How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[c3k]

2 hours ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

We shouldn't go overboard with the Putin health speculations. If one compares the pictures to previous meetings with his cabinet ministers in his office, he simply seems to have a habit of holding on to things with his hands, even many years ago.

Reports of recent tremors: Perhaps a dissident set off a bomb under the table during the afternoon military briefing? And Putin only survived due to the heavy wooden construction of the table. Maybe this caused more tremors. And the fires reported were the FSB trying to root out the Valkyrie dissident agents and said agents trying to cover up their tracks?

 

[c3k]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Now that is another conversation.  My thoughts are that this long a frontage is too long for the Russian forces, and they are likely to try and hand the defence off to as many contractors, DNR/LPR conscripts and Arabs as quickly as possible so that they can show the "Russian boys coming home".  So it will be a porous and brittle lines without integrated ISR or fires, its LOCs will be exposed and fragile as C-UAV is just not in the cards for Russia right now.

So my guess is that UA forces will still employ a hybrid approach but it will be to infiltrate, isolate and then destroy at key seams in the Russian defence, all the while hammering LOCs and logistics with deep strike capability. [aside: if the UA gets PSM HIMARS Ukraine could hit Moscow from its NE border...crazy].

Russian defence will buckle and then break as they slowly get chewed up but at this point Ukrainian political has to think about drawing Russian back in and trying to re-build, all the while keeping the good will of the West.  More likely, if I were on the Ukrainian staff I would advise to wait, build up and let the sanctions do their work while putting every single war crime investigation back on the front pages of western media.  Let a movie or two be made, starring Jeremy Remer - "Hells Factory - Mariupol" and then as Russia gets weaker and the UA becomes the best armed military in Europe, then I would go for the big wins and take it all back in 48 months.  When Russia, with a newly established government, is begging Ukraine not to attack across the border and the West is willing to pay them not to do it, that is what winning looks like militarily.   

My addendum: and Ukraine gets Crimea back and the PRE-2014 borders, reparations, prosecutions, and a Russian demilitarized zone extending at least 100km back from the border, and the elimination of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

[Battlefront.com]

Just now, c3k said:

Reports of recent tremors: Perhaps a dissident set off a bomb under the table during the afternoon military briefing? And Putin only survived due to the heavy wooden construction of the table. Maybe this caused more tremors. And the fires reported were the FSB trying to root out the Valkyrie dissident agents and said agents trying to cover up their tracks?

 

OK Boomer!  Bombs and tables, that is SO yesterday!  Russian kids these days are into Novachuck and polonium-210, not clunky old plastique.

Steve

[Huba]

43 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Standard play is "somebody else's kids" so they will milk that cow until it bleats (already have).

As to 100k or even 200k.  In the west it takes us about 1-2 years to create a functioning basic infantry person.  That is basic and battle school, even our reserves here in Canada take at least a year.  These are totally inexperienced with no heavy weapons training, minimum fieldcraft and just enough skill not to shoot themselves or each other too often.  

But this rabble do not make a tactical unit.  You need NCOs, Officers, technical specialist etc.  A recce troop takes 3-5 years to make, a good NCO 5-10, a junior officer (if one waives a degree requirement) 2-3 years - more if they are in a technical trade. 

So yes, if they want kids standing in trenches holding a rifle they could technically "mobilize".  But they will not hold ground under pressure and forget anything complex like offense.  I mean if you want third world quality, sure Russia can mobilize but they will get crushed in days.  The UA is producing veterans at an alarming rate, to the point I would be concerned about taking them on with a western military right now.  They are on their home soil so no worries about motivation, and they are being equipped with some of the best weapon systems in human history.  But I am sure Russia will stick an 18 year old with strange holes and stains on his uniform, in a different country, no real support and an AK with one mag and call it a "Wall of Steel".   

All I have to say about it is that I dread the prospect of counting the casualties of this war in hundreds of thousands. Hopefully it does not come to that, but if I was to bet, Russian mobilization and following bloodbath would be my pick. At the moment they (high command/ Putin) seem reluctant to looks facts in the face - a known condition really, but the reality is catching with them and they will have to act. Funnily, a parallel can be drawn here to how Stalin behaved before Barbarossa and in it's beginning.

Edited April 21, 2022 by Huba

[FancyCat]

59 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, but if sooner means "before Russia is fully baked" you can see the problem.  This will likely be conditions based and not a set timeline.  Unless you mean by "ending" simply giving up territory at the negotiation table, but I do not think that is reasonable. 

