How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Vet 0369]

33 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I believe this would be an allusion to the rumors that Putler will declare martial law?

LOL, possibly, I don’t know the band, and couldn’t understand a word they were saying!

[BletchleyGeek]

2 hours ago, Lethaface said:

Well, I guess it makes sense keeping a strong force in reserve in the country, preferably the most loyal part. Might explain where the T-90s etc are.

Hmmm, like waiting for the two armoured divisions chockers with Abrams and Leopards that obviously NATO has already deployed to the Baltics while nobody was looking? Nah, I reckon those numbers were expressing a goal rather than a fact. 

 

[Vet 0369]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

why does putin need to take ukraine to stay in charge?  I'm not following that.  The biggest risk to his power he could possibly take was trying to take Ukraine.

Look at his history. Every time he started feeling his grip was being weakened by economic or social conditions, he has slapped a neighbor to increase his public standing. I know that coincidence doesn’t equal causation, but it’s a mighty solid trail.

[sburke]

9 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

why does putin need to take ukraine to stay in charge?  I'm not following that.  The biggest risk to his power he could possibly take was trying to take Ukraine.

I wouldn't spend too much time on logic here.  It is Putin's perspective and maybe to him it made sense..at one point.  Now it is like the tar baby in Brer rabbit.  He can't let go.

[Baneman]

I think it comes under his operating principle to bolster his power whenever there's some domestic problem by fomenting and then winning a "military police action" or somesuch. A "Quick Victorious War".

His problem is that the war has not co-operated on the "Quick Victorious" part.

[The_Capt]

57 minutes ago, sburke said:

I wouldn't be surprised to hear they'd gotten some via Iraq. Whether they can actually produce them is another thing.

Seen this raised a couple times.  I find it hard to believe the US did not consider this in the design and production of the Javelin.  Beyond the hardware there is likely software/firmware that is encrypted or set up to be really hard to crack.  I think the US expects the system to be hacked eventually but not easily nor can it be easily manufactured (probably why it is crazy expensive system).

[LongLeftFlank]

For anybody wanting a succinct crash course on everything from the roots of the current war back to Putin's rise to power back to the Khanate of the Golden Horde, Kamil Galeev has done some superb work here, very readable:

Relevant sample:

A lot has changed [since 2014]. First, Ukraine has had six drafts. Men were drafted and sent to Donbass. Then most demobilised and returned to civilian life. This Donbass contingent was around 60 thousand soldiers and constantly rotated. So now Ukraine has 400 000+ veterans of Donbass war 
Many of them were in combat. Thus Ukraine has huge number of veterans with combat experience. Probably more than Russia.

Yes, Russia has been fighting in Syria. It never published the size of its force but it's estimated to be 2-3 thousand. Most Russian soldiers have not seen war. Furthermore, combat they've seen is different.

Finally, Ukraine created a new type of troops - the troops of territorial defence, whose number is estimated in 60 000. It's a copy of the Polish troop type. These are civilians who get military training and can be mobilised in a day to fight only in their own town and region.

Equipment-wise this war took Ukrainian army half-resupplied. It developed many innovative weaponry of its own, but almost none of it was produced on large scale.

[Russian] troops pushed forward leaving many non-destroyed Ukrainian regulars and levy behind. In a proper Blitzkrieg, a second and third echelon would have come to finish Ukrainian defenders. But these additional echelons didn't exist. Which immediately created the supply and replenishment problem.... supply convoys are being attacked by the regulars and territorial defence troops left behind.

[db_zero]

1 hour ago, OldSarge said:

There are reports that the Russian shelling of the Zaporozhie Nuclear Reactor has set a fire there. CNN just reported it.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-03-22/index.html

Some are saying that nuke plants have improved safety features since Chernobyl so the danger is overblown.

I know nothing about this. Maybe someone on here who does can explain if above is true or not.

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, db_zero said:

Some are saying that nuke plants have improved safety features since Chernobyl so the danger is overblown.

