How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

Captured VDV vehicles with some super aggressive re-flagging:

Edited March 8, 2022 by akd

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

We flushed them out in general (hence russians completely failing to grasp the picture here), so you can do too.

And Ukraine is considerably more corrupt than any EU country

The great cleanup has started already by examening the finances of some small right wing parties, that even now defend Putin. I expect that will just be the beginning though. 

[Haiduk]

Todays morning Russian column (or its part - 6 T-72B + 2 BMP-2), advancing on Brovary, east from Kyiv. Location unknown. There is no info what happened further. A hour ago there was information about Russian infantry platoon in Bohdanivka village in 12 km NE from Brovary, which sits in the village and shots in any civilian, which comes to the street

 

[womble]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Ok, so there has been a lot of finger pointing at the US on what it, should have done, should do or not do etc.  I think it is time to point that finger back at Europe on this point.  Who thought it was a good idea to become energy dependent on a nation that has been causing ruckus since 2008, did a soft invasion of another European nation in 2014, has been pulling stunts in the backfield ever since then and now has demonstrated just how unstable it is?

This is worse than US dependence on Arab oil, which they have worked very hard to get rid of, as Arabs can be jerks and support terrorism but they are not likely to invade with 100k plus troops.

Can someone explain this one to me?  Because the Euros that paid for that gas found their way to funding this fiasco and no one seems to be saying to much about it.

I'd give your post an upvote, but that would be too feeble a signal of agreement. I can't answer the questions you have definitively, from this side of the tunnel, but as far as I can see over the past 20 years, it's been nose-in-the-air obliviouisness. An exercise of hope over expectation which has, as it was always likely to, come back to bite Europe (and especially Germany) in the bum. There were noises made after '14 that it would be a good idea to pull back from total reliance on Russian gas, but they kept on with Nordstream 2, and it doesn't seem they've done a very good job of preparing for alternate supplies (degasifying plants for shipborne LNPG have been mentioned). There was probably some appeasement-minded "don't rock the boat" sentiment, and the pious hope that keeping Vlad plugged into the Western capitalist system via a gas umbilical cord would drag Russia out of its xenophobia and into the 21st Century. Noble aspirations, grounded in hopeless optimism and unwillingness to take hard decisions.

I think the reason no one's saying anything about it is sheer embarrassment. Personally, I hope they have the gumption to "take the pain" that going cold turkey on Russian gas would inflict; that would be some sort of penance for Geopolitical naivete. The weather will be getting warmer now, so the impact of increased gas prices will be somewhat mitigated. I expect this is a factor in the calculations of the Powers That Be. But leaving the heating off seems like a small price to pay for not having to send the Bundeswehr to help Ukraine's heroes (the Governments should be ensuring that the vulnerable don't have to bear the cost).

Because every cubic metre of gas that they (the UK dock workers have decided that we won't be using any Russian NPG, even if it's not an official position...) pay for extends the war in Ukraine by that much longer.

And since I typed that, and the Internet swallowed it, only to regurgitate it later:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-60666251

Looks like the screws are tightening and the EU recognises that some pain is necessary. Which is a relief. It's not a total ban, but it's another click of the ratchet. Or several clicks.

And it's the ratchet of sanctions that's going to get Ukraine's land back, I reckon.

[Suchy]

Unfortunately, the Pentagon is making a statement on planes

DOD has released this in response to Poland's announcement that it would send MiG-29s to Ramstein: “We’ve seen the Polish government’s announcement. We have nothing to offer at this time," a senior defense official says
 

 

[DesertFox]

 

 

 

Edited March 8, 2022 by DesertFox

[theFrizz]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

I was wrong to assume that you, like probably 95% of the U.S. population don’t know the history of the region. 

I think you're still painting with too big of a brush.

Edited March 8, 2022 by theFrizz

[Haiduk]

6 minutes ago, akd said:

Captured VDV vehicles with some super aggressive re-flagging:

BTR-D carries marking "3" in turned triangle - 331st VDV regiment (dislocated in Kostroma) of 98th VDV division, Ryazan'

These vehicles would be useful for our 25th airborne brigade, but... I think, guys from 59th motorized infantry brigade can master it.

[The Steppenwulf]

4 minutes ago, db_zero said:

How is the west prepared for a use of chemical or sleeping agent by Russia? What sort of response would take place? Especially in light of Putins nuclear threat?

My understanding is that western intelligence has informed that the Russian military have not supplied and have made no preparations to use chemical agents. Nothing is fixed in stone of course, but there will already be a planned Nato response plan in the event that the intelligence picture changes.   

[womble]

8 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian column (or its part - 6 T-72B + 2 BMP-2)

6 tanks to 2 APCs... is that a standard ratio? Seems a bit light on infantry presence if they ran into opposition... But that does seem to be a theme.

