How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/in-kharkivs-rubble-hatred-for-russia-is-strong/

2nd last paragraph.

We're not the only ones think Russia needs a cultural reset.

[holoween]

44 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Well this was not a conversation about the carrier vs munition as I understood it.  It was about the rising presence of unmanned systems on the modern battlefield and the overall effect that may have on modern warfare.

You seem to be narrowing it down to carriers and munitions; however, it really much more than that.  ISR, comms and eventually resupply, medivac and shield functions are going to follow.

But hey whatever floats the boat.

Ok i see where the communications issue was. I apologize for not being clear and for not quoting well.

I was commenting more on the currently and near future use of UAVs and counters.

 

But to generalize for the future i dont think the mass drones armies are going to materialize. All promo ideas ive ever seen posted basically ignore countermeasures and assume ideal circumstances but ill have to write up a far larger post to cover that and im too tired atm so ill do that tomorrow.

 

 

[Machor]

Armour nerd posts. First Ukrainian Pion loss - captured by Russians. My metaphorical hat off to whoever builds the 1/35 Trumpeter kit with the Ukrainian digital camo:

T-64s of the 30th Independent Mechanized Brigade in winter camo:

 

[John Kettler]

Believe I have two significant developments to report. The Pentagon has leaked the conclusions of its own analyses of what Putin's really doing in Ukraine and how. They are emphatically counter the official narrative of what Putin's doing, regarding such things as objectives, force applied, targets, attacks on civilians and infrastructure, prospects for chemical attacks and more.

https://consortiumnews.com/2022/03/23/pentagon-drops-truth-bombs-to-stave-off-war-with-russia/

The second item is incandescent in its own way, for the Pentagon has now admitted it is providing actionable intelligence to the Ukrainian military--mere weaks after saying it wasn't! This goes a long way toward explaining the ever growing list of senior officers killed, wounded or captured. Some wounded and evacuated to Russia have since DOW and declared heroes.

https://geopolitics.co/2022/03/25/pentagon-targeting-russian-generals/

Regards,

John Kettler

[LukeFF]

27 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Believe I have two significant developments to report.

Nope, no - all of this was reported long ago. 

[Kinophile]

Yup we all figured as much.

Haiduk pointed out that UKR does have its own domestic and organic SigInt efforts that are perfectly capable of IDing hostile commanders, esp. with the godawful RUS comms opsec.

I think we all suspected that organic UKR efforts would yield a good strike or two, but the consistency and pace of the strikes Campaign has definite tones of western style Intel process and strike methodology. 

As with everything else, UKR are fast learners; give them the right tools & info and they will take it from there, with a vengeance.

Heres to more head-lopping efforts…!

[John Kettler]

10 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting.

We've seen this sort of OPSEC screw ups by the Russians quite frequently.  They try to keep something under wraps and then accidentally reveal it through a clerical error or not recognizing someone can connect the dots.

Back in the 2014/2015 days when Russia was regularly denying they had anything to do with the Donbas, they gave out an award that clearly indicated that the soldier wearing it was involved in fighting in the Donbas.  I can't remember what the screw up was, but it was a subtle detail.

Steve

Steve,

And let's not forget how Bellingcat comprehensively established the Russians supplied the Buk used to down the Malaysian Air MH17 (283 passengers and 15 crew killed), tracking it from IDed SAM regiment garrison, through pickup at border by a coerced trucker w/lowboy at the border, movement to the firing site, firing, reloading on the coerced truck rig, return. to the border, recovery by the Russians, and return to identified unit. It even had a pic of the military driver proudly standing in front of his tractor trailer rig with the Buk in plain sight. It was taken on his last day of service and posted on VKontakte. Have read the Netherlands government directly thanked Bellingcat for providing the irrefutable evindence of direct Russian involvement in the massacre. Believe SBU also provided the transcripts of intercepted calls between the Separatist CO and his FSB handler, too. 

Know there was a crackdown after that SM debacle, but either the lesson has been forgotten or the security organs are not too bright, properly motivated or both. 

Regards,

John Kettler

[Vet 0369]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It wouldn't have done all that much better in the end, I agree, but I do think a US force would be able to take over all of eastern Ukraine within a month with another week or maybe two to establish air supremacy and degrade various other defensive capabilities.