I am not so sure all our western political crap really matters in this.  Our options are back off and risk another Russian rogue movement or go with the Cold War strategy of containment.  This is bigger than political party cycles, or at least I hope it is.

I think for political, economic reasons, yes its important Ukraine preserve manpower, and build up, but its also important to liberate territory as soon as possible, so I'm going to assume Ukraine launches a offensive this summer, and pushes the Russians back enough to cause a general collapse, and Ukraine can push into the prior lost territory. Once they get to that point, yes Russia can keep fighting on, but I think the ability for Ukraine to push into new areas and threaten Crimea mean its either talks or the impending loss of Crimea and full defeat. 

56 minutes ago, keas66 said:

Is the Current US Administration really in that much of a hurry for this to end ? Apart from supplying arms and money - no American lives are threatened and we get to watch a Strong Russia turn into a mere shadow of itself .  Europe strengthens its own defenses and China watches from the sidelines seeing what happens when you try to go up against Western Trained Defense forces ... I'd like to see the US supporting this  until the Ukrainians have had enough .

Yes, the loss of Ukrainian and Russian exports will affect the supply shortage worldwide, causing more inflation and potentially more civil unrest, and of course risk nuclear war. I know people think war makes money, but defense makes money too, and whatever the outcome of the Ukrainian-Russian War, Russia will remain as a threat for arms sales, even in peacetime. Difference is, Ukraine can actually pay for it in peacetime. 

45 minutes ago, Huba said:

Could you please find one? Last I heard the push from Kharhkiv was beaten back to Donets river. That would mean a crushing defeat of 1/3 Russian army.

Meantime, this sounds quite big too:

 

 

45 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Nearest point to Kupyansk now, controlled by UKR forces on the R07 road is Korobochkyne in 60 km west

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-19-20-april-2022-43dee2800321

While I cant find the source for Kupyansk (it was from a Pravda interview with the governor but i got it 3rd hand), this says they got to Shevchenkove yesterday, but Russia pushed some forces to block them. I defer of course to you. Korobochkyne vs Shevchenkove, is a big difference, hopefully we will get word of the latter being true soon if true. 

[Huba]

7 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-19-20-april-2022-43dee2800321

While I cant find the source for Kupyansk (it was from a Pravda interview with the governor but i got it 3rd hand), this says they got to Shevchenkove yesterday, but Russia pushed some forces to block them. I defer of course to you. Korobochkyne vs Shevchenkove, is a big difference, hopefully we will get word of the latter being true soon if true

You almost gave everyone a heart attack  Even Shevchenkove would be a big deal, as Russians would have to decide if they are retreating now or risk encirclement.

Anyway, polish general Skrzypczak, former ISAF commander said in an interview that it was the push towards Kupyansk that forced Russian hand and made them start the offensive prematurely, before victory in Mariupol and gathering all the forces. They had to move some BTG against it, and general shooting started to prevent UA from moving reserves into the "breaktrough" there. Take it for what it's worth, just this guy's opinion.

Edited April 21, 2022 by Huba

[FancyCat]

https://www.benning.army.mil/armor/earmor/content/issues/2017/spring/2Fiore17.pdf

I assume this document is well read here, its on how a american BCT can fight and defeat a Russian BTG, apparently the BTG served well enough in Syria, since they had a wall of pro-Assad forces to be cannon fodder, and the BTG provided supporting fire. 

[Haiduk]

26 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

While I cant find the source for Kupyansk (it was from a Pravda interview with the governor but i got it 3rd hand), this says they got to Shevchenkove yesterday, but Russia pushed some forces to block them. I defer of course to you. Korobochkyne vs Shevchenkove, is a big difference, hopefully we will get word of the latter being true soon if true. 

Looks like Ukrainian advance to Kupyansk, Shevchenkove liberation and Russian counter-strike are fantasies of Cuper. He writes great artilcles, but I have imagimation, he often use that, what he calls "RUMINT", also he sometimes confuses in Ukrainian settlement names, so this is probably mistake. After UKR troops pushed off Russians from Korobochkyne, they secured NE flank with recapturing of Lebyazhe, Bazaliivka and Pechenihy. There is no any informationm - neither official, nor in social media about further advance and liberation of Shevchenkove. I don't know, where Cuper took it. All Russian "counter-strike" probably is official info for 19th or 20th  "Russians tried to attack near Stara Hnylytsia village, but w/o success" (this is 8 km SW from Korobochkyne)   

Edited April 21, 2022 by Haiduk

[Kinophile]

4 hours ago, AlsatianFelix said:

Today, the Aerospace Defense Research Institute in Tver Russia had an explosion and burned to the ground. They did Iskander and S-300 (?) research and development.

