How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

51 minutes ago, Gary R Lukas said:

I just saw BMP-1's on the news, at first I thought it was just file footage, but then I saw the letter Z painted on their sides. If I had to take a guess I believe these units are from Russia's satellite countries, if not then the Russian's are taking vehicles out of mothballs!!!

They most likely are part of the DPR or LPR proxy forces.  Russia gave them a lot of outdated equipment over the years.

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

11 minutes ago, akd said:

ANNA News propaganda troops almost catch it:

 

I love how the guy kicks open the hatch as they speed away, so he can keep filming... got to get those pictures.

[Kinophile]

8 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

 It would be foolish to send our best weapons to Ukraine, while we may need them ourselves in a couple of months. 

To fight whom? Ze Russians? 60-70% of their entire combat troops are in Ukraine.

At this point Poland alone could handle Russia.

Edited April 13, 2022 by Kinophile

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Combatintman said:

No not quite - I have yet to meet a commander that admits they have enough ISR assets for a starter.  I don't doubt that the coverage is there but there are the issues of whether:

• The coverage is persistent or time limited.
• There are overlapping and separate sources reporting.
• There is information overload in the analysis cell.
• The analysed product is getting to the right people at the right time.
• That leaders make the right judgements based on the product.

Khafji in Gulf War 1 is a good example of how surprise by the Iraqi Army was achieved in the face of pretty good coverage by a headquarters that vaguely knew what it was doing ... 

"Throughout 28 January, the Coalition received a number of warnings suggesting an impending Iraqi offensive. The Coalition was flying two brand-new E-8A Joint Surveillance Target Attack Radar System (Joint STARS) aircraft, which picked up the deployment and movement of Iraqi forces to the area opposite of Khafji.  Observation posts 2, 7 and 8 also detected heavy Iraqi reconnoitering along the border, and their small teams of air-naval gunfire liaison Marines called in air and artillery strikes throughout the day. Lieutenant Colonel Richard Barry, commander of the forward headquarters of the 1st Surveillance, Reconnaissance and Intelligence Group, sent warnings about an impending attack to Central Command. CentCom leaders were too preoccupied with the air campaign to heed them however, and so the Iraqi operation came as a surprise."

Sure the Iraqis got booted out a few days later and the attacking force suffered on the way down to Khafji but the attack was still a surprise even though this was an advance over a piece of ground not well endowed with hiding places by an organization not known for its prowess against a Coalition led by a nation which had trained and equipped itself to be probably the most competent executor of conventional manoeuvre warfare at that time.

That said, I doubt that Russia will be able to achieve much in the way of significant surprise in where it decides to strike to the extent that Ukrainian forces will be unable to recover.  Likewise, the thing with surprise is that you need to capitalise on it by rapid exploitation, maintaining the initiative and thus ahead of the Ukrainian OODA loop.  The Russian Army has done nothing in this conflict that suggests it is capable of this.

Again, thanks for the insight from professional perspective.

The example you provided is a case of inferior force achieving moderate success in the face of vastly superior enemy. In case of current war the forces are much more equal, with Russian (arguably, especially after the defeat around Kiyv) being better suited to conducting large scale mechanized attacks and conventional maneuver warfare in general. IF they'd manage to make achieve comparable surprise/ obfuscate their real plan good enough as in example you provided, one would think it might perhaps go more the way of ignoring some Germans tanks being spotted in Ardennes? I do not think it's likely either, but the point of my initial post was just to provoke a mental exercise about how Russians should go about it. Not necessarily about where and when use their maneuver units, but also perhaps how to change the employment of supporting elements, air force etc. in general how to adjust given the reality on the ground. Care to take a shot at it?

One advantage (one can call it a reality check ;P) is that there's no longer doubt on Russian side against what kind of opposition they are going. There has been quite a debate here about do which degree Ukrainians defeated Russians in the initial attack, and do which degree the Russians defeated themselves. I'm not going to take a position on this one, but for sure this is something to take into account.

On the commander not ever having enough ISR assets, I'd assume that this is one area where NATO is contributing directly to the war (not that we will be informed about it). I doubt that Ukrainians get just raw data to analyze by themselves.

 

 

Edited April 13, 2022 by Huba

[dan/california]

I don't think one Russian tank would make it five miles past the Polish border at this point.

[Armorgunner]

7 hours ago, panzermartin said:

It wasn't a german initiative to push things in the East and ignite the mess we are in today. They are certainly not happy, they have deep bonds with Russia. It was Nuland who said on the phone f*** the EU. 

And if it's WW3, Europe will pay the price again and the ones that lead the situation across the Atlantic will once again thrive over our ruins. Does Germany really want to get dragged by US and UK, the centuries old imperialists that they were always at war with and burned their cities to the ground? And if this happens , they will have to first clear from their memory the last time they marched eastwards

 

 

 

 

Bad movie, but I gave you a like. Becouse the lady is very pretty 

[Armorgunner]

.

Edited April 13, 2022 by Armorgunner

[Bulletpoint]

12 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I don't think one Russian tank would make it five miles past the Polish border at this point.

I don't think one Russian tank would make it TO the Polish border at this point.

