How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

4 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm sure they are effective against many targets, but so are MANPADs etc. when it comes to low-flying attack aircraft or cruise missiles... these seem to be a bit overkill for those?

Unsuppressed S-300 forces all tactical aviation down into MANPADS envelope.

[Sgt Joch]

6 minutes ago, keas66 said:

You are starting to sound like someone who would prefer that to be the way things went ?

I would love to have the whole world be a paradise with no war, death, poverty, hunger, crime and everyone is kind to his fellow human and dog, but that is not the planet we live on, is it Sunshine? 

Edited March 16, 2022 by Sgt Joch

[Lethaface]

12 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm sure they are effective against many targets, but so are MANPADs etc. when it comes to low-flying attack aircraft or cruise missiles... these seem to be a bit overkill for those?

MANPADs are generally not seen to be effective against missiles, and also much less effective against planes. Limited range and height compared to medium/heavy AA systems. 
If you want to effectively defend/control your airspace, you'll need more than only MANPADs. 
 

Edited March 16, 2022 by Lethaface

[Ts4EVER]

So I guess the goal is to have the Ukranians make their own no-fly-zone...

[Haiduk]

Odesa reported - strong wind and storm. No landing possible, Russians withdrew from horizon.

[keas66]

Deleted .

Edited March 16, 2022 by keas66

[Sequoia]

Take it outside guys.

[Kinophile]

All right, ease off...

Pretty much everyone on this thread is pro UKR. Voicing options about how to end the war does not make Joch a Kremlin sock puppet. This is a friendly forum, there's no need to snap anyone's head off.

And Thats easy to say, as one living in a nice safe untouched western country, but still - pro UKR forum...

Getting mad here won't change a thing over there.

 

[keas66]

Apologies -  please feel free to delete my last post .

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, kraze said:

Nobody cares what Russia wants.

Just like nobody wants to have another goddamn war with those pieces of **** in another 5 years.

And any agreement with russians means war again, again and again until Ukraine is no more and we get another 100 years of slavery.

So if it gets to coup (and I seriously hope it won't) in order for our nation to survive - then I'll be there on Bankova street supporting it.

Your military is kicking their a55.  Agreeing to a ceasefire, and Russian withdrawal and all Russia gets is you don't join NATO is a humiliating defeat for them.  Putin can spin it however he wants but Russia won't be invading anyone for a while.  If anything Russia may have difficulty maintaining its current borders.  Russia is done, period.  No one is looking at them as a heavy weight anymore, especially their partner China.

Suppose they do negotiate a ceasefire and withdrawal.  Then May Day rolls around.  Ukraine will have already held its victory parade and have begun rebuilding.  Meanwhile Moscow has a May Day parade with their armored vehicles towed by tractors borrowed from Ukraine as they don't have the financial resources to restore their military.  No access to western technology or markets - Nationalizing western companies is a long term bad move for Russia that means likely at least a decade before western companies even consider investing again regardless of sanctions.

The cost of this war for Russia is going to be years calculating.  I think your experience so far is leaving you unprepared for the new reality.  The balance of power has shifted.  If Russia can't totally defeat Ukraine (and it clearly can't) then Russia has no ability to threaten Ukraine anymore.  Russia has been reduced to a meme.

Don't sacrifice your future for fear of an enemy who is fading from the world stage.

 

[Sgt Joch]

27 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

Anyway only the Ukrainians can decide whether 'it' is worth it for them or what's best for them. 

obviously.

[Lethaface]

18 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

I would love to have the whole world be a paradise with no war, death, poverty, hunger, crime and everyone is kind to his fellow human and dog, but that is not the planet we live on, is it Sunshine? 

I think the majority of people in the world would. 

I do however think that 'being reasonable' is naïve when dealing with unreasonable people. Bullies won't stop bullying if you ask them nicely. I'm not in favor of escalating the war to WW3, but I think the pressure needs to be held up on all fronts on maximum voltage so as to exact tangible pressure towards a behavioral change. 

Anyway we're not fighting the war so I'm in favor of letting those that do decide for themselves.
 

[db_zero]

Regardless of who "win" and who "loses" both sides are going to end up losing in one way or another. Ukraine is devastated and faces years of rebuilding. Even if the population that fled returns it looks like the infrastructure and housing for them is a mess. I wouldn't want to venture to guess what the future economic outlook will be.

Russia is going to face continued economic sanctions. Under what conditions they are lifted remains to be seen, but I don't see them being eased anytime soon. Perhaps more important is the "brain drain" in Russia as many people are fleeing Russia if they can. Russia may try to stop this.