Also today, the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant in Kineshma, the largest producer of chemical solvents in Russia, had a major fire.

Hmmmm.......

 

Nah. Just incompetence is needed. Both facilities andle easily flammable substances. 

Rule out stupidity and incompetence first, then conspiracy. And stupidity has great depths to plumb.

Considering that Russian missile production has been suddenly overwhelmed by battle demands, I think a major accident was inevitable.

Two is a blessing.

Three would be... suspicious.

Edited April 21, 2022 by Kinophile

[Ultradave]

Someone mentioned hair loss and chemo. Not all chemo causes hair loss. Some does, some doesn't. Not all chemo makes you feel like $h1t. Some does (mine sure did), some doesn't. 

I felt like Putin looks in that picture. In fact, sitting up was usually a chore for the 12-14 days starting 36 hours after chemo. Then a few good days and do it again, times 6. Other people with the exact same treatment were able to go to work after 1 or 2 days off. Not me. Down for the count.

Only thing I'm trying to say is that I don't think you can tell anything from his appearance about cancer and chemo, unless of course some massive tumor bulges from his forehead.

Dave

[Haiduk]

UKR troops ambushed Russian supply truck, which carried 152 mm 3OF39 Krasnopol guided shells. Several of them looks quite intact, but after such explosion, its, alas can't be used safely.

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

The whole  ISW analysis is available now.

Edited April 21, 2022 by Huba

[acrashb]

5 hours ago, Erwin said:

"Seventeen percent of the uranium used at U.S. nuclear plants is imported from Vladimir Putin's Russia. In fact, half of our nation's uranium imports come from Russia and two of its satellites, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan..."

Canada has vast, proven uranium deposits and industry (maybe not government) would be thrilled to step up to the plate.

Between the pandemic and this war, a lot of strategic thinkers are re-thinking supply chains.  It's not all about money: risk factors into the equations.

[Fenris]

Example of the dangers faced by armour in Mariupol.  Ouch.

Edit - a tweet of this with some other footage was already posted by AKD on page 583, is longer and gives a bit more context.

 

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by Fenris

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, Fenris said:

Example of the dangers faced by armour in Mariupol.  Ouch.

 

I love how the video shows a tank being blown up, presumably crew dying a horrible death, yet the swearing is all beeped out - that's a weird type of sensitivity if you ask me...

Edited April 21, 2022 by Huba

[sburke]

Russia's economic outlook worsens: central bank survey (msn.com)

Speaking in parliament on Thursday, central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina warned of "difficulties" and the "structural transformation" of the Russian economy due to debilitating sanctions.

"Difficulties are appearing across all sectors, in both big and small companies," she said.

Nabiullina said the transformation of the economy, which has relied heavily on imports of manufacturing equipment and consumer goods, had begun.

"Due to sanctions, Russian consumers and manufacturers are losing access to markets for the import and export of finished products and components," she said.

 

 President Vladimir Putin insists the economy has managed to weather the barrage of unprecedented sanctions imposed since he sent troops to Ukraine on February 24......   yeah good luck with that.

[Phantom Captain]

17 minutes ago, Huba said:

I love how the video shows a tank being blown up, presumably crew dying a horrible death, yet the swearing is all beeped out - that's a weird type of sensitivity if you ask me...

I believe @Haiduk said this tank hit a mine.  Just like the BTR in the previous video.  The crew bailed and abandoned this tank.  It is funny though that that is considered "vulgar"?  

It reminds me of the Colonel Kurtz quote from Apocalypse Now.  "We train young men to drop fire on people. But their commanders won't allow them to write 'f#$k' on their airplanes because it's obscene" 

Edited April 21, 2022 by Phantom Captain

[akd]

Here is a longer YouTube clip for the T-72B3M hitting a mine in Mariupol.  Can pretty clearly see a TM-62 mine in the path of the left track in the view from the camera on the tank right before it fires its gun.  Then it reverses straight back unspooling the left track before turning sideways, probably immobilized, at which point the crew bails.

 

Edited April 21, 2022 by akd

[db_zero]

Don't know if this has already been posted...

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-04-21/us-rapidly-developed-ghost-drones-for-ukraine-pentagon-says

[Gpig]

23 minutes ago, akd said:

Here is a longer YouTube clip for the T-72B3M hitting a mine in Mariupol.  Can pretty clearly see a TM-62 mine in the path of the left track in the view from the camera on the tank right before it fires its gun.  Then it reverses straight back unspooling the left track before turning sideways, probably immobilized, at which point the crew bails.