[dan/california]

14 minutes ago, Huba said:

Again, thanks for the insight from professional perspective.

The example you provided is a case of inferior force achieving moderate success in the face of vastly superior enemy. In case of current war the forces are much more equal, with Russian (arguably, especially after the defeat around Kiyv) being better suited to conducting large scale mechanized attacks and conventional maneuver warfare in general. IF they'd manage to make achieve comparable surprise/ obfuscate their real plan good enough as in example you provided, one would think it might perhaps go more the way of ignoring some Germans tanks being spotted in Ardennes? I do not think it's likely either, but the point of my initial post was just to provoke a mental exercise about how Russians should go about it. Not necessarily about where and when use their maneuver units, but also perhaps how to change the employment of supporting elements, air force etc. in general how to adjust given the reality on the ground. Care to take a shot at it?

One advantage (one can call it a reality check ;P) is that there's no longer doubt on Russian side against what kind of opposition they are going. There has been quite a debate here about do which degree Ukrainians defeated Russians in the initial attack, and do which degree the Russians defeated themselves. I'm not going to take a position on this one, but for sure this is something to take into account.

On the commander not ever having enough ISR assets, I'd assume that this is one area where NATO is contributing directly to the war (not that we will be informed about it). I doubt that Ukrainians get just raw data to analyze by themselves.

 

 

It is worth pointing out that the "take them by surprise bums/tank rush" is how. the Russians comprehensively lost the first phase of this war. There are just too many points of friction, from both outstanding Ukrainian performance, and their own limitations to do anything remotely creative. 

[FancyCat]

Something to note, prior to war Russia provided a demand for NATO forces to pull back to the 1997 borders, in effect giving up Eastern Europe. The ability for the West to negotiate out of this crisis basically required impossible preconditions that would have ended the NATO alliance.

[The_MonkeyKing]

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/04/13/statement-by-president-joe-biden-on-call-with-president-zelenskyy-and-additional-security-assistance-to-ukraine/

"This new package of assistance will contain many of the highly effective weapons systems we have already provided and new capabilities tailored to the wider assault we expect Russia to launch in eastern Ukraine. These new capabilities include artillery systems, artillery rounds, and armored personnel carriers. I have also approved the transfer of additional helicopters. In addition, we continue to facilitate the transfer of significant capabilities from our Allies and partners around the world. "

[panzermartin]

20 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

Bad movie, but I gave you a like. Becouse the lady is very pretty 

Haha, no Untergang is not bad actually. It's where all the Hitlers memes originated! Bruno Ganz is amazing.

[Aragorn2002]

14 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

To fight whom? Ze Russians? 80% of their combat troops are in Ukraine.

At this point Poland alone could handle Russia.

Perhaps, but I believe in being prepared. The war in Ukraine ain't won yet and whatever the outcome nobody knows what to expect after that. Perhaps it's just my Russophobia, it's hard to except the mighty Russian army is a giant on clay feet, as so many people think. If something sounds too good to be true it usually is. They still have a vast army, air force, navy and nuclear and chemical arsenal. We're not dealing with rational people here, but with fanatics with very dangerous ideals, who won't accept defeat until all is in ruins. Besides, NATO will never be the attacker, so we must be ready to defend everything and everywhere.

Anyhow, I will sleep a lot better after the battle of the Donbass is won.

[Aragorn2002]

1 minute ago, panzermartin said:

Haha, no Untergang is not bad actually. It's where all the Hitlers memes originated! Bruno Ganz is amazing.

I agree. Not a bad movie at all. One of the best on this subject in fact.

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

It is worth pointing out that the "take them by surprise bums/tank rush" is how. the Russians comprehensively lost the first phase of this war. There are just too many points of friction, from both outstanding Ukrainian performance, and their own limitations to do anything remotely creative. 

Well, the new Russian commander will either shoot himself straight away, or tries to continue fighting. Given the dire situation I'm sure he'll be as creative as he can. It might mean of course that he just shouts louder to press the frontal attacks  But perhaps he thinks he's smarter then that ? 

[panzermartin]

1 minute ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I agree. Not a bad movie at all. One of the best on this subject in fact.

+1 because I have no reactions left

[Armorgunner]

4 hours ago, Aragorn2002 said:

I like this man. And to be fair, what can NATO/EU do instead of supplying arms, taking up millions of refugees and implement sanctions. That isn't nothing and a lot more than the rest of the world is doing.

And they want Sweden to join them at the same time, to not have that emty space, between them and Russia. And I think Sweden will join them. And both countries together apply for NATO, at the NATO summit in Madrid this summer.

Sweden have a very small army, today. But it is on the rise! What Sweden have, is a strong Air Force. Becoming even stronger. And for littoral waters in the baltic sea, a decent navy. Particulary, the Submarines!

[Aragorn2002]

14 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

And they want Sweden to join them at the same time, to not have that emty space, between them and Russia. And I think Sweden will join them. And both countries together apply for NATO, at the NATO summit in Madrid this summer.

Sweden have a very small army, today. But it is on the rise! What Sweden have, is a strong Air Force. Becoming even stronger. And for littoral waters in the baltic sea, a decent navy. Particulary, the Submarines!

