How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Terrible accidents. 

I happened upon a US State Department report on the increasing risk of aging munitions stockpiles going BOOM due to instability and/or negligence.  It detailed them by year and incident.  IIRC it was about 15-20 years worth of data.  Russia had a major incident every couple of years.

Steve

[Markus86]

Did you see this already? Coincidence, sabotage, ...? 

 

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

We shouldn't go overboard with the Putin health speculations. If one compares the pictures to previous meetings with his cabinet ministers in his office, he simply seems to have a habit of holding on to things with his hands, even many years ago.

Edited April 21, 2022 by Der Zeitgeist

[akd]

1 hour ago, Combatintman said:

we make UAVs

AEVEX doesn’t, though, as far as I can tell.

 

[Huba]

5 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

We shouldn't go overboard with the Putin health speculations. If one compares the pictures to previous meetings with his cabinet ministers in his office, he simply seems to have a habit of holding on to things with his hands, even many years ago.

 

 

 

It's either grabbing the table or their throats probably

[The_Capt]

23 minutes ago, billbindc said:

There is a conversation out there about the end state Putin needs to stay in power and a fear that therein lies the potential for use of nuclear weapons to finish it on terms that Russia can live (sic) with. Personally, I don't see any way in which nuking Kyiv doesn't multiply rather than simplify Russia's problems but given the isolation and opacity of Putin's decision making process it can't be entirely ruled out.  

One thing we have learned in the last 77 years is that anytime a global nuclear power goes to war the nuclear specter is raised:

https://warontherocks.com/2018/10/how-close-did-the-united-states-actually-get-to-using-nuclear-weapons-in-vietnam-in-1968/

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/air-space-magazine/how-korean-war-almost-went-nuclear-180955324/

And here we are again.  It is a concern but I assess the probability as very low.  First Putin has to be insane enough not to see this as a highway to escalation that Russia is not well placed to win - he has to be wondering about all that BMD technology the US has been working on.  Second, those behind the throne need to be insane enough to hitch their wagon to this runaway idea.  Third, the military C2 structure under all of this has to be onboard and they can do the math as well.  I mean, yes, the mechanisms are there but a whole lot has to line up for it to really come off [aside: and I realize the irony of that statement given they just invaded another European nation].

More to the point, if nuclear weapons fly in this war then it will fundamentally shift the war itself.  It will no longer be about Ukraine nor will it be contained in the Ukraine, it will spread.  And that is a conversation I fervently hope we do not have to have.  It is also down the road of a fractured Russia, another Russian civil war, now with nukes.  So many dark paths here that a stupid fake May 9th parade and frozen conflict lines are starting to look pretty good right now.

Of course we are teetering on all Clausewitz had to offer here and that has to be making a lot of military theorists and strategist queasy right now.  The nature of this war is still: violent, human interaction and political but it is also things beyond that, it is also cultural and personal.  Putin pushing buttons would be personal, not political and the fact that is a real option kinda throws our concepts of strategy for a loop...well some peoples concepts at least.

[Vacillator]

7 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

We shouldn't go overboard with the Putin health speculations. If one compares the pictures to previous meetings with his cabinet ministers in his office, he simply seems to have a habit of holding on to things with his hands, even many years ago

After each of those photos the arm-wrestling began.  Holding onto the table was only allowed on one side .

[akd]

14 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

We shouldn't go overboard with the Putin health speculations. If one compares the pictures to previous meetings with his cabinet ministers in his office, he simply seems to have a habit of holding on to things with his hands, even many years ago.

I assume at least one digit is always poised over the button for the trapdoor to the hungry bear pit.

Edited April 21, 2022 by akd

[Fernando]

25 minutes ago, Huba said:

Comparing the scale of the economies, this is more then the whole US support so far.

 

Today the prime ministers of Spain and Denmark have visited Zelensky. The Spanish Prime Minister also came with a gift for the Ukrainians.

Around 137,000 people have arrived in Spain from Ukraine, most of them women and minors.
 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Interesting to see that speculation of Putin's and Shoigu's health is coming back around at this point in time.

