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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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12 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Someone will pay for this, that is for sure. De Hague is waiting.

 

 

I wish Putin would end up there, but I can't imagine it will ever happen. It's not like he doesn't have a lot on his conscience already (not that I think he has any conscience).

I remember reading that in the war in Syria, a list of hospitals was officially published, meant to be used to avoid hitting the hospitals by accident. The Russians used it as a target list.

Edited by Bulletpoint
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Sorry, I no longer manage to keep up with this thread. It was probably discussed over and over. I just don't get all the glee here. Or well, I get it, I'm routing for the Ukrainian Army and I hope they can hold until all the promised help arrives. But while I see that it seems like the Russian offensive doesn't work as planned - though, who knows what the plan really was? - and logistics appear chaotic and all... I keep looking at the map and for me it looks like the Russians are making quite some progress towards the Dnepr. Maybe that was the goal all along? Or at least Plan B? Occupy Eastern Ukraine with the Dnepr as a border? Once the Russians are there they will be very hard to dislodge. Politically it would be possible to sell this as something like a buffer zone for Donetsk/Luhansk and Crimea. Attacks on Kiev and from Kherson west/north would serve the purpose of binding Ukrainian reinforcements. Just a thought and maybe someone with more than just wargame experience can correct me if I'm wrong.

I also keep thinking about what Putin himself said back in 2014 or 2015. "If I really wanted to invade Ukraine I'd be in Kiev in 2 weeks." (not 48 hours, mind you - btw. where did that number estimate come from, does anyone know?)

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UKR BTR-4 burned in yesterday fighting in Kharkiv. Part of Russian recons after their fail took cover in the old tough yellow building of school and resisted untill UKR tank arrived,  shot at them and they surrendered.

Зображення

Edited by Haiduk
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10 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I wish Putin would end up there, but I can't imagine it will ever happen. It's not like he doesn't have a lot on his conscience already (not that I think he has any conscience).

I remember reading that in the war in Syria, a list of hospitals was officially published, meant to be used to avoid hitting the hospitals by accident. The Russians used it as a target list.

Russia is not a signatory to ICC, but Ukraine did so in 2015.  This allows the ICC to investigate but Russia will clearly not recognize it's authority.  How that plays out for the Oligarch's and Military commanders however is another question.  About the only place they may be able to vacation is China and India.  Those British properties and Mediterranean getaways may be a thing of the past.

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4 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Maybe that was the goal all along? Or at least Plan B? Occupy Eastern Ukraine with the Dnepr as a border? Once the Russians are there they will be very hard to dislodge.

I think the general consenus is that a potential "Eastern Ukraine" puppet state would be a bleeding ulcer in the southwestern flank of Russia, especially given the existence of a NATO-affiliated "rump" state of "Western Ukraine" ferrying modern small arms and infantry anti-tank/anti-air across the Dnepr most nights. And the sanctions wouldn't go away if that was the "end state" of the overt mass hostilities, either. Eventually, "New Afghanistan" just won't be worth the candle. The overall opinion of them as orter know seems to be that the Russians have the wherewithal to achieve a dominant military victory, eventually, but that the Ukrainians can bleed them white while they do, then keep bleeding them indefinitely.

I have a question too: this morning when I went to work, the "mother of all columns" was advancing on Kyiv. Any updates on how the bear's latest paw-into-the-honey-jar is faring? Have the widely-anticipated flanking attacks and drone strikes dislocated it and stalled its progress? Or did they get their AD plan right, guard their logistical assets properly and squelch all resistance?

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4 minutes ago, womble said:

I have a question too: this morning when I went to work, the "mother of all columns" was advancing on Kyiv. Any updates on how the bear's latest paw-into-the-honey-jar is faring? Have the widely-anticipated flanking attacks and drone strikes dislocated it and stalled its progress? Or did they get their AD plan right, guard their logistical assets properly and squelch all resistance?

The latest I read (BBC) was that the column is mostly composed of logistics trucks with a few armoured vehicles, so it's not the massive armoured force that was feared initially. But as always, it's difficult to know what's true and not.

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6 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

The latest I read (BBC) was that the column is mostly composed of logistics trucks with a few armoured vehicles, so it's not the massive armoured force that was feared initially. But as always, it's difficult to know what's true and not.

Oh! Resupply for the UA. How obliging of the Russkies! ;)

Would explain why the thunderbolt hasn't shattered the northern defenses of Kyiv then.

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4 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

The latest I read (BBC) was that the column is mostly composed of logistics trucks with a few armoured vehicles, so it's not the massive armoured force that was feared initially. But as always, it's difficult to know what's true and not.

This.
For a couple of days now the news headlines have been screaming fear about a "40km tank column" when the reality was always that it was a 40km column with some tanks. You'd think journalists would make at least some effort to grasp what they're talking about.

And the speed of their progress either says they're hyper cautious now ( and that won't help when they have to push against a defence ) or they still have massive logistical issues.

