How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Offshoot]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Unnamed Ground Vehicles are the wave of the future of ground warfare.

Ukraine does seem to be the Tomb of the Unnamed Ground Vehicle

[sburke]

Russia Accidentally Blows Up Own Oil Refinery in Attack, Ukraine Claims (msn.com)

oops

[mosuri]

7 hours ago, keas66 said:

Yeah my bad  - I caught the capital "S" and assumed

Yeah I was talking about this lovely guy, https://www.politico.eu/article/outrage-germany-ex-chancellor-schroder-gazprom-board-nomination/

My country has an ex-prime minister on Nord Stream payroll as well, so it's not only Schröder, but it's just disappointing to say the least. Either they are corrupt, or useful idiots. In either case they should never have been political leaders.

[The_MonkeyKing]

scratch one Alligator-class
 

 

Edited March 24, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[Fenris]

8 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

scratch one Alligator-class
 

 

Really?  Certainly looks like it.  Man, this is just one complete clusterf**k after another.  Unbelievable.  Where's the Capt Picard with his head in his hand meme??

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

12 minutes ago, Fenris said:

 

Really?  Certainly looks like it.  Man, this is just one complete clusterf**k after another.  Unbelievable.  Where's the Capt Picard with his head in his hand meme??

 

Yes really. Now I am ready to say 100% sure.

Questions now are was it only one ship, will it sink and what else was hit in the harbor area.

Edited March 24, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing

[kraze]

Pretty sure it sinking or not means little for the future of this ship from now on

[John Kettler]

4 hours ago, Machor said:

Did you intend to write 'Azerbaijan'?

Machor,

For sure, I screwed up what I wrote the first time, but am so mentally fuzzy right now that, even after checking, am sure I got the TBs on the wrong side, but also a) which conflict is the right one, and b) whether the video creator got something crossed up. Regardless, apologies for the resulting confusion, but. the core point remains: Unless the reports are completely false, the Karushka-4 is either temporarily or permanently damaging or destroying mission-critical electronics on the Bayraktar TB2s, downing those targeted.

As it happens, I have some experience with such things as HPMs (High Power Microwave) DEWs (Directed Energy Weapons) from my Rockwell days. Indeed, was a co-founder of the DEWWG (Direct Energy Weapon Working Group). Such energies can do all sorts of unpleasant things: including fricasseeing missiles on aircraft carrier flight decks because of the energy from a plethora of radar and other transmitters gets inside via a tiny crack and fries otherwise protected microelectronics, detonate fuel and ordnance, burn out radar and ESM receivers, etc. What will jam a radar at long range can damage or destroy all manner of sensitive gear at lesser ranges. Recall, too, this is a weapon good vs ground, air and space targets. A Swiss Army Knife EW system, if you will.

The traditional Soviet approach was to field a jammer to defeat each active surveillance or bomb/nav system the opposition (led by the US) deployed, such as SLAR, JSTARS, TFR. By those standards, Karushka-4 is not evolutionary but revolutionary, because it combines so many capabilities into one devastating system. The transliterated Russian acronym for what we in the west call EW is REC, RadioElectronic Combat, and now the Russians have not just a jammer but damage inflicter, even a target killer. This is precisely why there is such urgency to get that van back to the US and begin meticulous technical exploitation to see what this immensely potent weapon system can do. Even lacking the combined intercept and jamming hardware, about which a great deal can be learned from the imagery, knowing power supplies and so on, the real secrets of Karuska-4 lie in the computers of the command van, for that is where we will learn the Russian understanding of our various targeted systems and what the strike against them looks like, in terms of frequencies, waveform, signal strength, pulse repetition interval, ERP (Effective Radiated Power) and more.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 24, 2022 by John Kettler

[The_MonkeyKing]

Russian propaganda themselves claimed Tochka-U strikes shot down there couple days ago. Maybe some got though.