Then there is the question of Putin. Does he say or does he go, ether way it going to be hugely disruptive.

India has already indicated a willingness to buy Russian resources at a big discount, but getting the resources to India is going to be a problem and could take months or years to build the infrastructure necessary. Same holds true for China. 

Both may end up buying stakes in Russian companies.

All this taking place in a time when inflation is rising, energy prices high, interest rates set to go higher and odds of recession elevated for the west.

 

[ASL Veteran]

I think that if the Ukrainian military fully mobilizes and if Putin continues to refuse to call up Russian reserves, that the Ukrainian army would eventually outnumber the Russian army by a significant margin.  Is that accurate Haiduk?

[Bulletpoint]

@Haiduk As a Ukrainian, what kind of peace settlement would you find acceptable if you were the one to decide at the negotiating table?

[Sgt Joch]

1 minute ago, Lethaface said:

I think the majority of people in the world would. 

you do know I was joking, right?

don't tell me you thought that post was serious???

1 minute ago, Lethaface said:

Anyway we're not fighting the war so I'm in favor of letting those that do decide for themselves.
 

obviously, as I have said many times before, this is purely the Ukrainians decision, if they want to fight to the last man, woman and child, it is up to them.

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

you do know I was joking, right?

Clearly it was and it showed your utter hatred of cats.  You didn't even include them.  Sheesh.

 

Back of the economic front....  a view of just one example of how Putin's actions will reverberate on the Russia economy for years to come.

‘You’re seeing the rule of law basically torched’: Russia nationalizes its civil aircraft fleet (msn.com)

Edited March 16, 2022 by sburke

[Vet 0369]

5 hours ago, Baneman said:

Isn't there at least one Moscow in the States ?
That could make for some tense double-checking of your targeting co-ordinates !

I believe there’s even one in Steve’s backyard.

[sross112]

Tried looking back through the thread for maps that I know are in there somewhere but gave up. Could someone point me to a good map with Russian BTG/unit locations?

If the Ukrainians control the Kherson Airport as the video shows I'm assuming the forces that went up the M14 highway to the northwest are now cut off. I'm trying to figure out what all is up there for combat power. Hopefully be a nice little pocket of bad guys and I think the best (?) Russian units are supposed to be operating in that southern area.

Thanks in advance for the help.

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Tried looking back through the thread for maps that I know are in there somewhere but gave up. Could someone point me to a good map with Russian BTG/unit locations?

If the Ukrainians control the Kherson Airport

I think they only shelled it, they don't control it.  When we hit the point that Ukraine re asserts control over Kherson it is pretty much game over for Russia.

[Panserjeger]

Here is an depressing article from the Barents Observer (covering the Arctic Region) showing the ridiculous propaganda going on in Russia at the moment.. And these guys are talking about denazification?

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/03/wave-warmongering-gushing-over-russian-youth

The 61st Naval Infantry Brigade and the 200th Motorized Infantry Brigade are stationed just across the border from Norway. They have both been severely mauled in Ukraine, hopefully these people will open their eyes when the pitiful remains return to base.

As a conscript I was a part of the Porsanger Battalion tasked with slowing down the Soviet advance until the US Marines were deployed to Norway. Maybe we would have stood a chance after all

[The_Capt]

Well I guess we are coming to the "what happens next" discussions - which is a very good sign, as it likely means this thing is coming to a close; however, like every step of this thing...accept that we will probably be wrong, until we either are or are not.  

Ukraine

So let's assume this thing ends tomorrow.  What it gains or loses is not as important in the short term.  In the short term Ukraine will need to deal with a pretty significant risk of humanitarian crisis.  The good news is that this happened in the Spring and not the Fall, but you have millions of IDPs and refugees and highly damaged internal infrastructure.  Ensuring basic food, health and habitation security, is going to be a challenge.  Western aid will no doubt pour in but the Ukrainian government will have about 8 months to get basis services up and running enough that people can come home and re-start their lives. This will be the challenge of the next year through next winter.

In the mid-to-long term, Ukraine will have to undertake a pretty significant reconstruction effort to  1) recover/clean up all the remnants of war that are littered around their country right now, from landmines to UXOs. 2) re-build damaged infrastructure/economy back to pre-war levels, and then 3) move past that toward something more resilient in the event they are attacked again.  All this will all take time and a lot of money.  As a minimum the Ukrainian government will need to get the economy back on track looking at long term sustainment of whatever strategy they chose.