I know nothing about this. Maybe someone on here who does can explain if above is true or not.

I think that really depends on the amount of damage inflicted.  I personally wouldn't want to test those standing right by a live plant. 

[Zveroboy1]

43 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

[Russian] troops pushed forward leaving many non-destroyed Ukrainian regulars and levy behind. In a proper Blitzkrieg, a second and third echelon would have come to finish Ukrainian defenders. But these additional echelons didn't exist. Which immediately created the supply and replenishment problem.... supply convoys are being attacked by the regulars and territorial defence troops left behind.

This analysis looks especially manifest in the east, along the Sumy and Konotop axis. Once they broke though, the Russians initially managed to make decent headways bypassing lots of urban areas in their push westward. But driving forward with such narrow spearheads exposed their rear areas and flanks. Then the isolated BTGs which might work for hybrid warfare run out of steam because they don't have enough staying power for this type of conventional war. The lack or absence of second echelon means the advance stalls within a week.

Meanwhile they appear to reinforce failure around Kyiv where they are getting wrecked and are just banging their head against a wall.

Edited March 4, 2022 by Zveroboy1

[c3k]

1 hour ago, Vet 0369 said:

I assume that the militaries and intelligence services of the USA, UK, and Sweden assessed those possibilities and decided that the Russians already had either actual Javs and NLAWs, or at least detailed plans and specs for them, especially since the UK and Sweden began developing the NLAW 20 years ago in 2002. It’s really difficult to keep something secret for that long.

The Chinese already have a Javelin copy.

[Probus]

1 hour ago, Cobetco said:

I recall reading they where shutting down all the nuclear plants for this exact reason, wither or not they actually did who can say.

It takes time to shutdown a reactor.  It has to cool off.  If you shell it and destroy its ability to cool itself you get a Fukushima, right?

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

why does putin need to take ukraine to stay in charge?  I'm not following that.  The biggest risk to his power he could possibly take was trying to take Ukraine.

Yeah. It makes no sense @danfrodo.  Maybe Russians think completely differently than Westerners but this is nothing but a Quagmire for Putin and Russia.  The Russian people are getting lied to and many are completely buying Putin's story.  They will be sorry once Putin can't cover up what's going on.

[chuckdyke]

2 minutes ago, c3k said:

The Chinese already have a Javelin copy.

If you can make a rocket which is able to land on the moon and come back a Javelin is a firecracker. 

 

[Armorgunner]

45 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

I assume that the militaries and intelligence services of the USA, UK, and Sweden assessed those possibilities and decided that the Russians already had either actual Javs and NLAWs, or at least detailed plans and specs for them, especially since the UK and Sweden began developing the NLAW 20 years ago in 2002. It’s really difficult to keep something secret for that long.

Very true, and I really hope so! But I´v been suprised every year for the last +35 years since BILL 1 Came out 1985 as the first top attack missile. That Soviet, and then Russia have not developed a top attack antitank (guided) missile  . NLAW is not (guided) But it has a computer. So as long as the target vehickle, is at the same speed. the upp to >5 sec it takes to reach 800m. You will be fine, the tank crew at 20-800 meters will not be. And its confined space, or CS (Not Counter Strike CS). 

 

NLAW is partly a replacement for AT-4. But the AT-4 is still living for many years to come. The agressive Russians made us to in panic, restart the TOW program a year ago (Dont know wich version). And made us panic order latest version of BILL-2 for immediate use.

 

Since we did not have a proper ATGM in use. Only NLAW, AT-4, and Carl Gustaf! From 2025 we will have the French MMP ATGM in a Swedish version. And thats always the problem with Sweden. We can never, ever buy over the shelf. Always some improvments, that take years to implement. And make it tripple the price, so we cant afford the numbers we need Thats why the French MMP comes in a "Swedish expensive version" But not untill 2025! 

 

We have a new PM now though. And she is not to play with. The last days she have ordred the massive expansion of the armed forces to be hurried (and funded). And not only the "armed" one. The total defence to. Wich means food, water, shelters, Medicines, everything for war!

