How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

5 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

With Germany now agreeing to supply weapons (and so also opened airspace for it) / joint EU effort, I guess all weapons enroute to Ukraine can be flown directly to Rzeszow (PL), which is not even 200km from Lviv. 

That could be decisive in the coming week.

[danfrodo]

Greetings from west coast USA.  It took me over an hour just to go through what you all have posted since I went to bed last night.  Great stuff.  I was worried that I'd find out that the Russians had thrown in their reserves and Ukraine resistance was crumbling.  I was worried they'd be too degraded and dispersed to use all the weapons on the way.  Instead I see lots of pictures of Ukrainians w powerful AT weapons.  I see Ukrainian air forces still intact to some level.  I see more & more & more evidence of destroyed russian columns -- On saturday I was worried that this was just anecdotal, but it doesn't look that way any more. 

And Steve now makes quite the case that Putin's war has nearly reached the level of disaster, and that Putin himself might not survive the repercussions. 

Meanwhile, Putin keeps talking about nukes, which I should hope would make the oligarchs or military act.  That is simply well beyond anything that anyone should be talking about.  We all wonder about about the sanctions, some folks mock them, but it's one of the tools in the tool chest.  but seeing Putin threaten nukes over sanctions kinda says he feels very threatened by them. 

Good luck to all you in Ukraine.  And my heart goes out to all the victims of this atrocity, including skinny 18 yr old russian kids who should be home playing video games and chasing girls instead of shaking w fear as POWs.

[BeondTheGrave]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I think the term we are searching for is "progressive unreality" and it happened to the US in '03 as well.

This is such a good point and a good way to frame it. I've been wondering for a few days now, I wonder what the status of the Russian General Staff and higher ranks are? Are they really the 'best and brightest' of the Russian military, or has Putin put yes men and cronies in to high ranking positions. Another tension within authoritarian regimes, having a capable military is a clear asset. BUT having a capable military is also a major threat to ones power base. Thus many dictators often trade capable military officers for safer political do-nothings who wont rock the boat. Seems to me that Putin has, at least to some extent, done the latter. 

I also wonder how much Putin had drank the Putin cool aide. In furthering the point of progressive unreality, if you believe yourself to be a strategic judo master in a world of Trumps and Merkels (again, no politics!) you might start to think that you really do know everything and know whats best. Its easy to conclude that any problems are not in conception but execution. Ukraine will fall because you have prepared to for collapse, that your strategy will work because you have set up the execution properly. An in the process you ignore the flexibility of thought and sensitivity to warning signs that developed the reputation in the first place. 

[Aragorn2002]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Greetings from west coast USA.  It took me over an hour just to go through what you all have posted since I went to bed last night.  Great stuff.  I was worried that I'd find out that the Russians had thrown in their reserves and Ukraine resistance was crumbling.  I was worried they'd be too degraded and dispersed to use all the weapons on the way.  Instead I see lots of pictures of Ukrainians w powerful AT weapons.  I see Ukrainian air forces still intact to some level.  I see more & more & more evidence of destroyed russian columns -- On saturday I was worried that this was just anecdotal, but it doesn't look that way any more. 

And Steve now makes quite the case that Putin's war has nearly reached the level of disaster, and that Putin himself might not survive the repercussions. 

Meanwhile, Putin keeps talking about nukes, which I should hope would make the oligarchs or military act.  That is simply well beyond anything that anyone should be talking about.  We all wonder about about the sanctions, some folks mock them, but it's one of the tools in the tool chest.  but seeing Putin threaten nukes over sanctions kinda says he feels very threatened by them. 

Good luck to all you in Ukraine.  And my heart goes out to all the victims of this atrocity, including skinny 18 yr old russian kids who should be home playing video games and chasing girls instead of shaking w fear as POWs.

Good summary, Dan.

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I think the term we are searching for is "progressive unreality" and it happened to the US in '03 as well.  It is where the logic gets somewhat narrowed by a set of more and more unrealistic assumptions that look realistic from inside the chamber. 

Clearly Vlad and the gang were looking for shock and awe that would paralyze the Ukrainian will to fight.  They likely built a house of cards assumptions/logic along the way that made very tenuous connections between A, B and C but once you are "inside the bubble" they become perfectly logical.   The problem is that there is no robustness to the system and if things do not go exactly as planned...well...bad.  I also smell hubris here, likely a belief that the Ukrainians would not or could not actually resist because they are "less than us".