Putin does not look well in that video.  Der Zeitgeist showed that maybe the hand grip isn't unusual for Putin (thanks for posting that!), but the jumpy leg and kinda slouched demeanor was interesting.  Could be that he's physically fine, but the stress of all of this is manifesting itself in physical form.

Steve

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

We shouldn't go overboard with the Putin health speculations. If one compares the pictures to previous meetings with his cabinet ministers in his office, he simply seems to have a habit of holding on to things with his hands, even many years ago.

 

Putin looks absolutely awful in today's video vs the older ones. He is slumped, he twitchy, and his voice is far less forceful. He very much looks like a guy with his health in decline.

 

cross posted with Steve

Edited April 21, 2022 by dan/california

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Fernando said:

Today the prime ministers of Spain and Denmark have visited Zelensky. The Spanish Prime Minister also came with a gift for the Ukrainians.

Around 137,000 people have arrived in Spain from Ukraine, most of them women and minors.
 

 

Any more specific info on the content of Spanish arms shipment?  The words about victory, not peace are also very important here.

Edited April 21, 2022 by Huba

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, akd said:

I assume at least one thumb is always on the button for the trapdoor to the hungry bear pit.

I bet he couldn't get sharks with frick'n laser beams on them either.

Steve

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Maybe but let's for argument sake that Russia pulls back and digs in and claims all lands south of the Dnipro cutting a line to Donetsk - the famous land bridge.  And then that hunk south of the Oskil, so roughly, and for arguments sake: 

By my math, that is an area roughly the same size as Ireland above and beyond the old DNR/LNR and Crimea lines.  Why not just call that, plus Mariupol and be done with it?  Victory, Peace in Our Time...now if anyone mentions it again, they get a free trip to a shallow grave.

I mean the Ukrainians are going to hack away at that but if you need a 9 May "win".

how long is that line?  someone the other day said ~800km?  So even at 100,000 soldiers that's not much strength.  And Ukraine will be getting much stronger in the coming months.  The water obstacle certainly helps in the west, but still a terribly long line if Ukraine decides to fight. 

[Battlefront.com]

Two more helicopters downed at the same time.  Boy, that's gotta hurt pilot morale.

https://m.censor.net/en/news/3335829/ukrainian_soldiers_destroyed_two_helicopters_of_occupiers_in_zaporizhzhia_region_khariton_this_is_we

Steve

[Desertor]

15 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Putin looks absolutely awful in today's video vs the older ones.  He very much looks like a guy with his health in decline.

Maybe is the novachock laced tea

[Fernando]

26 minutes ago, Huba said:

Any more specific info on the content of Spanish arms shipment?  The words about victory, not peace are also very important here.

Only what the prime minister has said is known. It seems that there are 30 Iveco trucks and 10 Santana Aníbal or more surely URO VAMTAC. The ammunition is unknown. Possibly more Istalaza C90, rockets for the Instalaza C100 Alcotán (some reports say some may have been delivered) and I guess mortar shells. I imagine that Ukrainian mortars can use Spanish 81mm and 120mm mortar rounds.

According to a survey by the CIS (Center for Sociological Research, the official government center for these surveys) conducted in Spain in mid-March, 71% of the Spanish population supports helping Ukraine. Even among the left-wing Podemos party, which is in government (the prime minister is from the PSOE, the Socialist Party), there is a larger majority than those who oppose it. 52% were in favor of a NATO intervention.
 

https://elpais.com/espana/2022-03-17/el-755-de-los-espanoles-teme-que-putin-invada-otro-pais-de-la-antigua-orbita-sovietica-tras-ucrania.html

Edited April 21, 2022 by Fernando

[Huba]

13 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

how long is that line?  someone the other day said ~800km?  So even at 100,000 soldiers that's not much strength.  And Ukraine will be getting much stronger in the coming months.  The water obstacle certainly helps in the west, but still a terribly long line if Ukraine decides to fight. 