If that had happened, maybe the Russian's presumption of surrender would have happened without the need to do urban warfare?  Or maybe certain cities would surrender?

The problem with this analogy is that the will to fight Russians is rooted in the knowledge of what a Russian occupation would be like and what the long term aims of Russia are.  The US concept of nation building, though extremely flawed and riddled with hypocrisy, isn't the same sort of threat.  So it's really not a comparable situation.

I'm glad you brought this up. 

There's been all kinds of things throughout the history of warfare that people of the day said would never change.  Anybody see much evidence that the stunning successes of the long bow or pike still being around these days?  How about trebuchets or catapults?  Yes, there some analogs to these things on the battlefield today, but the weapons themselves and the tactics that went with them are GONE. 

This is my primary point about the MBT.  The thing that makes the MBT important is the role it fills on the battlefield.  If something else can fulfill the same role in a way that is overall viewed as "better" then that's the direction militaries will take.  The sling changed to bow changed to primitive firearms changed to rifled firearms changed to... well, you get my drift that the ability to project harm from a single person to someone else has remained over thousands of years, but the means of achieving it changes quite regularly.  Why should super expensive, difficult to field, awful to support, and yet highly vulnerable to vastly cheaper counter weapons stick around forever?

Steve

Well, when the Commandant of the Marine Corps and his staff decided to decommission Marine Armor and long-range artillery, they commissioned a new infantry battalion. My take on that is they feel a Marine Infantry Battalion is equivalent to their previous armor and big guns.

Can’t say I disagree

[John Kettler]

9 hours ago, dan/california said:

Things we seem to learned beyond all doubt in this war, tanks can't charge effective ATGMs being employed by competent and unsuppressed troops, it is literally suicide.

dan/california,

That point was definitively made when the IDF's 190th Armored Brigade was massacred trying to recapture part of the Bar Lev line in 1973 by AT-3s and RPG-7s. Can't say I'm shocked that half a century later the lesson has had to be retaught and even more painfully, relearned. Would note, though, the Egyptians cheated. How? By stripping out the antitank means of an entire reserve army still on the other side of the Suez Canal, so the Israelis faced twice the AT firepower they otherwise would've. And today's ATGMs are SF level relative to the AT-3s of yore.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

[John Kettler]

9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

RKG-1600 bombs (upgraded old RKG-3 HEAT grenades)

Haiduk,

Believe your characterization of the RKG-1600 is a bit confused. The grenade hasn't been upgraded, but merely fitted with fins so it can be used as an aerial bomb. Essentially, this is what the Japanese did when they converted 14" naval AP shells to aerial bombs, such as those used to sink the USS ARIZONA at Pearl Harbor.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Fenris]

1 hour ago, Machor said:

Armour nerd posts. First Ukrainian Pion loss - captured by Russians. My metaphorical hat off to whoever builds the 1/35 Trumpeter kit with the Ukrainian digital camo:

There was a follow up tweet re this one

 

[John Kettler]

Ref small EMP weapons, would like to point out a FSB sniper and target designation team in Ukraine in 2015 was carrying an anti-drone EMP rifle. It was clearly visible in the helmet cam footage recovered by UA SO troops. Would further note the US Army has a patented device which can turn a M4 carbine into a EMP weapon. Finally, would note that post-SU collapse, the Swedes obtained and fired a ex-Soviet NNEMP (non-nuclear EMP bomb, with results Swedish defense officials termed "devastating to electronics". 

Nine anti-drone weapons, ranging from man-portable to area defense.

https://interestingengineering.com/drone-hunters-9-of-the-most-effective-anti-drone-technologies-for-shooting-drones-out-of-the-sky

This could lead to grokking in fullness acquiring a wholly new meaning.

https://anti-drone.eu/products/jammers/grok-mobile-gun.html

Here's a new French one.

https://www.zdnet.com/article/an-electromagnetic-anti-drone-gun/

There's one that even has a NATO Stock Number

https://www.droneshield.com/dronegun-tactical/

Here's one that can not only defeat three NAVSAT systems (GPS, GLONASS and Beidou) but hit other frequencies as well.

https://www.ihuntdrone.com/product/anti-drone-rifle/

Wagner Group in Syria is using the latest and greatest Kalashnikov anti-drone rifle.

https://www.rbth.com/science-and-tech/326955-futuristic-firearm-russias-military-got

The above is by no means comprehensive, but it does show there are multiple anti-drone systems available right now, funds permitting and that some are already in military service.

