How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[womble]

1 minute ago, Cobetco said:

that seems fishy. to design, produce and ship something like that would take probably longer than the conflict has been going on. unless its a mockup. I haven't made a patch before though (only stickers) so maybe its faster? feels fishy.

 

People have custom patches made in handfuls, for paintball, airsofts and LARPs and any number of other trivial (compared to actually going to war) group activities. My wife's domestic embroidery machine could turn out a thousand patches in a weekend, if assiduously tended. Finishing the patches would take the most hours. Commercial grade embroidery machines would be faster and need less finishing. Doesn't seem too unlikely to me.

[Kraft]

There was a discussion here some time ago about anti war conscripts, notice the useless comradery Z on all vehicles in Syria.

That is not what you paint to show you are against slaughtering your neighbours.

[riptides]

40 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Any ideas about why Russia would spend so many cruise missiles to attack that training base close to Lviv? They caused casualties, but also spent around 30 missiles.. that's a lot for what exactly? Some barracks blown up?

They were sending a message.

[Vacillator]

1 minute ago, riptides said:

They were sending a message.

Agreed, it was said that weapons coming in were a valid target, and I suppose it's difficult to disagree for once.

[Bulletpoint]

Just now, Vacillator said:

Agreed, it was said that weapons coming in were a valid target, and I suppose it's difficult to disagree for once.

I don't even think the volunteers themselves would disagree.

[BlackMoria]

Nothing fishy.  It was reported by various Canadian news and media.  Outside Ukraine and Russia, the largest population of Ukrainians is in Canada.  

And doing up a patch like that can be done in a day or two.  Nothing hard about it.  

Also, the Canadian sniper with the world record sniper shot is over there with that brigade.  He got out of the military a number of year back and signed up for the International Legion.  According to the guy over there I was talking to, 'Wali' already has a impressive number of kills.  Apparently, he is averaging about 40 confirmed a day.  Of course, that might be some fanciful propaganda as well.  

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, Bulletpoint said:

Still 30 spent. Surely those missiles would be better used against Ukraine's air defense system? (looking at it from a Russian point of view of course. I'm only happy if they waste their missiles)

I could be wrong with what I have seen from the strike near Lvov, but my impression is that those russian rockets are not that precise to put it mildly. So that would exclude that weapon system for me for useage against air defense systems. I get more and more the impression, (confirmation bias?), to look at those rockets as slightly improved V2s timetravelling from 1945.

[John Kettler]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'm pretty sure 30mm AP can penetrate the side lower hull.  Even if it can't, 30mm of any type could seriously damage the running gear.  Breaking or weakening track linkage, damaging wheels, etc. can be a pretty effective way to counter superior armor.  At the very least raking it with 30mm fire would strip off ERA and likely rattle the crew quite a bit.  Meaning, no matter what it had some positive effect even if only temporary.

Steve

Unless something has changed drastically over the years, Russian tanks do not have lower side hulls made of armor steel. It's just standard steel. This was absolutely true for the T-55 and T-62, and I believe true for the T-72. Not sure after that. Believe this design choice is based on both cost and expected hit location based on combat findings and OR. In Afghanistan, the muj discovered they could kill the driver of a BTR-60 via AK-47 fire into the foremost left side wheel well, ultimately resulting in the installation of a field expedient protective plate. While I don't have the 2A-42 penetration figures handy, I have every confidence that it could demolish a tank by firing into the lower side hull.

Found it interesting that the Azov BTR-4 engagement was conducted on the move throughout and that display res was far better than even what I saw on a T-14 conducting a shoot with its thermals.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited March 14, 2022 by John Kettler

[womble]

41 minutes ago, Probus said:

TU-95 doesn't fly high enough to get out of the range of Stingers and Starstreaks, as I understand it.  Prolly the higher it flies, the less of a bombload it can carry.  Plus Russian arty should be able to rain down that kind of destruction, if they haven't run out of rockets in Syria.

TU-95 has a ceiling over 13000m. Starstreak gets half as high and Stinger half as high as Starstreak. It's the S-300s that the Ukrainians still have operational that will do for high altitude bombing runs.

