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Three more victims of Stugna-P

 

[CHEqTRO]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The flaw here is that any outcome in Donbas will somehow translate to a better strategic situation.  Externally we already know that it is a frim "no".  A long war is in Ukarine's favor, not Russia's.  The West's attention stays on Ukraine and the money keep flowing, while Russia's economy and military keeps bleeding; in the long war, Russia is more likely to break than Ukraine.  No matter what happens in the next weeks, the west is not going to go "oh sorry about that" and stop support, pull back and reject Finland/Sweden into NATO, defund NATO and/or re-normalize with Russia economically.  Ukraine will be westward facing for a century no matter what happens as well.  Nothing in this whole Donbas dance is going to change the external strategic position.

So internally, what is the magic flag waving moment (that they cannot manufacture) that makes it better for an internal audience?  What are they doing this for if they can manufacture giant lies for their own people?

Don´t get me wrong, I agree that taking the Donbass would not suffice to improve the general strategic situation (althought they definitively need it in order to properly spin this whole ordeal as a victory, so there is that). However, I do not agree that the shift of the russian army to the southeast of the country has been done because of just political motives. The russian army was overly streched, so they just shorthened the line into their most consolidated position of the front. From there, they will (well, they will try at least) eventually keep on pushing deep onto Ukraine. I do not think that Putin has abandoned its maximalist goals against Ukraine, if anything, I would argue that they have probably expanded.

Thats why I say that it depends wether they decide to cut their losses and wait for the next one, or if they want or are forced into keep pushing. You have described the reasons why(NATO expansion and support, Ukraine westward outlook etc..) they cannot left it as it is, unless they are ready to accept total defeat and accomodate to that situation.

I would wait until the end of May and see wether Putin has or not enacted partial mobilization. That would definitively be a signal to their intentions.

 

[Ts4EVER]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

So he might have bought himself a couple of months.  It will be interesting to see what he does with that time other than the obvious preparing for the inevitable Ukrainian counter attacks.  Because to win this he needs to do a lot more than that.

Steve

Maybe he will try to use that time to muddy the waters in regards to his western "audience". Get Ukrainian war crimes, real or fake, into the media, maybe some fake referendums to make it seem like there is support for joining Russia, maybe even showing "mercy" to the Mariupol defenders to seem like the bigger man.

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is a question I've been asking myself and here for weeks now.  And I think we might finally be closer to seeing an answer.

If my guess is correct that the offensive has been called off, then I think the primary reason is that he finally saw that pushing ahead was a) going to fail and b) going to collapse his military 1917 style with the addition of YouTube/TicTok/Telegram.  If that happened the defeat would be certain and total.  Cancelling the offensive at least gives him a chance of finding another path to keeping his regime in power.

He had this clear choice in front of him and I think he's finally realized there isn't another option.  If he's called off the offensive then he made the best choice of two bad options.

I still don't see any way he's going to be able to end the war.  I still don't see any reason to think Ukraine won't launch successful operationally significant counter attacks soon.  Say, within a month maximum.  I don't think Russia can last more than a month or two into them before collapse becomes a reality.

So he might have bought himself a couple of months.  It will be interesting to see what he does with that time other than the obvious preparing for the inevitable Ukrainian counter attacks.  Because to win this he needs to do a lot more than that.

Steve

I think what we just saw was the Great Patriotic Offensive to Denatzify Donbas.  But Putin didn't want to say that because he didn't want to have to backtrack when it failed.   And for all the reasons outlined by Steve, Putin pushing a big offensive could end in things going really badly for him. 

Going w the prevailing opinions above, it will now come down to how Putin chooses to spin all this.  Knowing that the majority of Russians are totally buried in state TV propaganda, he's got a lot of choices.  He can pretty much make up whatever he wants to brainwashed people.  In the US when a certain news outlet actually started telling the truth about the 2020 election, all the viewers fled to places that would continue to lie them -- they literally can't handle the truth (so news outlet reverted to lying, but hey, gotta keep the viewers).  I think the same thing in a much more brainwashed Russia -- give them lies that keep their fantasy worldview afloat and all will be fine. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Hapless said:

Drills are not tactics, but they're easier to teach and judge. To train a platoon attack, go through the checklist from the manual, tick the boxes, training complete, well done, schedule again the next time the qualification comes up.