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

8 hours ago, sross112 said:

The CAPT brought up a good point about the drones and having to cover LOC's. We have been talking about the MBT's and IFV's, but they have changed the game for everything really. Look at how much arty has suffered because of them and I'd even say AA assets. So when we are looking at the UGV/UAV game won't the best target be the control centers? How do you see the centers? I understand the pilots for some of the US drones flying around the world are actually within the US so will all of these vehicles be piloted the same way or will there be a hierarchy of command posts (plt/co/bn/etc) in the forward battle area. 

Also, does anti-satellite become crucial? If that is the medium for control and you take out those then the whole fleet becomes a mass of lawn ornaments.

sross112,

The well-known facility that's running Predators, Reapers, etc., is Creech Air Force Base.

https://dronespros.com/drone-pilots-daily-deployed-at-creech-air-force-base/

It's the secure nerve center, but the actual network proper is ramified.

https://codepinkgoldengate.org/creech-to-ramstein-a-network-of-killer-drone-bases/

Regards,

John Kettler

[BletchleyGeek]

3 hours ago, Phantom Captain said:

This is very graphic but very relevant.  I have to say the rescue guys are true soldiers and absolute heroes.

Seriously, FU Russia.

Now that was a hard watch, but necessary I guess.

Cheers to @Canada Guy for the article and thoughts on the post too.

[John Kettler]

1 hour ago, LukeFF said:

Nope, no - all of this was reported long ago. 

LukeFF,

How, please? Saw nothing earlier on those two topics in this thread and skimmed forward from 247 (where I was current to) until the thread and saw nothing on either the Pentagon counternarrative leaks or the admission of US provision of real0time actionable intel. 

Kinophile,

Concluding it was going on was one thing, but having an official admission of that quite another. In the former case, I argued by analogy, ref Falklands War, the US had done this kind of thing before, in terms of providing intelligence support, but also pointed out the positions were considerably different in that UK is part of FIVE EYES, and I forgot to mention such things as BRUSA, too.

Regards,

John Kettler

[db_zero]

Reading initial reports about the Ukrainian counterattacks and speculation that 10,000 Russian troops may be cut off around Kyiv.

Another report suggest just a major retreat.

Some people on social media are speculating there may be a mass surrender in a week.

If this does turn out to be accurate we may be looking at a mini Stalingrad. It would be a huge blow to Russia.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-has-launched-counteroffensives-reportedly-surrounding-10000-russian-troops/ar-AAVsUwC

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by db_zero

[John Kettler]

8 hours ago, Haiduk said:

24th Feb - one more video of helicopter raid on Hostomel. Civilains film from the road aside Kyiv reservoir somewhere near Vyshhorod town. 

 

Knew they flew low, but this makes earlier Russian heliassault helo footage look like high altitude by comparison. Guess the villagers lacked AKs and sporting rifles, unlike those Iraqi farmers who hosed US Apaches. If the Russians are going to fly that low, then maybe deploy elite skeet shooting and grouse hunting units to counter them? 12 gauge firing steel 00 buckshot would likely be damaging, and even disconcerting at that flight level suffices to create a crash. Something else that ought to be considered would be MONs and claymores ointed skywards, or even that useful German WW II method: command detonated explosive under piles of rocks to deal with low flyers attacking tunnels.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

Edited March 26, 2022 by John Kettler

[John Kettler]

9 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Zaporizhzhia direction. Captured Russian BTR-82A and T-72B mod.1989 or B3 probbaly in liberated Malynivka village. The tractor is present too )

.

Haiduk,

We should call Ukrainian tractors TRS--Trophy Recovery Systems, the shortened form of TRS4OSRE (Trophy Recovery 4 Operational Strategic Replenishment & Exploitation). While I'm being a bit waggish, will we find John Deere tractors on the ITAR list?

Regards,

John Kettler

 

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, db_zero said:

Reading initial reports about the Ukrainian counterattacks and speculation that 10,000 Russian troops may be cut off around Kyiv.