If the Russian were to try to stabilize along the front outlined by @The_Capt, assuming growing strength of Ukrainian forces, how should they go about taking to the offensive? 

[Der Zeitgeist]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Could be that he's physically fine, but the stress of all of this is manifesting itself in physical form.

I think it's probably something like that, yes.

Putin isn't the evil mastermind, scheming Bond-villain figure he's made to be. He is a totally ruthless opportunist, but he doesn't have a master plan for the domination of Europe or something. He probably didn't even have a real plan for this war.

Now he's in over his head, and events are totally out of his control after he's united an entire continent against Russia. His advisors are probably trying to move him in a direction that will conclude the war in the near future, while his own propaganda machine in the media is spending every day screaming and agitating for world war 3 and total commitment.

That's not a situation where he'll get much sleep, if any.

[TheVulture]

21 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Putin does not look well in that video.  Der Zeitgeist showed that maybe the hand grip isn't unusual for Putin (thanks for posting that!), but the jumpy leg and kinda slouched demeanor was interesting.  Could be that he's physically fine, but the stress of all of this is manifesting itself in physical form.

That was my immediate thought.  Yeah,  he may be unwell,  but the sheer stress of trying to work through a war that he started,  and was quickly shown to be a catastrophic misjudgement, and being in charge as it goes from bad to worse... I'd imagine that stress takes a serious physical toll over the months. 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Maybe but let's for argument sake that Russia pulls back and digs in and claims all lands south of the Dnipro cutting a line to Donetsk - the famous land bridge.  And then that hunk south of the Oskil, so roughly, and for arguments sake: 

By my math, that is an area roughly the same size as Ireland above and beyond the old DNR/LNR and Crimea lines.  Why not just call that, plus Mariupol and be done with it?  Victory, Peace in Our Time...now if anyone mentions it again, they get a free trip to a shallow grave.

I mean the Ukrainians are going to hack away at that but if you need a 9 May "win".

War is not all about math, but sometimes math is unavoidably relevant. 

I measured a new front line a bit more precisely than The_Capt did, but I also cut out the Kharkiv nonsense along a defendable river just like he did.  I came up with 850km length.

Putting aside terrain features that require more less men to defend, this means that with a beefed up Russian defense force of 200,000 there's about 235 men per linear KM.  Figure 50k of that force is pure rear logistics/C&C and you get 176 men per KM.  Subtract from that probably another 50k for non-trench digging forces (artillery, air defenses, etc.).  Figure at least 1 BTG in reserve for each 50km of frontage (this horribly short of need) and that's another 17,000 out of circulation.  Even more should be subtracted, but I'll stop there.  That is less than 100 men per linear KM.

OK, so let's say we give Russia a leg up on the real math and presume 100 men per linear KM with a paltry 1 BTG covering 50 KM.  Stop laughing... I can only do so much I can do with what I have to work with!

Ukraine has more men now than Russia does. Their men are motivated, Russia's are not.  Ukraine is getting help from dozens of countries, Russia is getting shut out by most of the world.  Ukraine has a fully supportive population on its side of the line, Russia has a mostly hostile one feeding intel to Ukraine.  Ukraine has little to worry about in terms of enemy activities behind its line, Russia has a lot to worry about.

Most importantly, Ukraine will have have the strategic initiative.  It can elect to hit any point along the line it wants to, though some are obviously easier to hit than others.  It can elect to strike a place any time it wants to.  It can even strike multiple places of its choosing at any time.

Show of hands... who here would like to play the Russian side of a CM battle set up to simulate any of these Ukrainian attacks?  OK, of the few people that are gluttons for punishment, how many of you would expect to do more than watch your forces die quick and relatively pointless pixeltruppen deaths?

Russia has no military option to keep this war going.  I've been saying this since the first week of the war and now that the end is seeming to be nearer, I'll say it again with even more emphasis.

Steve

[kraze]

4 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

Putin isn't the evil mastermind, scheming Bond-villain figure he's made to be. He is a totally ruthless opportunist, but he doesn't have a master plan for the domination of Europe or something. He probably didn't even have a real plan for this war.