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8 minutes ago, Baneman said:

This.
For a couple of days now the news headlines have been screaming fear about a "40km tank column" when the reality was always that it was a 40km column with some tanks. You'd think journalists would make at least some effort to grasp what they're talking about.

And the speed of their progress either says they're hyper cautious now ( and that won't help when they have to push against a defence ) or they still have massive logistical issues.

No one thinks that anymore....

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28 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I also keep thinking about what Putin himself said back in 2014 or 2015. "If I really wanted to invade Ukraine I'd be in Kiev in 2 weeks." (not 48 hours, mind you - btw. where did that number estimate come from, does anyone know?)

Russians have prepared an article for Feb 26th in the largest state news outlet RIA Novosti and published it by mistake - where they went full nazi mode about how the war is over in just 2 days with the victorious russian army completely occupying whole Ukraine, proceeding to "solve Ukrainian question" (literally) and instating a new world order and a new 500 years old reich (by any other name).

In 2014-2015 they clearly didn't yet have as much confidence and they didn't have an approach to Kyiv from Belarus (thus far it's the only way they've managed to reach it with... Only to lose most or all their elite units in the process - VDV, spetsnaz and kadyrovites getting badly obliterated). Other ways were too fortified.

As for their plan B - there's no plan B. Their advances in the south are notable, but they entered Kherson today only by completely cancelling advances towards Mariupol and Mykolaiv - meaning they zerg rush the city and they don't have that shock force anymore to multitask in the south.

What they were doing for the past 2 days however is non-stop warcrimes - which seems to be the only thing they can do right now - terrorizing civilian population.

Which is still "better" than the ethnical cleansing russians have planned towards Ukrainians once again.

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41 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Someone will pay for this, that is for sure. De Hague is waiting.

 

 

Without getting into the weeds on this, targeting civilian buildings in and of itself, is not a violation of the law of war, context matters.

deliberately targeting civilians is a war crime.

targeting civilian buildings occupied by enemy military units or accidentally hitting civilian buildings while targeting enemy units is not.

Amnesty International always takes an extreme view of this, they also accused U.S./UK/NATO of war crimes for doing similar acts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

 

 

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Huge Russian column moving to central Ukraine from Kherson through outskirts of Mykolaiv to Kryvyi Rih direction was engaged on H11 road near Bashtanka village. Combined strike of ground and air forces stop the column, forced most of personnel to retreat. Territorial defense now hunting for them.  

Air Forces Command claimed that yesterday Russian Tu-22M3 launched 16 missiles at Kharkiv from Russian territory. In result of this strike several buildings were ruined in residential areas with dozens of killed and wounded.

Edited by Haiduk
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Just throwing this out there but do we think Putin is in the 7 stages of grief yet?

Quote

"The seven emotional stages of grief are usually understood to be shock or disbelief, denial, bargaining, guilt, anger, depression, and acceptance/hope."

Perhaps he needs a bit of counselling? 

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9 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Huge Russian column moving to central Ukraine from Kherson through outskirts of Mykolaiv to Kryvyi Rih direction was engaged on H11 road near Bashtanka village. Combined strike of ground and air forces stop the column, forced most of personnel to retreat. Territorial defense now hunting for them.  

Another "huge column". Is this the Russians deciding that their broad-front divided-into-battlegroup multitendril approach hasn't worked, so they're executing a "back to the big hammer" tactical reversion?

Good to hear the air force is still operational, and able to coordinate well with their earthbound buddies. Suggests that similar successes might be possible against the column heading for Kyiv.

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2 minutes ago, womble said:

Is this the Russians deciding that their broad-front divided-into-battlegroup multitendril approach hasn't worked, so they're executing a "back to the big hammer" tactical reversion?

I think that just too narrow terrain between Kherson and Mykolaiv (between Dnieper and Southern Bug reivers) to make any maneuvers with so large amont of combat and supply vehicles. 

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10 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Pity suicide is missing.

Quote

During an emergency General Assembly session on Monday, Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s U.N. envoy, condemned Putin’s nuclear brinkmanship. "If he wants to kill himself, he doesn't need to use a nuclear arsenal,” Kyslytsya said. “He has to do what the guy in the bunker did in Berlin in May 1945,”

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17 minutes ago, Sgt Joch said:

Without getting into the weeds on this, targeting civilian buildings in and of itself, is not a violation of the law of war, context matters.

deliberately targeting civilians is a war crime.

targeting civilian buildings occupied by enemy military units or accidentally hitting civilian buildings while targeting enemy units is not.

Amnesty International always takes an extreme view of this, they also accused U.S./UK/NATO of war crimes for doing similar acts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

 

 

Russians specifically target dense civilian areas - it's how they fight wars.

Unless every civilian is their enemy, which they certainly make sure to make very real.

Russian modus operandi is to terrorize people so they stop supporting the defenders. Grozny and Aleppo are prime examples of how russians "fight"

 

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