In military or political spheres, there is nothing worse than a bad plan that is then poorly executed.  Contrast this with 2003 Iraq... bad plan that was, initially anyway, very well executed.  That early success bought time to reassess and improve the plan.  Unfortunately for everybody, "progressive unreality" nixed that.

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The bigger picture is that the world order likely shifted in the last week and we are likely into some sort of weird Second Cold War that has in reality been building for years.

I have some hope that the Second Cold war is just about over.  I very, very, very, very much want Russians to have a decent government that is (at least mostly) acting in their best interests instead of looting and oppressing them for their own personal gain.  With Putin, impossible.  With Putin gone, Russia has its third chance since 1991 of making it happen.  We can discuss how good a chance that is till the cows come home, but with Putin gone it is at least greater than 0.0%.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Greetings from west coast USA.  It took me over an hour just to go through what you all have posted since I went to bed last night.  Great stuff.  I was worried that I'd find out that the Russians had thrown in their reserves and Ukraine resistance was crumbling.  I was worried they'd be too degraded and dispersed to use all the weapons on the way.  Instead I see lots of pictures of Ukrainians w powerful AT weapons.  I see Ukrainian air forces still intact to some level.  I see more & more & more evidence of destroyed russian columns -- On saturday I was worried that this was just anecdotal, but it doesn't look that way any more. 

And Steve now makes quite the case that Putin's war has nearly reached the level of disaster, and that Putin himself might not survive the repercussions. 

Meanwhile, Putin keeps talking about nukes, which I should hope would make the oligarchs or military act.  That is simply well beyond anything that anyone should be talking about.  We all wonder about about the sanctions, some folks mock them, but it's one of the tools in the tool chest.  but seeing Putin threaten nukes over sanctions kinda says he feels very threatened by them. 

Good luck to all you in Ukraine.  And my heart goes out to all the victims of this atrocity, including skinny 18 yr old russian kids who should be home playing video games and chasing girls instead of shaking w fear as POWs.

Passing this along from a different discussion:

Mihail Fridman and Oleg Deripaska have now publicly spoken out against the war.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/war-dividing-russian-ukrainian-brothers-billionaire-fridman-says-2022-02-27/

[Sarjen]

A good move for the EU would be now to announce an EU membership perspective for Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. Thus they dont have to be invited into the NATO and still be under the EU mutual aid guarantee. Furthermore it challenges the neo-imperialist Russian elite. In view of the high popularity of Europe in Russia, it would suggest to ordinary Russians that the future of post-Soviet states is not predetermined by their common past as parts of the Tsarist and Soviet empires. And conjuring up an image of an allegedly existential security threat to the Russian nation would not easily work regarding a possible enlargement of the EU to the east.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Sarjen

[BeondTheGrave]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I have some hope that the Second Cold war is just about over.  I very, very, very, very much want Russians to have a decent government that is (at least mostly) acting in their best interests instead of looting and oppressing them for their own personal gain.  With Putin, impossible.  With Putin gone, Russia has its third chance since 1991 of making it happen.  We can discuss how good a chance that is till the cows come home, but with Putin gone it is at least greater than 0.0%.

Even without Putin there is a good chance the 2nd CW will live on. After all, dont forget that we get to do all this again next year when China invades Taiwan! 

[CHEqTRO]

It has been complete free fall for all day for the ruble. And it doesnt seem its going to stop there

[borg]

3 minutes ago, CHEqTRO said:

It has been complete free fall for all day for the ruble. And it doesnt seem its going to stop there

So - asking for myself, in all sincerity - what does it mean to the average Russian living in Russia ? Can they work, buy food and goods ? What happens to cost of living ?

[Aragorn2002]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

In military or political spheres, there is nothing worse than a bad plan that is then poorly executed.  Contrast this with 2003 Iraq... bad plan that was, initially anyway, very well executed.  That early success bought time to reassess and improve the plan.  Unfortunately for everybody, "progressive unreality" nixed that.

I have some hope that the Second Cold war is just about over.  I very, very, very, very much want Russians to have a decent government that is (at least mostly) acting in their best interests instead of looting and oppressing them for their own personal gain.  With Putin, impossible.  With Putin gone, Russia has its third chance since 1991 of making it happen.  We can discuss how good a chance that is till the cows come home, but with Putin gone it is at least greater than 0.0%.

Steve

Imagine a democratic and stable Russia as part of the EU. We could perform miracles together. 