Free play exercises- where you *use* drills to practice tactics- aren't just harder to pull off effectively, but harder to justify in a budget because you can't be certain of the result. When you've got 3 platoons to qualify and a limited time to do it in, it's difficult to explain how you spent x hours on an exercise where all one of those platoons does is sit there, or where another one gets wiped out and the other is the only one that passed.

Yes.

This has been pointed out time and time and time again by military experts who have seen what these drills (including the snap ones) are like, and they universally panned them.  In fact, recent large scale exercises were said to have excluded various units that might "embarrass" themselves.  Cripes, if you're not even sure your units can follow a carefully rehearsed script... what does that say about readiness?

So when people wonder what the Russian military does with its "training" time, it's not like they are only sitting around stealing stuff and beating up the new guys.  They really are doing some things that would be recognized as training by Western standards.  But... I dunno, like the first month of basic training repeated all year long year after year.

The big problem is that every 6 months units get an influx of inexperienced conscripts.  The units likely have to do regressive drills just to get them onto the same page before the next batch leaves and a new clueless wave of conscripts hits the unit.  It never ends and therefore the unit never has a chance to be better even if there was the will to be better.

Steve

[sburke]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

@sburke @Kinophile

I hesitate to count this officer or not, but as you wish ) 

Colonel (DPR-promoted? Or posthumously?) Statsenko Alexey, deputy commander of armament of 1st motor-rifle brigade of DPR. 

Citizen of Russia. "Volunteer". He had a real Russian army lt.colonel rank, so he either retired officer -"volunteer" or "vacationer" and conducted a shadow command of DPR units. So this is a question who promoted him to colonel. 

Killed near (or in) Mariupol 31st of March.

 

Also two more separs high-ranked "officers" deaths, which became knowingly.

"Mayor" (LPR-promoted) Alexzndr Shepel, battalion commander of 2nd motor-rifle brigade LPR. Citizen of Ukraine. Considered as "best battalion comamnder of LPR". Killed 6th of March

"Captain" or even "mayor" (DPR-promoted) Agranovich Sergey, company commander of recon-assault battalion "Sparta" of DPR. Citizen of Ukraine. Fought since 2014. Killed 20th of April in Avdiivka area, Donetsk oblast.

 

 

I'll put them with Misha Chechen in their own little separatist grouping

[CHEqTRO]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is a question I've been asking myself and here for weeks now.  And I think we might finally be closer to seeing an answer.

If my guess is correct that the offensive has been called off, then I think the primary reason is that he finally saw that pushing ahead was a) going to fail and b) going to collapse his military 1917 style with the addition of YouTube/TicTok/Telegram.  If that happened the defeat would be certain and total.  Cancelling the offensive at least gives him a chance of finding another path to keeping his regime in power.

He had this clear choice in front of him and I think he's finally realized there isn't another option.  If he's called off the offensive then he made the best choice of two bad options.

I still don't see any way he's going to be able to end the war.  I still don't see any reason to think Ukraine won't launch successful operationally significant counter attacks soon.  Say, within a month maximum.  I don't think Russia can last more than a month or two into them before collapse becomes a reality.

So he might have bought himself a couple of months.  It will be interesting to see what he does with that time other than the obvious preparing for the inevitable Ukrainian counter attacks.  Because to win this he needs to do a lot more than that.

Steve

 Agree. One thing to remember is that even if the Russians want peace, the Ukranians do not have to accept it. They may be able to take the Donbass, but would they be able to defend against a fully mobilized and western supported Ukraine three months down the line? No way. Thats why he needs to either get a negotiated exit (not happening, because I doubt the Ukranians are going to give an inch of their pre-Febraury territory) or push for victory, either by destroying the Ukranian army, or by overruning enough Ukranian territory thats its economy its no longer functional. These are more reasons why the "propaganda" victory is not enough for them.