Sure arty can do it, and more efficiently. If you can get the shells forward to the artillery, and if you have the fuel available for their SP chassis or prime movers to displace after that first volley to avoid UKR counterbattery fire. Planes have the advantage of being able to depart from untouchable bases potentially just full of stockpiles of bombs and fuel. And they aren't.

Did the Russians just mothball all their standard Bears, and lean on the cruise missile launch platform specialist airframes they converted? Or is it simply that the environment doesn't permit mass bombing raids? And why can't the Russians make the environment permit, at least outside MANPAD territory?

[Thomm]

5 minutes ago, BlackMoria said:

Also, the Canadian sniper with the world record sniper shot is over there with that brigade.  He got out of the military a number of year back and signed up for the International Legion.  According to the guy over there I was talking to, 'Wali' already has a impressive number of kills.  Apparently, he is averaging about 40 confirmed a day.  Of course, that might be some fanciful propaganda as well.  

I don't know. Doesn't this just make him a ... serial killer?

I find the fact that people travel to other countris to kill somewhat disturbing.

Best regards,
Thomm

[Battlefront.com]

29 minutes ago, womble said:

So, we know that they didn't put in the hard yards of AD reduction in the beginning, cos they "didn't think they'd need it" in the fantasy land they planned the operation in. So why haven't they been busy doing those "necessary chores" in parallel with their ground operations in the following 3 weeks? Is it because that sort of reduction requires a "surprise start" that they failed at? Or do they just lack the capability to do it? Or would it just cost them too many irreplaceable air assets?

Taking out air defenses is not easy work.  It requires multiple types of capabilities being used concurrently AND sustained over as much time as it takes to get suppression.  There's some good articles written by experts that state that Russia has a) no practical experience with such operations and b) is not trained for it.  There is also speculation that they lack sufficient radar seeking munitions to get the job done.

19 minutes ago, Cobetco said:

that seems fishy. to design, produce and ship something like that would take probably longer than the conflict has been going on. unless its a mockup. I haven't made a patch before though (only stickers) so maybe its faster? feels fishy.

There are places out there that will do custom patches in quantity with only a few days turn around time.  This stuff is all automated now.  Just scan in the design, tweak a few things, and hit PRINT.  It's equivalent of 3D printing or CNC mill.

Steve

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, riptides said:

They were sending a message.

Putin: "send a message to the west!"

Sycophant: "yes sir!

Putin: "did they get it?"

Sycophant: "yes sir!"

Putin: "so what did they say?"

Sycophant: ".....that you are desperate"

 

Former National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, U.S. response (yahoo.com)

[John Kettler]

6 hours ago, akd said:

That is TV, not thermal.

akd,

Wasn't looking at it full screen, but what I was, at least in the distance shots, were white targets against a dark background, exactly what I would see, and have seen, on thermal imagery where the system was in White Hot mode.

Regards,

John Kettler

[sburke]

and now we have Patch grogs...  I love this place 

[LongLeftFlank]

 

Good footage, though not good news.

Shoot and scoot.  

I find it hard to believe that after nearly 3 weeks of high intensity mechanized warfare on multiple axes, Russian KIAs are less than 8000 men.  Especially as I doubt their medevac is functioning much better than the rest of their logistics effort.

 

Edited March 14, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[DesertFox]

Just now, John Kettler said:

akd,

Wasn't looking at it full screen, but what I was, at least in the distance shots, were white targets against a dark background, exactly what I would see, and have seen, on thermal imagery where the system was in White Hot mode.

Regards,

John Kettler

John,

yes, but if you look closely in the first 10 sec, you can see the T-72 turret. If it were TI it would have been glowing brightly.

[BlackMoria]

'Wali' is not a PMC nor a mercenary.  He left his computer programming job, a wife and a son about to turn one to go over to help the Ukrainian people.  He is a person with a conscience and the need to do something.  I get that because I wanted to volunteer myself but my age and my health are against that.  

Please don't infer that he and people like him are 'serial killers'   

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, John Kettler said:

akd,

Wasn't looking at it full screen, but what I was, at least in the distance shots, were white targets against a dark background, exactly what I would see, and have seen, on thermal imagery where the system was in White Hot mode.