I think most NATO armies will grow considerably in the coming years. But such things easily can take 4 or 5 years. Main thing is we are finally awake. And with combined forces we can give Vlad another beating if necessary, even in our present state. 

I expect Sweden to join NATO, not so sure about Finland, but both countries will be more than welcome. They belong to the free West.

Edited April 13, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, Huba said:

Well, the new Russian commander will either shoot himself straight away, or tries to continue fighting. Given the dire situation I'm sure he'll be as creative as he can. It might mean of course that he just shouts louder to press the frontal attacks  But perhaps he thinks he's smarter then that ? 

Insofar as I can tell, and my opinion is worth what you are paying for it, he is trying to execute an actual military operation, as opposed to a drunken cluster*&%$#$$^, in the place where the Russians are best situated to actually do that. of course the Ukrainians know where that is. It is sort of amazing that the Russian staff schools either don't teach the battle of Kursk, or teach it wrong. My bet is that the Russians run out of people willing to feed themselves into the meat grinder long before the Ukrainians have to give up any ground that matters. Hopefully they will deplete themselves so badly  a Ukrainian counter attack can just run them right out of the country.

[The_MonkeyKing]

 

[Huba]

Just now, dan/california said:

Insofar as I can tell, and my opinion is worth what you are paying for it, he is trying to execute an actual military operation, as opposed to a drunken cluster*&%$#$$^, in the place where the Russians are best situated to actually do that. of course the Ukrainians know where that is. It is sort of amazing that the Russian staff schools either don't teach the battle of Kursk, or teach it wrong. My bet is that the Russians run out of people willing to feed themselves into the meat grinder long before the Ukrainians have to give up any ground that matters. Hopefully they will deplete themselves so badly  a Ukrainian counter attack can just run them right out of the country.

This is what I hope for either, ideally followed by collapse of government in Russia, revolution in Belarus, Georgia and Moldova regaining their separatist territories. And everyone living happily ever after
However Russians must be quite bothered by this notion and for sure will do everything to prevent it, the upcoming operation being first step towards it. Hence me trying to put  myself in their boots.

[dan/california]

Czechs. are getting things to front. Hopefully These showed with enough guided rounds to make this little offensive the Russians seem to be planning even less fun.

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Czechs. are getting things to front. Hopefully These showed with enough guided rounds to make this little offensive the Russians seem to be planning even less fun.

This is probably just 152mm Dana, some were sold to Ukraine before the war started. We'd have to wait for Zuzanas a bit longer I think.
Edit: oops, it already says so in the tweet itself. The first time I saw this video it suggested it was Zuzana.

Edited April 13, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

23 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Maybe someone who is actually Ukrainian can correct me if wrong but maybe outsiders are underestimating the level of internet infrastructure in Ukraine and underestimating how digital Ukraine is?

I think there is a certain degree of ignorance of pre-war Ukraine that many Eastern European states are brushed with concerning economics.

Also notable, Russia is pretty connected, at least urban Russia via the internet. The idea that Russia can do a wall dividing Russia and the rest of the world is sorta overstated?

@The_Capt

I already meant some things  about UKR internet infrastructure. Don't want to repeat, just say in whole again - decentralization, flexibility, survivability, revivalability. Fortunately, for 30 years Ukrianian state in bad sense of this word, couldn't regulate in tough way development of internet infrastructure and later development of IT-sector. Yes, some force structures extored the money from IT business, corrupted officials demanded bribes for "non-obstruction of business", but they didn't interfere to their work with instructions how to establish communications. So, as result we got very flexible network, which very hard to supress by single strike. 

I can add in the night before 24th Feb our cyber-forces with support of Western specialists repelled most powerfull cyber attack on our critical infrastructure, government resourses, network nodes. So, Russians conducted operation to "shut up" UANET, but failed.

Internet is enough accessible and relatively cheap in Ukraine. For example i use home wire internet with unlimited traffic for 4$ per month and 4G/12 Gb in cellphone for 5$ per month

Here, for example, a map of 4G cover

Edited April 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[Armorgunner]

To get a perspective! 

Yes the Javelin is 70-80% of the time, a more competent missile than the NLAW. It has longer range, it has a dive attack to prevent any APS systems (Which Russia does´nt use any way). And in the open spaces of Irak, Javelin is the king!

But the cost of the Javelin? Just for the CLU, you get 7 pieces of NLAW! Then you want a missile to fire? Right? And thats another 6-7 NLAWS. So just to fire one Javelin, for the same price. You could fire 13-14 NLAWS! And according to the Ukrainians, the NLAW is very effective (not going down to numbers). And then its about 7 NLAWS fired, per Javelin in Dollars! And the other advantage of the NLAW is! You just need the target to be in sight for 2-3 seconds to fire. No 20-30 sec warming up the sight. 

 

But in the plains in southern Ukraine, I think the Javelin is needed in big supplies. Thats Javelin territory. The wooded parts of Ukraine, in the Kiev region, was NLAW territory.

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FGM-148_Javelin

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_generation_Light_Anti-tank_Weapon