Edited April 21, 2022 by CHEqTRO

[Battlefront.com]

Oh, one item I meant to put on my list of things that might have changed Putin's thinking:

The Muskova was sunk and Ukraine definitely did that, however there's also been a spate of false flag activities by Russia to (probably) fire up public support for full mobilization.  They've shelled some of their own towns, they might have even been responsible for the fuel storage attack (too much fog of war to know yet).  A few days ago it appears some town/s in the Belgorod area were flooded and they claimed Ukraine blew up a damn in order to hinder Russian defense units for the up-coming attack.  There was also the railroad bridge that collapsed last week and, at least to some extent, was blamed on Ukraine.  It's possible these last two were just crappy Russian infrastructure failures that were convenient, but I wouldn't put it past Russia to flood its own people deliberately.

The point here is that these actions, no matter how they came about, have apparently failed to move Russians towards approving full mobilization.  This very well could have been what Putin planned on to replace his battered forces.  If that is off the table, in his mind, that should definitely change his calculations for what to do right now in Ukraine.

Steve

[FancyCat]

Did he call off the offensive in general or simply Mariupol? I believe it's only for Mariupol. Russia needs to keep advancing, cause they have not taken the de jure borders of the separatist republics and absolutely no "victory" can be called without that being conquered.

[The_Capt]

31 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I think today I have the answer... there won't be an attempt at a big offensive.

Whoa...we call the ball correctly on this, we should start thinking about moving to another business.

I have to agree.  I think an attempt to look like there is a big offensive without actually having one makes a lot more sense in all this.  And what we are seeing is the Russian military trying to posture-while-negotiating with its own political level.  Further all this probing and fumbling towards glory going on could be just so they can turn to the boss and go "we tried but it looks really bad.  Wanna just declare victory now?"

A lot of signals do kinda match up with this like the math not adding up on force-to-space.

[Huba]

21 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

Maybe he will try to use that time to muddy the waters in regards to his western "audience". Get Ukrainian war crimes, real or fake, into the media, maybe some fake referendums to make it seem like there is support for joining Russia, maybe even showing "mercy" to the Mariupol defenders to seem like the bigger man.

Ukraine having to go on offensive might be painted as "aggressor", while Putin comes forward with peace propositions. Pure smoke screen, but at least some EU countries might be against supporting "aggressive war" in Ukraine. This rhetoric  seems quite prevalent in certain countries like Germany and on the general left/ pacifist part of the spectrum. Instant peace is better then victory - that kind of thinking.

Also, M-84 for UA. In different source I saw that temporarily those will be replaced with German Marders

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by Huba

[TheVulture]

I'm not sure this can be said with 100% confidence, but it's still amazing that it is even something that might be true, given the force disparity at the start of the current invasion. 

 

 

[Huba]

I really hope that as next step Ukraine will get the PT-91s, to be replaced in Poland by additional batch of Abramses. 

Edited April 21, 2022 by Huba

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Did he call off the offensive in general or simply Mariupol? I believe it's only for Mariupol. Russia needs to keep advancing, cause they have not taken the de jure borders of the separatist republics and absolutely no "victory" can be called without that being conquered.

No, Putin only talked about Mariupol.  I'm making my call based on lots of factors, that included.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

24 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Whoa...we call the ball correctly on this, we should start thinking about moving to another business.

I have to agree.  I think an attempt to look like there is a big offensive without actually having one makes a lot more sense in all this.  And what we are seeing is the Russian military trying to posture-while-negotiating with its own political level.  Further all this probing and fumbling towards glory going on could be just so they can turn to the boss and go "we tried but it looks really bad.  Wanna just declare victory now?"

A lot of signals do kinda match up with this like the math not adding up on force-to-space.

Of course, there is a possibility that there's some masterful art of deception going on here... but since we've seen none of that so far, why would that suddenly be seen now?

My call that the internal struggle to determine what to do has ended is based mostly on Putin's call to not finish off Mariupol.  However, I could be wrong and that the struggle continues and that Putin might ultimately say "give it a shot anyway".  I really, really doubt that... but it is possible he is that stupid.