BTR-4 hasn't thermal sight, just NV. This is TV-based FCS, which specially has sharp contrast picture. Though many BTR-4 turret operators scold the quality of image and unstable picture with many interferences, appearing during intensive firing. 

[db_zero]

19 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Still 30 spent. Surely those missiles would be better used against Ukraine's air defense system? (looking at it from a Russian point of view of course. I'm only happy if they waste their missiles)

Unlike the west/USA Russia doesn’t have dedicated Wild Weasel squadrons or train pilots for the SEAD missions. That has lead many to conclude why the Ukraine ADA network was not eliminated.

There also seems to be a shortage of targeting pods.

Given the striking incompetence shown by the Russian military, there ability to collect and disseminate targeting data and do accurate BDA might be lacking too.

[DesertFox]

Just now, BlackMoria said:

'Wali' is not a PMC nor a mercenary.  He left his computer programming job, a wife and a son about to turn one to go over to help the Ukrainian people.  He is a person with a conscience and the need to do something.  I get that because I wanted to volunteer myself but my age and my health are against that.  

Please don't infer that he and people like him are 'serial killers'   

He has that shepherd syndrome in a positive sense. He wants to protect people against evil, which is a good thing.

[Battlefront.com]

43 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

Imo the best way to try to resist the 'confirmation bias' as well as enemy 'mirror imaging' is to try and give the Russians some logical credibility (IE, why would a commander do that. Because they probably arnt actively trying to sabotage the campaign. Why would they when passive measures have already worked so well.)

There is also applying decades of experience with how Russia works in terms of their military technology, training, etc.  So to someone who is informed, the tires falling off when hitting a patch of mud isn't unexpected based on what is known about traditionally low levels of readiness amongst Russian forces.  Now, if we only saw one picture of abandoned vehicles with bad tires we wouldn't be able to make strong statements.  But seeing them over and over again?  We should be able to connect some dots without a Russian source telling us their tires are crap.

43 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

 I'm hearing ~6-7% casualties for the total attacking force so far, assuming even our estimates are correct? (Hint, probably not) Ukraine probably has to double or even triple that before the Russians start to become operationally combat ineffective. Inflicting major losses on even a single BTG isn't as significant because another fresh one can always take its place. And of course we dont know how many losses Ukraine is taking really either.

Skip back a bunch of pages and check out the numbers I produced based on pretty straight forward analysis of fairly reasonably accurate information.  Then extrapolate that to which forces likely took the most hit and that tells you something more.  It's one thing for a 3rd rate conscript heavy force taking a couple hundred casualties, it is another for a VDV unit.  Tells you a lot about what's going on at the front.

43 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

My own reading of history has given me an impression that in modern war the defender typically takes 1:1 or slightly shy casualties as the attacker.

That's not necessarily true.  It really does depend on the situation.  And from what we can tell that definitely isn't happening with this war.  All available information indicates that Russia is taking excessive losses compared to the Ukrainians.  And it is exactly what I'd expect to see.

Confirmation bias is a tricky thing for sure.  However, if I posit a theory that being hit with a hammer is painful, then I see one person hit the other one with said hammer and the one hit screams out, I don't think I need to interview him before concluding that my theory was accurate.,

Steve

[Haiduk]

Four or even five Russian tanks bogged dead and abandoned

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

He has that shepherd syndrome in a positive sense. He wants to protect people against evil, which is a good thing.

It's one of the reasons people volunteer for military service in the first place.  Or to be a cop or a fireman or anybody else that is responsible for helping people in adverse conditions.  Sure, there's some people that do this for all the wrong reasons, but overall I'd say that's not the case.

Steve

[Bulletpoint]

1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

Four or even five Russian tanks bogged dead and abandoned

I'm reminded of WW2 stories about how whole units of Soviet tanks would be reported "lost in swamps".

Some people think that was just some kind of bad excuse given when someone ran into an ambush and didn't want to admit that to higher-ups, but I'm starting to think that it was in fact exactly what happened.

[akd]

If only there had been an MTU-72 on hand…