Another report suggest just a major retreat.

Some people on social media are speculating there may be a mass surrender in a week.

If this does turn out to be accurate we may be looking at a mini Stalingrad. It would be a huge blow to Russia.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-has-launched-counteroffensives-reportedly-surrounding-10000-russian-troops/ar-AAVsUwC

 

looks like a LONG way from surrounded.  But if supplies are cut and there's no retreat is as good as surrounded.  Hopefully Putin will declare the area a fortress and scream "not one step back!".  I love when dictators do that.

[sburke]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

looks like a LONG way from surrounded.  But if supplies are cut and there's no retreat is as good as surrounded.  Hopefully Putin will declare the area a fortress and scream "not one step back!".  I love when dictators do that.

It is all going according to plan.  All those Ukrainian troops will be tied up processing POWs while the real thrust goes after the true goal! The Ukrainian tractor factory!!! ... oh wait did someone say Tractor Factory?

[Vergeltungswaffe]

10 hours ago, OldSarge said:

While on the subject of counter UAV systems, AFRL's Directed Energy directorate has already been on it, first with a pilot project THOR. Looks like for the immediate future high energy microwave is in the cards, at least for area defense.
https://www.dvidshub.net/video/800274/thor-tactical-high-power-operational-responder

And now with a contract for a working weapon system Mjölnir
https://www.defensenews.com/air/2022/02/28/killing-drones-with-thors-hammer-air-force-eyes-counter-uas-mjolnir-weapon/

The not-terribly-distant future, imho, is UGV's armed with small caliber, but highly destructive, railguns, and 1 or more microwave emitters on top to fry drones.

[db_zero]

18 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

looks like a LONG way from surrounded.  But if supplies are cut and there's no retreat is as good as surrounded.  Hopefully Putin will declare the area a fortress and scream "not one step back!".  I love when dictators do that.

I’ve heard mention that ground that has been flooded plays into the equation but I don’t know if that is confirmed or true.

[John Kettler]

5 hours ago, Canada Guy said:

 I wrote my Masters Thesis on the Soviet army in Afghanistan and did see evidence of a change in tactics and improvements in performance over the 10 years as they implemented needed reforms, especially if you compare their performance in the first years of the war against their performance during the Apr 1985-86 offensives with their enhancement of CI/Air mobile units etc..

Canada Guy,

Would love, likely with others here,  to read your master's thesis. Please post a link if possible.

Haiduk and other Ukrainians,

In that French news broadcast the apparent Russian Orthodox cleric said Ukraine means resistance. Is that true? If not, what does it men?

Regards,

John. Kettler

[John Kettler]

Machor,

While the Ukrainian 2S7 appears normal from boradside, that's quite the flesh wound in the face! Do find it odd that the longest range artillery the UA has got catured even if immobilized, as oppsoed to far shorter range FA in service.

Those T-64s look to be camouflaged with plastic tarps.

Haiduk,

If you know, please, what's that song, so I can lok it up. Dig it.

Kinzhal observation

Believe we may be abble to get at least some sense of the Kinzhal's aerostructure from looking at the stout carcass of that Tochka-U in the Russian video shot at the Port of Berdyansk.

Regards,

John Kettler

[kraze]

11 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

But even if they are monsters who only care about killing innocent civilians, they should still care that their tires are rubbish, and that 60 pct. of their missiles don't work? You'd think somebody would have said "Hey, we can't massacre people effectively like this"

Ah, but all wars they fought were mostly on friendly territory or within reach of their big base.

Like Syria or Kazakhstan - they were invited by the friendly tyrant, provided everything they needed by the host so they could just drive and fly around bombing hospitals and schools and killing evil civilian nazis that committed a deadly sin of not loving getting killed.

Or in Georgia, which was small enough so that murdering and looting civilian nazis in Poti and Gori was within walking distance.

And Ukraine was expected to just walk into the trains to gulags with a smile, while giving away all the things to russians, so that they would kill whatever civilian nazis, that refused to board the magical train, from the comfort of their new flats in Kyiv, freshly liberated from other nazis.

But it turned out there are way more nazis than russians thought.

Which is surprising seeing as how the whole planet is nazi apart from russians and eritreans - should've used that cheap chinese calculator they give to their troops to make some adjustments at least.