You are wrong. He does (or at least did) have a plan for both Ukraine and the rest of Europe.

Problem is, since russians are very much infected with their discount version of nazism - that plan was based on absolute delusions.

putin did grow up in a culture where he was told that only russians are the exceptional ones and Europe are just lackeys of the USA and thus are useless fools who are nothing compared to the Glorious Soviet Union and its titular nation.

So to him EU was both full of seemingly weak countries with the two most powerful ones, France and Germany, being completely on his side - so why not start a little victorious war against even weaker untermenschen, which will be over in 3 days? I mean when an unnamed EU politician (probably bald and German) told Zelenskyy "what sanctions? It will be over in a few hours" - can you blame putin for fooling himself?

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

If the Russian were to try to stabilize along the front outlined by @The_Capt, assuming growing strength of Ukrainian forces, how should they go about taking to the offensive? 

Now that is another conversation.  My thoughts are that this long a frontage is too long for the Russian forces, and they are likely to try and hand the defence off to as many contractors, DNR/LPR conscripts and Arabs as quickly as possible so that they can show the "Russian boys coming home".  So it will be a porous and brittle lines without integrated ISR or fires, its LOCs will be exposed and fragile as C-UAV is just not in the cards for Russia right now.

So my guess is that UA forces will still employ a hybrid approach but it will be to infiltrate, isolate and then destroy at key seams in the Russian defence, all the while hammering LOCs and logistics with deep strike capability. [aside: if the UA gets PSM HIMARS Ukraine could hit Moscow from its NE border...crazy].

Russian defence will buckle and then break as they slowly get chewed up but at this point Ukrainian political has to think about drawing Russian back in and trying to re-build, all the while keeping the good will of the West.  More likely, if I were on the Ukrainian staff I would advise to wait, build up and let the sanctions do their work while putting every single war crime investigation back on the front pages of western media.  Let a movie or two be made, starring Jeremy Remer - "Hells Factory - Mariupol" and then as Russia gets weaker and the UA becomes the best armed military in Europe, then I would go for the big wins and take it all back in 48 months.  When Russia, with a newly established government, is begging Ukraine not to attack across the border and the West is willing to pay them not to do it, that is what winning looks like militarily.   

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, Huba said:

If the Russian were to try to stabilize along the front outlined by @The_Capt, assuming growing strength of Ukrainian forces, how should they go about taking to the offensive? 

With how thin the Russian forces are, and how little they would have in reserve, I would not be too afraid to make very large and long maneuvers.  Because once the front vaporizes there really isn't much to stop a mobile force in that sector and not much to attack the flanks from neighboring sectors.

I'd get a significant partisan force going in the south (the start of one is already there) to really stress out the Russians in that area.  I'd pick a few sensitive spots along the DLPR line to cause some serious grief, but the main effort would be the south.

I would blow open the entire front line between the Dnepr and Donetsk, pretty much all at one time.  I'd have small pincers to either destroy or retreat everything that is forward deployed.  A large task force would go south to Melitopol and a secondary effort would push along the Denper towards Kherson (I am assuming getting over the river at Kherson is too difficult, BTW).  My ultimate goal would be to cut off escape to Crimea and then reduce all the forces along the Dnepr.

After this, I'd assess options and then work to eradicate the rest of the Russian forces in probably two more counter attacks.

I think this could all be done by the end of this summer and fall.

Steve

[Haiduk]

@sburke @Kinophile

I've found these two mayors are absent in your database

Mayor Sergey Kashanskiy, 19th separate special force detachment "Yermak" (Novosibirsk) of Rosgvardia, Syberian military district of Rosgvardia. Killed around 26th-28th of February

 

Mayor Sergey Reznichenko, chief of the staff of some supply battalion. Killed 13th of March.

On the photo he has lieutenant shoulder strps, but Russian artilce says he was a mayor: https://мтв.онлайн/feed/obshchestvo/na-ukraine-pogib-31-letniy-mayor-iz-volgogradskoy-oblasti-7128555454.html

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by Haiduk