 

woah! Good eyes, akd!  

[The_Capt]

ISW assessment is up for today:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-21

[Harmon Rabb]

42 minutes ago, sburke said:

Russia's economic outlook worsens: central bank survey (msn.com)

Speaking in parliament on Thursday, central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina warned of "difficulties" and the "structural transformation" of the Russian economy due to debilitating sanctions.

"Difficulties are appearing across all sectors, in both big and small companies," she said.

Nabiullina said the transformation of the economy, which has relied heavily on imports of manufacturing equipment and consumer goods, had begun.

"Due to sanctions, Russian consumers and manufacturers are losing access to markets for the import and export of finished products and components," she said.

 

 President Vladimir Putin insists the economy has managed to weather the barrage of unprecedented sanctions imposed since he sent troops to Ukraine on February 24......   yeah good luck with that.

Sanctions will make Russia's economy self sufficient and stronger in the long term. It was all part of Putin's master plan!

In all seriousness it looks like Russia's future is being China's gas station.

[Fenris]

Inside an abandoned T-72. Looks uncomfortable. Translation is from the youtube comments

 

Quote

English translation:

Title: "Let's look inside the remains of the enemy T-72 on the Gomel-Kyiv hwy after the battle for Chernihiv."

0:04 (Camera) Here we have two destroyed T-72s. Russian. Judging by the round tactical markings they came from Belarus.

0:14 This tanks still has the ammunition inside.

0:22 And here's a busted tank shell.

0:23 (tankman Oleg of the Chernihiv Territorial Defense) This is a russian T-72.

0:26 (video footage of the T-72 captured near Brovary in March).

0:35 (Oleg) The crew ran away so fast they left us their ammo. Look there: HE shells, projectile charge. The gun is "2A46M" same as on our T-64s.

0:48 But on a T-72 they have changed to a new gun sight. 

0:58 They have also installed a radio station here on the right. But someone has snitched it, perhaps they did themselves. See, it used to sit here in that empty spot. A new type of radio called "168U". It goes here below this gray box with automatic circuit breakers.

1:14 Someone has stolen it. Maybe they did it themselves.

1:15 Here in this empty frame used to be a night-vision sight for the NSVT (remote controlled AA machine gun on top of the turret.) This is all new on T-72. 

1:24 And the control panels are new. So I recon this tank was made circa 2014. It's considered a new tank.

1:32 Okay, let's see what else. Well… it's a goner. But it's **** anyway. Out tanks are better… What else to say. The crew ran leaving the lot to us.

1:49 The crew is thee, same as on our T-64s… A lot of stuff here is already stolen or broken. Someone made sure this tank would not be used again.

2:01 (camera) What did our guys do to it?

2:03 (Oleg) I didn't witness it. But I've heard someone with a call sign "Sable" reporting that a unit of our infantry supported by one tank, plus the Territorial Defense guys, have engaged two Russian tanks and infantry.

2:18 That tank over there was cooked with a Javelin, 100%. And this one was taken out by our tank -- it took out the right track. So this one skidded to the right and bogged down. They crew didn't know what to do and simply ran.

2:33 (camera) How many of these new upgraded T-72s do Russian have?

2:36 (Oleg) 72s? I don't want to talk out of my ass, but my suspicion is they don't have many left.

2:30 (camera) Same here. I see a lot of tanks without reactive armor.

2:44 (Oleg) Oh. This one has reactive armor built in. That's why I mentioned that this one is one of the recently made ones. Cause yes, they've got plenty of old T-72s with reactive armor bolted on top. But this one has it built into the tank armor itself, like on our T-64BM "Bulat" or on their T-90, which is another **** tank, btw.

3:01 We also have T-80s with built in reactive armor. And this one has it.

3:05 That tank next to us has burned down with its entire crew… Good riddance!

 

 

[chuckdyke]

The UN faces serious challenges. The right to Veto to start with. Why should five nations have the right to invade? Resolutions by the security council can be vetoed immediately. Putin abused the right to veto but he made clear how ridiculous it is. 

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, chuckdyke said:

Why should five nations have the right to invade?

That is not how the UNSC works, nor is it how the UN works.  Just because a country is on the UNSC doesn't mean that they have a "right to invade".  In fact no country has a "right" to invade under the UN Charters, it was kinda the point.  Problem is that the UNSC has become dysfunctional, and given the fact it survived the Cold War is saying something.