On military power in the long term, Ukraine does not need NATO to become secure - it is not an essential pre-condition.  Beyond various bi-lateral arrangements, the Ukrainians could go the way of Switzerland or Israel, who can manage on their own quite well.  They do not even need massive numbers, they played to qualitative strengths and will likely double down on that.  They will need a lot of support and funding but I think that will be a tap that is turned on for awhile yet.  They only need to keep the doubt of "A Second Ukrainian Disaster" in the minds of the Russian government, which should not be too hard for the next decade.  They will have to fend off numerous subversive and political warfare attacks, Puntin will likely try to go back to his A game so we can expect Cold War levels of this backfield stuff, along with all sorts of proxy actions, of which Ukraine will get caught up in.

I can see Ukraine being pulled into the EU or other Euro-centric mechanisms but it will always have to do so carefully.  As to re-normalization with Russia, not this generation, likely two or three before that happens, if ever.  Ukraine is likely to be westward facing for years to come.

Russia

Big unknown.  The Russian people have repeatedly demonstrated that it takes a lot to get them moving, revolution-wise.  I think if Russia can get out "clean" the current power structure will hold in the short term.  Players behind the throne are likely already planning for Putin's exit, when or how that will happen is anyone's guess.  What the next version of a Russian regime look like is also anyone's guess; however, we do know it will likely be a kleptocracy, xenophobic particularly to the west, and autocratic (with a veneer of democracy).  

I do not see full renormalization with Russia and the West for a long time, although we will likely keep buying their gas.  Russia broke the deal and as such will remain in isolation from a western perspective.  Further, any grey zone, political, subversive actions against the west are not going to met with the "hey they just tampered with our democratic processes...whacha goign to do?" shoulder shrugging.  Russia has shown itself to be a clear and present danger to global stability so we are very likely to see that isolation continue.  

In the longer term this will likely push Russia deeper into China's power sphere, as the world become more and more bi-polar.  Much like the relationship between the UK and the US, Russia will still cling onto the pomp and ceremony of an empire but China will own them.  This sets us all up for the real power struggle this century as the world decides who hold the pen in writing the global order...as the planet continues to heat up.  Some are calling it Cold War 2.0, others a gunfight in a phone booth, no idea but we need to be ready for both.

The West

NATO just got the boost it needed for the next 30 years.  Some will point out "Russia sucks" but the seal is already broken and collective defence will be on the menu as western public will likely demand it.  Whether or not the internal divisions that have plagued the western world are impacted by this remains to be seen.  Oddly it would have been "better" for western unity if Russia had succeeded.  Now with this, whatever-this-is, we might see some of the old divides resurface...which is dumb...because China.  The West (and here I mean largely western Europe and its scions in NA) has been ruling the planet really since the 19th century (giver or take) and the question of "is time up?" is forefront in almost every national strategic calculus. 

This thing in Ukraine is a western power bloc failure, it never should have happened, but it did.  We are going to be hand-wringing over this for years.  To say this has been a disruption, particularly coming on the heels of the largest pandemic in a century is an understatement.   I am not sure what that disruption means but there are a lot of potential outcomes and not a few of them are scary - "you better start believing in human singularities Mrs Robinson, cause you are in one".

Edited March 16, 2022 by The_Capt

[akd]

8 minutes ago, sross112 said:

If the Ukrainians control the Kherson Airport as the video shows

If you are referring to the the video I posted, that was taken by Rus mil in civilian car.  Don’t ask me why they are uploading BDA to the web.

[Panserjeger]

9 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Tried looking back through the thread for maps that I know are in there somewhere but gave up. Could someone point me to a good map with Russian BTG/unit locations?

If the Ukrainians control the Kherson Airport as the video shows I'm assuming the forces that went up the M14 highway to the northwest are now cut off. I'm trying to figure out what all is up there for combat power. Hopefully be a nice little pocket of bad guys and I think the best (?) Russian units are supposed to be operating in that southern area.

Thanks in advance for the help.

This one is the most detailed I have seen, no post for today as of now. Further down the thread there are maps for the different AOs:

 

[Ultradave]

1 hour ago, Panserjeger said:

Zelensky has already signalled that he is willing to stop talking about NATO membership, so that is probably something he is willing to put on the table. "Limits on it's military forces" could be anything, maybe promising to not acquire nukes? Or not expanding the army more than it already is? 

WHERE would they "acquire nukes" from? They don't have the capability to create them. They have no mechanism to create the needed material for a warhead.

Dave