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, womble said:

6 tanks to 2 APCs... is that a standard ratio? Seems a bit light on infantry presence if they ran into opposition... But that does seem to be a theme.

Logically 2 tank platoons + 1 motor-rifle platoon, but maybe the video stopped before the third BMP appaeraed. Their order was 2 tanks - BMP - 2 tanks - BMP - 2 tanks - .... (?). Looks like should be the third at the end. But maybe it was previously lost or broken. 

Edited March 8, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

Some clearer pics of that armored train. It’s just as 1940s as you might have thought:

 

[DesertFox]

3 minutes ago, womble said:

6 tanks to 2 APCs... is that a standard ratio? Seems a bit light on infantry presence if they ran into opposition... But that does seem to be a theme.

Back in the late 80s we (Leo2A4 Coy) very often mixed with Grenadiers. We got one Marder platoon and gave them one Leo platoon. So I guess we see something similar here with the russians. 2 tank platoons supplemented with one Mech Plt. minus the noonrunners/losses. 

[Commanderski]

34 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

I guess this is a new one, previously unseen, for ebay?

That was captured by the elite 1st Ukrainian Tractor Brigade.

[Commanderski]

Double post

Edited March 8, 2022 by Commanderski

[db_zero]

17 minutes ago, The Steppenwulf said:

My understanding is that western intelligence has informed that the Russian military have not supplied and have made no preparations to use chemical agents. Nothing is fixed in stone of course, but there will already be a planned Nato response plan in the event that the intelligence picture changes.   

Let’s hope it stays that way, but it’s still a good idea to be prepared and get measures in place before you actually need it and are forced to do things at the spur of the moment.

[Sgt Joch]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Not really what I am talking about.  More about the global order and how it is failing while we are to busy either arguing with each other or chasing some nonsensical visions of the future.  Humanity is a harsh place and if you want to stay on top you have to earn it.  We in the west forgot that somewhere along the way.

well the average citizen has very little interest in the outside world.

The global order as set up in 1945 works on the whole. Yes, you have bad actors, Putin is just the latest one, but the UN and the global community usually finds a way of containing them and eventually dealing with them.

Every new generation thinks they are re-discovering fire for the 1st time.

I finally got around to reading McCullough's biography of Harry S. Truman. He was President in peacetime, but if you look at the crises he had to deal with: Greek civil war, European collapse, Berlin airlift, Communist coups in Eastern Europe, Russia getting the Atomic Bomb, Chinese civil war, China going communist, Korean War, etc. the world was a more dangerous place back then, but we managed to get to today without blowing up the world.

[The Steppenwulf]

15 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

So I guess we see something similar here with the russians. 2 tank platoons supplemented with one Mech Plt. minus the noonrunners/losses. 

Battalion Tactical Groups have a (flexible) combined arms structure - go open your BS scenario editor! 

 

Edited March 8, 2022 by The Steppenwulf

[danfrodo]

Some posts earlier questioning the efficacy of the soon to be shipped Ukrainian MIGs relative to russian AD.  The vast majority of Ukraine is not under russian AD.  Ukrainians supplies & forces & civilians move through that country and are vulnerable to air attack.  So the MIGs could help a lot by contesting Ukrainian airspace.  Only in a ground support role or over the battle areas would they start to engage w Russian AD.  Hopefully they will plant lots of 100% russian pilot-based sunflowers!

[Haiduk]

Next Russian high-ranked officer was killed.

Colonel Yuryi Agarkov, the commander of 33rd motor-rifle regiment (Kamyshyn, Volgograd oblast) of 20th Guard motor-rifle division. Before 33th regiment renewed in 2021, he had a duty of the chief of the staff of 56th separate air-assault brigade, dislocated in the same town. 

Edited March 8, 2022 by Haiduk

[Vic4]

1 hour ago, kraze said:

This answers the question if copium cages stop anything

I'm curious about this as well. Did they actually send out an army of novice welders with 2x2 tube steel without even testing one first?

[DesertFox]

Potemkin military. That would explain a thing or two...

 

Edited March 8, 2022 by DesertFox

[dan/california]

They were pretty obviously pure morale boosting BS. The ability of Javelin missiles to shatter Russian tanks is becoming a meme at this point. The Russians had to at least pretend to be doing something to get guys to drive the bleeping things in the general direction of the enemy. Where the BS didn't work, and they died, or abandoned them and ran like hell after they drove past a few examples

4 minutes ago, Vic4 said:

I'm curious about this as well. Did they actually send out an army of novice welders with 2x2 tube steel without even testing one first?

.

[Panserjeger]

3 minutes ago, Vic4 said:

I'm curious about this as well. Did they actually send out an army of novice welders with 2x2 tube steel without even testing one first?

I´m sure the improved version will give 100% protection:

[LongLeftFlank]

The general sighed / as the lines on the map / moved from side to side

 

[Edit: I misread the first map]

Edited March 8, 2022 by LongLeftFlank