How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

23 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

BREAKING

Russian cruiser struck by Harpoon and on fire in Black Sea.

Rumour/radio intercept.

I’ll give this one a .01% “I Want to Believe.”  

But you’re saying there’s still a chance…

Edited April 13, 2022 by akd

[DesertFox]

 

 

[TheVulture]

3 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

I don't think so.  If I recall my limited military history of Zhukov, all problems were  nails to him and his hammer was to throw endless russian bodies at the problem until it was solved.  He was no Rommel or Guderian.  If this new Russian commander is cut from the same cloth, I don't expect any brilliant maneuvers from him.  He is old school Soviet military academy for one, and for two, the mud season will constrain any maneuvers.  I expect he will throw bodies at the problem in the hope that he can deliver the much need win that Putin wants for the 9 May parade.

True.  And if I can channel the absent JasonC for a moment,  most of Zhukov's successes came when he was working with Vasiliev. Without Vasiliev, Zhukov gave us such gems as operation Mars which was such a disaster that it was expunged from the Soviet histories. 

[Huba]

Just now, DesertFox said:

 

 

From this list, the "Unmanned Coastal Defense Vessels" sound most interesting. Any idea what actual vessels are those ? Some mine clearing ability would be most important at the moment I think.

[Seedorf81]

11 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Most of the new soldiers are basically kids with a few days of training so fire discipline is probably lax.

Social media is probably another factor- a tic tok video is worth a lifetime of memories so getting a good video with an AT weapon is gold to many of these internet savvy soldiers.

To be honest, if I had one of those launchers in my hands, I most likely would like to shoot it. Preferably in a relative safe environment.

Edited April 13, 2022 by Seedorf81
mistake, as usual..

[Haiduk]

13 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

https://ukranews.com/en/news/849331-russian-warship-moskva-is-on-fire-in-black-sea-media

It is being reported as the Moskva, the Black Sea fleet's flagship! Happy days!

 

 

Translation of dialog:

- We fu...g hit the cruiser! This is 100 % information, awaiting confirmatin that it sank completely. 

- The cruiser didn't sink, they told it burning

If this true, this is the third launch of Neptune. First missile reportedly was launched in Russian frigate "Admiral Essen" more than week ago. But by unconfirmed information the ship was damaged, but not seriously. Some sources told the missile hit in the water close to the hull, but this just a rumors level. I think all details we will see after the war 

[Aragorn2002]

16 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

I don't think so.  If I recall my limited military history of Zhukov, all problems were  nails to him and his hammer was to throw endless russian bodies at the problem until it was solved.  He was no Rommel or Guderian.  If this new Russian commander is cut from the same cloth, I don't expect any brilliant maneuvers from him.  He is old school Soviet military academy for one, and for two, the mud season will constrain any maneuvers.  I expect he will throw bodies at the problem in the hope that he can deliver the much need win that Putin wants for the 9 May parade.

Also my line of thinking. Fancy operations are out, they simply are not capable of that. So yes, the hammer approach, terror and massacre. And heaps of dead Russians hopefully.

Edited April 13, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[dan/california]

Just now, Seedorf81 said:

To be honest, if I had one of those launchers in my hands, I most like would like to shoot it. Preferably in a relative safe environment.

Is their fire discipline perfect, of course not, many of them are  EXTREMELY new at this. But all we had to send was the missiles. If you want the war in Ukraine waged with perfect professionalism a couple of heavy brigades, and a Marine division can dispatched at any time. The Ukrainians would be very happy to have them, every ticket would come with an invite to the best victory party in at least sixty or eighty years.

[Commanderski]

 

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, Commanderski said:

 

I live 20 km from this place! Also, there was similar video from Berlin a day or two ago, but the equipment there was in desert painting, so different batch. A lot going on, good for the Ukrainians!

[DesertFox]

22 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Translation of dialog:

- We fu...g hit the cruiser! This is 100 % information, awaiting confirmatin that it sank completely. 