I think this would have been historically big accident in military naval accidents if it was that (not the biggest but still).

[Offshoot]

This was posted before this "attack". The Russians hit a shopping centre after seeing posts on social media, so the Ukrainians hit a shipping centre after the same?

 

[Der Zeitgeist]

15 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Russian propaganda themselves claimed Tochka-U strikes shot down there couple days ago. Maybe some got though.

I think this would have been historically big accident in military naval accidents if it was that (not the biggest but still).

I guess it's safe to say that Shoigu's "heart problems" will intensify.

[The_MonkeyKing]

2 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

This was posted before this "attack". The Russians hit a shopping centre after seeing posts on social media, so the Ukrainians hit a shipping centre after the same?

Pretty sure the Russian propaganda posts had no effect. I am sure UKR has good sources on the area and know about the ship concentration. 

[TheVulture]

From the videos and images combined it looks to me like it was the storage tanks on the dock that were burning and exploded.  But that looks very close to the ship, so it might easily have caught fire too and/or been damaged by the explosion.  And it does look like there is one flash at least that comes from the hull of the ship.

[John Kettler]

31 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Yes really. Now I am ready to say 100% sure.

Questions now are was it only one ship, will it sink and what else was hit in the harbor area.

The official score is one sunk, two damaged and some fatalities to those aboard these vessels--all from the previously unknown ship-killer Tochka-U!  Just imagine 50 of these 9n24 submunitions plummeting down onto the decks of LST equivalents likely loaded with fuel and ammo on the decks and maybe on the docks, too. Never mind what's inside any AFVs carried. Those crump sounds are ammo exploding. 

 

OSINTdefender Retweeted

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Granger

 

@GrangerE04117

 

Details I got about the attack. At 7:45 AM, a Tochka-U SRBM was fired towards the landing ships Saratov, Tsesar Kunikov, and Novocherkassk. > Saratov sunk at a depth of 5 meters > Kunikov and Novercherkassk left port damaged. 8 killed on Kunikov and 3 killed and 3 injured..

Quote Tweet

 

 

Aleph א 

 

@no_itsmyturn

· 43m

Ukrainian Navy confirms that the Russian BDK-69 Orsk vessel was destroyed at the Berdyans'k port, Zaporizhzhia oblast

https://armamentresearch.com/9n123k-cluster-munition-and-9n24-submunitions-in-syria/

Oryx will now have to add a new category to his list of destroyed and captured weapons!  And defense planners now have a whole new antiship threat to worry about. While it's possible to argue that at least some losses from wiped out CPs are tolerable, the direct hit on Russian military capabilities delivered by that brilliant and highly effective Tochku-U strike will be far more measurable and harshly felt, in terms of direct impact on combat power and sustainment on one hand but in terms of foreclosing of previous military options on the other. There is no quick fix for a blow of this magnitude, especially for a force already in acute logistic crisis. Nor, I'm sure, did the planners ever envisage sustaining such devastating losses in a veritable eye blink. It's one thing to maybe lose a patrol craft to an ATGM, but another to lose an entire modernish landing ship loaded with weapons and stores, almost losing three, at that. The Russians should be grateful that these vessels were apparently not carrying the Russian marines in addition to the other cargo. For then, outright catastrophe would've likely ensued.
 

Capacity	10 main battle tanks and 340 troops  or 12 BTR and 340 troops or 3 main battle tanks, 3 2S9 Nona-S, 5 MT-LB, 4 army trucks and 313 troops or 500 tons of cargo
Complement	87–98
Armament	2 × 2 57 mm AK-257 guns (Ropucha I) 1 × 76 mm AK-176 (Ropucha II) 2 × 30 122 mm rocket launcher A-215 Grad-M Strela 2(SA-N-5) surface-to-air missile system (4 launchers) 2 × 30 mm AK-630 six-barreled gatlingguns (Ropucha II)