 

I havent woted for that party since maybe 2002. But she is becoming my favorit, and in high speed!! She made in a few days Sweden, to make its first ever export of arms, to a country in real war. (5000 AT-4 ATRL) to Ukraine. Since 1939, when Sweden sent arms to Finland during the Winter war. And almost 10.000 Swedish volunteers participated there to. To fight the guckinf Russians. Its always the Russians, before it was Soviet. But that´s the same schitt!!!

[The_Capt]

I am waiting for this bad boy to show up

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spike_(missile)

 

[Armorgunner]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am waiting for this bad boy to show up

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spike_(missile)

 

from who?

[Armorgunner]

5 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

from who?

Obvious from the Ukrainians. But from who will it be supplied

Edited March 4, 2022 by Armorgunner

[Armorgunner]

If the turret is upsidedown, or 5, to in extreme cases like 50 or more meters away from their mammy. Its quite hard to detemine what killed it? Right?

[BeondTheGrave]

1 hour ago, Probus said:

It takes time to shutdown a reactor.  It has to cool off.  If you shell it and destroy its ability to cool itself you get a Fukushima, right?

As I understand it, a reactor really cant be 'switched off' like a coal or gas plant. NPPs generate power based on artificially moderated reaction which boils the water and produce steam for turbines. During operation the cooling must always operate. Its easy to shut this reaction off by inserting the control rods and terminating this very hot state. This has the effect of cooling the reactor significantly. BUT a reactor cannot, over the period of a few days, fully cool off. Too many radioactive particles are created during normal power generations and the containment unit must be kept cool and, as I understand it, monitored for the buildup of the wrong kind of particles within the containment unit itself. It makes sense, after all you cant just 'switch off' uranium, and its the same with the soup that filters through the core. Additionally damage done to a shut down reactor can still cause the release of significant radioactive particles. Chernobyl was undergoing the shut down process, for example, when a number of errors caused the reactor to rapidly dramatically and, ultimately, explosively unshutdown (without any input from the operators a single Chernobyl reactor reached ~1tw/hr power generation for all of about 4 sec. For context the Hoover damn averages 4tw/hr. This level was...... unsustainable at ChNPP.)  edit: I'm dumb, they weren't trying to shut down the reactor. They were trying to keep it on during a transition to diesel generation. But for reasons unknown at the time to the control room, the power generation of the reactor crashed. This led to the wrong intervention which blew the top off the reactor. Look Im not a nuclear physicist. 

If you blow the lid off even a 'cold' reactor containment unit youre still talking about the release of more radioactive particles than either Three Mile Island or Fukushima, its already a Chernobyl level disaster. Of course the fire at the ChNPP didn't help things much either. Fire is always bad. 

Edited March 4, 2022 by BeondTheGrave

[The_Capt]

28 minutes ago, Armorgunner said:

Obvious from the Ukrainians. But from who will it be supplied

There are 37 countries that have it worldwide and a European distributor, likely a European nation or Ukraine could buy direct.  This thing is in another category of its own; ranges matching artillery, acquiring after firing and top down attack.  It is not quite a loitering munition but close.

Edited March 4, 2022 by The_Capt

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, BeondTheGrave said:

As I understand it, a reactor really cant be 'switched off' like a coal or gas plant. NPPs generate power based on artificially moderated reaction which boils the water and produce steam for turbines. During operation the cooling must always operate. Its easy to shut this reaction off by inserting the control rods and terminating this very hot state. This has the effect of cooling the reactor significantly. BUT a reactor cannot, over the period of a few days, fully cool off. Too many radioactive particles are created during normal power generations and the containment unit must be kept cool and, as I understand it, monitored for the buildup of the wrong kind of particles within the containment unit itself. It makes sense, after all you cant just 'switch off' uranium, and its the same with the soup that filters through the core. Additionally damage done to a shut down reactor can still cause the release of significant radioactive particles. Chernobyl was undergoing the shut down process, for example, when a number of errors caused the reactor to rapidly dramatically and, ultimately, explosively unshutdown (without any input from the operators a single Chernobyl reactor reached ~1tw/hr power generation for all of about 4 sec. For context the Hoover damn averages 4tw/hr. This level was...... unsustainable at ChNPP.)  