- The cruiser didn't sink, they told it burning

If this true, this is the third launch of Neptune. First missile reportedly was launched in Russian frigate "Admiral Essen" more than week ago. But by unconfirmed information the ship was damaged, but not seriously. Some sources told the missile hit in the water close to the hull, but this just a rumors level. I think all details we will see after the war 

Well the plot thickens...Lets wait for other sources however.

 

 

[db_zero]

1 hour ago, Armorgunner said:

To get a perspective! 

Yes the Javelin is 70-80% of the time, a more competent missile than the NLAW. It has longer range, it has a dive attack to prevent any APS systems (Which Russia does´nt use any way). And in the open spaces of Irak, Javelin is the king!

But the cost of the Javelin? Just for the CLU, you get 7 pieces of NLAW! Then you want a missile to fire? Right? And thats another 6-7 NLAWS. So just to fire one Javelin, for the same price. You could fire 13-14 NLAWS! And according to the Ukrainians, the NLAW is very effective (not going down to numbers). And then its about 7 NLAWS fired, per Javelin in Dollars! And the other advantage of the NLAW is! You just need the target to be in sight for 2-3 seconds to fire. No 20-30 sec warming up the sight. 

 

But in the plains in southern Ukraine, I think the Javelin is needed in big supplies. Thats Javelin territory. The wooded parts of Ukraine, in the Kiev region, was NLAW territory.

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FGM-148_Javelin

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_generation_Light_Anti-tank_Weapon

Got to think the Russians have learned from their mistakes and this time around they will plan and do better recon before committing their main attack.

I think we will see a pre assault artillery barrage the likes of which has not been seen since WW2.

I also wonder if the Russians will use extensive smoke barrages to cover the battlefield. Even if Javelin’s and NLAWs have optics that can penetrate smoke it’s still a hindrance. If Russia has analyzed the Javelin’s optics it’s possible they could add substances to smoke to obscure or degrade the optics.

Im going to bet that the artillery and shells provided by the US include FASCAMs and other artillery shells designed to disable, destroy or impede tanks and IFVs.

In the past few weeks Javelin, NLAW and other weapons became household names. 
 

Don’t be surprised if artillery smart weapons become household names soon. We have some little known stuff designed for use against massed armored formations that aren’t well publicized and the Ukrainians themselves believe we will soon see a tank battle not seen since WW2.

Edited April 13, 2022 by db_zero

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Haiduk]

I trust this guy on 100% and more than official reports.

Translation: "yes." [regarding information about cruiser Moskva hit]

Some new details - the ship was in 20 miles from Zmiinyi island. Now four vessels around Moskva - the resque operation is ongoing. 

Edited April 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[TheVulture]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I trust this guy on 100% and more than official reports.

Tranlation: "yes." [regarding information about cruiser Moskva hit]

 

That's good enough for me to think it's very likely true: anyone who's been paying attention so have noticed that Haiduk isn't in the habit of posting rumours and sticks to information that can be verified.  And is usually the first person to point out when something isn't true.

[Hapless]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

... eons ago (last week?) there was a video posted of a Stugna-P operating holding out for a better target because the missiles were so expensive.

Relink, because it's interesting. My take was more tactical- that they were only likely to get a couple of shots off and were holding out for something juicy, a by-product being the joking that most Russian vehicles didn't justify the expense of the missile.

@Huba You got the right one , this is just the longer version I think.

[amadeupname]

So I guess the work on every CM title has just stopped so we can pretend we're defense analysts now? 

I have read everything in this thread from one crackhead schizoposting about crisis actors and ancient alien bullsh*t to several of you speculating about the possible deployments of WMD's and other such nonsense. 

Can we please get back to creating more content for the game? 