Steve

[akd]

This is very interesting:

If you look up AEVEX, they don’t seem to manufacture UAVs.  I suspect they are being used to transfer some existing platform to Ukraine.

Quote

Our vision is to be the recognized leader in full-spectrum airborne intelligence solutions. We take a long-term view of our relationships within the industry, partnering with our customers to rapidly identify, develop, and deliver tailored solutions for airborne intelligence requirements.

Our culture attracts and retains the very best talent, and we thrive in dynamic mission environments. Whether we are providing flight test support for the development of a new collection aircraft; operating a high-priority deployed unmanned aircraft system; or providing post-mission collection analysis for special operators, we follow through and deliver results, every time. We never lose sight of our customer, maximizing the full potential of our end users.

Our capabilities span three business units: Engineering & Technology, Flight Operations, and Intelligence Solutions. Through this combination of end-to-end services, we provide agile and customized approaches to the full spectrum of airborne intelligence collection needs. Our team supports projects both large and small, including turn-key Contractor-Owned, Contractor-Operated (COCO), Government-Owned, Contractor-Operated (GOCO), and Contractor-Owned, Government-Operated (COGO) services to the DoD, other government agencies, and commercial businesses. The sun never sets on AEVEX operations, with deployments in North and South America, Africa, Europe, the Pacific Region, and the Middle East.

Our valued end-user customers are diverse, including Air Force Materiel Command (AFMC), Air Combat Command (ACC), Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR), Army Research, Development and Engineering Command (ARDEC), U.S. Forest Service (USFS), Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC), Special Operations Command Africa (SOCAFRICA), Special Operations Command Europe (SOCEUR), as well as seven Unified Combatant Commands. We also support allied foreign defense customers and numerous commercial aerospace and defense partners in pursuit of our vision.

 

[Desertor]

Watching putler’s right hand clutching the table corner in his last tv images conforts my opinion that he had a brain stroke after the Moskva get lost in sea.

[Combatintman]

Our vision is to be the recognized leader in full-spectrum airborne intelligence solutions. We take a long-term view of our relationships within the industry, partnering with our customers to rapidly identify, develop, and deliver tailored solutions for airborne intelligence requirements.

Our culture attracts and retains the very best talent, and we thrive in dynamic mission environments. Whether we are providing flight test support for the development of a new collection aircraft; operating a high-priority deployed unmanned aircraft system; or providing post-mission collection analysis for special operators, we follow through and deliver results, every time. We never lose sight of our customer, maximizing the full potential of our end users.

Our capabilities span three business units: Engineering & Technology, Flight Operations, and Intelligence Solutions. Through this combination of end-to-end services, we provide agile and customized approaches to the full spectrum of airborne intelligence collection needs. Our team supports projects both large and small, including turn-key Contractor-Owned, Contractor-Operated (COCO), Government-Owned, Contractor-Operated (GOCO), and Contractor-Owned, Government-Operated (COGO) services to the DoD, other government agencies, and commercial businesses. The sun never sets on AEVEX operations, with deployments in North and South America, Africa, Europe, the Pacific Region, and the Middle East.

Our valued end-user customers are diverse, including Air Force Materiel Command (AFMC), Air Combat Command (ACC), Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR), Army Research, Development and Engineering Command (ARDEC), U.S. Forest Service (USFS), Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC), Special Operations Command Africa (SOCAFRICA), Special Operations Command Europe (SOCEUR), as well as seven Unified Combatant Commands. We also support allied foreign defense customers and numerous commercial aerospace and defense partners in pursuit of our vision.

If the above is too much of a read here's what it says ... "we make UAVs and flog them to the military."

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Combatintman said:

Our vision is to be the recognized leader in full-spectrum airborne intelligence solutions. We take a long-term view of our relationships within the industry, partnering with our customers to rapidly identify, develop, and deliver tailored solutions for airborne intelligence requirements.

Our culture attracts and retains the very best talent, and we thrive in dynamic mission environments. Whether we are providing flight test support for the development of a new collection aircraft; operating a high-priority deployed unmanned aircraft system; or providing post-mission collection analysis for special operators, we follow through and deliver results, every time. We never lose sight of our customer, maximizing the full potential of our end users.