My (Afghan) wife adores Russia. I'm sorry for her about everything that's going on. She's really suffering. So no politics in our house. Fortunately I can blow off some steam here.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[Sarjen]

Bayraktar TB-2 mission.

https://twitter.com/Ukraine_AF/status/1498006827459657740

 

https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/1498006718210527232/pu/vid/362x640/HwQbwrcEahzlJhUT.mp4?tag=12

 

Edited February 27, 2022 by Sarjen

[danfrodo]

Good points above.  My takes:

1.  I think this probably makes china much less likely to invade taiwan, especially if it causes Putin to fall.  Besides, they could just lop cruise missiles until Taiwan negotiates away some chunk of what China wants.  Then repeat in ~10 years and get even more.

2.  I am going to optimistically hope that for the first time in modern Russian history they could have a new gov't that is not built on jingoistic, nationalist zealotry pushed by thuggish mass murdering monsters.  A govt that actually works to make the economy work for everyone.  And can actually be a trusted partner for trade.  If that could happen and last for a while, just think how different the world could be.  If Russia wants to lessen percieved NATO, long lasting peace is the cheap and easy way to do it.

[Kraft]

Hell on earth.

 

Also happy to see more TB2 footage (the 3rd strike in Ukraine, not counting the misinformation Syria footage), I assumed they were all but destroyed on Day 1.

[danfrodo]

ooops, my post went out before I saw Aragorn's.  I could just liked his and saved some typing.

[George MC]

Thread about Russian AFVs that have driven off bridges. 

 

[Aragorn2002]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

ooops, my post went out before I saw Aragorn's.  I could just liked his and saved some typing.

It's never too late, Dan...

[akd]

4 minutes ago, Sarjen said:

Bayraktar TB-2 mission.

https://twitter.com/Ukraine_AF/status/1498006827459657740

Looks like second weapon release following previous strike on Buk linked above.

[Bulletpoint]

One thing that surprises me watching those drone strikes is how much the Russians are bunching up.. It's like they have received no training whatsoever.

All armies in WW2 were acutely aware of the threat of air attacks, but now, in our modern age, where airpower is so much more deadly and precise, it's like these soldiers have never given it a thought.

[womble]

One relief in the accounts so far of this war is that the Russian troops on the ground have remained pretty humane in their treatment of the civilians they've encountered. Whether that's just inherent to the new professional army, or RoE for the conflict (wisely posted in these days of universal coverage that would have a good chance of rapidly disseminating accounts of any "atrocity"), it's a Good Thing (as far as anything good can come out of the cluster that this all is).

Also: where's the infantry?! So many AFVs appearing in videos with no little friends to watch their flanks or provide security against threats that a tank can only deal with in a messy way. In the situation Russia's in, you almost need a platoon of riot police in every infantry formation to clear away civilians.

[Haiduk]

"Azov" near Mariupol disabled next BMP-3 (or it was traditionally abandoned after short contact)

 

[Aragorn2002]

4 minutes ago, George MC said:

Thread about Russian AFVs that have driven off bridges. 

 

Can't help it, but that's SO funny.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Aragorn2002

[akd]

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

"Azov" near Mariupol disabled next BMP-3 (or it was traditionally abandoned after short contact)

 

Note these guys were worried about putting simple single letters on their rides and just decided to write “RUS” on the sides to avoid confusion.

Edited February 27, 2022 by akd

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, borg said:

So - asking for myself, in all sincerity - what does it mean to the average Russian living in Russia ? Can they work, buy food and goods ? What happens to cost of living ?

The impacts for some are instant, but overall this takes time.  Anything imported, even if it is allowed under sanctions, will become much more expensive.  Any domestic produced item that competed against these goods will now become much more expensive because of supply and demand rules.

For example, a huge container ship full of cars was seized by  France (IIRC) on Friday.  Those cars would have gone to the Russian market, now Russians who would have purchased them are going to have to try and buy ones already in the country, driving up the price.  As the supply of unsold vehicles dwindles, the price goes up further.

This is just one example.

3 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Imagine a democratic and stable Russia as part of the EU. We could perform miracles together. 

Yes.  And even an autocratic Russia, that did not invest all its foreign capital on screwing with its neighbors, would be a huge improvement.

Steve

[akd]

6 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

One thing that surprises me watching those drone strikes is how much the Russians are bunching up.. It's like they have received no training whatsoever.

All armies in WW2 were acutely aware of the threat of air attacks, but now, in our modern age, where airpower is so much more deadly and precise, it's like these soldiers have never given it a thought.

Russia claims they have destroyed more TB-2s than Ukraine has. They seem to have a severe problem with believing their own manufactured reality and conforming to it operationally.

Edited February 27, 2022 by akd