[Haiduk]

@sburke @Kinophile

+2

Mayor Alexey Martiushev. Killed 30 of March. No other information. Lived in Transbaikal region, maybe served in one of units of Eastern military district

Lt.colonel Denis Mezuyev, commander of 1st Guard motor-rifle regiment of 2nd Guard "Tamanskaya" MRD. News from 13th of April, but he can be killed earlier. 

 

[Maquisard manqué]

3 minutes ago, amadeupname said:

So I guess the work on every CM title has just stopped so we can pretend we're defense analysts now? 

I have read everything in this thread from one crackhead schizoposting about crisis actors and ancient alien bullsh*t to several of you speculating about the possible deployments of WMD's and other such nonsense. 

Can we please get back to creating more content for the game? 

Interesting approach to trolling the thread. Demanding work on the game like a spoilt brat…

[Elmar Bijlsma]

2 minutes ago, amadeupname said:

So I guess the work on every CM title has just stopped so we can pretend we're defense analysts now? 

I have read everything in this thread from one crackhead schizoposting about crisis actors and ancient alien bullsh*t to several of you speculating about the possible deployments of WMD's and other such nonsense. 

Can we please get back to creating more content for the game? 

For over two decades, Steve has found time to mix it up with us grognards. Far from taking away from development, I think it only improves the end product.

Who do you want to make your wargames for you: someone that watches CNN and thinks himself up to date, or someone voraciously doomscrolling and discussing events here?

[DesertFox]

Tractor brigade in action again...

 

 

[amadeupname]

Just now, Maquisard manqué said:

Interesting approach to trolling the thread. Demanding work on the game like a spoilt brat…

When's the last time we got an engine upgrade?

[sburke]

1 hour ago, Seedorf81 said:

On the new Russian commander..

Suppose, just suppose for argument's sake, that this Alex Dvornikov has Georgi Zhukov-capabilities.

Could he make a significant difference in the way the Russian army fights?

(By the way, I suppose it is a well known fact that Zhukov also was a complete ruthless man at times.)  

 

Actually, he's a pretty unimaginative commander.  His background was discussed a few pages back I think.  As to combat experience applicable to the current fight, nah Syria wasn't even close.  While it is a move in the right direction for the Russians to finally recognize their C2 issues, this guy is unlikely to make much of a dent.

however he definitely fits the mold for what Putin wants.

 

Quote

Dvornikov's military reputation is often cited in the international press for the harsh conduct of his military campaigns, particularly in Chechnya and Syria where he was described as the "Butcher of Syria" for his "scorched earth" campaigns.^[14][15] According to retired admiral James G. Stavridis,^[1] "The appointment of this new general indicates Vladimir Putin’s intent to continue this conflict [in Ukraine] for months, if not years...He is the goon called in by Vladimir Putin to flatten cities like Aleppo in Syria... He has used tools of terrorism throughout that period, including working with the Syrian forces, torture centers, systematic rape, nerve agents. He is the worst of the worst."

 

 

[FancyCat]

1 hour ago, TheVulture said:

True.  And if I can channel the absent JasonC for a moment,  most of Zhukov's successes came when he was working with Vasiliev. Without Vasiliev, Zhukov gave us such gems as operation Mars which was such a disaster that it was expunged from the Soviet histories. 

According to this article, Operation Mars was intended as a false flag: https://www.rbth.com/history/332003-most-successful-soviet-intelligence-operation

Looks like future access to Soviet archives in Russia is gone again.... 

 

[Huba]

It is fair to admit though, that there aren't that many living commanders with applicable experience at all at the moment. Maybe guy leading Israels incursion into Lebanon some years ago? Nobody else comes to mind really.

Just now, sburke said:

Actually, he's a pretty unimaginative commander.  His background was discussed a few pages back I think.  As to combat experience applicable to the current fight, nah Syria wasn't even close.  While it is a move in the right direction for the Russians to finally recognize their C2 issues, this guy is unlikely to make much of a dent.

however he definitely fits the mold for what Putin wants.