Our capabilities span three business units: Engineering & Technology, Flight Operations, and Intelligence Solutions. Through this combination of end-to-end services, we provide agile and customized approaches to the full spectrum of airborne intelligence collection needs. Our team supports projects both large and small, including turn-key Contractor-Owned, Contractor-Operated (COCO), Government-Owned, Contractor-Operated (GOCO), and Contractor-Owned, Government-Operated (COGO) services to the DoD, other government agencies, and commercial businesses. The sun never sets on AEVEX operations, with deployments in North and South America, Africa, Europe, the Pacific Region, and the Middle East.

Our valued end-user customers are diverse, including Air Force Materiel Command (AFMC), Air Combat Command (ACC), Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR), Army Research, Development and Engineering Command (ARDEC), U.S. Forest Service (USFS), Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC), Special Operations Command Africa (SOCAFRICA), Special Operations Command Europe (SOCEUR), as well as seven Unified Combatant Commands. We also support allied foreign defense customers and numerous commercial aerospace and defense partners in pursuit of our vision.

If the above is too much of a read here's what it says ... "we make UAVs and flog them to the military."

Right year to be in that line of work....

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Of course, there is a possibility that there's some masterful art of deception going on here... but since we've seen none of that so far, why would that suddenly be seen now?

My call that the internal struggle to determine what to do has ended is based mostly on Putin's call to not finish off Mariupol.  However, I could be wrong and that the struggle continues and that Putin might ultimately say "give it a shot anyway".  I really, really doubt that... but it is possible he is that stupid.

Steve

Maybe but let's for argument sake that Russia pulls back and digs in and claims all lands south of the Dnipro cutting a line to Donetsk - the famous land bridge.  And then that hunk south of the Oskil, so roughly, and for arguments sake: 

By my math, that is an area roughly the same size as Ireland above and beyond the old DNR/LNR and Crimea lines.  Why not just call that, plus Mariupol and be done with it?  Victory, Peace in Our Time...now if anyone mentions it again, they get a free trip to a shallow grave.

I mean the Ukrainians are going to hack away at that but if you need a 9 May "win".

[Combatintman]

Just now, dan/california said:

Right year to be in that line of work....

Writing bollox or making UAVs?

[Huba]

Just now, Combatintman said:

Our vision is to be the recognized leader in full-spectrum airborne intelligence solutions. We take a long-term view of our relationships within the industry, partnering with our customers to rapidly identify, develop, and deliver tailored solutions for airborne intelligence requirements.

Our culture attracts and retains the very best talent, and we thrive in dynamic mission environments. Whether we are providing flight test support for the development of a new collection aircraft; operating a high-priority deployed unmanned aircraft system; or providing post-mission collection analysis for special operators, we follow through and deliver results, every time. We never lose sight of our customer, maximizing the full potential of our end users.

Our capabilities span three business units: Engineering & Technology, Flight Operations, and Intelligence Solutions. Through this combination of end-to-end services, we provide agile and customized approaches to the full spectrum of airborne intelligence collection needs. Our team supports projects both large and small, including turn-key Contractor-Owned, Contractor-Operated (COCO), Government-Owned, Contractor-Operated (GOCO), and Contractor-Owned, Government-Operated (COGO) services to the DoD, other government agencies, and commercial businesses. The sun never sets on AEVEX operations, with deployments in North and South America, Africa, Europe, the Pacific Region, and the Middle East.

Our valued end-user customers are diverse, including Air Force Materiel Command (AFMC), Air Combat Command (ACC), Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR), Army Research, Development and Engineering Command (ARDEC), U.S. Forest Service (USFS), Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC), Special Operations Command Africa (SOCAFRICA), Special Operations Command Europe (SOCEUR), as well as seven Unified Combatant Commands. We also support allied foreign defense customers and numerous commercial aerospace and defense partners in pursuit of our vision.

If the above is too much of a read here's what it says ... "we make UAVs and flog them to the military."

I learn about new type of UAV with every armaments package announced, including non-US ones. This looks more and more like some elaborate marketing scheme