If you blow the lid off even a 'cold' reactor containment unit youre still talking about the release of more radioactive particles than either Three Mile Island or Fukushima, its already a Chernobyl level disaster. Of course the fire at the ChNPP didn't help things much either. Fire is always bad. 

This is exactly right as I understand it.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Seen this raised a couple times.  I find it hard to believe the US did not consider this in the design and production of the Javelin.  Beyond the hardware there is likely software/firmware that is encrypted or set up to be really hard to crack.  I think the US expects the system to be hacked eventually but not easily nor can it be easily manufactured (probably why it is crazy expensive system).

Armorgunner's response is better than the one I planned on making, so I'll just do a short comment that Russia and the Soviets before them have not shown a great deal of skill duplicating Western technology.  Even fairly simple stuff that has major civilian overlap like FLIR.  Way behind.

For the most part the Russians have taken whatever whiz-bang thing NATO comes up with, developed an inferior system to try and be comparable, then not spend the money to buy enough of them to really matter.  But they have something to show off at parades and to the various propaganda media outlets (last 15 years YouTube being a huge one). 

For the most part this strategy works for Russia because it has carefully chosen to have open conflict with technologically inferior opponents.  Why spend $1m on something when $100k will do just fine?  Plus, the reality is Russia knows that in a toe-to-toe conventional war with NATO it is going to get its clocked clean no matter what.  So why bother buying enough of those $100k systems to outfit a huge force you probably will never need anyway?  A half baked product that appears to Russians and 3rd world militaries to be "almost" as good as Western system is sufficient for their purposes.

Steve

[keas66]

There was a funny comment in the Media from the Director of Russia's commercial spaceflight company  saying something to the effect that without his rockets the Americans  could use  broomsticks  to get to orbit ....which seemed a little oblivious to "recent" developments by other companies in the US . Luckily for us Spacex and others  like them no longer  require Russian Rocket motors to get to space .

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/03/russia-nasa-rocket-engines-rogozin-ukraine/

 

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Armorgunner's response is better than the one I planned on making, so I'll just do a short comment that Russia and the Soviets before them have not shown a great deal of skill duplicating Western technology.  Even fairly simple stuff that has major civilian overlap like FLIR.  Way behind.

For the most part the Russians have taken whatever whiz-bang thing NATO comes up with, developed an inferior system to try and be comparable, then not spend the money to buy enough of them to really matter.  But they have something to show off at parades and to the various propaganda media outlets (last 15 years YouTube being a huge one). 

For the most part this strategy works for Russia because it has carefully chosen to have open conflict with technologically inferior opponents.  Why spend $1m on something when $100k will do just fine?  Plus, the reality is Russia knows that in a toe-to-toe conventional war with NATO it is going to get its clocked clean no matter what.  So why bother buying enough of those $100k systems to outfit a huge force you probably will never need anyway?  A half baked product that appears to Russians and 3rd world militaries to be "almost" as good as Western system is sufficient for their purposes.

Steve

Until they face someone we are supplying with top grade stuff, as fast as it can be shoved out of warehouses.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, keas66 said:

There was a funny comment in the Media from the Director of Russia's commercial spaceflight company  saying something to the effect that without his rockets the Americans  could use  broomsticks  to get to orbit ....which seemed a little oblivious to "recent" developments by other companies in the US . Luckily for us Spacex and others  like them no longer  require Russian Rocket motors to get to space .

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/03/03/russia-nasa-rocket-engines-rogozin-ukraine/

 

Elon has some screws that need their torque adjusted, at a minimum. SpaceEx though is a thing of beauty almost beyond compare.  That side by side landing is the kind of thing we OUGHT to be working on.