The Ropucha class, Soviet designation Project 775, is a class of landing ships (large landing ship in Soviet classification) built in Poland for the Soviet Navy. The ships were built in Poland in the Stocznia Północna shipyards in Gdańsk. Designed for beach landings, they can carry a 450-ton cargo. The ships have both bow- and stern-doors for loading and unloading vehicles, and the 630 square metres (6,800 sq ft) of vehicle deck stretches the length of the hull. Up to 25 armored personnel carriers can be embarked.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

[Bulletpoint]

7 hours ago, keas66 said:

I get his points about this may not be the end of  tanks  and IFV's if used correctly ( not like the Russians ) but I think he is being a little too even / a little too blind to the level of  destruction going on and the efforts being put in to track  Russian versus Ukrainian Losses  .

When you spend years becoming an expert on tanks, it's probably difficult to accept that they are now obsolete.

[The_MonkeyKing]

15 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

When you spend years becoming an expert on tanks, it's probably difficult to accept that they are now obsolete.

This is untrue especially so for modern APS equipped tanks. For example M1A2 sepv3 trophy

It can be argued that operating older tanks against top of the line AT weapon system equipped enemy might be called obsolete. And even this can be mitigated with appropriate tactical usage.

[Hapless]

Remember when infantry became obsolete when the first caveman hit another with a rock?

Vulnerability doesn't make things obsolete guys, come on.

[Der Zeitgeist]

3 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

This is untrue especially so for modern APS equipped tanks. For example M1A2 sepv3 trophy

It can be argued that operating older tanks against top of the line AT weapon system equipped enemy might be called obsolete. And even this can be mitigated with appropriate tactical usage.

This

This war will be the best free advertising for APS since the 2006 war in Lebanon.

[DesertFox]

Interesting thread on who is actually doing the job in the russian army:

 

 

[Thomm]

8 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Interesting thread on who is actually doing the job in the russian army:

Interesting indeed.

This reminds me how I explained to my daughter that something like WW2 is hardly possible any more, because there are not enough young males around, at least in first-world countries. Seems that I was at least partially right.

My grandparents all had 10+ siblings. Way easier to send some of them off to the front than with todays one or two children families.

Best regards
Thomm

[Haiduk]

8 hours ago, John Kettler said:

Haiduk,

Is there any news yet which would allow us to sort out Azov's ATGM attacks on one or two 03160 Raptor patrol craft? The original video was very hard for me to follow, because, as opposed to the usual jihadi video when ATGMs are used, it wasn't shot from at or near the launcher. Based on what little I could see, I couldn't tell you how many Raptors were present to begin with, and at best, would say one hit was obtained. Do we know for sure how many vessels were engaged, how many hits obtained? Any word on damage sustained on struck Raptor or damages sustained if two were hit? Were there any radio transmissions made by the ship or ships engaged? If so, what was said.

Now we have only information from Russian social media that one Raptor was damaged, disabled and towed to Eysk port, 2 WIA. Azov claimed one Raptor sank, other damaged. No other info. Recently our MoD reported two Raptors were sank diring attampt of landing in Ochakiv port in the beginning of March.

[Rinaldi]

53 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

When you spend years becoming an expert on tanks, it's probably difficult to accept that they are now obsolete.

lmao

[DesertFox]

We don´t know how it will end, but when it ends, assuming nobody will push nuclear buttons, then the pariah states future is not bright at all.

 

 

[Haiduk]

18 hours ago, DesertFox said:

@Haiduk: Can you give us an idea what we see here? The first 2 vids in this thread. Thanks!

 

 

@Machor

I really missed that. This video has nothing to do with this war. This is 2016 or 2017 year, Donetsk oblast. Activists was blocking the shadow trade between Ukraine and LDPR,.which brought black cash income to influence politics and oligarchs. Naturally, authorities tried to remove this blockade. There were many conflicts with special police. 

Edited March 24, 2022 by Haiduk